Sunday, December 5, 2010

I could be completely wrong here

I misspoke slightly when i was talking to one of my friends earlier. I said I liked the Bronson Arroyo deal when I meant to say I was shockingly unopposed to the Arroyo deal. I know that publishing this statement online might get me kicked out of the club. I also know that a large majority of why I do not hate this deal is fundamentally numerically unsupportable. I am opening myself up to be lumped into the Heymans, Chasses, and Plaschkes of the world with this post. However, I stand by my statement. I don't hate the Arroyo contract.

Normally, both of the writers of this blog use numbers and statistics to support their conjectures. You won't see me do much of that because, quite frankly, the numbers aren't exactly on my side. However, excluding those raving fanatics who protest funerals and play with snakes, no one is 100 percent locked into any one belief. Bronson Arroyo does one thing very well that very few people on the planet Earth can claim to do. He can pitch 200 hundred innings, year in and year out. I am aware that he is only a 2 WAR pitcher. However, one can be 99 percent sure that he will achieve that 2 wins. It benefits the Reds especially, as they have several pitchers who are young, innings limited, or recovering from injury. Arroyo can function as a bedrock for the rotation without the penalty that normally is associated with those termed as inning eaters, specifically the agony of having Livan Hernandez start every 5Th. Furthermore, the dearth of acceptable replacement options for Arroyo in the free agent market placed a greater value on resigning this player than he would normally have. Financially, the deal is not all that far off of the presumed value he will contribute to the team, as we have seen a glut of above market signings raise the value of a Win to almost 5 million. The million or two potentially lost is an acceptable cost for a young franchise that has made the playoffs and is seeking to maintain the status quo going into the 2011 season.

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