Gonzalez Cleared to Swing the Bat

In case anybody missed this earlier today.

Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports that Adrian Gonzalez has been cleared to start swinging the bat.  According to the report, Gonzalez was examined by team medical director, Dr. Tom Ginn on Friday, and was reported to have "full range of motion, no tenderness, and excellent strength" in the surgically repaired shoulder.  After a discussion with Dr. Altchek, the man who performed surgery on his torn labrum this past fall, the two sides agreed that Gonzalez was ready to take the next step in his rehab.

Earlier this morning, Gonzalez took that next step by taking 20 swings off of a tee, and apparently he did not hold back.

"I didn't hold back," said Gonzalez. "I took good healthy swings and I felt fine. You're waiting to see if you feel something different, and I didn't, so it was a good sign."

Over the next three days, Gonzalez will continue to take swings off of the tee.  If all goes well, there's a chance the training staff could clear him to start taking live batting practice by early next week.  While there's no word as to when Gonzalez will make an appearance during the Grapefruit League schedule, he is expected to be 100% ready to contribute by Opening Day on April 1st.

Clearly, this is great news for both the team and Red Sox fans.  Gonzalez is considered by most to be the acquisition that tipped the balance of power in the AL East away from the Yankees.  In 2010, Gonzalez put together an All-Star caliber season posting a .378 wOBA with 5.3 WAR and Fielding Bible Award quality defense, while with the Padres.  Many figure his numbers to improve this season after moving from the pitching friendly environment of Petco Park to Fenway Park, a park known to heavily advantage hitters.

Dancing Around the A-Gon Contract Situation

As many of you probably remember, soon after the Red Sox finalized the Adrian Gonzalez trade with the Padres, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the two sides had secretly come to terms on a seven year contract extension worth $154M.  According to sources, both parties agreed to wait until after Opening Day to announce the deal in order to avoid paying the competitive balance tax.  While the report was vehemently disputed by both Adrian Gonzalez and key members of Red Sox leadership, the rumors persisted.

This past Tuesday, deep within column on Albert Pujols trade possibilities, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports mentioned that a few sources had confirmed Nightengale’s original report.  The only difference was the amount of money involved in the deal.

“Then there are the Red Sox. Sources say they are set to sign Gonzalez to a seven-year, $164 million extension, but will wait until after Opening Day to announce the deal, enabling them to save on the luxury tax.”

Not surprisingly, Theo Epstein denied the rumors that the Red Sox were “set to sign” Gonzalez to a contract.  While he didn’t specifically address Rosenthal’s report, he did indicate there was “mutual good faith” between the two parties that would hopefully allow for smooth negotiations.  With Adrian Gonzalez having already reported to Spring Training, there’s a good chance negotiations will ramp up the in next couple of weeks potentially leading to an agreement.

To read more of my thoughts on Adrian Gonzalez’s value, check out my latest article (posted Friday at 8:00 a.m.) for Fire Brand of the American League.

A-Gon Makes Quite the Promise

ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes reports that there were some interesting outcomes from the 24-hour negotiating window between Boston and newly acquired All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. 

During the exclusive 24-hour negotiating window, the Red Sox and Gonzalez built a basic framework for a long term extension.  While Gonzalez passed his physical, the Red Sox still had concerns regarding Gonzalez's surgically repaired shoulder.  Due the labrum surgery he had only seven weeks prior, Gonzalez not able to swing a bat before March 1st at the earliest.  The Red Sox, having just traded four prospects to the Padres in exchange for A-Gon, wanted to make sure he was still the same player post-surgery as he was pre-surgery.  Rather than take an unnecessary financial risk, the front office decided it was best to hold off on finalizing a contract until he could prove he was fully healthy.

Additionally, the Red Sox wanted protection against the potential market place changes that could occur over the next couple of months should Albert Pujols agree to a new contract with Cardinals.  If Pujols managed to pull down $30M per season, the last thing the Red Sox wanted was for Gonzalez to inform the club that the price for his services had just gone up.  That would be a huge blow to the Red Sox considering they would've essentially given up four promising young players for what would amount to be a one year rental.  Gonzalez, being the stand up guy he is, had a solution:

“That was one of their comments, what if he gets this humongous deal and you want to be closer to him?” Gonzalez said. “I said, ‘Trust me. What the market is today might change by then, but we’re going to negotiate based on what the market is today.”’

This is a refreshing move by Gonzalez.  How many other players can you invision making similar concessions?  My guess is not many.  This is a unique situation.

So what does this gesture say on the part of Gonzalez?  On one hand, it shows his commitment and desire to play for the Red Sox.  On the other, I can't help but wonder if he's being a bit foolish.  There is plenty of money to be made on the free agent market in 2011-2012, especially if Pujols were to sign a monster deal prior the start of the offseason. 

Either way, I'm glad he's on the Red Sox.  He seems to get it.  While he's still focused on making sure he gets paid, he wants to do it in a manner that benefits both parties.  That's a rarity in today's sporting environment.

Shhh...Don't Tell Anyone but Red Sox and Gonzalez may have a Secret Deal

The Red Sox and Adrian Gonzalez have come to terms on a 7 year $154M contract...but please don't ask them about it because it's on the down low.  Both parties have agreed not to finalize the deal until April, so the Red Sox can avoid a potential luxury tax penalty.  Apparently, they didn't tell everyone to keep their mouth shut, as a few club officials decided to share the news with the media.

On one hand, I'm incredibly impressed.  As a Red Sox fan, I'm glad they're trying to minimize the amount of wasted revenue (i.e. luxury tax revenue).  The money saved on having to pay a luxury tax could be used to fill other needs either later this offseason or at the July 31st trading deadline.  On the other hand, I can't get past the fact they're obviously exploiting a huge loophole in the rules.  It's not only blatantly dishonest but also not in the spirit of competitive balance.  The Commissioner's office should probably look into closing the loophole during the next round of Collective Bargaining.  

NBC Hardball Talk's Craig Calcaterra says it best, "When the game is being so transparently rigged, it’s time to change the rules of the game."  Complete agreed.  Unfortunately, Bud Selig won't do anything to change the rules unless there's some public relations or financial benefit that compels him to do so.

Game On! A-Gon to Red Sox Back On

I've been away from the computer all day, so forgive me for not being on top of all of today's news.  Let's recap:

2:45 pm:  Jon Heyman reports the deal fell through.

2:55 pm:  Heyman adds that Gonzalez was looking for an 8 year deal, while the Red Sox preferred a 6 year deal.  The Red Sox couldn't have been surprised by A-Gon's request.  Pretty much every rumor over the past few months has had him looking for a contract similar to either Mark Teixeira or Ryan Howard. 

3:00 pm:  Ken Rosenthal reports while the Red Sox might still make the deal, they're apprehensive about giving up that many prospects for what might amount to being a one year rental.  While I agree with this sentiment to an extent, I only agree if it's unlikely either side will come to terms.

3:25 pm:  Jon Paul Morosi tweets the deal "is not done yet".

3:45 pm:  Morosi adds it's better than a 50/50 chance the deal will not get completed.

7:44 pm:  Peter Abraham reports that not only is A-Gon still in Boston, but the trade may go through without a contract in place.

8:00 pm:  Jon Heyman reports the A-Gon for Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes has been finalized.  While there isn't an extension at this point, the Red Sox are confident one can be worked out. 

(Special thanks to Drew Silva of NBC's Hardball Talk for posting a lot of the links I used above.  His work made my work easier.)

So there you have it.  It's been a whirlwind day on the A-Gon/Red Sox front.  The Red Sox had to finalize this trade.  Theo Epstein has coveted Gonzalez for years.  He's the middle of the order power bat they've sorely needed for the last three seasons.  With Jayson Werth off of the market (more on that later), the Red Sox knew that their quest for Carl Crawford had just gotten exponentially more difficult.  Finalizing this deal does quite a bit to balancing the power balance between the Yankees and Red Sox.

Theo Finally Gets his Man

UPDATE (12/4/2010 @ 5:50p.m.):  Ken Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox negotiating window expires at 2:00 p.m. tomorrow.  Word is that he's looking for a 7-8 year deal worth $20-23M per season, which is similar to what the Yankees gave Teixeira two years ago.  I'd be shocked if this didn't get done.

4:45 p.m.:   The package for Gonzalez has been confirmed.  The Padres will get pitcher Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, outfielder Raymond Fuentes, and a player to be named later.

Not a bad haul for A-Gon.  I'm pretty high on Kelly.  He's a potential ace or number two starter with great stuff.  He's only 21, and he'll probably continue to improve.  Rizzo has Mark Grace written all over him.  That's nice, but he's not someone I want starting first base.  Fuentes is a speedy centerfielder, but he strikes out way too much for my liking.

9:00 p.m.:  ESPN Boston reports the Padres have agreed in principle to trade for All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.  No word on who the Red Sox are trading away, but minor league prospects Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo are expected to be the centerpieces of the deal.  Adrian Gonzalez is expected to be in Boston today for a physical.  Assuming he passes his physical, the trade should become official.  Major League Baseball has approved a negotiating window for the Red Sox to work out a long-term extension with Gonzalez.

Acquiring Gonzalez does a few things for the Red Sox:  (1) he gives them a solid, reliable middle of the order power bat; (2) this moves Youkilis across the diamond from first to third; (3) gives the Red Sox an opportunity to focus their attention on signing Crawford; and (4) effectively ends Beltre's tenure in Boston.  It will be interesting to see how this trade affects Beltre's contract prospects going forward.

A Moment of Silence for a Fallen Comrade

One of the saddest things in this world is watching a commodity past its peak. It is our nature to deny our own decay and carry on long beyond the point of one's prime. Whether it is Weezer's dogged insistence on making music after the Green Album or Jack Nicholson/Al Pacino/Robert Deniro's glazed, disinterested look in basically every movie any of them has made since I was legally old enough to drive, we very rarely, if ever, know when to quit. Fire Brand of the American League is a blog dedicated to Red Sox coverage and was a well written and well developed medium for discussion for some time. Unfortunately, this can hardly be considered true anymore. An article posted on November 11th entitled, The Red Sox Should not Trade for Adrian Gonzalez, stands a shining microcosm of all things wrong this site at present.

I don't want to ruin the surprise for you but the author, Tom Fratamico, does not believe that Adrian Gonzalez is an appropriate candidate for trade. He believes this because his career comps are not promising, because he is not an adequate return for our valued prospects, and because we would not be "buying any of A-Gone’s seasons on right side of thirty." He also explicitly states that A-Gone is a riskier projection in 2012 and beyond than Fielder. There are so many inaccuracies and ignored factors in this article that I am forced to rebut them all David Letterman style with a Top Ten List.

Top Ten Issues I have with this article

10) Ignores the fact that the dearth of available third baseman this offseason renders the movement of Youkilis and the acquiring of a premium option at first base the only significant manner in which Theo Epstein could improve the team's infield.
9) Describes Gonzalez as the riskier player despite the fact that Fielder considers eating an entire roast suckling pig a light snack.
8) Glosses over the significant defensive advantage Gonzalez holds over Fielder
7) Ignores signability issues for Fielder in 2011 that are a given due to his agent
6) Does not acknowledge that Gonzalez has spent the past few seasons playing in a statistically dampening stadium with Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley, and David Eckstein as wing men.
5) Does not offer statistical evidence of any kind to support his contentions that "the pair have put up similar production with the wood." and that "Fielder also appears to be less of a risk with the stick going forward"
4) References Red Sox's valuable prospects in the article. Who are these prospects and where are they hiding them? Lars Anderson looks like he purchased Andy Marte's career arc on EBay, Felix Doubront is apparently Venezuelan for Brian Rose, and Jose Iglesias and Anthony Rizzo are at least two years away from major league relevance. When the great white hope for my team are a pitcher who just decided he might consider pitching full time and an outfielder whose career upside mirrors that of Ben Francisco, I fail to see how valuable these prospects can be.
3) The use of the phrase "assuming Pujols stays in St. Louis", as if it is not a foregone conclusion that he would either be a Cardinal or be given the GDP of Suriname to join the Yankees if he ever left the gateway to the west.
2) The author's repeated assumption that there is no way the Red Sox could acquire either player any time before 2012. There are more than one window for the Red Sox to acquire the player of their choice prior to the 2012 season.
1) The author's use of historical comparisons to devalue a player. Historical comparisons are at best a curiousity or a discussion point not a significant argument against a player's ability. Oh and for the record, I can cherry pick through Pujols' comps and say that his similarity to Todd Helton, Juan Gonzlez, and Jim Edmonds does not bode well for his future.

There, I feel much now having got that off my chest. For those who would argue that any one can have a bad moment, the site's latest article discusses alternatives to Adrian Beltre and suggests we pick up either the human strike out machine, Mark Reynolds or Alex Gordon. I mean any time you can replace an 8 WAR player with one who is not good enough to start for that glorified Double A team in Kansas City, you have to do it right? Right? I think it is best we all assume that the site was acquired in a hostile takeover by Dan Shaughnessy and Murray Chass and just find somewhere else to get information on Red Sox baseball.

Report: Major Power Outage Expected to Hit San Diego in 2012

Well, this isn’t at all surprising:

The agent for Adrian Gonzalez says it's "pretty much a fait accompli" that the Padres slugger will test the free-agent market after the 2011 season.

(snip)

Hoyer says the type of contract Gonzalez will seek in free agency is something that only a handful of markets can support, "and San Diego is not one of them."

This was only a matter of time.  Adrian Gonzalez’s incredibly team friendly contract is up at the end of the 2011 season.  Understandably, he wants to test the free agent market, and explore his options.  This is, of course, great for him because he’s going to get a huge Mark Teixeira sized contract out of it.  It’s bad for San Diego because there’s a slightly greater than a non-zero percent chance that he’ll re-sign with the Padres.  The question is, what do Padres do?  Well, as I see it, they have three options:

1. Trade him during the offseason.
2. Trade him at or around the July 31^st trading deadline.
3. Don’t trade him at all, and recoup two compensation draft picks.

None of these options are as good as keeping him and re-signing him.  As I said, that’s not going to happen, so we can’t include that as an option.  I would throw option number three out right now.  The draft picks are nice, but fans don’t really understand the value of future draft picks.  Plus, I’m not sure Padres owner Jeff Moorad would be comfortable not getting more immediate compensation for his best player. 

That leaves options one and two.  San Diego GM, Jed Hoyer, needs to determine when it’s most beneficial for him to trade Gonzalez.  If the best time to trade Gonzalez is during the offseason (when another team could be granted a 48 hour window with which to negotiate a long term deal with him), then the Padres need to make a deal in the near future.  On the flip side, if he can extract the most value by trading him to some desperate team at the trading deadline, then he should wait for that moment.

Everyone knows what needs to be done.  Now, it’s all about timing, and finding the right trading partner.  Whatever happens (whenever it happens), Hoyer needs to hit the nail on the head with this trade.  His success in San Diego depends on it.