Pavano, Twins Finally Come to Terms

FINALLY!  It's official.  Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune reports that the Twins and Carl Pavano have finally come to terms on a two year contract that will pay him $16.5M.  There's nothing new for me to add that I haven't already said at least 1000 times already, so I won't bore you my regurgitated anecdotes.  The long, national nightmare is finally over. 

Ugh.  I can't believe I've written three posts today about Carl freaking Pavano.  I feel like I need a shower...

Cashman Considers a Second Crack at Pavano?

Yes, Carl.  We're just as confused by the news as you are...

UPDATE (1/19/2011 at 2:25 p.m.):  According to WFAN, the Yankees offered Carl Pavano a one year deal worth $10M plus incentives.  Did the Yankees forget how bad the Carl Pavano era was?  I'm asking a serious question.  That's the only reasonable explanation I'm willing to accept.


Original Post (1/19/2011 at 2:12 p.m.):  There's more news on Carl Pavano, and this one will probably scare the crap out of Yankee fans everywhere.  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees had "several discussions" with Carl Pavano.

"Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters Wednesday that he had “several discussions” with the agent for free-agent right-hander Carl Pavano, who endured four trying seasons in New York from 2005 to ’08.  Pavano, in turn, seriously considered returning to the Yankees, according to major-league sources, even telling friends at one point that he intended to rejoin the team.  The Yankees explored a one-year deal with Pavano at a high salary, sources said. The talks fizzled when the Twins guaranteed Pavano a second year - an important consideration for a pitcher who is 35."

Yankee fans can rest easy knowing their worst nightmare was avoided simply because the Twins decided to add a second year.  Crisis averted.

Almost There...

I know exactly how you feel Carl.  Now, SIGN ALREADY!

Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune provided an update on the long, drawn out, torturous negotiations between Carl Pavano and the Twins.

#Twins and Pavano are very close to a new deal, working on final details. Bill Smith said today, "I think we're in the home stretch here."

Oh my god!  Seriously?  Will this ever end?  They've been "close" for about a month now!  I know it's going to happen at some point, but come on.  Yes, that's right.  That's all I have left to say:  "Come on."  Pavano better break the bank on this one.  Otherwise, I'm going to be pissed.

Luckily, we have incomparable Craig Calcaterra to provide a little bit of humor to the situation.  Thankfully, he provided this amusing, yet oddly irritating video that will have you both laughing and ready to throw your computer at the wall.  You have to watch the whole thing to get the full effect, so don't give up half way through the video.  Enjoy!

Carl Pavano Update

For the last couple of weeks, everyone thought Pavano had two serious suitors:  the Twins and Nationals.  Then, earlier this week, Tom Boswell of the Washington Post reported that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told him that they weren't even talking to Pavano's people.

I hear we are “the finalist” along with the Twins. We’ve never spoken to Pavano and we haven’t talked to his agent since the winter meetings.

Interesting.  I'm not sure if he's trying to save face here, but it does explain why there haven't been any reports about meetings being held or offers being made to Pavano  Plus, despite the Nationals obvious need for starting pitching, I never really understood how Pavano fit into their plans.  If you're going to sign a 35 year old pitcher like Pavano, you should do it to add depth to the middle or back end of your rotation.  The Nats would be signing him to front their rotation.  While Pavano is good enough to serve as the staff ace on a non-contender, it doesn't make any sense to sign him based on the contract he's demanding.  The Nationals will not be a contender by the time his contract expires, so it's probably smarter for them to save up their money for a talent that will have greater long-term impact.

In other Pavano news...

According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, Carl Pavano could finally make a decision about the Twins offer by Monday or Tuesday...or three weeks from now.  Who knows really?  These negotiations have been moving at a snail's pace, and it's not like he's fielding several others.  On January 6th, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweeted that the Twins "were closing in on Pavano."  That was nine days ago.  Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI tweeted that a Twins "deal could happen any day now."  Thanks for the info Heyman, but I'll believe it when I see it. 

I know the deal is inevitable, but there's no reason why it should be taking so long.  Part of me wonders if Pavano's team is stringing this along in hopes that another team will get involved, thus forcing the Twins to improve their offer.  It's not going to happen.  There just aren't a lot of teams interested in signing an oft-injured, 35 year old pitcher to a multi-year deal.

An Alternative Look at the Twins Rotation

Last week when Josh released his Top Ten Worst Rotations - 2011 Edition, I asked the same question many of you are asking now.  Do the Twins really have the ninth worst rotation in baseball?  I certainly didn't think so, and I definitely did not agree with him describing their number 2-5 starters as a "dumpster fire".   The Common Man of the The Platoon Advantage was the first to comment on Josh's oversight, and I thought he was spot on.

"I cannot stress how off you are about the Twins' rotation. Liriano is a legit number one. He had one elbow surgery four seasons ago, has worked his way back, and has been healthy since then. Baker is a solid number 2, whose 4.49 ERA is largely because of the often horrific outfield defense behind him. Slowey gets hurt a little too often, and gives up a few too many homers, but is similarly hurt by the outfield defense. His peripherals are very strong. Duensing has shown a nice K/BB ratio while keeping 52% of the balls hit off him on the ground. And Blackburn. Well, Blackburn's just not very good. He's not a terrible #5, but if the Twins do end up signing Pavano that's a non-issue.

And I'm not sure how the Astros and maybe the Cubs and Tigers aren't ranked lower."

The first thing I want to point out is that the Astros, Cubs, and Tigers have all worse rotations than the Twins--much worse.  The Astros in particular.  Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ, Bud Norris, and Nelson Figueroa are nice pitchers, but I can't think of anyone that would be psyched to have all five in their rotation at the same time.  Rodriguez and Myers are both solid number threes; Happ and Norris are potential fours; and Figueroa is probably a fringy number five.  Any rotation without a legitimate ace or number two starter definitely belongs in the bottom ten.  The Twins, on the other hand, have an ace, two number threes, a number four, and a number five.  Let's take a closer look at each member of their rotation.

Francisco Liriano - 14-10, 3.62/2.66/3.06, 9.44 K/9, 3.47 K/BB, 53.6% GB, 6.0 fWAR

In 2010, Liriano showed that he was finally fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery he had four years prior.  His performance was so impressive that I named him as my third place finisher on my theoretical Cy Young ballot ahead of Jon Lester and C.C. Sabathia.  Some of you might think that I'm absolutely crazy for picking him third, but there were few pitchers as dominant last year in the American League as Liriano.  Need proof?  He finished first in xFIP, second in FIP, second in K/9, fifth in K/BB, and fourth in WAR.  While he was a little lucky on home runs (6.3% HR/FB rate vs. a league average of 10.5%), he was incredibly unlucky on balls put into play (.340 BABIP vs. .303 xBABIP).  As TCM pointed out, his poor BABIP was largely due to the Twins atrocious outfield defense.

Liriano has command of three pitches, which includes an average fastball, an above average to good change-up, and a plus-slider that induces a ton of whiffs.  Going into his age-27 season, it wouldn't be surprising to see him give an encore performance of his 2010 season.  Liriano is a true ace.

Scott Baker - 12-9, 4.49/3.96/4.02, 7.82 K/9, 3.82 K/BB, 35.6% GB, 2.5 fWAR

Scott Baker is an incredibly underappreciated pitcher that does a lot of things very well that go largely unnoticed.  He strikes batters out at a rate that's slightly above average; limits walks; and keeps the ball in the yard despite having a GB/FB ratio that's typically in the 0.7-0.8 range.  The biggest problem with Baker (and this will be the case with a few of the Twins pitchers) is that he's a fly ball pitcher on a team that has a terrible tandem of outfielders, particularly at the corners.  His .323 BABIP backs up that claim.  Looking a little deeper, I found that Baker's BABIP on fly balls was 58 points higher than expected (.198 vs. an expected .140).  This means he gave up 13 more hits than he was expected to give up.  Depending on the context of the situation in which those hits were given up, it's possible those hits accounted for an additional 6-10 runs allowed.  With a league average outfield defense, I have no doubt that the difference between Baker's ERA and FIP would be rather insignificant.

Baker has good command of four pitches:  a fastball, slider, change-up, and curve.  His fastball is effective and sits in the low 90s, while his slider induces the bulk of his whiffs.  His 11-5 curve ball is slightly above average, and has been a "plus" pitch by Fangraphs run value standards in the past.  His change-up is primarily a "show" pitch.

Baker is probably better suited to be a number three starter, but he's still an acceptable option at the two slot in the rotation. 

Carl Pavano - 17-11, 3.75/4.02/4.01, 4.76 K/9, 3.16 K/BB, 51.2% GB, 3.2 fWAR

I should start by saying that when Josh wrote his article, it was December 31st.  Pavano had not yet come to terms on a two year deal.  (He still hasn't officially signed, but he's close enough for the purpose of this exercise.)  After four gruesome, injury filled seasons in New York, Pavano has spent the last two seasons reinventing himself.  Pavano has a spectacular control (finished second in BB/9 rate in each of the last two seasons), induces a ton of ground balls, and keeps the ball in the yard.  His 4.76 K/9 rate (a 28% decline from his 2009 rate) is a bit alarming, but it shouldn't be a problem as long as he keeps his ground ball rate above 50%, and his BB/9 rate in the 1.50-1.75 range.

He has command of three pitches, including an average fastball, solid slider, and a plus-change up (by Fangraphs run value standards).  Despite the fact Pavano will be entering his age-35 season in 2011, I don't see any reason to expect to see too much performance related regression.  Pavano is still a solid number three starter.

Kevin Slowey - 13-6, 4.45/3.98/4.48, 6.71 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 28.3% GB, 2.2 fWAR

Kevin Slowey is a slightly less talented version of Scott Baker.  He's an extreme fly ball pitcher with outstanding control and a strikeout rate that sits right around league average.  Slowey's biggest problem is that he can't seem to avoid the injury bug.  Over the last three-plus seasons, he's missed around 25 starts due to assorted wrist and elbow ailments.  To date, he hasn't pitched enough innings (162 innings) to qualify him for the ERA title--not that he would've won the crown anyway.  While this may end up being just a rash of unfortunate injuries, I'm starting to wonder if his injury pattern is symptomatic of something larger.  It's possible he's a brittle pitcher.  Still, he's only 26, so he has plenty of time to right the ship on the injury front.

Other than injuries, the one thing keeping Slowey from being something other than a mid-to-back end starting pitcher is his fly ball rate.  For his career, he's produced a 48.1% fly ball rate and a 0.66 GB/FB ratio.  Maybe it's just me, but those numbers are pretty alarming.  While his career HR/FB rate (10%) is right around expectations, his fly ball rate implies that he'll allow 30-35 home runs per season, assuming he pitches approximately 200 innings.  Combining a high home run rate with a below average contact rate could be a recipe for disaster, particularly if Slowey sees a regression in his ability to limit walks.  At this point though, it's not a problem.

Slowey has command of four pitches, but he lives and dies off of his fastball that sits 87-91 MPH.  He throws his slider and curve ball a fair amount, but both are average pitches.  His change-up is mostly a "show" pitch, but that's a good thing because it's largely ineffective.  If he could develop his change-up, it could become a solid weapon for him; thus allowing him to induce more ground balls.

Slowey is a prototypical number four starter that should provide 2.5 wins above the replacement level assuming he can stay healthy.  

Brian Duensing - 10-3, 2.62/3.85/4.10, 5.37 K/9, 2.23 K/BB, 52.9% GB, 1.7 fWAR

At first glance, it might be tempting to call Duensing the Twins version of Joe Saunders, but that's not exactly fair.  Duensing is much better.  Despite the fact Duensing's ERA greatly outperformed his FIP and xFIP; his BABIP (.276) was well below the expected .300 average; and his strand rate was above 80%, his 2010 performance isn't entirely a mirage.  Will his performance regress to the mean?  Absolutely.  No one should expect an encore performance in 2011.  Still, there's plenty to like about his performance--especially out of the five spot in the rotation.

Like every other member of the Twins starting rotation, Duensing does a few things incredibly well.  In particular, he induces ground balls at a rate above 50% and limits walks.  While he doesn't induce a lot of swinging strikes, his contact rate is still within the acceptable range.  His HR/FB ratio has fallen below the expected range of 9-11% in each of his first two seasons, so he may see some regression in this category next season.  Then again, he may not.  He may end up like one of those pitchers who consistently outperforms the league in this category like Mark Buehrle and Jarrod Washburn.  The fact that he pitches half of his games at Target Field, the most difficult park in which to hit a home run last season, certainly helps him in that capacity. 

Duensing has command of four pitches: a fastball, curve, slider, and change-up.  He throws his fastball about 60% of the time.  It's league average in terms of it's effectiveness and sits 89-93 MPH.  His slider has proven to be very effective, and has been worth 20.1 runs in the 214 innings he's pitched in the majors so far.  His change-up is somewhat of a mixed bag, and his curve is nothing more than a "show" pitch.

All-in-all, he's a solid number five starter that has the potential to be a solid number four if he can figure out a way to cut his walk rate by 30-40%. 

While I respect Josh's opinion, I greatly disagree with his assessment of the Twins rotation.  While I haven't done a full analysis of the league, I figure they probably rank within the top dozen teams of the league.  There is a lot more talent in the rotation than his "dumpster fire" comment would lead you to believe.

And Then There Were Two...

Howard Sinker of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Carl Pavano has narrowed his selection down to two teams.

From all we hear, Carl Pavano now has to choose between two teams -- the Twins and Washington.

The hang-up is supposed to be that Pavano wants a three-year deal and teams are unwilling to go beyond two for a pitcher who will turn 35 in January and -- as much as Twins fans cherish the 17 victories in 2010 and his veteran presence -- still has a four-year black hole in his career from the Yankees contract.  Any general manager who ignores that 145 innings-for-$39 million bust, regardless of what's happened since, is not exercising reasonable caution.

The solution is pretty obvious, a two-year deal with some kind of option for 2013.

I think Sinker is right.  Unless Mike Rizzo gets another case of the crazies, and offers him a three year deal with a full no-trade clause,Pavano will likely sign a two year deal with a option for a third year.  It seems like only a matter of time before he signs with the Twins.  With Mauer, Morneau, and Lirano in tow, the Twins are legitimate contenders for a title.  If that's not enough, Pavano doesn't want to leave.  It just makes too much sense.  The Nationals seem like nothing more than a pawn being used to drive up the price on the Twins.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal done within the next week.

Checking in on Pavano

According to Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe there are three, maybe four, teams still interested in right-handed starting pitcher Carl Pavano:

Pavano elected to go slowly in negotiations and let the market play out, so there was no deal before Christmas. Now what? Well, he remains the top free agent pitcher on the market and will hold out for three years. A lot of teams are interested, including Minnesota, Washington, Texas, and possibly Seattle if it can free up some money.

With Brandon Webb signing with the Rangers yesterday evening, we can pull them out of the running for Pavano.  They could surprise me and make a run at Pavano (they do have money to burn), but I don't see them being interested in signing another injury riddled right-hander who is on the wrong side of 30.  That is, unless he's willing to take a two year deal at a slightly reduced price. 

The Mariners don't seem like a great bet either.  This is especially true considering I haven't seen any reports indicating the Mariners are even casually interested in bringing Pavano to Seattle.  This, of course, doesn't mean they aren't interested.  It just means it's less likely to be interested.  Furthermore, I'm not sure it's in the best interested of the Mariners to sign Pavano.  Currently, they're a rebuilding team with a below average rotation that's projected to be 70-75 win team in 2011.  Even with Pavano in the mix, they're still a rebuilding team with a below average rotation.  Signing him maybe adds 2-3 wins onto their year end total.  If signing Pavano doesn't make them a legitimate playoff contender (and it likely won't), it's probably more prudent for the Mariners to save their money for a rainy day.  Until we hear otherwise, we should probably assume the race for Pavano is of the two team variety.

That leaves the Twins and Nationals as the de facto front runners.  After throwing $126M and a full no-trade clause at right fielder Jayson Werth, they were rumored to be more than slightly interested in signing this year's premier free agent starting pitcher, Cliff Lee.  Lee ended signing with the Phillies, so the money they had earmarked still remains.  The Nationals shallow rotation is currently headed up Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis, so obviously, they have a need for another starter.  Normally, I would suggest they follow the same path I suggested for the Mariners, but it's clear their not interested in making rational signings--only big splashes.  The Twins, knowing Pavano is interested in remaining in the Twin Cities, have a huge edge on their end of the negotiations.  Until their hand is forced, they have no reason to offer Pavano a contract beyond two years.  If Pavano has any chance of getting a three year contract this year, he'll probably have to convince Nationals GM Mike Rizzo to blink first.

The longer Pavano waits to sign a deal, the more his situation becomes reminiscent of Joel Pineiro's situation from last offseason.  The difference between the two situations is that Pineiro was coming off an unlikely comeback season that followed five seasons of ineffectiveness.  Pavano, of course, has a two year track record of success after his four year run of ineffectiveness.  A few have speculated that interested teams are reluctant to sign Pavano to a three year deal based on his performance during his four year deal with the Yankees.  While that might be a legitimate reason, I think teams are far more concerned about giving a three year deal to a player at his age and injury history.  In all likelihood, I think Pavano ends up signing a two year contract, especially if negotiations extend beyond the BCS title game on January 10th.

Potential Targets for the Yankees

When Cliff Lee spurned the Yankees 6 year $138M offer to pitch in Philadelphia, most baseball insiders figured they would use their prospect rich farm system to land an ace (or near ace) quality pitcher to fill the major hole in their starting rotation.  Since that time, several big name pitchers have come off of the board:  Zach Greinke was traded to the Brewers; Ricky Nolasco signed an extension with the Marlins; reports surfaced that there was a 30% chance of long-time Yankee Andy Pettitte returning to baseball; and Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez were both declared unavailable by their respective General Managers.

Now that most of the true (or near) aces are unavailable, who do the Yankees target now?  Luckily for you, I have a few ideas:

Chad Billingsley - When Billingsley, 26, came up through the Dodger organization, many scouts saw him as the future ace of their starting pitching staff.  Despite immense talent, he seems to have fallen out of favor in Los Angeles.  Why that is, I'll never know.  Billingsley is a power pitcher who induces a lot of whiffs and ground balls.  He has struggled with his control at times in his career, but he's shown improvement in this area registering a career low BB/9 rate of 3.24 in 2010.  While his fastball could be best described as average, he has control of four secondary pitches.  His cutter and 12-6 curve ball are both plus pitches that induce weak contact and a lot of swinging strikes.  He also has a good slider and change-up, but he typically uses those as "show" pitches.

Billingsley put together an excellent season in 2010 going 12-11 with a 3.57 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 8.03 K/9, 2.48 K/BB, while providing 4.6 fWAR in value.  With two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, he should be very reasonably priced in comparison to comparable arms on the free agent market.  He looks like a great fit between Sabathia and Hughes in the rotation.

Joe Blanton - This is a pretty interesting option for the Yankees because it looks like the Phillies are willing to do anything to unload the $17M they owe him over the next two seasons; thus, he's not likely to cost much in terms of prospects.  Blanton is a solid middle to back of the rotation starter who neither induces a lot of whiffs or eats a lot of innings, but still maintains above average control.  He tends to give up more of his fair share of home runs (considering his fly ball rate), but that is partly due to the pinball machine of a ballpark he currently calls home.  Blanton primarily relies on his poor fastball, but also mixes in four other pitches in his repertoire.  His slider and change-up are above average, and occasionally reach "plus" status.  His curve ball and cutter are mostly "show" pitches that tend to be more effective than not.

Blanton threw only 175 innings last season due to injuries.  He still managed to go 9-6 with a 4.82 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 6.87 K/9, 3.12 K/BB while providing 1.9 fWAR in value.  Like I mentioned above, his contract is reasonable, and he's unlikely to cost a lot in return.  This might be a decent, albeit unspectacular, move for the Yankees.  Ultimately, he would slot in best behind Burnett as the number four starter in the rotation.

Mark Buehrle - I have to admit, I was surprised to see Buehrle was only 31 years old.  For some reason, I thought he was older.  Maybe it's because it feels like he's been in the league forever.  Anyway...  Buehrle's not an ace anymore.  In fact, one could make a great argument that he never was an ace.  He's not going to rack up high strikeout totals, eye popping radar gun numbers, or superb ground ball rates.  What he will give you is solid, steady production out of the number three spot in the rotation.  Buehrle works quickly, avoids home runs, and is one of the best in the business when it comes to limiting walks.   He has four primary pitches:  an effective fastball, solid change-up and a cutter and curve ball that have become less effective over the past couple of years.  He has a decent slider, but like Billingsley, it's a "show" pitch.

Buehrle put up his typical steady season with the White Sox last year.  He went 13-13 with a 4.28 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.24 K/9, 2.02 K/BB, while providing 3.8 fWAR in value.  Buehrle is under contract for one more season at $14M.  Due to his contract situation and undervalued skill set, it's possible the Yankees could pick him up for the relatively cheap cost of a B and a C grade prospect.  He would slot in nicely between Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett as the number three starter.

Matt Garza - Let me start out by saying that the Yankees are unlikely to acquire Garza because they'd have to grossly overpay to the Rays to trade him within their division.  Still, Garza has become known as a "Red Sox killer" throughout the league, so there's definitely a benefit to the Yankees making a deal.  Garza is about to enter his age-27 season, so he still his prime in front of him.  He has good fastball velocity that is still on the rise, and has ace quality stuff.  (Garza's problem is widely considered to be his mental make-up.  He tends to be easily frustrated, which causes him to implode at times.)  While Garza relies largely on his plus-fastball, he has three solid secondary pitches including his plus-slider and average change-up and curve ball. 

Garza had a solid year last year, despite a plummeting strikeout rate, which isn't a great sign for a pitcher that tends to allow more fly balls than ground balls.  In 2010, he went 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 6.60 K/9, 2.38 K/BB, while providing 1.8 fWAR in value.  Based on his age, I think it's likely he reverts back to the (much better) pitcher we saw in 2009.  This is especially true if he's traded to a National League team.  Garza is in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and (as a super two) has another three years of eligibility left.  This makes him a very attractive, cost-controllable candidate going forward.  Ultimately, I think he'd fit best slotting in as the number two for now, while eventually taking on the number three slot in the Yankee rotation by the start of 2012 or 2013.

Derek Lowe - Most Yankee fans remember Lowe for his masterful performance in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS while with the Red Sox.  Like Buehrle, Lowe is not an ace.  Still, he's a steady middle of the rotation starter that could provide some depth to the relatively shallow Yankee rotation.  As a true ground ball pitcher, Lowe will induce ground balls at a rate of 55-60%.  Lowe has four primary pitches:  an average fastball, plus-sinker, an above average change-up, and a fringy slider.  He doesn't induce a lot of whiffs, but he is capable of racking up surprising strikeout totals for a pitcher with his skill set.

After a tough first season with the Braves in 2009, Lowe bounced back in 2010.  He put up a 16-12 record with a 4.00 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 6.32 K/9, 2.23 K/BB, and provided 2.7 fWAR in value.   Derek Lowe still has two years and $30M remaining on the 4 year contract he signed in January 2009.  Going into his age-38 season, there is a little more risk involved in trading for Lowe.  Still, he's be a nice pick-up provided the price was reasonable.  Like Buehrle, Lowe slot in nicely between Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett as the number three starter.

Carl Pavano - Been there.  Done that.  This isn't happening.

Ideally, Billingsley would be the best fit in New York, although Buehrle would be a great pickup as well.  If anyone has any other reasonable trade targets for the Yankees, please send them my way.  Again, this is all speculation and projection.  I haven't seen any rumors stating the Yankees have interest (or are in talks to acquire) in any of these players.

How Does the Greinke Trade Affect Pavano's Prospects?

With Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies and Zach Greinke being traded to the Brewers, Carl Pavano can finally claim that he (and he alone) is the undisputed "best starting pitcher available" on the free agent market.  That's kind of sad if you think about it.  It's only December 19th, and the best available pitcher is Carl (bleeping) Pavano?  It just goes to show how weak this year's free agent pitching crop has been.

Zach Greinke's trade to Milwaukee will probably end up having a pretty large effect on the Carl Pavano contract drive.  As I reported ten days ago, the Brewers were in "very productive discussions" with Pavano and his agent on a contract that would bring him to the Cream City.*  Contract talks never got very far because Milwaukee was reluctant to offer a guaranteed third year to Pavano.  Presumably they had concerns about giving a three year contract to a pitcher that was on the wrong side of 30.  This shouldn't be surprising considering how well the Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf signings have worked out.  Now that they've acquired Greinke, this seems to be a moot point.  The Brew Crew's rotation is full, and there's no room for Pavano or his salary.

* Yes, that actually is one of the nicknames for Milwaukee.  Others included Brew City, Mil Town, City of Festivals, and "The Only American City to Elect Three Socialist Mayors."  Ok.  That last one isn't actually one of Milwaukee's nicknames, but it is a fact. 

So where does Pavano go from here?  Well, I hear the Yankees are in need of a starting pitcher.  (snicker)  I'm just kidding of course.  I'm sure Brian Cashman would find walking through the South Bronx projects late at night while flashing $50K in bling more appealing than re-sign Pavano.  Also, I'm pretty sure he'd get fired for even cracking a joke about signing Pavano, so the Yankees are definitely out.

The Rangers look like a decent fit.  They definitely have money to spend after losing out on both Cliff Lee and Zach Greinke.  Now that most of the big targets are off of the board, it's unclear how much money the Rangers will be willing to spend this offseason.  They may decide that it's wiser to save up their money for when Prince Fielder hits the market after the 2011 season.  Currently, the Rangers are reported to be interested in Adrian Beltre and Vlad Guerrero as well.  If Pavano is interested in signing with them, he may need to move with some urgency. 

The Nationals are also reported to be interested in Pavano.  They've been pretty active throughout the offseason on some of the biggest targets.  They made a huge splash with the Jayson Werth signing; were involved in the Cliff Lee bidding; and nearly traded for Zach Greinke before he invoked his no trade clause.  With Stephen Strasburg expected to miss the entire 2011 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Nationals rotation is full of bottom of the rotation and replacement level starters.  (Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis are projected to be their top two starters.  Ouch!)  The Nationals will likely be very aggressive in acquiring Pavano, and may be willing to overpay. 

According to several reports by Pavano's teammates, he's indicated would prefer to stay in the Twin Cities.  As such, the Twins seem to be the odds on favorite to retain Pavano.  With Greinke being traded to one of Pavano's most ardent suitors (Brewers), this could actually give the Twins a little bit of extra leverage when it comes to contract negotiations.  Pavano is reported to be looking a contract similar to the one Ted Lilly signed with the Dodgers in November (3 years $33M).  With the Brewers out of the running, the Twins might be able to negotiate Pavano down to 3 years at $10M per season.  While it remains to be seen what his other suitors are willing to offer, this seems like a very reasonable contract for someone with Pavano's talent.  Still, this scenario seems somewhat unlikely.  This year's free agent market has turned out heavily favor the players.  In the end, Pavano would probably be smart to hold out for another couple of weeks in hopes of triggering a bidding war between interested parties.

Brewers, Pavano in Talks

Best mustache this side of Ned Colletti

Now that Cliff Lee is poised to make a decision this weekend, Carl Pavano becomes the premier pitcher remaining on the market.  That's kind of scary if you think about it.  Anyway... 

The Brewers and Pavano have been involved in "very productive" discussions over the last few days:

“I thought it went well,” said O’Connell, who along with Pavano met with Brewers general manager Doug Melvin and assistant general manager Gord Ash. “It was a very productive meeting. They gave us a view of the organization and how Carl would fit in their rotation. They talked about Milwaukee and what they have to offer. It was a very educational meeting, a positive experience.”

Pavano is reportedly looking for a 3 year $33M deal similar to the one the Dodgers gave to Ted Lilly in October.  The Brewers are reluctant to go beyond two years at this point.  They've had poor luck (read: have made terrible decisions) in giving out contracts to free agent pitchers on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.  (See Jeff Suppan, Randy Wolf) 

I can understand the Brewers apprehension with giving Pavano, who will turn 35 in January, three years.  Considering his age and injury history, Pavano's not a great bet to provide enough value to justify his next contract.  I like Pavano.  I love the way he's rebuilt his career over the past two seasons, providing 6.9 WAR over that time.  That said, if Pavano was demanding three years from my team, I would have to pass.

Pavano is said to have met with four teams, with one of those teams being the Washington Nationals.  The market for Pavano will likely continue to be slow for the next few days, while the Lee situation gets sorted out.  Once it does, expect a deal to come together within a week.