Greinke Not Shy About Thoughts On the Press

After reading about Zack Greinke's comments regarding the press today, I couldn't help thinking about the South Park episode where Cartman pretends to have Tourette's Syndrome. During the episode he said, "I can say anything and people will call me brave." Obviously, Greinke's battle with social anxiety disorder is completely legitimate and has been chronicled in the media ad nauseum. I have to admit though there are certain advantages to SAD like say for example being able to say this:

"...then random people come and waste my time talking every day. It takes eight minutes to get a real question out because they're like buttering me up. Then they get to the question and it's a stupid question. So it's a waste of 10 minutes and in that 10 minute time I don't get to do what I needed to do."

Now far be it from me, someone who has suffered from depression off and on over the last fourteen years, to criticize a person with SAD but I think Greinke's comments are just a tad too honest. The media has been extremely accomadating when it comes to meeting his demands for pre-scheduled press meetings and throwing up softball questions. For Greinke to come out and bite the hand that writes his box score stats is a little insulting. Greinke's statements are a perfect example of why he could never have pitched in New York, where the press considers SAD to be passing on a third Scotch and soda at Brandy Library on North Moore Street. Sometimes you need to engage the filter quicker Zack.

Contrastingly the media should read Greinke's comments as "get to the friggin' point!" I know the media has to be sensitive to Greinke's condition, but sometimes there is a thin line between business and BS. If the media has a direct question for Greinke then just...ask...him. I'm sure Greinke would appreciate Milwaukee reporters being candid. That way he won't have to issue statements that cut deeper than an inside fastball. Brewers' beat reporters won't have to butter him up either. A little Crisco will do just nicely.

Greinke Turned Down Nats Trade Despite Offer of Extension

I may rip on Jon Heyman quite a bit, but it’s mostly in fun.  Still, I have to give him a little credit every so often.  He has a way of digging up information on a story—even when one doesn’t exist.  (Sorry, I couldn’t resist.)

greinke rejected #nats but accepted #brewers bec he believes milwaukee can win sooner, i hear. also said to like city

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.  Despite signing Jayson Werth to a massive 7 year $126M contract, the Nationals are still at least three years away from being serious playoff contenders.  Outside of Werth, only All-Star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman could be classified as an established organizational cornerstone.  While they do have some very interesting young talent in Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Drew Storen, and Bryce Harper, each of them come with their own set of questions.  In the case of Strasburg and Zimmerman, those questions primarily deal with their ability to return to form after Tommy John surgery.   

Still, Greinke’s concerns didn’t stop the Nationals from trying to sweeten the pot by offering him a “big” contract extension.  While there is neither word regarding the size of the Nationals offer, nor positive confirmation of this report, I tend to believe it’s pretty reliable.  According to Tom Boswell of the Washington Post indicated that the Nationals "...think Greinke is better than [Cliff] Lee and four years younger and are far more interested in him."  Lee and Greinke have a remarkably similar skill set, so it makes sense that the Nationals would be so aggressive in trying to obtain Greinke via any means imaginable.  Any time you can trade for someone you believe will become “next Cliff Lee,” and then lock him up to a long-term extension, you have to do it.  Right? 

Losing Greinke to the Brewers has to be a huge blow to a team trying to not only build a competitive roster, but also rebuild their public image.  Still, it’s not a total loss.  The Nationals front office deserves a lot of credit for being aggressive in their pursuit of Greinke.  They did everything they could.  In the end, it wasn’t about the money.  He just wasn’t comfortable with their ability to compete during the next two years.

Brew Crew Goes All-In

If anyone was unsure of the Brewers motivation in trading for Zach Greinke, General Manager Doug Melvin makes it crystal clear:

“This is what I call a ‘now’ trade, getting a player of his ability,” said Melvin, who indicated the trade was “90% complete” last night and finished this morning.

“I feel like I’ve acquired a CC Sabathia except for two years and maybe longer. It feels good. It was a costly trade. We gave up a lot of good, young players. This is a credit to our scouting and player development people to have the kind of young players it takes to make a trade like this.”

That’s right folks.  The Brewers are going for broke. 

After struggling to find serviceable starting rotation pieces over the past two seasons, the Brewers have acquired two very good starting pitchers (Greinke and Marcum) in the span of a couple of weeks.  While the Brewers had to give up a few high potential prospects in Lawrie, Cain, and Odorozzi, the short term benefit was too great for the Brewers to pass up.*  Slugging first baseman Prince Fielder and talented (but oft-injured) second baseman Rickie Weeks are eligible to become free agents after the 2011 season.  With neither expected to return, the Brewers window of contention is rapidly closing.  The Greinke trade gives them an opportunity to not only challenge the upstart Reds and star-studded Cardinals for NL Central supremacy, but also seriously contend for a shot at a World Series championship. 

* As Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra points out, if the “Dooms Day” scenario occurs with Fielder and Weeks both leaving, the Brewers could look to restock their farm system by trading Greinke away either after the 2011 season or at the 2012 trading deadline. Greinke’s no trade clause will no longer be a factor after this season.

One other interesting anecdote to mention regarding this trade is that the Brewers were one of the fifteen teams named on Greinke’s no trade list.  While Melvin tries to spin Greinke’s trade approval in a positive light (“It's an indication he wanted to come to Milwaukee…”), there’s a chance it had more to do with his agent’s relationship with the Brewers than his desire to play in Milwaukee.  Regardless of how a decision was made, Greinke is in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are better because of it.

How Does the Greinke Trade Affect Pavano's Prospects?

With Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies and Zach Greinke being traded to the Brewers, Carl Pavano can finally claim that he (and he alone) is the undisputed "best starting pitcher available" on the free agent market.  That's kind of sad if you think about it.  It's only December 19th, and the best available pitcher is Carl (bleeping) Pavano?  It just goes to show how weak this year's free agent pitching crop has been.

Zach Greinke's trade to Milwaukee will probably end up having a pretty large effect on the Carl Pavano contract drive.  As I reported ten days ago, the Brewers were in "very productive discussions" with Pavano and his agent on a contract that would bring him to the Cream City.*  Contract talks never got very far because Milwaukee was reluctant to offer a guaranteed third year to Pavano.  Presumably they had concerns about giving a three year contract to a pitcher that was on the wrong side of 30.  This shouldn't be surprising considering how well the Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf signings have worked out.  Now that they've acquired Greinke, this seems to be a moot point.  The Brew Crew's rotation is full, and there's no room for Pavano or his salary.

* Yes, that actually is one of the nicknames for Milwaukee.  Others included Brew City, Mil Town, City of Festivals, and "The Only American City to Elect Three Socialist Mayors."  Ok.  That last one isn't actually one of Milwaukee's nicknames, but it is a fact. 

So where does Pavano go from here?  Well, I hear the Yankees are in need of a starting pitcher.  (snicker)  I'm just kidding of course.  I'm sure Brian Cashman would find walking through the South Bronx projects late at night while flashing $50K in bling more appealing than re-sign Pavano.  Also, I'm pretty sure he'd get fired for even cracking a joke about signing Pavano, so the Yankees are definitely out.

The Rangers look like a decent fit.  They definitely have money to spend after losing out on both Cliff Lee and Zach Greinke.  Now that most of the big targets are off of the board, it's unclear how much money the Rangers will be willing to spend this offseason.  They may decide that it's wiser to save up their money for when Prince Fielder hits the market after the 2011 season.  Currently, the Rangers are reported to be interested in Adrian Beltre and Vlad Guerrero as well.  If Pavano is interested in signing with them, he may need to move with some urgency. 

The Nationals are also reported to be interested in Pavano.  They've been pretty active throughout the offseason on some of the biggest targets.  They made a huge splash with the Jayson Werth signing; were involved in the Cliff Lee bidding; and nearly traded for Zach Greinke before he invoked his no trade clause.  With Stephen Strasburg expected to miss the entire 2011 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Nationals rotation is full of bottom of the rotation and replacement level starters.  (Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis are projected to be their top two starters.  Ouch!)  The Nationals will likely be very aggressive in acquiring Pavano, and may be willing to overpay. 

According to several reports by Pavano's teammates, he's indicated would prefer to stay in the Twin Cities.  As such, the Twins seem to be the odds on favorite to retain Pavano.  With Greinke being traded to one of Pavano's most ardent suitors (Brewers), this could actually give the Twins a little bit of extra leverage when it comes to contract negotiations.  Pavano is reported to be looking a contract similar to the one Ted Lilly signed with the Dodgers in November (3 years $33M).  With the Brewers out of the running, the Twins might be able to negotiate Pavano down to 3 years at $10M per season.  While it remains to be seen what his other suitors are willing to offer, this seems like a very reasonable contract for someone with Pavano's talent.  Still, this scenario seems somewhat unlikely.  This year's free agent market has turned out heavily favor the players.  In the end, Pavano would probably be smart to hold out for another couple of weeks in hopes of triggering a bidding war between interested parties.

Brewers Land Greinke

Late last night, ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Brewers and Royals have agreed to a trade that would send 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner Zach Greinke to the Brewers for SS Aclides Escobar, OF Lorenzo Cain, and starting pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress.

To quote Jon Malkovich from the movie Rounders, "Like a young man coming from a quickie, I feel so unsatisfied."  That pretty much sums up my reaction to the Brewers landing ace Zach Greinke from the Royals.  I'm not upset that the Brewers won the Greinke sweepstakes, but I'm not thrilled either.  Sure, it's not sexy, but that's not really an issue for me.  Most moves aren't sexy.  My bone of contention stems from the fact a trade occurred so quickly.  Now that Jeter and Lee have made their decisions, I was really hoping the Greinke trade talks would spur conversation, rumors, and innuendos for a couple of weeks.  Instead, it ends just as things were starting to were really starting to heat up. 

What does this mean for the Brewers?
 
It's pretty clear what the Brewers get out of this trade.  In Greinke, they have the top of the rotation starter that they've been missing since C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets left town via free agency after the 2008 season.  Greinke has excellent command of four pitches.  His fastball and sliders are both plus pitches (registering at least +10 runs on Fangraphs' pitch type value scale), and his curveball and change-up are right around league average.  Greinke has great control (career BB/9 rate of 2.27), and has excellent movement on each of his four pitches.  While he saw a drop in his both his K/9 and swinging strike rates from 2009 to 2010, he should see a bounce back next season as he moves to the National League. With Greinke, the Brewers now have a starting rotation that can compete with the Reds and Cardinals in the NL Central.  Yovanni Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf will, more comfortably, slot into the two, three, and four spots in the rotation.  Without Greinke, they would've been out of place in the top three spots.

This trade leaves a couple of holes on the field for the Brewers.  As a result of the trade, the Brewers are without their projected starting shortstop and center fielder.  While they have options to replace Cain in center with either defensive whiz Carlos Gomez and former Red Chris Dickerson, neither are long term solutions.  They could look to the free agent market, but that's looking pretty thin right now at the outfield position.  Available players include the veritable pu pu platter that is Kevin Mench, Andruw Jones, Brad Hawpe, Xavier Nady, Manny Ramirez, and Randy Winn.  None of those players are good options to either play CF, or accumulate 600 plate appearances.  They could look to trade for an outfielder (perhaps with Oakland who has a surplus of outfielders?), but the Brewers aren't in a position to trade away any more prospects in the aftermath of the Greinke and Marcum trades.  The free agent shortstop situation is just as bleak with Cesar Izturis and Edgar Renteria remaining as the best of what's still available.  Yikes!

What does this mean for the Royals?

Aclides Escobar - Well, for starters, the Royals finally have a decent defensive shortstop in Aclides Escobar.  (Adios, Yuniesky Betancourt.)  At 23, Escobar looks like he could be best described as a poor man's Rey Ordonez.  While he should provide plenty of value on the defensive side of the ball, he'll be a black hole on offense.  He doesn't hit for average, has no power, and has poor on base skills.  In his first full major league season, he put up a putrid .270 wOBA (-22.5 wRAA), which was good for third worst in the majors among qualified players.  He doesn't project to get that much better offensively as he enters his prime (around a replacement level .300 wOBA).  Still, Escobar should stabilize a defense that's been consistently poor over the past decade. 

Lorenzo Cain - Cain, a former 17th round pick in the 2004 amateur draft, has long been considered one of the Brewers top prospects.  He's been described as a "very toolsy" player whose bat is a "boom or bust investment."  In layman's terms, he's still pretty raw.  Cain was an excellent defensive right fielder before the Brewers moved to center because he didn't fit the offensive profile of a corner outfielder.  He has above average speed and good range in center, so he profiles to be average to above average at the position.  Offensively, Cain still strikes out too much.  His patience and plate discipline has improved in recent seasons, which has resulted in an increased walk rate.  While he has quick wrists and raw power, it's unknown whether his raw power will ever translate into "in game" power.  The Royals desperately needed a young center fielder, and Cain fits the bill. 

Jake Odorizzi - The Royals already have a treasure trove of top pitching prospects.  With Odorizzi, it just got deeper.  You can never have too much young pitching.  Odorozzi has four pitches, which includes a four seam fastball that registers between 90-94 MPH; a two seam sinker that registers between 88-92 MPH; a plus-curve ball; and an average slider that has late movement.  Most scouting reports that I've read state he has "smooth" or "clean" mechanics, good command of all of his pitches, and mixes them up well.  Should he reach his potential, he projects to be a number two or three starter in the majors.  This is a very solid pick-up by the Royals.

Jeremy Jeffress - Jeffress is one of those great stuff, terrible command prospects.  If he puts it all together, he could be a top of the rotation guy.  If not, he'll probably end up as a fringe back of the rotation starter or run of the mill relief pitcher.  Add in his substance abuse problems (two suspensions for testing positive for "a drug of abuse"), and his future is even cloudier.  That said, Jeffress, 23, has the kind of potential that most teams can't turn their backs on.  The Royals, who already have a system full of high potential pitching prospects, can afford to take a chance on the troubled right-hander.  Jeffress's fastball is farily straight, but has plus plus velocity, registering between 95-98 MPH.   His 11-6 curve ball has the potential to be above average, but his command with the pitch is very inconsistent.  His change-up is a fringe-average show pitch at best.  Unless he can both develop his change up and harness his command, it's likely Jeffress will be moved to the bullpen where he could be very effective as a late inning set-up man or a second tier closer. 

All things considered, it's a pretty solid trade for both sides.  Personally, I think the Royals could have gotten more for Greinke had they been a little more deliberate in their negotiating tactics.  The package they reportedly requested from the Nationals (RP Drew Storen, SP Jordan Zimmerman, and 2B prospect Danny Espinoza) was potentially a better deal.  Apparently, that deal was very close to coming to fruition.  According to SI's, Jon Heyman Greinke put the kibosh on the deal by invoking his no trade clause.  Either way, both teams got what they needed.  The Brewers acquired an ace, and the Royals received the help up the middle they desperately needed.

Greinke Demands to be Traded

The Zach Greinke situation just got a lot more interesting.  According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, Greinke has officially been asked to be traded from the Kansas City Royals. 

Zack Greinke wants to be traded, and the Kansas City Royals intend to grant his wish.

Greinke fired his agent on Friday, the clearest indication yet of the ace right-hander’s desire to be sent to another club.

After Greinke switched representation from SFX Baseball to CAA, a high-ranking executive from another team told FOXSports.com, “He really wants out of K.C.” Separate major-league sources confirmed that Greinke has unequivocally asked the Royals to be traded.

Apparently, Greinke is tired of losing, and at times became disengaged from the team last year.  While I understand this disappointment of being on a perennial loser, this isn't anything new for the Royals.  He knew what he was signing up for two years ago when he agreed to a 4 year $38M contract, so forgive me for not feeling too bad.

Just two seasons removed from a Cy Young season, there will be a long line of teams interested in obtaining Greinke.  The Yankees, Blue Jays, Brewers, Nationals, and Rangers have all been named as teams showing varying levels of interest in making a trade.  Big market teams like the Yankees will likely be concerned about Greinke's ability to handle the pressure of playing in a market whose media is relentless and overbearing.  While I tend to underplay the psychological card in most cases, in Greinke's case, I don't.  His problems with anxiety got so bad that he not only missed nearly the entire 2006 season trying to cope with the disorder, but also seriously considered retirement.  This is a legitimate concern, and likely one that should cause the Yankees, in particular, to pass on Greinke.  I'm not saying he can't pitch in New York.  I'm just saying that the risk exceeds his talent, and therefore, should probably be avoided.

Greinke's current contract situation makes him an attractive trade candidate.  He has only two years remaining on this contract at the reasonable price of $27M.  Unfortunately for the Royals, Greinke's public demand for a trade has likely reduced the potential haul the Royals thought they could receive in return for the right-hander.  One of the last reports I read was that the Royals wanted power hitting outfielder Travis Snyder and pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, plus another low end prospect, from the Blue Jays.  With Greinke's public demands, they'll likely only get one player of that quality, while having to fill out the rest of the trade with B and C grade prospects.  It should be noted that Greinke has a no trade clause that allows him to reject trades from up to fifteen predetermined teams.

Casey Close (you might remember him from the Derek Jeter negotiations) is reported to be Greinke's new agent.

Royals “Only Listening” to Offers for Greinke

As the Cliff Lee negotiations come to a close, the rumors surrounding Zach Greinke have started to pick up.  So far, he’s been linked to potential trades with the Rangers, Yankees, and Blue Jays, among others.  In an interview with the Kansas City Star, Royals GM Dayton Moore had this to say regarding the Greinke rumors:

“I haven’t made one call to one organization asking them if they’re interested in Zack Greinke.”

Does Moore really have to make any calls for Greinke?  Probably not.  All he has to do is ask one of his minions to leak a rumor of his availability and teams will flock to him.  Greinke was the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner after all, so it stands to reason he’d be in high demand. 

Moore seems to want some semblance of plausible deniability.  I get it.  I really do.  For a team that’s been one of the sport’s bottom feeders for the past fifteen years, it’s probably not the greatest public relations move for Moore to be openly shopping his ace.  Most fans are frustrated and restless.  They’re not going to understand the motivation behind trading Greinke away*--even if the motivation is well thought out and rational.

* I actually think it’s a smart move for the Royals to trade him.  This past summer, Greinke made it no secret that he was frustrated with the direction of the franchise.  While the Royals have a stacked farm system—and I do mean stacked—they’re still a year or two away from their prospects being ready to compete at the big league level.  Once the prospects reach the majors, there’s a year or two of growing pains and adjustments.  In reality, the Royals are 3-4 years away from being legitimate contenders.  

Greinke’s contract is up at the end of the 2012 season.  With the team likely still treading water at that point, he’ll probably leave KC for greener pastures. Therefore, it’s probably a better idea to trade Greinke this offseason, while his trade value is at its peak.

It’s intellectually dishonest for Moore to claim they “haven’t made one call” and are “only listening,” when it’s a well known fact that he’s actively shopping Greinke all over the league.  After all of the suffering he’s imposed on the Royals in the past week, it probably would’ve behooved him to keep his mouth shut about the Greinke situation.

Lee Sweepstakes Start to Warm Up, Greinke Rumored as Likely Plan B

For a couple of weeks, the Cliff Lee front was eerily quiet.  Now, news is coming in fast and furious.  As George King reports, the Rangers are prepared to offer Lee a five year deal.   While I haven’t seen any reports indicating the average annual salary the Rangers are preparing to offer, I’d have to assume it’s in the $20M+ range.  At this point, any offer less than $20M per season is a complete waste of Lee’s time.  The Yankees have reportedly struck first, and offered him a five year deal in the $115-120M range.  That’s going to be a tough offer for the Rangers to top.  If the Rangers are going to be successful in their attempt to re-sign Lee, it will likely be on the strength of Arlington’s proximity to his home in Arkansas, and the lack of a state tax in Texas. 

While the Rangers are interested in retaining Lee, it doesn’t appear they’re willing to put all of their eggs in his basket.  They’re looking for a quick answer from Lee, and are prepared to look elsewhere if his re-signing doesn’t appear imminent.  This is a pretty smart move.  The Yankees are the odds on favorite to win the Lee sweepstakes, and Greenberg and Ryan won’t want to be left without a chair when the music stops. 

 

One place the Rangers could look to fill their starting pitching needs is with Royals ace Zach Greinke.  Several reports have him pegged as the Rangers primary Plan B target.  While Greinke isn’t nearly as sexy as Lee, he’d still be a good fit in Arlington.  He has above average command of four pitches, two of which are considered plus pitches per Fangraphs pitch value chart (fastball and slider).  Greinke does a good job with avoiding the long ball.  Since 2007, he’s produced an HR/FB rate of 7.1%, which is significantly below the league norm of 10.5%.  Assuming he can keep that up, his chances of success with the Rangers is pretty solid.  While I’m a little concerned with Greinke’s contact rate jumping from 77.7% to 82.8% between 2009 and 2010, part of that concern is offset by a 6% increase in his groundball rate (40.0% to 46.0%). 

Most importantly, Greinke is only scheduled to make $13.5M in each of the next two seasons, which is 40-50% less than what Lee is projected to make.  The nearly $10M saved by going with Greinke over Lee could be used to sign another important piece to the championship puzzle. 

Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Yankees are also kicking the tires on Greinke.  As with Texas, he’s likely to be their Plan B target in the unlikely event they don’t sign Lee.  That said, if Pettitte was to retire (rather than re-sign with the Yankees), it’s possible the Yankees would try to go after both starting pitchers.  Yikes!  Can you imagine facing a rotation of Sabathia, Lee, Greinke, and Hughes in the playoffs (with Burnett out of the bullpen)?  That’s really scary thought...