More Thoughts on the Wells Trade

Well, it took me awhile, but I finally found someone that likes the trade that sends Vernon Wells to the Angels.  Victor Rojas, a TV commentator for the Angels, has come out strongly in support of the trade in a recent piece he wrote on twitlonger.com.  Here's what he had to say.

"The players the Angels sent to Toronto are two very good guys...I like them both personally but I believe things had run its course & it was time to move on (that actually happens in sports...you know, where a team has decided to cut ties with someone & they have some value on the market)."

On this point, Rojas is dead on.  Things had run their course with Napoli and Rivera in Los Angeles, and both probably needed to be moved.  Rivera, 32, is coming off of a terrible season in which he produced a .252/.312/.409 triple slash line, which is the very definition of a replacement level hitter.  As a player that doesn't hit for average, draw walks, run the bases well, or play adequate defense at a corner outfield position, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Rivera has an expiration date of two or three season at most.  While Rivera could show a power resurgence while playing half of his games at the homer happy Rogers Centre, it was still probably the smartest move for the Angels to move him.

Napoli, on the other hand, is an incredibly useful player that the Angels seemed to irrationally dislike.  Despite exhibiting positive baseball talents like the ability to hit for power and draw walks, the Angels seemed to prefer the light hitting Jeff Mathis over Napoli.   Why?  Defense, of course.  Never mind the fact that Mathis has actually allowed more passed balls (21 to 20), wild pitches (14 to 2), or a higher percentage of runners to steal a base (77.3% success rate to 76.1%) despite catching 614 fewer innings.  None of that matters because the Angels were convinced that Mathis was better at calling games than Napoli.  Is it true?  You tell me.  Last I checked, there's neither a viable way to measure game calling skills, nor a credible study showing that a specific catcher can have anything more than a minor impact on a pitcher's ability to perform.  The Angels were essentially basing their opinion on faith, not fact.  That's there choice.  They can run their team anyway they want.  I'm just a man at the keyboard who disagrees with their flawed thought process.  Based on their actions, it's clear that there wasn't a long term future for Napoli with the Angels.  As such, he needed to be moved to a team that appreciates his talents.

Removing the "contract" (4 years and roughly $75mm remaining after you back out the app. $11mm for Napoli/Rivera in '11) for a moment, would you have traded Napoli/Rivera for Wells in a straight baseball move? My answer is yes and that's what the Angels did with the blessing of Mr. Moreno (who, by the way, is the guy that's ACTUALLY footing the bill) and they did so without losing a draft pick and without affecting arbitration & free agency. As Mark Healy (@baseballdigest9) asked this morning - "When did #MLB fans decide that this sport is now a contest for who spends their money most wisely? Unless you're an investor, who cares?"

Contrary to popular belief, Wells is actually a pretty average ballplayer.  He has the reputation of being a plus-defender due to the three Gold Gloves he won between 2004-2006.  While he may've been deserving of that reputation at the time, that time has passed.  Since 2007, he's been among the worst defensive center fielders in the game by multiple defensive metrics (UZR, Total Zone, and DRS), and probably would benefit from a position change from center to left.  As a power hitter, Wells also has the reputation of being one of the games top hitters, but even that's undeserved.  Outside of hitting home runs, Wells's offensive skill set is pretty limited.  Wells is an "out machine" who's averse to taking a walk.  In seasons where he failed to hit for a high average (see 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2009), his OBP plummeted to unacceptable levels.  As such, he's produced below average wOBAs in two of the last four seasons.  True All-Star caliber players (especially those making $20M per season) don't produce two offensive seasons like that in such a short period of time unless they're pitchers. 

Last night on Twitter, there was an interesting exchange between Sky Kalkman and Dave Cameron.  Kalkman opined, "At $5M per win, Vernon Wells has to produce 17 WAR over the next four years, or something like 5/4.5/4/3.5. It *could* happen."  To which Cameron smartly replied, "Only 23 position players produced 17+ WAR over last four years. The worst player in that group is Curtis Granderson."  So how many WAR did Wells produce over the last four seasons?  Exactly 7.0.  Yes, that's right.  Wells was ten whole wins worse than Curtis Granderson.  While Granderson is a very nice player, I don't know of anyone that would willingly agree to pay him $80M+ over the next four years--and he's 27 months younger than Wells.  That's what makes this trade so baffling.  Wells is just not that good of a player, and at 32, he projects to decline even further.

As Kalkman stated above, using the typical regression pattern of 0.5 WAR per season, Wells would have to produce something along the lines of 5/4.5/4/3.5 WAR over the next four seasons in order to justify his contract.  For a 32 year old player who's only produced 7.0 WAR in the previous four seasons (4.0 WAR coming last year alone), it's highly unlikely the perfect scenario Kalkman presented will come to fruition.  So how will Wells actually fare over the next four years?  Based on my weighted 5/4/3 WAR regression, I have pegged Wells as being a 2.0-2.5 WAR true talent player in 2011.  Assuming a 5% increase in the average cost of a win on the free agent market, and using the same 0.5 WAR regression pattern Kalkman used above, here are my projections for the next four seasons.

                 Age      WAR          Value          Salary        Variance        Cost/Win
2011          32         2.5           $12.5M        $23M         -$10.5M          $5.00M
2012          33         2.0           $10.5M        $21M         -$10.5M          $5.25M
2013          34         1.5           $8.3M          $21M         -$12.7M          $5.51M
2014          35         1.0           $5.8M          $21M         -$15.2M          $5.80M
Total                      7.0           $37.1M        $86M         -$48.9M
 
Between 2011 and 2014, I project that Wells will provide $37.1M in performance based value despite receiving a salary that is more than twice that amount.  In reality, this makes Wells a sunk cost for the Angels--not an asset that will improve the team both in the short and long-term.  Furthermore, a contract of this magnitude hampers the Angels financial flexibility as they've now committed around 15-20% of their payroll to a player that may not be worthy of being a starter within two seasons.  When that happens, there's no way they'll ever be able to move Wells or his toxic contract.  No GM in their right mind, not even Brian Sabean or Jim Hendry, would take on Wells's contract unless the Angels were willing to take on an equally toxic contract like Barry Zito's or Alfonso Soriano's.  Essentially, the Angels are stuck.  They might not realize it now, but when they do, it will be far too late.

The Angels had the opportunity to spend that money more wisely on players like Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, and Adrian Beltre, but they chose not to take that route.  Instead of making those players serious contract offers, Moreno and the Angels grossly underbid each one of them.  Then, they seemed shocked and dismayed when said players spurned the Angels for other teams with better offers.  Now, in order to placate a restless fan base and critical media, the Angels have overreacted by trading for Wells and his ridiculous contract.  You can try to remove the contract from the equation all you want, but as Rob Neyer has frequently stated, teams trade contracts not players.  Wells is owed $86M over the next four seasons, and the Angels will be picking up $81M of it.  The fact that Arte Moreno was on board with absorbing Wells's contract doesn't justify it as a strong business move.  It only shows that Moreno was either foolish or desperate enough to agree to it.

What They're Saying About the Wells Trade

As I mentioned yesterday, Twitter was afire with tweets regarding the shocking Vernon Wells trade.  I thought it would be fun to share some of those tweets.


Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues - If they send Napoli and Rivera to Toronto, I hear the Angels will fill the extra roster spot by picking up Albert Haynesworth.

Ed Price of MSNBC - Maybe MSNBC was able to dump all of Olbermann's contract on the Angels.

Evan Brunell of Fire Brand and CBS Sports - Wait, the Jays only kicked in $5 million!? AA must be partying hard.

Joe Posnanski of SI - Hunter, Abreu, Wells, Piniero ... Have to say it. The Angels are absolutely favorites to win the 2002 World Series again.

Alex Speier of WEEI.com - So #angels wouldn't pay crawford $20.3M for ages 29-35, but will pay Wells $21.5M for ages 32-35?

Keith Law of ESPN - Better ideas than trading for Vernon Wells' entire contract: Dressing up like an elf and rappeling down an office building

Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus - The Wells trade is so seismically bad it forces us to re-calibrate the bar for all other trades. KC's trade for Yuni gets upgraded to an F+.

Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus - Wait, when did Bill Bavasi retake power in Anaheim?

Jon Heyman of SI - still a fantastic job by #jays anthopoulos to unload all but $5 mil of wells' absurd pact. early frontrunner for exec of yr

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN - I think "Little Fockers'' got better reviews than Tony Reagins' acquisition of Vernon Wells and his $86M contractual obligation.

Craig Calcaterra of NBC Hardball Talk - No cash in the Wells deal. It ought to be a fun press conference.

Jonah Keri of Fangraphs - Also, Alex Anthopoulos is a ninja: http://3.ly/km98 / AL East should just secede and form its own omnipotent nation.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs - I did not think it was possible for the Angels off-season to get any worse. Boy, was I wrong.

Larry Stone of Seattle Times - If Angels are picking up all $86 million owed Wells, plus giving up Napoli and maybe Rivera, they're nuts

Erik Manning of Fangraphs - There is not a snark strong enough to describe the Wells-for-Napoli deal, at least at the moment.

As you can see, everyone's reaction to the trade was rather scathing and snarky.  There is not a single person on my Twitter roll that liked the trade--and no, I didn't just conveniently choose not to include them.  Nice job Angels.  You've given Brian Sabean a reason to believe he can unload Barry Zito's contract. 

Blue Jays to Kick in $5M with Wells to Angels

Despite reports to the contrary last night, it appears the Blue Jays will be kicking in some money into the Wells to Anaheim deal.   According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Blue Jays will be sending $5M to the Angels to help cover Wells's contract--or as Heyman eloquently puts it, "about a month and a half" of the remaining four years.  Yikes!

This is a major coup for the Blue Jays and their GM Alex Anthopolous as they somehow managed to spin one of the most untradable contracts in baseball history into a power hitting catcher and league average starting corner outfielder.  Usually when a team has the opportunity to trade away a bad contract, it's usually for another bad contract.  (Think Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva)  Not so in this case.  Rather than face the next four years of having to pay Wells $86M, Blue Jays instead get two relatively cheap players both of whom are one year away from free agency.  To say that the Angels and GM Tony Reaggins got fleeced would be like saying Bernie Madoff accidentally misplaced the $40B he received from investors.  The Angels got flat out robbed by the Blue Jays.

By the way, did anyone else realize that the AL East is absolutely stacked with great GMs?  When you can make a case that Orioles President/GM Andy McPhail is your weakest link, you know you're living in a world with titans.  It's almost unfair to the rest of the league.

Napoli to Jays for...Wells?

UPDATE (1/21/2011 at 9:14 p.m.):  And the hits keep on coming.  Did Jim Hendry get hired to be the Angels GM while I was sleeping last night?

According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Blue Jays are not kicking in any money in the deal sending Vernon Wells to the Angels.  In case, you've forgotten, Wells has four years and $86M remaining on the seven year $126M deal he signed in December 2006.   To date, Wells has only produced 5.5 WAR under the current deal.  To say he's woefully underperformed would be an understatement of mass proportions. 

In case you're keeping score, the Angels have a rather expensive outfield next season with Wells making $23M, Hunter making $18M, Matthews making $11M, and (likely) Peter Bourjos making around $500K.  All told, they're spending around $52.5M in exchange for $32M in performance based value (projected).  Oh, and Gary Matthews, Jr. isn't even on the team anymore.  Simply awful.

This trade has to go down as one of the worst in recent memory.  Great move by the Blue Jays.   

UPDATE (1/21/2011 at 9:02 p.m.):  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels will be sending outfielder Juan Rivera to the Blue Jays alone with Mike Napoli.   Last season, Rivera produced a .314 wOBA, 15 home runs, and 0.5 WAR.

Original Post (1/21/2011 at 7:25 p.m.):  Well, I certainly wasn't expecting this.  About an hour ago, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that Mike Napoli had been traded to the Blue Jays.  This report set the Twitter world afire with tweets questioning the Angels motivation and direction.  After missing out on Crawford, Lee, and Beltre, trading one of their only offensive forces seemed like a really bad move.

It's been long known that despite Napoli's offensive prowess, he'd fallen out of favor with Angels manager Mike Scioscia who prefers the light-hitting defensive oriented Jeff Mathis behind the dish.  Rumors started flying late last season about Napoli potentially being traded to the Red Sox at the August 31st waiver deadline, but nothing ever materialized.  Rumors persisted into the offseason, but again, they fizzled out.  Now, amidst the backdrop of a silent Angels front office, they finally make the move.

So what prompted such swift action?  Rosenthal opines, and I tend to agree, that Napoli's arbitration request likely set the whole process in motion.  According to reports, Napoli requested $6.1M, and the Angels countered with $5.3M.  Considering the chilly relationship between the two parties, it's pretty likely they wouldn't have come to an agreement before the mid-February deadline.  Thus, they would've been forced to plead their case before an arbitrator.  Despite the downturn in Napoli's triple slash stats (.238/.316/.468) last season, he still managed to mash 26 home runs in 453 at bats.  An arbitrator likely would've looked at Napoli's 26 home run, and given the man his money.  If Napoli was going to be a starting player next season, a $6.1M salary would probably not have been an issue, but that's not the case.  First baseman Kendry Morales is healthy, and should be ready to start the season.  Jeff Mathis is firmly entrenched as the team's primary catcher.  The Angels have taken serious looks at signing either Manny Ramirez or Vlad Guerrero to fill their DH needs.  Unless someone gets hurt, there doesn't appear to be a lot of playing time for Napoli.  Thus, he had to go.

Now, here comes the really surprising part of this trade.  According to a source close to the trade talks, Blue Jays center fielder Vernon Wells will be included in the trade.  Talk about burying a lead.  Oops.  What makes this so shocking is that Wells had what was widely considered to be one of the most untradeable contracts in baseball.  Considering Arte Moreno's recent frugality with regards to offering large contracts to big named free agents, it strikes me as odd that he'd be willing to trade for a 32 year old outfielder that has four years and $68M remaining on his current seven year $126 albatross of a deal.  Apparently offering $20M per season to an outstanding 29 year old outfielder (Crawford) is wrong, but paying a less talented 32 year old outfielder (Wells) $21.5M is just fine.  Then again, the Angels probably aren't absorbing the entire $86M remaining on Wells' contract.  So far, there's no word on how much of the contract the Blue Jays will have to eat.  Unless the Blue Jays have agreed to eat at least half, I'm not sure I understand how this benefits the Angels.

Despite the 4.0 WAR season Wells put up last season, he's been far from a "sure thing" when it comes to performance.  In the three seasons prior to 2010, he put up exactly 3.0 wins above the replacement level combined, including a 0.0 WAR in 2009.  Considering the ridiculous amount of money he earned during that time, that kind of production is unacceptable.  At 32, Wells doesn't do a whole lot of things well.  He doesn't hit for average, get on base, or play defense at an acceptable level in center field.  He does hit for power, but a lot of that power is derived from the homer happy environment that exists at the Rogers Center.  Angels Stadium is a neutral park, so we shouldn't expect to see a repeat performance of his 31 homer season in 2011.  As he continues to progress into his 30s, we should expect his skills to decline further, while his salary escalates.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this is a losing proposition for the Angels.  Considering the skill set Wells currently employs, it wouldn't surprise me to see him riding the bench (a la Gary Matthews Jr.) before the end of his contract.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Angels will be paying both Wells and Matthews Jr. next season.  Yikes!