The Countdown is Over

The Albert Pujols negotiating window has officially expired.  Last night, there was word from SI’s Jon Heyman that the Cardinals had offered Pujols an eight year deal with an average annual salary that was “south of $30M.”  A couple of hours later, a source close to the Pujols camp spoke to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports and decried the rumors as “inaccurate, reckless and outrageous.”  So much for confidentiality…

Based on a report by ESPN’s Buster Olney earlier this morning, it appears the two sides may’ve stopped negotiating a few days ago.

"Pujols contract talks are over. Deadline will pass without a deal. Have not been proposals swapped in last 100 hours or so."

At this point, it’s irrelevant when the two sides last swapped proposals.  All that matters is that the deadline has passed, and negotiations have ceased.  Barring any unforeseen development, Pujols will become a free agent for the first time this winter.

Cardinals Offer Pujols 8-Year Contract

Goonies never say die, and apparently neither do the Cardinals. 
 
According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Cardinals have made an eight year contract offer to superstar first baseman Albert Pujols.  While details of the proposal aren't known, Heyman's confirmed that the offer was for less than $30M per season.  With only 15 hours remaining in the negotiating window, prospects of a deal coming together appear bleak. Still, it's important to note that deals like this frequently come together quickly at the last moment. 

One interesting thing to note.  According to Heyman, Pujols's negotiating team, at one point, "asked for piece of the team."  While this isn't technically possible, it's incredibly complicated, and would likely need buy in from the Players Union.  Understandably, the Cardinals declined. 

Pujols has been reported to be seeking a ten year $275M contract on par with the one Alex Rodriguez received from the Yankees after the 2007 season.  The deadline to sign Pujols is noon on Wednesday.

Pujols Turns Down Cardinals Proposal

UPDATE (2/14/2011 at 11:35 a.m.):  Albert Pujols has decided to push his deadline back by one day to Wednesday at 12:00 p.m. ET.  Cardinals shouldn’t read too much into this.  The only reason Pujols extended the deadline was to ensure he didn’t overshadow Cardinal legend Stan Musial.   Musial is scheduled to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Obama on Tuesday.    

Original Post (2/14/2011 at 10:00 a.m.):  Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that an anonymous source has informed him Albert Pujols rejected the Cardinals latest (or first) contract proposal.  The source went on to say that Pujols is expected formally announce his intentions to close negotiations on Tuesday.  Barring any unexpected changes in events, talks won’t resume until after the season.  There’s no word as to what the Cardinals might have offered.

While I understand Pujols’s motivation for ceasing contract talks, I think it’s foolish for him to think this won’t be a distraction.  It’s going to be.  This doesn’t just end because Pujols wants it to end.  In fact, his reluctance to discuss the situation only fuels speculation.  In fact, once he announces his intentions on Tuesday, the real fun for the media begins--if it hasn’t already.  They’ll ask questions like:  Are Pujols’s demands unreasonable?  Is he putting himself ahead of the team by looking for A-Rod money?  Where will he land if he becomes a free agent?  What’s the extent of the potential backlash if he leaves?  Is the relationship between Pujols and DeWitt beyond repair?  Does Pujols really want to leave St. Louis?  And so on…  Every day, there will be a new story printed or posted that has a different angle on the situation.  He’ll field multiple questions from mumerous reporters all asking him about his situation and intentions after the season. While Pujols has already stated that he doesn’t intend to answer said questions, he’ll have to get used to fielding and deflecting them.

Furthermore, the distraction won’t be limited to just Pujols.  This situation has a wide-reaching impact on both his teammates and coaching staff as well.  Daily, each one of them will be asked questions about the manner in which Pujols’s contract situation is affecting the team.  While most of them will remain quiet, what happens if one of his teammates not only decides to anonymously speak to a reporter, but also makes disparaging remarks about the All-Star first baseman?  Can you imagine the scandal and clubhouse turmoil?  Talk about a distraction!  While this scenario is unlikely, all it takes is one disgruntled teammate to magnify an already overblown situation.

Ultimately, Pujols needs to do what he feels is best for both himself and the team.  He’s made his decision, and now he has to live with the consequences.  As someone who has neither been, nor never will be in his position, I refuse to pass judgment.  I only hope he’s considered all of the angles. 

One GM Confident Pujols Deal Will Get Done

While most baseball executives, media types, bloggers, and insiders think it's a foregone conclusion that Pujols hits free agency next winter, at least one GM thinks the Cardinals will re-sign by Pujols's self-imposed February 16th deadline.  In Nick Carfardo's Sunday morning column (this should be required reading for all baseball fans), he caught up with a "General Manager from a larger market" who has very little doubt that the two sides will eventually reach an agreement.

“They should stick to a number that makes sense for them, and if it’s not good enough, then you walk away,’’ said a general manager in a larger market. “He may be the brand in St. Louis, but you have to do what’s best for your organization.

“Think of what you could do with that money. Will you ever find a Pujols? No. But you can find 50 percent of him and use the other 50 percent to enhance your team in other areas.

“What will happen is, they’ll get it done. The Cardinals aren’t a small-market team, so they’re in that area where they probably have to do it because not doing it would create chaos and possible loss of revenue. But once in a while, you do something bold and think outside the box.’’

I agree.  This is basically what I've been arguing all along.  The Cardinals have been trying to position themselves as a small market club in the Pujols negotiations, and it's not really a fair comparison.  According to Forbes magazine's most recent appraisal of baseball clubs (April 2010), the Cardinals were named the eighth most valuable franchise (and ninth in terms of revenue) in the game, sandwiched between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the San Francisco Giants.  With a revenue stream of a mid-to-high end franchise, they certainly have the ability to construct a larger payroll without putting themselves at risk of financial insolvency.  They just choose not to, which is their right.  Still, I can't help but wonder if they've considered the potential loss in revenue (attendance, merchandising, concessions, TV ratings, etc.) that would result from Pujols's departure.  That should play a key role in determining whether or not to increase their offer to Pujols down the line.

I honestly believe that the two sides will eventually get something done.  The Cardinals front office has been playing it perfectly when it comes to staying true to the confidentiality agreement regarding the Pujols negotiations.  While there have been some reports, albeit somewhat vague, that have been played out in the media, it hasn't turned into the three ring circus in which the Derek Jeter negotiations evolved.   As a result, we don't know how big of a gap there is between the two parties.  Pujols is thought to be looking for an A-Rod type deal (10/$275M), while the Cardinals are believed to not be interested in extending Pujols beyond six or seven years.  There's been no word on the average annual salary the Cardinals are willing to give Pujols. 

Ultimately, both sides will need to make concessions in terms of salary and the length of the contract in order to get a deal done.  With only a few days remaining before Pujols arrives in camp, the likelihood of an agreement is pretty grim. 

Holliday's Altruistic Gesture is Nice, but Not Enough

Christmas was almost two months ago, but Matt Holliday appears to still be in the spirit of giving.  On ESPN Radio's Mike and Mike this morning, Holliday told fill-in Doug Gottleib that he'd be willing to defer a significant portion of his annual salary to help the Cardinals retain Albert Pujols.

"I deferred $2 million a year for the whole contract," Holliday told Doug Gottlieb on the show, "and I would be willing, if they came to me and said, 'Hey, this is what it's going to take to get Albert done, would you do it again or do more?' Scott [Boras, Holliday's agent] probably wouldn't like me to stay that, but if that's what it took, I would be willing to do that."

A couple of things come to mind.

Number one.  Holliday made it very clear that he hasn't been approached by the Cardinals front office regarding this scenario.  This was his idea, and his idea alone.  It's purely hypothetical at this point. 

Secondly, Holliday is already deferring $2M of his annual $17M salary each year through 2016.  Realistically, how much more is he willing to defer to ensure Pujols stays with the Cardinals?  $3M a year?  $5M a year?  Doubtful, but that's how much it would probably take to make a realistic impact.

Let's just assume for a second that Holliday agrees to defer an additional $4M per season, thus bringing his annual salary down to $11M.  While the additional money available certainly helps bridge the gap financially, it only solves the lesser of the two major issues keeping Pujols and the Cardinals from coming to an agreement.  The biggest difference between the two parties is not the average annual salary, but the length of the contract itself.  Pujols and Lozano have been pretty rigid in their demands for a ten year deal.  The Cardinals, on the other hand, would prefer to keep it to six or seven years.  How the two parties bridge that gap, I'm not sure.  I can say with all certainty that no amount of deferred salary (whether Holliday's or others) will put a dent in the philosophical differences between the two sides when it comes to contract length.

Matt Holliday's gesture is incredibly altruistic, but likely won't have any impact as to whether Pujols re-signs or chooses to seek employment elsewhere via free agency.

Cardinals Fans to God: "You’re Kidding, Right?"

UPDATE (2/9/2011 at 7:22 p.m.):  According to SI's Jon Heyman, there is "virtually no chance" of the Cardinals and Pujols coming to terms before the February 16th deadline.  The two sides are still incredibly far apart with Pujols looking for 10/$275M, while the Cardinals are looking to keep it at six or seven years.  

Original Post (2/9/2011 at 4:37 p.m.):  Do you remember the Albert Pujols contract “Dooms Day” clock I linked to this past weekend?  Well, it looks like we may have to take whatever time is remaining on that clock, and subtract three full days. 

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, Albert Pujols will be reporting to Spring Training on February 16^th, not February 19^th as originally expected.  For you math majors out there, that leaves the Cardinals with only six days to negotiate a contract with Pujols.  Otherwise, he’ll become a free agent after the end of the season.  As I’m sure you can imagine, just knowing Pujols could possibly become a free agent has Cardinals fans so nervous they’re biting their fingernails down to the cuticle.  After reading Brown’s article, they’ll probably transition from biting their fingernails, and move to lighting their hair on fire.

“All indications suggest that Pujols and the team that drafted him a dozen years ago are not close to an agreement, and that eight days won’t be time enough to negotiate and consummate not only the richest contract in club history, but possibly the richest in the history of the game. As of the weekend, the Cardinals hadn’t made a concrete offer.”

So let me get this straight.  The Cardinals have been negotiating with Pujols on and off since last winter, and still haven’t made him a “concrete offer”?  Really?  What are they doing?  Biding their time?  I don’t get it.  It makes me wonder if the Cardinals are really taking these negotiations seriously.

Also, I have to ask.  How did this information get leaked?  Didn’t Dan Lozano (Pujols’s agent) and Cardinals CEO Bill Dewitt make a pact to keep the negotiations private?  Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk had an interesting take on the situation.

"As Brown notes, Pujols has issued a virtual fatwah on negotiations through the media.  The Cardinals have said a bit more here and there. But this news — no offer made — doesn’t exactly help the Cardinals in the court of public opinion, so I question whether that would have come from them. It might help Pujols though. Probably would, actually, if fans get mad because they think the team isn’t making a hard push to lock up the best player most of them have ever cheered for.  Makes me wonder if Pujols — or his agent —  has changed tactics and is starting to leak a bit.  And if so, does that mean that the conversations between the sides have gotten rough?"

If Craig's right, and he frequently is about these kinds of things, the Pujols negotiations are about to get all Derek Jeter uncomfortable up in here.  That's never a good thing.  Well, unless you're a blogger, and then it's the greatest thing in the world.

The Hardest Part is Knowing When to Let Go

Albert Pujols is likely the greatest baseball player many of us will ever have the pleasure of watching in our lifetime. I know that is not the most controversial statement I have ever made on this site (Minnesota Twins, anyone?). However, as we move closer to the Pujols designated end of negotiations, it has become clear that the hometown discount given in his previous 7 year, 100 million dollar contract will not be in effect this time around. Numbers as high as 300 million for the next ten seasons have been discussed by reputable writers at mainstream sites. In light of these numbers, it would seem that the time has come for St. Louis to make the difficult but necessary move and allow Albert to find another home after the 2011 season.

The St Louis Cardinals, despite their prominent stature within the game, have never been one of the high end teams in terms of payroll. The Cardinals' did not break the 100 million dollar barrier until 2011 and had the 13th highest payroll in baseball in the 2009-2010 per both Cot's Baseball Contracts and CBSSports.com. They are on the hook for 17 million per season for Matt Holliday until the beginning of the second term of the Palin administration (keep your fingers crossed on that one kids, for the comedy value if nothing else). Adam Wainwright has two cost effective team options for 2012 and 2013 for a combined 21 million but will also be in line for a significant increase when the next contract gets signed. I think it is safe to say that as a 31 year old elite starting pitcher the absolute lowest yearly figure for Wainwright would work out to somewhere in the 16 to 18 million dollar range. I am assuming a minimum yearly figure of 25 million a year when all is said and done for Pujols. Conservatively, this would leave the Cardinals committing 58 million dollars a year for only three players through 2016 at the minimum. This troika would consume almost 50 percent of the team's working budget making the fielding of a competitive team almost impossible.

The second issue with this contract lies with the expected performance of Albert Pujols' over the assumed life of the contract. In a previous blog post, "Pujols Negotiation not Going Well", Chip referenced an article by Dave Cameron that estimated Pujols WAR over a ten year contract to be 42.5. Cameron arrived at this number by estimating Pujols' WAR for this season and applying a standard 1/2 win regression for each year of the contract. He also estimates the total value of these wins at 267.5 Million dollars, a figure that would seem to justify the numbers sought by Pujols. However, it is exceedingly rare, for a player to receive a contract that exactly mirrors their value to their team as too many economic and perceptual variables exist to prevent this from happening. For example, Joey Votto, a player with an almost identical WAR in 2010, just received a contract with a yearly value of 12.6 million dollars. This contract pays him almost 17 million dollars a year less than his value to the team in 2010-11. Evan Longoria would be able to buy Wyoming with the difference between his actual contract and his value to the Tampa Bay Rays since 2008.

Additionally, we as baseball fans, have become smarter over time. We know that a player's prime years fall between 25-30 years old. Pujols would begin his 10 year deal at the age of 32. This is assuming that his birth certificate did not receive the Danny Almonte treatment some time before his arrival in 2001. There is no evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, to indicate any duplicity in Pujols' stated age but one does have to bring up concerns like these when dealing with Latin American players. Stricter rules against amphetamines and other PED's have restored the usual career arc for even elite baseball players. The likelihood of a 39 year old slugger like Barry Bonds (Pujols' best career comp and his only real competition for the title of greatest player of our lifetime) hitting 45 homers and posting 10 WAR again is almost nonexistent. It does not behoove the Cardinals to make the same mistake the Yankees' did with the most recent A-Rod contract. This is especially true as the Cardinals don't have the 100 million dollar buffer in payroll that the Yankees possess on a yearly basis.

Albert Pujols is the face of the Cardinals' franchise and a potential all time great. However, that does not mean that you sign him to a 10 year, 250 million dollar contract when that contract would cripple your team economcially and serve only to purchase the declining years of that player. If you make a mistake of that magnitude with a payroll like the Cardinals, you can all but end your team's ability to contend for several seasons.

P.S., For the record, I hate Titanic more than almost anyone. However, the picture fits the theme of knowing when to let go and has the awesome secondary benefit of allowing me to post a Titanic reference on a blog of Chip's creation.

Pujols Negotiations Not Going Well

UPDATE (2/5/2011 at 6:55 p.m.):  If you want to see how much Cardinals fans are freaking out about the possibility of life without Pujols, check this link out.  Compliments of D.J. Short of Hardball Talk.

Original Post (2/5/2011 at 5:49 p.m.):  With less than two weeks remaining until the end of the Pujols contract extension season, one would hope the two parties are making strides toward coming to terms on a contract extension.  According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, "discussions are not going well."

"Contract talks are fluid, and a breakthrough toward a record extension might be only one phone call away. But the Cardinals are balking at Pujols’ price, sources say, increasing the possibility that Pujols will become a free agent at the end of the 2011 season...Sources paint an increasingly pessimistic view of the negotiations...While the Cardinals are making a sincere attempt to complete a deal, they are not in as strong a financial position as other clubs in larger markets. The team is frustrated that Pujols’ aggressive negotiating stance does not match his public declarations of loyalty. Pujols, however, has been paid below market value for virtually his entire career."

While I understand that these deals can come together rather quickly and unexpectedly, I don't have high hopes for that happening here.  The last report I saw (via Jon Heyman from SI) was that the two sides were as much as three years and $70-$100M apart.  With both sides agreeing to keep contract talks confidential, there's no word as to whether they've gotten any closer over the last couple of weeks.  Based on Rosenthal's report, I'm going to guess they haven't.

I'm a little taken aback by the Cardinals frustration with Pujols's "aggressive" negotiating stance.  While I can understand why they might have hoped he was a little less rigid in his demands, his stance is anything but disloyal.  As a baseball player that's been grossly underpaid for the entirety of his career, Pujols is only trying to be paid fair market value for his production.  The Cardinals, on the other hand, seem to have this notion that Pujols should be grateful and accept whatever contract they offer him.  I'm sorry, but loyalty in this situation doesn't just lie with the player, it lies with the team as well.  While Pujols is likely reduce his price to fit within the team's economic parameters, the Cardinals need to realize Pujols is a special situation, and typical negotiating tactics don't apply.  We're talking about one of the greatest players in baseball history, not an All-Star first baseman.  Offering him Mark Teixeira or Ryan Howard money is, quite frankly, insulting to a player of Pujols's caliber. 

So how much will Pujols be worth over the next ten seasons?  Dave Cameron of Fangraphs did an excellent piece a few weeks ago, where he determined just that.  According to Cameron:

"Let’s start with the working assumption that wins are currently being priced at about $5 million apiece this winter. For his career, Pujols has averaged +7.1 WAR per 600 PA...Let’s project him as a +7 win player for 2011, just to play it safe. You could argue for a bit higher number, but this will at least give us a baseline...If we use the standard half-win-decrease-per-year aging curve, our ten year projection for Pujols would have him producing +47.5 wins between now and 2020. But he’s already under contract for 2011, so we should remove that from the equation, and just focus on 2012 and beyond. A deal that took him through 2021 would produce an expected +42.5 WAR, and if we assume a steady rate of 5% salary inflation, the value of those wins would be $267 million."

That's right folks.  Cameron projects him at $267M for the next ten years.  I can't say I disagree with him either, although I had his value a little bit higher because I used a slightly higher performance baseline.  Either way, it's pretty clear that Pujols's demands are pretty reasonable.  Just for fun, I did an accumulative WAR graph (compliments of Fangraphs) between Pujols, Gonzalez, Howard, and Teixeira.*

*  I couldn't fit Fielder on the graph, but through five-plus seasons, he's accumulated 20.3 fWAR.  This would put him 26.7 fWAR behind Pujols at the same age.

When compare him to supposedly similar comps (i.e. Teixeira, Gonzalez, Howard, Fielder), it becomes even more obvious that Pujols is in a class of his own.   To me, it's pretty clear.  Pujols is absolutely deserving of the contract he's seeking from the Cardinals.  If the Cardinals want to retain him, they're going to have to show him the money.

This is No Time to Panic

This is no time for Cardinals fans to panic, but it's certainly not looking good.  According to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated, the Cardinals and Pujols are miles apart in terms of their contract expectations. 

While neither side is talking publicly, early word is that Pujols has used A-Rod's contract, the richest in baseball and one that guarantees him least $275 million over 10 years (and could be worth as much as $305 million if he hits all his landmark home-run numbers), as the only comp. That comes as no surprise as Pujols is widely considered the best player in the game.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are said to have initially suggested a contract that would guarantee Pujols at least a bit less than $200 million. The exact particulars of their offer or offers aren't known, but there is a belief around the game that the Cardinals are hoping to keep the deal to seven years or less. In an interview with SI.com at the winter meetings, Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt strongly suggested he had no intention of making a 10-year offer and opined that the Yankees had to "regret'' such a deal.

Three years and roughly $100M is a huge difference, and it's one that might be too difficult for the two parties to overcome.  Pujols and his agent Dan Lozano reiterated the other day that they have no intention of negotiating once Spring Training starts on February 19th.  This gives the Cardinals exactly 34 days to get a deal done, or risk losing their franchise player to free agency.

I understand both parties in this situation.  On one hand, Pujols is the best player in the game.  Through ten seasons, he's done things that few, if any, players have done in their career.  His track record speaks for itself.  Based on Dave Cameron's projections, Pujols looks to be worth 42.5 fWAR between 2012-2020, which would make him worth $267M during that time if we assume a steady 5% salary inflation rate.  If his projections are correct (and I believe they are), Pujols will definitely be worthy of an A-Rod type contract.  For a player of Pujols' caliber, the Cardinals should be willing to make considerable salary concessions in order to keep him in the fold. 

On the other hand, ten years is a very long time.  An awful lot can happen during that time, especially when the player in question is on the wrong side of 30.  For instance, Pujols could unexpectedly decline at a rapid rate.  Or he could end up with a catastrophic injury that permanently affects his performance.  There's a lot of risk involved in signing a player to a contract of that magnitude.  When the Yankees signed A-Rod to his most recent deal after the 2007 season, most felt A-Rod was a freak of nature.  At 33, he was showing no signs of decline.  Then, the steroid bombshell it.  Then, he suffered a serious injury to his hip, which has limited him defensively at third base.  Three years later, A-Rod is a much different player, and the Yankees reportedly regret making such a large commitment to the controversial third baseman.  Understandably, Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt has similar concerns, and rightly so. 

While it looks pretty grim for the Cardinals right now, I have to imagine something will be worked out.  It might not get done before Spring Training starts, but something will be worked out during the 2011-2012 offseason at the latest.  Pujols is hugely important to the organization, and I don't see the Cardinals allowing him to walk away.  One thing is for sure, though.  If the two sides are going to come to an agreement, both parties will need to make some concessions along the way. 

Over the next week or so, I'm going to put together an article detailing Pujols' potential destinations if he's allowed to hit the free agent market after the season.  Stay tuned!

An Update on the Pujols Negotiations

The annual Major League Baseball owners' meetings are being held in Phoenix this week.  Can you feel the excitement?  Yeah, you're not alone.  The Owners' meetings are essentially the anti-Winter Meetings.  All of that Hot Stove-y goodness that we experienced last month?  That well, for the most part, has run dry.  This week, it's just the owners.  Now that Big Stein has passed, a more boring group they could not be.  Get this...they are actually conducting...(wait for it)...business.  BORING! 

Still, someone has to cover the meetings.  Over at Fox Sports, Jon Paul Morosi drew the short straw.  Hey, it could be worse.  The meetings could be in cold, snowy Minneapolis instead of warm, sunny Arizona.  Plus, when you cover these types of events, there's a good chance you'll stumble upon a hot scoop or two.  Luckily for us, that's precisely what happened. 

After bumping into Cardinals CEO Bill Dewitt in the hotel lobby, Morosi had a chance to talk shop about the Pujols negotiations for a few moments.  

“We’ve got time between now and then to get things done,” DeWitt said. “I’m hopeful. But these are big deals, and we’ll make every effort to get it accomplished.

“Spring training is a long period of time — six weeks. Whether it’s reporting date, or a week after, I don’t view it as, ‘If it’s not done by this day, then . . .’ I don’t see a specific day.”

(snip)

“We’re not that far along yet, so I wouldn’t think so,” DeWitt said, of what would be a public-relations bonanza. “I never rule anything out, but we’re not targeting that time frame. We’re looking more toward spring training. A deal of this magnitude will take some time.”

Well, that settles it.  Dewitt is an expert in saying a lot without saying anything at all.  If this baseball thing doesn't work out for him, he should have no problem having long and prosperous career in politics. 

Dewitt's comment strike me as being a bit odd.  Earlier this offseason, Pujols indicated that he will not participate in contract negotiations once he reports to Spring Training on February 19th.  Based on Dewitt's nonchalant attitude towards Pujols' self imposed negotiation deadline, I have to imagine that he either knows Pujols is willing to negotiate up to Opening Day, or just doesn't care.  Considering how important Pujols is to the Cardinals franchise, I highly doubt it's the latter.  That only leads the former. 

The two sides engaged extensive discussions last winter before talks broke off in February prior to Pujols's self-imposed Spring Training deadline.  In December during the Winter Meetings, the negotiations reignited, and have ramped up considerably in recent weeks.  At this point in the process, I have to imagine both parties have exchanged contract figures at least once.  Otherwise, the negotiations would be a colossal waste of time.  Still, it's tough to know for sure with both parties keeping the negotiations so close to the vest.   Pujols has yet to take a pre-contract physical for insurance purposes, which indicates that a deal is not imminent. 

Pujols, a ten time All-Star, is eligible to become a free agent after the 2011 season.  He's expected to be looking for a seven to ten year contract with an average annual salary in the $25-30M range.  

Pujols Negotiations Re-Ignited

Joe Strauss of St. Louis Today reports that the Cardinals and Albert Pujols have re-opened contract extension negotiations.  According to several anonymous sources close to the negotiation, they've taken on a "positive" tone.  Those sources have asked to remain anonymous due to both the sensitivity surrounding the negotiations, and a gentleman's agreement between Pujols's agent, Dan Lozano, and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak to "keep talks confidential."

Pujols has indicated that he will not negotiate a deal once he reports to Spring Training in Jupiter, FL next month.  This adds a certain degree of urgency on the part of the Cardinals to get this deal done as quickly as possible.  With only five weeks in which to agree in principle, there's very little margin for error. While the two sides met twice last month during the Winter Meetings in Orlando, they did not exchange proposals according to sources.  At the moment, it's unclear how much progress has been made, but it's believed to be "well beyond any framework discussed during last February's aborted discussions." 

Pujols, 30, is reportedly looking for a seven year contract with an annual average salary of $25-30M.  While that sounds like a lot of money (and it is), when you compare it to the salary of players like Mark Teixeira (who is not quite as talented and making $22.5M per season), it doesn't seem quite so ridiculous.  It's all relative.

The Cardinals are in a similar position with Pujols as the Giants were with Bonds, or the Orioles were with Ripken.  He is the face of their franchise.  For a player of his caliber (in his prime) they almost have to give in to his demands.  In ten seasons, Pujols has put up a .331/.426/.624 (.434 wOBA) triple slash line with 408 home runs, 1230 RBI, and 1186 runs scored.  He's played Fielding Bible Award quality defense at first base saving 62.4 runs per UZR (91 runs per DRS's calculation).  To date, he's provided 80.6 fWAR throughout his career.  Currently he's 43rd all-time in fWAR, and he still has another 10 years of play left in him, barring injuries.  To understand just how dominant he's been, he's averaging 8 WAR per season, which means he theoretically has produced enough value for ten MVP quality seasons.  That's nothing short of amazing.  This really should be a no-brainer for the Cardinals. 

Lance Berkman Signs with the Cardinals

 
Scott Boras's boyfriend...I mean, Jon Heyman reports the Cardinals have come to terms with Lance Berkman on a one year deal worth $8M.  This is an interesting signing.  Berkman had a tough season last year putting up career lows in wOBA (.345) and WAR (2.1).  While I don't expect him to ever be the .419 wOBA hitter he was in 2008, I don't think it's unrealistic to assume Berkman can rebound to being a .370 wOBA hitter, 3.0-3.5 WAR player overall. 

The only question that remains is:  What position does he play?  The Cardinals are a National League team, so the DH rule isn't in effect.  First base is occupied by Albert Pujols, and he's not moving for anyone.  Left field is occupied by Matt Holliday who's their $120M man, so he's not moving anywhere...or is he?  Apparently, the Cardinals, in their infinite wisdom, are moving Matt Holliday to right field--a position he's never played.  Berkman, on the other hand, has played 264 games (235 starts) in right over his career.  I love it when teams make decisions that are based in logic...