Nationals Sign LaRoche for Two Years

The Nationals finally have a first baseman.  According to MSNBC, LaRoche will sign a two year $16M contract that includes a $10M option (or $1M buyout) for the 2013 season.  The author of the report I found had this to say.

"The money is outrageous, but the Nationals have to overpay some free agents to convince them to join the organization, which hasn't had much success recently and could be several years from competing."

Is the money really outrageous?  Well, I guess it is in the "I can't believe baseball players are being paid $16M to play a game" line of thinking, but that's not really relevant for this discussion.  Is his salary outrageous in terms of baseball?  That depends on your perspective.  LaRoche is an average first baseman in just about every sense of the word.  He puts up solid offensive numbers, but he's never among the top ten or fifteen at his position.  After removing the 2005 outlier season, his defensive stats are just about league average for his career per UZR--Dewan's plus/minus tells a slightly different story.  In terms of value, he's been worth 2.0-2.5 wins above the replacement level over the last five seasons, which is the break even point for acceptable performance among league average starting players.  Is he a stud?  No.  Is he someone you're super excited to have on your team?  Probably not.  Still, he'll provide steady, consistent value, and likely will help his team more than he hurts it.

This offseason, we've seen the average cost of a win on the free agent market skyrocket from approximately $4M per win to nearly $5M.  Based on LaRoche's recent WAR history, it's not unreasonable to expect LaRoche to provide between $20-25M in performance based value during his the two guaranteed seasons of his contract.  If he continued to produce on this level, he would actually be underpaid not overpaid.  So to answer my original question, his salary is far from outrageous in baseball terms. 

Do I think the Nationals could've signed LaRoche to a more team friendly contract?  Absolutely, but that's a different question entirely.  

LaRoche Nearing Two Year Deal with Nats

The long national nightmare is nearly over.  Are you ready for it?  According to Bill Ladson of mlb.com, transcendent first baseman Adam LaRoche appears to be on the verge of signing a two year deal with the Washington Nationals.  Terms of the deal have not been disclosed.

All sarcasm and joking aside, this looks to be a decent move for the Nationals--primarily because it's really their only option for filling the hole left at first base by Adam Dunn.  While he won't come anywhere close to matching Dunn's offensive production, he certainly be an upgrade.  Plus, he'll provide nearly the same value for half of the price.  Seems like a good move all around for the Nats.   

LaRoche Being Courted by Nationals

After being spurned by Adam Dunn and Derrek Lee, the Nationals have turned their lonely eyes to Adam LaRoche.

According to Bill Ladson of MLB.com, the Nationals have offered LaRoche a two year contract.  While the terms of the offer have not been disclosed, the annual average salary is believed to be in the $8-9M range.  As I've mentioned previously, LaRoche is reportedly looking for a three year deal. but the Nationals seem unwilling to go beyond two seasons. 

Last season, LaRoche produced a .261/.320/.468 (.339 wOBA) triple slash line despite playing half of his games at Chase Field, one of the most homer friendly ballparks in the majors.  He's been a consistent 2.0 win player for the past five seasons, so he shouldn't have any problems providing enough value to justify his contract.  Still, at 31 years old, LaRoche looks to be on the downside of his career.  His plays spotty defense at the easiest position on the diamond, and he creates far too many outs due to his inability to draw walks and avoid strikeouts. 

Considering LaRoche's lack of options, I don't see any reason for the Nationals to budge from their position.  He probably should have accepted the three year offer he received from Baltimore a few weeks ago.

Orioles Agree to One Year Deal with Derrek Lee

UPDATE (12/31/2010 at 4:51 p.m.):  Jon Heyman reports that Lee's deal will be for $8M.  This report is unconfirmed, so stay tuned.

Original Post (12/31/2010 at 4:07 p.m.):  The Orioles finally landed a free agent.

Dan Connely of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles and Derrek Lee have come to terms on a one year contract.  While the terms of the contract have not been disclosed, Lee was rumored to be looking for a contract between $8-10M. 

As I mentioned about a week ago, Lee is a better option for the Orioles than LaRoche.  Instead of paying for three years of average offensive production from LaRoche, they get one season of low-risk, high-reward production out of Lee.  Yes, Lee had a down year in 2010, but there are encouraging signs he could rebound in a big way in 2011.  Lee still has above average power (54 XBH in 2010), good patience at the plate (11.7% walk rate), makes solid contact (22.5% line drive rate versus 1.3% pop-up rate), and plays average to above average defense at his position (2.1 UZR).  All things considered, Lee should be worth 2.7-3.0 WAR in 2011, which would make his theoretical $8-10M salary a huge bargain.

With the Orioles out of the running, LaRoche appears destined (or resigned, depending on how you look at it) to signing with the Nationals.  Unless he can get another team like the Rays involved in the negotiations, LaRoche will probably get stuck with signing a one-year deal for the second season in a row.

LaRoche Talks Break Down, O's Look to Lee

Perhaps the LaRoche to Baltimore deal isn't a done deal after all.

While the Orioles haven't abandoned hope of signing free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, their inability to get a deal done has prompted them to renew talks with Derrek Lee, according to multiple sources.

(snip)

It's unclear whether that is because LaRoche is reportedly seeking a three-year deal while the Orioles would prefer not giving him three guaranteed years, or LaRoche simply has better, more lucrative offers, and doesn't want to play in Baltimore.

I'm asking the same question a lot of people are asking right now.  What is it about Baltimore that free agents don't like?  Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they play in the AL East with the Yankees and Red Sox?  Or maybe Peter Angelos has a much worse reputation, among the players, than I'd originally thought?  Unfortunately, I don't really have a concrete answer.  What ever the reason, the O's need to figure out a way to reverse this disturbing trend.  Otherwise, they're destined to be the major league's perennial free agent bride's maid.

No one knows for sure how the Orioles and LaRoche have reached this impasse.  Many have speculated (including the author of the article I've linked to) that either the O's are unwilling to guarantee a third season, or LaRoche has received a more lucrative deal from another team.  The former sounds pretty reasonable, as I opined as much the other day when I first reported the LaRoche deal.  The latter, on the other hand, seems a little more far fetched.  Based on all of the credible reports I was able to find, there are only three teams reported to be looking for a first baseman:  the Orioles, Nationals, and Padres.  The Padres, due to their current ownership and payroll situation, are unlikely to give LaRoche $7M, let alone a figure greater than that amount.  While the Nationals seem to have money to burn, they seem to be more interested in signing Lee than LaRoche.  I haven't found any reports indicating the Nationals have had anything more than a passing interest in the former Brave.

While the deal for LaRoche isn't dead, the Orioles have reignited talks with former Cub All-Star Derrek Lee.  According to Ken Rosenthal, Lee is reportedly looking for a one year deal worth around $8-10M.  While at first glance, this might seem like a bit of a reach considering Lee produced only a .340 wOBA and 2.0 WAR in his age-34 season, but it's not.  After doing a 5-4-3 WAR regression, I project Lee will likely provide between 2.7-3.0 WAR next season, or $13.5-15M in value*; thus, making his $8-10M salary a bargain.  Lee still has plenty in the tank.  He has above average power, good patience at the plate, makes solid contact (line drive vs. pop ups), and plays average to above average defense at his position.  Considering his desire for a one year deal, Lee is probably a better fit for the Orioles than LaRoche. 

* Based on Fangraph's WAR salary model.  Average cost of a win on the free agent market is currently around $5M.

Should the unexpected happen and the Orioles lose out on both Lee and LaRoche, I expect the Orioles to make a run at a quality bat like Johnny Damon, Vlad Guerrero, or Jim Thome to fill the DH spot.  The Orioles currently have a couple of internal options at first base in Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold, should it comes to that point.  While neither are ideal options defensively, their defense shouldn't be a detriment to the team. 

LaRoche Close to Three Year Deal in Baltimore

Jen Royle of MASN Sports has the scoop on the Orioles newly signed first baseman.  The Orioles and Adam LaRoche have officially come terms on a 3 year contract believed to be worth $16-18M.

I'm not really sure what to make of this deal.  On one hand, it's not a terrible deal when you look at it solely on a salary per season basis.  With the average cost of a win on the free agent market being around $5M, LaRoche should have no problems justifying his salary.  (He projects to be a 2 WAR player, on average, over the next three seasons.)  On the other hand, was it really necessary to sign him for three years?  For a 31 year old middle of the road first baseman, I figured they could have signed him for a maximum of two (if not one) years.

Also, Prince Fielder will likely hit the free agent market next year.  If the O's had saved up their pennies, they might have been able to make a serious run at signing him.  After their run for Mark Teixeira a couple of years ago, they showed they're willing to spend the kind of money necessary to make a big splash on the free agent market.  If the Orioles plan on contending in the big bad AL East, they'll need to do two things:  (1) continue to develop talent via the draft and smart trades, and (2) make the occasional big splash on a top talent.  The O's have number one down pat.  Now, they need to find a way to go from being a perennial bride's maid to a bride when it comes to acquiring top free agent talent. 

Still, LaRoche seems to be a decent fit.  As a left handed hitter that consistently hits around 25 home runs per season, he should be able to take advantage of the short porch in right field.  I don't see him having any problem posting a .350 wOBA, while playing average defense at first base.  All-in-all, it's not a bad deal.  He won't hurt the team, and he'll provide enough value to justify his salary.  I just don't think it was necessary for the Orioles to guarantee three years for LaRoche when they could've gotten him for less.