Volquez Turns Down Long-Term Deal

The Cincinnati Reds had an incredibly busy winter inking Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto to long-term deals that will keep the young core together through 2013.  They also tried locking up 27-year old starting pitcher Edinson Volquez to a long-term deal, but as Mark Sheldon of mlb.com reports, their attempts were denied.

"They were offering me a four-year contract, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I felt it wasn't right for me," Volquez told the Dominican publication El Caribe in a recent interview. "I talked to the lawyer and the general manager of the team and we all agreed on only one season."

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"They were offering me a four-year contract, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I felt it wasn't right for me," Volquez told the Dominican publication El Caribe in a recent interview. "I talked to the lawyer and the general manager of the team and we all agreed on only one season." 

While it's definitely a risky move for Volquez to leave all of that guaranteed money on the table, it's probably the right move at this time.   If he was to sign an extension right now, it'd be based on last year's inconsistent performance, and not the kind of dominant performance he's shown flashes of exhibiting during his three seasons with the Reds.  While a new deal on par with Cueto's four year $27M would provide tremendous security, it would likely come at the cost of a far more lucrative deal down the road.  Considering he's still three years away from free agency, he has plenty of time to show the Reds (and the baseball world) that he can recapture his 2008 form.  If he can, more power to him.  If he doesn't?  Well, he could be looking back at this day wondering if he made a major mistake. 

Volquez is only 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and has likely not fully recovered from the procedure.  His command is very inconsistent, and he still walks far too many batters (5.03 per nine innings), both of which common occurrences during the first few months after returning from the procedure.  While pitchers typically improve quality in both of these areas during their second season back, command and control has been an ongoing problem for Volquez.  As a result, he'll need to show he can make big strides in these areas going forward.  If he can't harness his control, it's unlikely he'll ever reach his potential of being either a true ace or quality number two starter.

Next season, Volquez will make $1.625M, and will have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility after that before becoming eligible for free agency.  He went 4-3 with a 4.00 FIP and a 67/35 K/BB ratio in 62-2/3 innings in 2010.

Reds Considering Long-Term Extension with Volquez

The Reds busy winter continues.  According to Jon Fay of the Cincinnati Inquirer, the team has entered into long-term contract discussions with right handed power pitcher Edinson Volquez. 

“We’re looking at both — one-year and multi-year,” Walt Jocketty said. “We’re hopeful that we’ll get something done.”

Volquez submitted a salary of $2 million when numbers were exchanged. The Reds countered at $1.3 million.

Volquez is a pretty unique case.  After being obtained in the trade that sent Josh Hamilton to Texas, Volquez put together a pretty impressive 2008 season going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 9.46 K/9, and 4.2 fWAR in 196 innings.  While his walk rate was unbelievably high (4.27 walks per nine innings), and his 8.0% HR/FB rate seemed unsustainable for a pitcher that makes half of his starts at Great American Ballpark, he showed flashes of the ace quality stuff many scouts had raved about for years. 

After making nine starts in 2009, his fortunes changed.  Over the last two seasons, he missed significant time due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.  When he's pitched, he's shown inconsistent command and a penchant for allowing home runs in bunches.  Still, he's shown flashes of brilliance that gives the Reds brass hope that he'll regain the dominance that he showed during the 2008 season.  

Volquez is eligible for arbitration for the first time this year, so the Reds can afford to be patient.  Considering his history with command issues and injuries, it's smarter for the Reds to go year-to-year with an option to re-open long-term discussions at some point in the future.  While the reward for locking up Volquez is high, so is the risk.  The Reds would be wise to wait another year to see if he can not only tame his command issues, but also regain some of the dominant form he showed in 2008.