Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Vlad's Fantasy Land...Population? One

Does anyone want a good laugh?  Good.  Because you're about to get one.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Vlad Guerrero has backed away from his demands for a two year $16M contract.  That's probably a smart move considering it's January, he's 36, and a designated hitter.  Actually, let me rephrase that.  It's definitely a smart move, and it's one he should've made around the start of the New Year.  Still, better late than never. 

So what kind of deal does he have in mind now?  If you said, one year at $8M, you'd not only be correct, but also probably be living in the same fantasy world that Vlad is living in right now.  There is absolutely no way he's ever going to see that kind of money--at least not this offseason.   In a way, Vlad's situation is eerily reminiscent of the situation many American home sellers went through during the first eighteen months of the real estate market crash.  Like the American home seller, he set his price based on information that no longer applied, and then refused to accept the fact that his value was significantly lower than he'd anticipated.  Once he finally realized it, it was too late--and then he didn't cut his price far enough to attract interested buyers!

As far as I can tell, Guerrero has exactly two viable suitors right now.  The Orioles and the Angels.  The Orioles indicated yesterday that they have limited funds remaining to sign free agents.  Unless Vlad reduces his price again, it's unlikely he signs with them.  The Angels appear to have a need at DH now that they've traded away Mike Napoli, but they recently took on $81M of the remaining $86M of Vernon Wells's contract.  Under normal circumstances, I would say that would preclude the Angels from signing Vlad.  But, if they're willing to take on Wells and his ridiculous contract, what's adding a few million more to the payroll.  Right?

As I mentioned the other day, Vlad is in for a rude awakening.  I see him signing for a Manny Ramirez type deal, or possibly even one less than that.   


  1. hey chip

    i haven't dug to deeply on the folowing but,...

    i looked at for vlad.

    anecdotally he looked like he has lost bat speed and mostly hit brealing stuff.

    the site i mentioned only has the last three years for vlad. i didn't look at others to compare, but it seemed to me hit few homers on fastballs.

    i know all players face this but i am thinking about comparing 2010 thome, ortiz, and vlad vs. fastballs. just thinking out loud.

  2. FB% wFB ('10) ('09)
    vlad 60 2 -7
    ortiz 58 18 4
    thome 57 23 10

    Am i missing something? why doesn't vald face more fastballs?

  3. @fdog Great research! Hadn't heard of that site--usually go to Good stuff.

    Good point. Why isn't Vlad seeing more fastballs? He doesn't have the great bat speed anymore to catch up on the pitches he shouldn't have been swinging at in the first place.