Andy MacPhail is Terribly Wrong

Just a little bit more from Bob Nightengale’s article on Pujols…

His article uses a much discussed quote by Orioles president Andy MacPhail that I wanted to touch upon.

"I read that he's looking for $30 million a year, and I just can't see how that's going to happen…Alex Rodriguez to Texas was the worst signing in the history of baseball in my view," said MacPhail, referring to the 10-year, $252 million deal signed in December 2000. "There is this assumption that because this guy got (a huge contract) and this guy got (an even bigger contract), Albert Pujols has to get (more than both). Well, what if there are no bidders? What if the music stops and there are no chairs?"

In most cases, I’d agree with MacPhail.  In the game of musical chairs, it’s never fun to be left without a chair when the music stops.  Still, isn’t MacPhail the pot calling the kettle black in this situation?  Isn’t he the front office executive that offered Vlad Guerrero a $2M contract, and then later tripled the offer despite the fact there weren’t any non-imaginary bidders?  Maybe it’s just me, but I think it’d be best for MacPhail to keep his mouth shut.

In addition, MacPhail couldn’t be more wrong about his assessment of A-Rod’s contract with Rangers.  Was it ill-advised?  Probably.  Could it have been avoided?  Absolutely.  Was it the worst contract in baseball history?  Definitely not.  In fact, it’s not even close.  Furthermore, A-Rod’s contract didn’t ruin the Rangers.  It was the large sum of money the front office chose to spend on replacement level players that did them in.  Their pitching staff, in particular, was absolutely putrid.  During the A-Rod era, only once (among qualifying pitchers) did a Rangers pitcher produce a season that exceeded the replacement level threshold.  Once!  That pitcher was Kenny Rogers in 2002 with an unbelievably feeble 0.1 fWAR. 
So how poorly did the Rangers spend their money?  Let’s take a look.

In 2001, the Rangers spent $40.2M of their $87M payroll on the following players, and received 1.6 fWAR in return:  Kenny Rogers ($7.5M), Darren Oliver ($7M), Andres Galarraga ($6M), Rusty Greer ($4.6M), Rick Helling ($4.5M), Ken Caminiti ($3.5M), Randy Velarde ($3.15M), Mark Petkovsek ($2.05M), and Chad Curtis ($1.9M).

In 2002, the Rangers spent $58.7M of their $106M payroll on the following players, and received 1.7 fWAR in return:  Juan Gonzalez ($11M), Carl Everett ($8.67M), Kenny Rogers ($7.5M), Chan Ho Park ($6.88M), Rusty Greer ($6.8M), John Rocker ($2.5M), Ismael Valdez ($2.5M), Frank Catalanotto ($2.5M), Jay Powell ($2.5M), Dave Burba ($2M), Todd Van Poppel ($2M), Gabe Kapler ($1.85M), Dan Miceli ($1M), and Rudy Seanez ($1M).

In 2003, the Rangers spent $54.9 of their $103M payroll on the following players, and received 3.4 fWAR in return:  Juan Gonzalez ($13M), Chan Ho Park (13M) Carl Everett ($9.15M), Ugueth Urbina ($4.5M), Jay Powell ($3.25M), Ismael Valdez ($2.5M), Todd Van Poppel ($2M), Einer Diaz ($1.87M), Esteban Yan ($1.5M), Herbert Perry ($1.3M), John Thomson ($1.3M), and Doug Glanville ($1.0M).

During the A-Rod era, the Rangers managed to spend approximately $155M on mediocre talent, while receiving 6.7 fWAR in return.  For those of you who aren’t quick with math, that equals out to be $23M per win—hardly an efficient use of funds.  For reference, by today’s standards, the average cost of a win is around $5M.  Back in the early aughts, it was around $2.5-3.0M. 

Blaming A-Rod’s contract as the reason the Rangers failed during his time in Texas is both false and intellectually dishonest.  A-Rod did everything he possibly could to help the team win.  It’s not his fault the team wasted millions (nearly 40-50% of the overall payroll) on replacement level quality players.  That blame rests squarely on the front office. 

Vlad Deal Includes $3M in Deferred Money

Well, this makes it all better...

If he passes his #Orioles' physical and deal becomes official, Guerrero will make $5 million in 2011 with $3 million being deferred.

That tweet was from Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.  

Yeah, so the $3M deferred makes this deal marginally more palatable, but not really.  They're still paying him $5M this year when they could've easily paid him the $2M salary Manny Ramirez is getting from the Rays.  Plus, they're paying him $3M next season when he probably isn't going to be on the team anymore.  It just doesn't make any sense.  Peter Angelos, Andy McPhail, and the rest of the Orioles executive staff still have to look in the mirror everyday, and realize they outbid themselves for an aging DH that's past his prime.  They got straight up "Borased" by someone much less talented that Scott Boras.

Orioles Fall for the Mystery Team Ploy...Entire League Points and Laughs

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, the Orioles have signed Vlad Guerrero to a one year deal worth $8M.  Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and Jeff Zrebiak of the Baltimore Sun have both confirmed the report.

Man, the Orioles are total suckers.  They totally fell for that "mystery team" BS.  Simply amazing.  Oh, and by the way, he's making as much as Damon and Manny combined.  Who do you think got the better deal on this one:  the Rays or Orioles?  Advantage Rays.

If you ever are looking for reasons why the Orioles finish near the bottom of the league every year, look no further than this deal as a prime example.  They probably overpaid for Vlad by $6M.

Somewhere a crazy-eyed Kevin Millwood is licking his chops, eagerly awaiting his sucker...

Vlad Guerrero and the Mystery Team Machine

As Buster Olney reports today, the Vlad Guerrero talks are about to heat up.

"The Vladimir Guerrero talks will gather some momentum in the next 48 hours, one way or another. The Orioles have an offer on the table; last week, Guerrero's side informed them that they had an offer worth $8 million in play. It's not clear which team would have made the $8 million offer."

Really?  Guerrero's still totting around that story?  This is the second mentioning of Vlad's "mystery team" in a week.  The first time it was mentioned was on 1/28 also by Buster Olney.

I think the thing that amazes me about this whole situation is that Vlad supposedly received this amazing one year $8M offer (which coincidentally just happens to be the exact offer he's been seeking), and yet he hasn't jumped at it.  Doesn't this seem really strange?  It does to me.  I can see him shopping it around for a day or two, but an entire week?  Isn't he afraid this mystery team might get sick of waiting for him to sign, and pull their offer?  It's not like there are multiple teams beating down his door at this point.  We're talking about the Orioles, and that's about it.  Based on their thirteen year record of futility, it's not like he's hoping to sign with the Orioles because he wants to sign with a contending club. 

So what's he waiting for?  Well, honestly, the mystery team sounds pretty fake--not just a little fake, but really fake.  If I were the Orioles, I'd call his bluff.  I'd keep shooting him low ball offers, and with each offer, I'd reduce it slightly.  Eventually, he'll have to make a decision:  sit out the season or swallow his pride and accept the offer.  Chances are, he'll come crawling back and accept the low ball offer.  When he does, the Orioles will have a solid hitter for bargain basement price.

A Mystery Team in January? How Novel!

According to Buster Olney, Vladmir Guerrero has received a one year $8M contract from an unnamed mystery team, but has decided to continue shopping around for the time being.

Really?  So you're telling me that some team met Vlad's demands for a one year $8M deal, and he's still shopping?  I'm not saying Buster is wrong (he's just reporting the information he's being fed), but something doesn't seem right.   As soon as I read the report, two things came to mind.  One, don't Jon Heyman and Scott Boras have the market cornered on mystery teams?  Two, why is Vlad still reportedly talking to the Orioles?

According to recent reports, Vlad was unimpressed by the Orioles "low ball" offer of one year $2M.  If I had an ideal offer from one team, and I was made an insulting offer from another, I would stop negotiating immediately.  That's just me though.  Furthermore, the Orioles have stated they only have $4.5M (maximum) to spend, and they still would like to add another arm to their bullpen.  That pretty much precludes them from getting anywhere close to matching the unnamed mystery team's offer. 

So what's Vlad's upside to continue negotiating when he has a perfectly good $8M offer from another team?  There isn't one.  The problem is that like all great mystery teams, they don't exist.  Vlad hasn't received an $8M offer.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles were the only team actively negotiating with Team Vlad.  They're using this "offer" to try and gain some leverage on the Orioles.  Unfortunately for Vlad and his agent, this maneuver is so transparent that no one in their right mind (not even Jon Heyman, the master behind the mystery team) believes him.

In a semi-related note, if the Orioles do end up being successful in signing Guerrero, word is that Luke Scott will move to LF, and Felix Pie will be the odd man out. 

The Orioles Make Official Offer to Vlad

Acccording to Ken Rosenthal, the Baltimore Orioles have offered Vlad Guerrero a one year deal worth somewhere between $3-5M.  While the team hopes he accepts their offer, they are fully prepared for him to turn it down.  Considering the reports of Vlad's recent change in contract demands (at least one year at $8M), I'm not surprised the Orioles are taking that mentality.

As Rosenthal reports in his piece today, Guerrero may have no choice but to sign with the Orioles.  As I failed to point out yesterday, the Angels actually have a DH in Bobby Abreu.  If the Angels ponied up and signed Vlad, they would have to move the defensively challenged Abreu back to LF and Wells over to CF.  This would essentially destroy the benefit (and I use that term loosely) of making the Vernon Wells trade in the first place.

As I pointed out yesterday, now that the Rangers have traded for C/1B/DH Mike Napoli, Vlad isn't a fit in Texas either.  For the Rangers to clear a roster spot for Guerrero, they would have to find a team willing to take on Michael Young and $48M remaining on his contract.  That could prove to be incredibly difficult.  Seriously, who would take on that albatross of a contract?   Hmmm...  Um...maybe...the Angels?  I hear they're always willing to take on a bad contract or two.

That leaves the Orioles.  Considering Guerrero's obvious lack of options, the Orioles are in a great position to name their price, and let him come to them.  Based on the reports coming out of Vlad's camp, he has no intention of sitting out the season.  Eventually, he'll need to settle.  When he does, the Orioles should be in a great position to pick up a good hitter for a bargain basement price. 

Vlad's Options are Shrinking

The market for Vlad has been eerily quiet all winter.  While I never expected him to be among the most highly sought after free agents, I certainly expected him to be signed by now.  Now, that he's the last remaining big name free agent remaining on the market, reports have finally started coming in fast and furious. 

Today, SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers are out of the running, and the Orioles have "limited funds at this stage" with which to sign him.  At first glance, it seems a little bit surprising that a player who put up a .300/29/115 season would still be trolling the free agent market in search of an acceptable contract at the end of January.  Then, you remember that he's about to turn 36, and that he's completely untrustworthy defensively.  Also, Manny Ramirez, a reasonably close comparable, recently received a one year $2.5M deal from the Rays this past weekend, which probably hurt his value immensely.

It's becoming much more clear to me that Vlad is going to have to settle for a one year deal around $1.0-1.5M with lots of performance based incentives.  Me thinks he shouldn't have pushed his demands for a two year deal for so long.  Otherwise, he might've received a much more favorable contract by now.

Vlad Working on Deal with Orioles

UPDATE (1/22/2011 at 4:50 p.m.):  SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Orioles and Vlad Guerrero haven't spoken in two weeks.  Perhaps a deal is further off than Bowden's report implied.

Original Post (1/22/2011 at 11:54 a.m.):  According to Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio, the Orioles are closing in on signing Vladmir Guerrero to "humbling" one year contract.  With Manny and Damon signing last night with the Rays, you had to figure this would happen soon.  Guerrero is the last of the name brand free agents still remaining on the market, and there are only so many chairs left remaining.  The Orioles and Angels seem like the last logical landing spots for the aging slugger, although neither of them are ideal situations. 

With Napoli and Rivera having been traded to the Blue Jays, the Angels may have an opening at their DH spot.  I stress the word "may" because that really depends on what they decide to do with CF Peter Bourjos.  If the Angels decide to leave Bourjos in CF and put newly acquired Vernon Wells in LF, this would allow them to shift the defensively challenged Bobby Abreu from LF to DH.  In this case, the Angels would not appear to have an opening for Vlad.  Now, if the Angels decided to bench the light hitting, defensively oriented Bourjos, they could install Wells in CF, while leaving Abreu in LF and Hunter in RF.  Then, there might be an opening for Vlad at DH.  The latter option seems rather remote considering the Angels recent focus on playing defensively oriented players at key positions. 

As for the Orioles, they already have a pretty solid hitter encumbering the DH slot in Luke Scott.  If the O's pull off the deal to bring in Vlad as their DH, they would likely have to either move Scott to another position, or make a follow-up trade.  Currently, the Orioles have the recently signed Derrek Lee holding down first base, so Scott won't be moved there.  In left field, the young, promising Felix Pie currently has the position.  Pie has been slightly below average both offensively and defensively in his two years with the Orioles, so the Scott could take over in left if they think he's up to the task defensively.  Still, I have trouble believing the Orioles would be willing to stunt the development of a 26 year old outfielder in favor of a 32 year old OF/DH type that's a year away from free agency.  Considering the Orioles attempts to trade Scott at both of last year's trading deadlines, it wouldn't surprise me to see them try to reopen discussions within the next couple of weeks.  The Orioles won't get a huge haul in return for Scott, but they should be able to get at least a B-/C+ prospect in return.

Based on Manny Ramirez's recent one year $2M contract with the Rays, I'm going to predict Vlad signs a comparable deal with the Orioles within the next five to seven days.  Guerrero, 35, used an incredibly strong first half to propel him to a .360 wOBA with 29 home runs, and 2.6 WAR in 2010.

Can Derek Lee fix the Power Outage in Baltimore?

The Baltimore Orioles are once again coming off another disappointing season. 2010 marked the 15th consecutive year in a row that the Os finished with a losing record. Baltimore's season also included three different managers, although fortunately the Orioles were able to finish strong down the stretch going 34-23 under Buck Showalter. And of course anyone who follows baseball knows that the O's pitching is worse than a Robert Pattinson movie. Their starting pitching was just atrocious, with not a single one of their starters (who had at least 10 starts) posting a winning a record. Even their bullpen was pedestrian at best, with closer Alfredo Simon accumulating a measly 17 saves in 49 appearances and a glaringly bad ERA of 4.93.

To be fair Baltimore's pitching had very little run support. The case could easily be made that the Orioles offense was just as bad as their pitching. I know a big part of baseball is the ability to manufacture runs and get people on base. Getting on base is not as much of a problem as one might expect. Everyone in the starting lineup except for shortstop Cesar Izturis posted an OBP of over 300. The main problem with Baltimore's offense was its power numbers, particularly from the right side. Not a single player got to even 80 RBI. First baseman Ty Wigginton (who has since departed for Colorado) led the way with a pitiful 76. Meanwhile DH Luke Scott topped the team in HR with 27 and Nick Markakis had the most doubles with 45. An analysis of the team's offensive output had to have indicated to the top brass a desperate need to acquire power in the offseason.

And the Orioles front office's master plan was to bring in none other than--Derek Lee??? I'm sorry did I miss something? I thought this was 2011 not 2005. How could any team possibly think that Derek Lee would help their power numbers? Apparently the Orioles, for whatever misguided reason, do. Again this is just another demonstration of why the Baltimore Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball over the last decade and a half. Their moves are more myopic and perplexing than Mr. Magoo at a rave.

Look at the facts. Derek Lee is 35 years old an age where most first basemen's careers are on the downward slide. Lee's statistics over the last few years bare that out. Aside from a resurgent season in 2009 where Lee hit 35 HR and drove in 111 RBI, he hasn't hit over 22 HR or 90 RBI since 2005. Part of that has been due to injury but that is just a further indicator that Lee is not as durable anymore. Although his SLG in 2010 was a robust 428, he didn't crack 20 HR and barely hit 80 RBI. It was clear that the Cubs saw the writing on the wall. That is why they traded Lee to Atlanta last season. The Braves, not surprisingly, didn't re-sign him.
Granted Lee is a solid defensive first baseman and Luke Scott, another first baseman, mostly DHs. Also it is important to note that Lee will now be playing in the AL East where the ballparks on average are smaller than other divisions in baseball. Camden Yards in particular is intriguing because left field is only 333 feet.
However, Lee's 2010 WAR was 2 which is the worst of his career. Add that to a career low 340 OBA, his age, and some lingering questions about his durability, and all points indicate that Lee is unlikely to repeat his 2009 performance. In fact I kind of see Lee's 2009 season as a bit of a fluke, kind of like Derek Jeter's MVP type campaign in 2009. For both players I see the drop off continuing.

Despite everything I've just written however, Buck Showalter today said that he would bat Lee in the middle of the lineup in 2011, most likely in the third or fourth slot. Personally I don't see that lasting too long. I like how Adam Jones is starting to come along and I believe at some point he will be inserted into that number three slot.

The bottom line is that Derek Lee is not the solution to the power outage in Baltimore. He barely qualifies as electrical tape.

Defending the Orioles at Number 26

I'll be honest, when Josh wrote his piece on the worst rotations in baseball, I didn't think too many people would be upset to see the Orioles at number 26.  They are, after all, a rotation that's almost entirely built on unrealized potential.  Still, we received a couple of comments from angry Orioles fans regarding their team's placement on the list.  One anonymous commenter had this to say:

"Garbage. Ranking the Orioles staff so low betrays a lack of knowledge. You belittle Chris Tillman, who hopes to win the 5th starter's spot this year. As one of the younger pitchers (22 y/o) in triple A last year, he pitched a one hitter and a no hitter. Yet he may not make the O's staff and you think it's one of the worst in baseball? Get a clue. Zack Britton may be the best of our young starters. He's ready but stuck until an opening occurs. Others believe Jake Arrieta may be the best of them all. David Hernandez threw about 95-96 as a starter but was moved to the bullpen to make room for others. His velocity increased to 97-99 in the bullpen. Every team talking to the O's inquired about Hernandez, yet he was moved to the bullpen to make room for more promising guys. Getting the picture yet?

Take this to the bank: the Orioles 2011 rotation will not be a bottom 10 rotation. May be a top 10. If not 2011, most certainly 2012.

After a long dark period, O's fans can rejoice that there is no agreement as to who will be the next O's ace: Matusz, Arrieta, Britton."

The problem with this argument is that it's based almost entirely on rhetoric--not facts.  After reading some of the messages on an Orioles bulletin board from which we've received heavy traffic from recently, it appears that it wasn't just the one commenter that was drinking the hype Kool-Aid, but several Orioles fans.* That's to be expected, and I have no problem with that.  It's great to see them get excited about their team, but emotion and excitement should never take the place of rational and logical thought processes.  Let's take a deeper look at the Orioles rotation for 2011.

* Just for contrast, the writers and readers of Let's Go Tribe seemed thrilled to see their team at #21 on our list.  Take a look at the comments section.  They're surprisingly positive.  This, of course, doesn't justify our position, but it does show that Indians fans are more realistic about the expectations of their pitching staff.

Brian Matusz - 10-12, 4.30/4.05/4.51, 7.33 K/9, 2.27 K/BB, 36.2% GB, 2.7 fWAR

Matusz isn't quite an ace yet, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him take another step toward that goal in 2011.  While the soon to be 24 year old lefty has tremendous tools at his disposal, he still has a lot of work to do before reaching his ceiling.  Matusz allows contact within the acceptable range, but it's a little too high for a pitcher with ace quality stuff.  In 2010, he saw a considerable drop in his swinging strike rate (9.4% to 8.0%), while seeing a corresponding increase in contact rate (78.2% to 82.8%).  I can best attribute these trends to his over-reliance on his fastball, and a reduction in the number of sliders thrown.  According to Fangraphs pitch type values, Matusz's slider was worth 4.1 runs.  On the surface that might not seem very impressive, but he only threw his slider 6.9% of the time.  Considering his slider (along with his curve) induce the most swinging strikes, he should probably try to mix in a few more sliders into his regular repertoire.

My other concern with Matusz is his poor GB/FB ratio (0.77 for his career).  As I mentioned in my analysis on Slowey and Baker yesterday, pitchers that give up a large number fly balls also tend to give up more than their share of home runs.  So far, he's performed better than expected with regards to his HR/FB rate, but there's not enough data to state whether he's one of those pitcher that consistently outperforms the league norm.  Until we do, we should expect that his HR/FB rate will regress to the mean in 2011.  Additionally, while he wasn't victimized by the Orioles questionable outfield defense last season (per UZR), it remains to be seen if he'll continue to be as fortunate in 2011 and beyond.

* This fact shouldn't really surprise anyone as pitchers very rarely give up home runs on ground balls.  When they do, it's usually the result of a fielder error.  

Jeremy Guthrie - 11-14, 3.83/4.44/4.80, 5.12 K/9, 2.38 K/BB, 42.3% GB, 2.3 fWAR

There's not really a whole lot to say about Guthrie.  As the 22nd overall pick in the 2002 draft, a lot more was expected out of him.  Guthrie is essentially a league average pitcher that ultimately belongs in the number four spot, not the two.  He does a few things pretty well.  He limits walks, induces a reasonable number of ground balls, and has a surprisingly effective fastball considering he doesn't induce a lot of whiffs.  His age, low strikeout rate, high contact rate, and lack of a consistent second pitch (his slider used to be that pitch) makes Guthrie more of a question mark than a positive asset at this point.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him enter his decline phase in 2011.

Brian Bergesen - 8-12, 4.98/5.12/4.90, 4.29 K/9, 1.59 K/BB, 48.7% GB, 0.6 fWAR

Bergesen gets the third slot in their rotation by default.  I know a lot of Oriole fans want to say that his poor 2010 was due to the freak injury he sustained during a MASN commercial shoot (and there's some merit to that), but that's somewhat dishonest.  Bergesen just doesn't have enough talent to be anything more than a fringe major league starting pitcher.  In reality, he'd probably be best used as either a long reliever or a AAA call-up.  I'm sorry, but it's true. 

He neither strikes batters out, nor does he induce swinging strikes.  His control is good, but not great--particularly when compared to his strikeout rate.  Also, for a pitcher who relies on his sinking fastball to induce ground balls, he does a fairly poor job of actually producing them (at least in comparison to most pitchers with extreme ground ball tendencies).  According to Fangraphs pitch type values, his fastball (worth -24.3 runs) was one of the least effective pitches in the majors.  To make matters worse, he doesn't have a "plus" secondary pitch in his repertoire. 

Lastly, he allows far too much contact.  In 2010, his contact rate was tied for third highest in baseball among qualified pitchers.  The other members of the top five were Doug Fister, Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Kendrick, and Livan Hernandez.  That's not exactly an awe inspiring group.  Despite Joe Morgan's insistence to the contrary, pitching to contact doesn't work.  In the long-term, high contact rates leads to more hits, and therefore more runs. 

Chris Tillman - 2-5, 5.87/5.89/5.26, 5.20 K/9, 1.00 K/BB, 42.7% GB, -0.2 fWAR

Let me start out by saying that Tillman has the potential to end up as a bonafide number two starting pitcher in the major leagues.  Going into his age-23 season, he has plenty of time to turn his recent major league performance around.  That said, he hasn't done anything in the majors that would convince me that he's going to turn it around in 2011.  He could surprise me, but until he does, I have to project him based on what he's produced so far.

Tillman doesn't induce strikeouts or whiffs; he allows too many walks; and his fly ball tendencies cause him to give up more than his share of homers.  He, like every other Oriole pitcher, seems to rely too much on his fastball.  He threw the pitch 61.3% of the time during his 23 starts over the past two seasons, and it's been rather ineffective (worth -19.6 runs).  He has developed a pretty effective cutter, which should help him induce more ground balls.  His change-up also has the potential to be a solid pitch, but he'll need to throw it more often to gain any benefit from it.

Tillman is very much a work in progress.

Jake Arrieta - 6-6, 4.66/4.76/5.35, 4.66 K/9, 1.08 K/BB, 42.2% GB, 0.8 fWAR

Despite what the commenter above said, Arrieta has a very small chance of ever becoming an ace.  Most scouts have his ceiling pegged as a number three starter.  I haven't read any scouting reports claiming that Arrieta might be the best of the bunch.  Considering what he's shown so far in both the minor and major leagues, that might be a little bit of a stretch. 

Like Tillman, he's shown very little to allow me to believe he'll be a solid major league starting pitcher.  (He's only 24, so there's still time to change my mind.)  His strikeout rate is poor.  His control, even in the minors, was disappointing.  Despite having command of four pitches, he lacks a true plus pitch.  His slider flashes plus at times, but it's unknown whether he'll ever develop the pitch to the plus level.  Again, Arrieta throws too many fastballs (above 60%), and would probably benefit from mixing in more secondary pitches into his repertoire.  Until he proves otherwise, Arrieta profiles as a back of the rotation starter for a non-contender. 

As for Zach Britton and Brandon Erbe, neither are in the majors, so it's unfair to lump them in with the our list.  That said, I love Zach Britton.  He strikes batters out, limits walks, and induces ground balls.  What's not to love?  If anyone can wrestle the ace role from Matusz, it's Britton.  Brandon Erbe, on the other hand, was atrocious last year going 0-10 with a 5.74 ERA between low A and AAA.  His performance was so poor that Jon Sickels of minorleagueball.com dropped Erbe from his Oriole prospect list entirely (he wasn't even named in the "Others" category) after being ranked number five in 2010.  He's only 23, so he still has some time to develop, but he's probably need to be considered a fringe number five guy at this point.

The Orioles rotation has a lot of potential, but they need to prove they can consistently pitch at the major league level before anyone is going to take them seriously.  Sometimes, the truth hurts.

Orioles Come to Terms with Kevin Gregg

According to Dan Connelly of the Baltimore Sun, Kevin Gregg and the Orioles have come to terms on a two year $10M deal that includes a vesting option for 2013.

Last season, the closer role was a disaster for the Orioles with Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, and the recently arrested Alfredo Simon all holding down ninth inning duties for a period of time.  While Gregg, 32, should go into Spring Training as the odds on favorite to win the closer job, he should get plenty of competition from Uehara.  Despite not having a lot of closer experience in the major leagues, he was pretty impressive last season putting up a 2.86 ERA with a 55/5 K/BB ratio, and 1.4 fWAR. 

Kevin Gregg has four years of closer experience, racking up at least 23 saves in each season, while holding down the role for the Marlins, Cubs, and Blue Jays.  Last season, Gregg went 2-6 with 37 saves in 43 chances, a 3.51 ERA, and a mediocre 58/30 K/BB ratio. 

Alfredo Simon Wanted for Murder

Well, this is just sad.

Baltimore Orioles reliever Alfredo Simon is the main suspect in the New Year's Eve killing of a man in the Dominican Republic, police said Sunday.

The pitcher shot and killed 25-year-old Michel Castillo Almonte and wounded his 17-year-old brother during a New Year's Eve celebration in the northeast coastal town of Luperon, police said in a statement. No motive was disclosed. Simon is from the Dominican Republic, and police said he fled after the violence.

As I understand it, Simon is negotiating his surrender to authorities at some point over the next few hours.  Once he does, he'll be brought to justice.  If convicted, he could receive up to 30 years in jail.

Last season, Simon, 29, went 4-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 17 saves in 21 chances.  Despite the fact that he seemed to stabilize Baltimore's closer situation, that really wasn't the case.  Simon pitched below the replacement level in 2010, and gave up more than his share of gopher balls to go along with a mediocre 37/22 K/BB ratio in 49.1 innings.  Simon was expected to be a key member of the Orioles bullpen in 2011.

Derrek Lee Contract Update

Just wanted to give a quick update on the Derrek Lee contract.

Terms have not been officially disclosed, but Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports that the deal is expected to be worth approximately $8M.  Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports tweeted that he heard the deal includes incentives that could push the contract up to $10M.

If this is all true, it's a great deal for both sides.  The Orioles get the proven power hitter their lineup has desperately needed for several years.   Lee, on the other hand, gets a chance to rebuild his value after a slightly disappointing season, while still making $8-10M.  Sounds like a win-win for both sides to me.

Additionally, Lee's contract gives the Orioles maximum flexibility going into the 2011 Hot Stove season.  As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, this gives them a great opportunity to make a run at Prince Fielder.

Angels Now Clear Front Runner for Beltre

According to Ken Rosenthal, we can now name the Angels as the official front runners in the incredibly dull Adrian Beltre sweepstakes. 

The Angels, more than ever, look like the front-runners to sign free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre.

The A’s, who made Beltre multiple offers, pulled out of the talks this week to pursue other players, according to major-league sources.

The Rangers, while maintaining interest in Beltre, remain uncomfortable with both the price and fit, sources said. 

So the A's have officially ended talks with Beltre and Boras, which makes sense considering how they've been jerked around.  Last offseason they offered him a 3 year $24M deal, and Beltre turned it down in favor of a one year $10M deal with Boston.  This offseason, the Athletics stormed out of the gate offering him 5 years at $64M.  Rather than give them a simple yes or no, Beltre and Boras sat on the offer until A's GM Billy Beane finally pulled the offer.  According to Rosenthal's sources, Beane improved his offer to Beltre at least once, only to be rebuffed.  Rather than waste his time, Beane has started looking to redirect his resources toward bullpen options like Hideki Okajima and Chad Qualls. 

With the A's out of the running, and the Rangers stuck in neutral unless they can unload Michael Young, there appears to be a pretty clear path for Beltre ending up with the Angels.  The Angels pulled their 5 year $70M contract from the table a couple of weeks ago.  Knowing Arte Moreno's take-it-or-leave-it style of negotiating, it's hard to imagine him giving in to Boras's demands of 5/$85M.  With no clear cut competitor, I don't see any reason why the Angels should feel compelled to go to far above their original offer.

Still, things are never cut and dry with Scott Boras clients.  Mystery teams always seem to appear at the perfect time.  Not surprisingly, the mystery teams always seem to confide in Scott Boras's BFF, Jon Heyman.  Strange how that always seems to happen...

Rosenthal names a few teams that might become interested in Beltre if things fall the right way.  For instance, he opined that the Orioles may become interested if talks for LaRoche and Lee fall through.  While they have Reynolds at third already, they could move him to first to make room for Beltre.  The Orioles, having been burned several times this offseason by free agent targets, may be motivated to make a strong (and surprising) move for Beltre.  The other teams he named were the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Marlins.  These candidates are only possible in the most ideal of situations as they consider Beltre to be too expensive.

It's probably only a matter of time before Beltre eventually comes to terms with the Angels.  We'll just play the waiting game until that happens.  Then again, Scott Boras clients do have a tendency to end up in unexpected destinations (see Jayson Werth, Johnny Damon).

Orioles Still Pursuing Lee...But is it Mutual?

Now that the Adam LaRoche negotiations have settled into a permanent stasis, the Orioles have turned their full attention to signing former Cub first baseman Derrek Lee.  The only problem is that Lee might not be interested in coming to Baltimore.

The question is whether the Orioles can satisfy Lee competitively, financially and geographically — and how strongly the Nationals remain in the mix for the 14-year veteran, who is coming off surgery on his right thumb.

The Padres offered Lee a one-year deal for more than $8 million before signing free agent Brad Hawpe to play first, sources say. Lee, 35, presumably would want similar money from the Orioles or Nationals, if not more.

His preference, according to a source with knowledge of his thinking, is to play for a contender and/or play out west. Lee, who is from Sacramento, Calif., now has a home in southern California.

Lee doesn't have a lot of options left at this point.  When he spurned the Padres one year $8M deal, they turned to the much cheaper Brad Hawpe to fill their opening at first base.  That left only the Orioles and Nationals as viable options for Lee.  Of course, the O's and Nats satisfy neither of Lee's primary desires:  playing for a contender nor playing close to home.  Since he can't satisfy either of those two desires, he needs to act quickly to ensure he still gets a contract representative of his value.  If he allows LaRoche to sign first, he would be limiting his market to one team (unless a "mystery team" appears--Jon Heyman is probably cooking one up as we speak), which greatly inhibits his negotiating power.  This would force him to slash his salary demands further, and likely force him to sign a contract well below his true value.

I won't be surprised if the Padres $8M offer ends up being the best offer Lee ends up seeing this offseason.  It's a shame he turned it down because it seems like an ideal situation for him.  Such is life on the free agent market.  Contrary to popular belief, the free agent market is filled with just as much risk as it is riches.

Orioles, Gregg Still Negotiating

Two weeks ago, ESPN Boston's Joe McDonald reported they were close to finalizing a 2 year $12M deal.   Today, a deal isn't signed, but discussions are still ongoing.

the #orioles, who quietly had a decent winter despite all the rejections by free agents, are in talks with rhp kevin gregg

First of all, I'm not sure why the Orioles want Gregg when they already have Koji Uehara.  I guess a 2.41 FIP and a 55/5 K/BB ratio in 44 innings isn't good enough for the closer role.

Secondly, closers are a luxury.  They're the last piece of a contending team's puzzle.  Last I checked, the Orioles weren't that close to contending.  Instead of wasting $12M on a closer they don't need, why not use the money to sign one of their newly acquired infielders to an extension?  Or what about an extension for Adam Jones?  Just an idea.

Gregg is coming off a season where he saved 37 games in 43 chances while putting up a 3.51 ERA, a 58/30 K/BB ratio, and provided 0.8 wins above the replacement level.  Considering his age (33 years old) and the his three year value baseline (1.4 WAR), he seems like a poor bet to provide enough value to justify his contract.

LaRoche Talks Break Down, O's Look to Lee

Perhaps the LaRoche to Baltimore deal isn't a done deal after all.

While the Orioles haven't abandoned hope of signing free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, their inability to get a deal done has prompted them to renew talks with Derrek Lee, according to multiple sources.

(snip)

It's unclear whether that is because LaRoche is reportedly seeking a three-year deal while the Orioles would prefer not giving him three guaranteed years, or LaRoche simply has better, more lucrative offers, and doesn't want to play in Baltimore.

I'm asking the same question a lot of people are asking right now.  What is it about Baltimore that free agents don't like?  Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they play in the AL East with the Yankees and Red Sox?  Or maybe Peter Angelos has a much worse reputation, among the players, than I'd originally thought?  Unfortunately, I don't really have a concrete answer.  What ever the reason, the O's need to figure out a way to reverse this disturbing trend.  Otherwise, they're destined to be the major league's perennial free agent bride's maid.

No one knows for sure how the Orioles and LaRoche have reached this impasse.  Many have speculated (including the author of the article I've linked to) that either the O's are unwilling to guarantee a third season, or LaRoche has received a more lucrative deal from another team.  The former sounds pretty reasonable, as I opined as much the other day when I first reported the LaRoche deal.  The latter, on the other hand, seems a little more far fetched.  Based on all of the credible reports I was able to find, there are only three teams reported to be looking for a first baseman:  the Orioles, Nationals, and Padres.  The Padres, due to their current ownership and payroll situation, are unlikely to give LaRoche $7M, let alone a figure greater than that amount.  While the Nationals seem to have money to burn, they seem to be more interested in signing Lee than LaRoche.  I haven't found any reports indicating the Nationals have had anything more than a passing interest in the former Brave.

While the deal for LaRoche isn't dead, the Orioles have reignited talks with former Cub All-Star Derrek Lee.  According to Ken Rosenthal, Lee is reportedly looking for a one year deal worth around $8-10M.  While at first glance, this might seem like a bit of a reach considering Lee produced only a .340 wOBA and 2.0 WAR in his age-34 season, but it's not.  After doing a 5-4-3 WAR regression, I project Lee will likely provide between 2.7-3.0 WAR next season, or $13.5-15M in value*; thus, making his $8-10M salary a bargain.  Lee still has plenty in the tank.  He has above average power, good patience at the plate, makes solid contact (line drive vs. pop ups), and plays average to above average defense at his position.  Considering his desire for a one year deal, Lee is probably a better fit for the Orioles than LaRoche. 

* Based on Fangraph's WAR salary model.  Average cost of a win on the free agent market is currently around $5M.

Should the unexpected happen and the Orioles lose out on both Lee and LaRoche, I expect the Orioles to make a run at a quality bat like Johnny Damon, Vlad Guerrero, or Jim Thome to fill the DH spot.  The Orioles currently have a couple of internal options at first base in Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold, should it comes to that point.  While neither are ideal options defensively, their defense shouldn't be a detriment to the team. 

LaRoche Close to Three Year Deal in Baltimore

Jen Royle of MASN Sports has the scoop on the Orioles newly signed first baseman.  The Orioles and Adam LaRoche have officially come terms on a 3 year contract believed to be worth $16-18M.

I'm not really sure what to make of this deal.  On one hand, it's not a terrible deal when you look at it solely on a salary per season basis.  With the average cost of a win on the free agent market being around $5M, LaRoche should have no problems justifying his salary.  (He projects to be a 2 WAR player, on average, over the next three seasons.)  On the other hand, was it really necessary to sign him for three years?  For a 31 year old middle of the road first baseman, I figured they could have signed him for a maximum of two (if not one) years.

Also, Prince Fielder will likely hit the free agent market next year.  If the O's had saved up their pennies, they might have been able to make a serious run at signing him.  After their run for Mark Teixeira a couple of years ago, they showed they're willing to spend the kind of money necessary to make a big splash on the free agent market.  If the Orioles plan on contending in the big bad AL East, they'll need to do two things:  (1) continue to develop talent via the draft and smart trades, and (2) make the occasional big splash on a top talent.  The O's have number one down pat.  Now, they need to find a way to go from being a perennial bride's maid to a bride when it comes to acquiring top free agent talent. 

Still, LaRoche seems to be a decent fit.  As a left handed hitter that consistently hits around 25 home runs per season, he should be able to take advantage of the short porch in right field.  I don't see him having any problem posting a .350 wOBA, while playing average defense at first base.  All-in-all, it's not a bad deal.  He won't hurt the team, and he'll provide enough value to justify his salary.  I just don't think it was necessary for the Orioles to guarantee three years for LaRoche when they could've gotten him for less.

Orioles Trade for Hardy

The Orioles may've been the ultimate bride's maid on the free agent market, but they're doing pretty well for themselves on the trade market.  Earlier today, they completed a deal to obtain shortstop, J.J. Hardy and utility infielder Brendan Harris from the Twins in exchange for pitchers Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey. 

I spoke in depth about the Orioles interest in trading for Hardy last month, so I won't bore you with all of the details again.  Suffice it say, I really like the move.  While Hardy's been down offensively the last two seasons, I have a feeling he'll bounce back in 2011 when he gets to play half of his games in doubles friendly Camden Yards.  Defensively, Hardy is one of the better players at his position.  He has good range, soft hands, and a strong arm.  He'll definitely stabilize a position that's been filled by replacement level players over the past three years. 

Hardy will be a free agent after the 2011 season.  It will be interesting to see if the Orioles try to lock him up for the next 2-3 years prior to Opening Day. 

Orioles, Diamondbacks Making Progress on Reynolds Trade

Why do I get the impression he struck out before this picture was taken?

UPDATE (12/6/2010 1:10 pm):  It is official.  The Diamondbacks have traded third baseman Mark Reynolds to the Orioles in exchange for relief pitcher David Hernandez and minor league reliever Kam Mickolio. 

I’m not sure what this means for prospect Josh Bell (picked up in the George Sherill trade), but presumably it gives him a little more time to develop.  At 24, he shouldn’t have too much more development remaining.  The O’s are looking at some short term solutions at first base (rumored to be interested in Derrek Lee), so it’s possible they end up moving Reynolds from third to first in 2012 to make room for Bell.  At the very least, it would shore up their defense.

11:30 am:  Orioles President Andy McPhail has admitted that the Orioles have made significant progress with the Diamondbacks regarding a trade for third baseman Mark Reynolds. 

Early reports had the Orioles trading highly regarded pitching prospect Chris Tillman (one of the centerpieces of the Eric Bedard trade) to the Diamondbacks, but apparently they aren’t interested.  Tillman has had a lot of trouble transferring the success he’s had in the minors to the majors.  Plus, he’s an extreme flyball pitcher with a penchant for giving up home runs.  That’s not exactly the ideal skill set you want a pitcher to have in homer friendly Chase Field.  Instead, they’ve requested David Hernandez, a hard throwing reliever.  Hernandez struggled as a starter, but flourished after stepping into a relief role.  Many baseball insiders think he could develop into an effective seventh or eighth inning guy. 

One season after mashing 44 home runs, Reynolds struggled last year registering a .198/.320/.433 (.328 wOBA) line.  While I’m not one to make a big deal about batting average, a .198 average is pretty bad.  Reynolds’s line drive rate dropped from 17.4% to a paltry 13.3%, while his fly ball rate jumped from 47.3% to 54.9%.  When you factor his strike out totals (42.3% of his at bats), it becomes pretty clear that he wasn’t cursed by bad luck. 

If I was the Orioles, I would be very concerned by these numbers, in particular his line drive rate.  While his chronically low line drive rate (the primary driver of batting average) might be due to a mechanical issue in his swing, it’s also possible his bat speed is slowing.  While Reynolds is a bit young (27 years old) to be suffering from slowing bat speed, it’s certainly not unheard of.  If this is the case, his numbers will only get worse from here.

Reynolds’ skill set (“old man skills”) is one that has a tendency to regress quickly.  Offensively, he has little to offer a team other than home runs and walks.  Defensively, he has below average range and an erratic arm at third base.  Despite his high stolen base totals, EqBRR (which measures base running ability) shows him being a below average base runner in three of his four seasons.  This number is supported by his low success rate on stolen base attempts.

If I was Andy McPhail, I’d pass on Reynolds, and focus on Adrian Beltre.  There’s just too much baggage to justify the risk.  Unfortunately, it looks like the O’s aren’t interested in Beltre.