The Specuation of King Felix

Yesterday, ESPN’s Buster Olney released his top storylines of 2011 to watch.  This one, in particular, caught my eye.

8. The Felix Hernandez watch. This is a situation that currently lies dormant, because Hernandez -- who is just 24 years old -- is signed through the 2014 season, and nothing is really pushing the Seattle Mariners to trade the guy who would probably be the first pitcher taken by 30 general managers if you threw all the players into one giant fantasy draft. Hernandez earned a lot of respect for the way he pitched and battled in 2010 despite getting the kind of run support typical of an early 20th century team, and so long as Hernandez doesn't push the issue, it's hard to imagine Seattle seeking a satisfactory deal. But remember: Johan Santana eventually forced his way out of Minnesota; Halladay quietly pushed his way out of Toronto; and Zack Greinke's impatience with the Royals eventually led to his trade to Milwaukee. Those vultures you see circling the Mariners will be the executives of other teams waiting for any sign that King Felix wants to change thrones.

Several members of the baseball media have echoed similar sentiments, but I just don’t see it.  In reality, this seems more like a storyline writers want to see come to fruition rather than one that actually will.  I don’t blame baseball writers for speculating.  The baseball news cycle is incredibly slow, so I understand their thirst for fresh storylines.  Still, speculating about the “uncertainty” of a stable situation appears nonsensical.

Olney used Santana, Halladay, and Greinke as viable comparisons to the King Felix situation, but I don’t really think that’s entirely fair.  In the cases of Santana and Halladay, both were entering the final year of their contract, and didn’t want the added pressure of pitching out the year without an extension.  Since their current teams weren’t willing to meet their salary demands, requesting a trade to a team willing to meet their demands was the only option.  As it stands, both pitchers were traded to teams that immediately signed them to the extensions they desired. 

With Zach Greinke, the circumstances were a little different.  At the time of Greinke’s trade, he still had two years remaining on the four year extension he’d signed prior to the 2009 season.  While it’s true Greinke formerly requested a trade, the Royals were already exploring that option, and had been for a few weeks.  Their decision to trade Greinke had little to with his demands.  If they didn’t trade him prior to the season, he had little recourse outside of retiring or holding out.*  If the Royals had been so inclined, they could’ve remained patient, and allowed the demand for his services to skyrocket—even if it meant waiting until the July 31^st trading deadline or beyond.  Instead, their motivation had more to do with reality that (a) the Royals wouldn’t be playoff contenders by the end of his contract, and (b) they wouldn’t be able to re-sign him due to the going rate of ace quality pitchers on the free agent market.  Rather receive nothing in compensation by letting him leave via free agency after 2012, the Royals decided to trade him for four prospects that could help them build a team worthy of playoff contention starting in 2013. 

* Retiring is an irrational reaction to a reasonable situation, and likely would end up backfiring.  Holding out would result not only in an unpaid suspension and fines, but also in a precipitous drop in his trade value.  Obviously, neither of those are good options. 

Felix Hernandez’s situation is completely different from the three pitchers named above.  Hernandez still has four years remaining on the 5 year $78M extension he signed prior the start of the 2010 season.  This gives them an opportunity to be patient.  They have ample time to build their farm system, and put together a roster capable of contending when Hernandez is reaching his career peak.  Plus, it’s not like he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the 2011 season.  No intelligent General Manager trades away a player of his talent when there’s not a pressing need to do so.  That is, unless he’s able to bring back a King’s Ransom--no pun intended.  To date, I haven’t heard of any proposals that would meet that mark.

Mariners Have "No Interest" in Trading King Felix

To those still harboring hopes that the Yankees might be able to complete a trade for 2010 Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik seems to have other plans.

 “I have no interest in trading Felix,” Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik told the Daily News Wednesday. “He’s a true ace, a true No. 1, and those are difficult to find. We’re very happy to have him here.”

Just for fun, let's compare his statement to the one Dayton Moore made two weeks ago just prior to trading Zach Greinke to the Brewers.

“I haven’t made one call to one organization asking them if they’re interested in Zack Greinke.”

Do you see the difference between the two statements?  While Zduriencik's intentions are very clear with regards to his position on King Felix, Moore's intentions regarding Greinke were carefully crafted and purposely misleading.  There's absolutely nothing wrong with Moore's comments, but it's important to note the differences.  This is a great example of how to wade through the bullshit and double talk most agents, GMs, and owners spew during the Hot Stove season.  

Despite the rampant speculation by Yankee fans and members of the baseball media, I can't think of a single rational reason why the Mariners would be interested in trading away a dominant soon-to-be 25 year old starting pitcher who's under contract with a reasonable salary for another four years.  Let's not forget that he's the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and still has his prime seasons to look forward.

While the Mariners aren't ready to contend at the moment, there's reason to believe they will be by the end of Hernandez's contract.  Zduriencik has built a productive farm system through shrewd trades and well-researched drafts.  Over the next year or two, their farm system will begin to bear fruit (Smoak, Ackley, Pineda).  When it does, they'll be able to combine their youth with an above average revenue stream to target in key free agents to augment the team.  This gives the Mariners an opportunity to remain patient with the rebuilding process, while being able to hold onto their most highly sought after asset.  

AL Cy Young Award: Stat Geeks Declare Victory!

I have to admit it.  I screwed up.  I was supposed to write this article before the award was announced, so I apologize.  That said, I'm to continue on as if the award hasn't been announced.  Either way, I'm down right giddy.  King Felix won.  It's a great day for stat geeks everywhere.  Take that Murray Chass!

Anyway, if I had a vote, here's how I would've voted:

Fifth Place - CC Sabathia - 21-7, 3.18 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 7.46 K/9, 2.66 K/BB, 50.7% GB, 5.1 WAR

This is easily going to be the most controversial part of my ballot.  How can I put Sabathia at the bottom of my ballot?  Well, it wasn't easy.  Sabathia had a very good season, but it wasn't a great season.  His K/9 rate is down for the second season in a row.  His K/BB rate is down for the third season in a row.  He allowing significantly more contact, while inducing fewer whiffs.  While these are not reasons to not vote for him, my problem with him is that he did nothing to distinguish himself in any category outside of wins.  For instance, Sabathia finished first in wins, but only seventh in ERA, tenth in xFIP, fifteenth in K/9, fourthteenth in K/BB, and eighth in WAR.  Like I said, he had a very good season, just not a Cy Young worthy season.

Fourth Place - Jon Lester - 19-9, 3.25 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 9.74 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, 53.6% GB, 5.6 WAR

Lester was my favorite for the award going into the season.  He put together nearly the kind of season I expected, except he struggled with his control at times.  This led to a lower than expected K/BB ratio, which probably cost him third place on my ballot.  Still though, Lester finished the season second in wins, ninth in ERA, fourth in xFIP, first in K/9, thirteenth in K/BB, and sixth in WAR.  Despite higher finishes in nearly every significant category, Lester always seems to fall below Sabathia on everyone's Cy Young ballot.  Can anyone explain this to me? 

Third Place - Francisco Liriano - 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 9.44 K/9, 3.47 K/BB, 53.6% GB, 6.0 WAR

Here's my second controversial decision.  Liriano third place?  Yes.  If you're asking this question, it's because you put too much stock in wins and ERA.  As I've discussed in other posts, wins are largely reliant on the strength of a pitcher's offense and bullpen.  ERA, on the other hand, is defense dependent.  While Minnesota carried a league average defense (per defensive efficiency rating) in 2010, Liriano's .340 BABIP indicates that he was plagued by poor luck.  Upon reviewing his batted ball rates, and calculating his xBABIP, I found that Liriano was, in fact, unlucky.  His expected batting average on balls in play was .303, which means he allowed 12 more hits than he should've been expected to allow.


When you look beyond the traditional stats, you begin to see how good Liriano really was.  In 2010, he was  first in xFIP (second in FIP), second in K/9, fifth in K/BB, and fourth in WAR.  These are unbelievable rankings.  When you factor in that Liriano also gave up the fewest number of home runs per nine innings (0.42), this only solidifies his position in the top three of the AL Cy Young race.

Second Place - Cliff Lee - 12-9, 3.18 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 7.84 K/9, 10.28 K/BB, 41.9% GB, 7.1 WAR

Yeah, this one was tough for me.  I have not made it a secret that I have a huge non-sexual man crush on Cliff Lee.  How can you not love this guy?  This season, he became only the second pitcher in major league history to put up a K/BB ratio higher than 10!  The other guy?  Brett Saberhagen in the strike shortened 1994 season.  That's impressive.  Normally, that alone would do it for me.  Unfortunately, Lee (ever so slightly) faded down the stretch, which left the door open for the eventual winner.  Lee finished up the season sixth in ERA, second in xFIP (first in FIP), tenth in K/9, first in K/BB, and first in WAR.  Lastly, he completed seven of his 29 starts, and averaged 7-1/3 innings per start.

Winner - Felix Hernandez - 13-12, 2.27 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 8.36 K/9, 3.31 K/BB, 53.9% GB, 6.2 WAR

The AL Cy Young Winner was announced today, and I can state with all certainty that the right man won the award.  For the second year in a row, the BBWAA turned a blind eye toward a low win totals, and voted for the best pitcher, not the one that had the most offensive and bullpen support.  Yes, King Felix only went 13-12, but that's mostly because his team scored a major league low 513 runs all season.  Can we really penalize him for playing on a team with an anemic offense?  Well, the BBWAA has done it to pitchers in similar situations in the past, but it's not really fair.  From start to finish, King Felix was the best pitcher in the American League.  He led the league in ERA, batters faced, innings pitched, hits per nine, and wins probability added.  He finished seventh in K/9, seventh K/BB, third in xFIP, third in WAR, and third in complete games.   

Either way, he won, and that's a pretty big deal.  It signifies a huge shift from an organization (BBWAA) mired in a traditional, outdated mindset to one that is much more friendly to modern statistical analysis.  That's a great thing.