Justin Upton off the Market

According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Diamondbacks have taken Justin Upton off of the market.

"Trade talks involving the Diamondbacks' 23-year-old right fielder have "just about died," a source familiar with the discussions told ESPN.com. While Arizona will still listen, the source said, the club is no longer motivated to trade him because it has begun filling some of the holes it would have plugged by dealing Upton."

While it was a smart move for Towers to see what he could get for Upton, it's even smarter that he's pulled him off of the market.  It's highly unlikely they would've received an offer that would justified moving him. 
At 23 years of age, Upton is locked up through 2015, and has been said to have Ken Griffey Jr. potential.  We don't know if he'll ever reach the heights so many have predicted for him, but would you want to be known as the man who traded away the next Griffey at 23?  I wouldn't.   

Upton to be Pulled Off of Trade Market by End of Winter Meetings

With the Justin Upton rumor mill having gone silent over the last few days, this news shouldn't come as too much of a surprise:

"Things have been quiet on the Upton front since last week and the team figures to know one way or the other by the end of the four-day meetings whether Upton will be a D-back come Opening Day.

'There comes a point in time when we've kicked the tires, gone through the process and you finally say 'We're keeping him,' Towers said. 'We should have a real good idea by the end of the meetings.'"

If you have dreams of one day becoming a Major League General Manager, I hope you paid close attention to what Kevin Towers did there.  Towers is a master at building a player's trade value.  By setting an artificial deadline (i.e. the end of the winter meetings), he's hoping some team will panic and overpay for Upton's services.  While I'd like to think that major league GMs are too smart and savvy to fall prey to such tactics, I know better.  Brian Sabean, Ned Colletti, and Dayton Moore are always lurking...

Do the Red Sox Have to Trade for Upton?

Over the last few weeks, there's been a lot of discussion in both the traditional media and the blogosphere regarding the availability of Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton.  When a 23 year old former first round pick with seemingly unlimited potential becomes available, every seems to have an opinion as to whether (insert your favorite team here) should take the plunge and acquire him.

Even here at BBIMH, both Josh and I have expressed differing opinions on the subject.  To me, Upton is a five tool player with tremendous power potential, good speed, and above average defensive skills.  At 23 years of age, Upton is only beginning to realize his potential.  His best seasons are clearly ahead of him. Players like Upton come along very rarely.  It'd be foolish for any team to not explore the idea.*  Josh, on the other hand, sees Upton as a player who's hype far outweighs his current and likely future production; therefore, a risky trade proposition.  As evidence, he pointed to Upton's high career strikeout rate, and low home run rate despite playing in one of the more home run friendly parks in baseball.  While I understand his reasoning, I respectfully disagree.  

*Please note that I used the term "explore".  As with any free agent signing or trade, the benefits of acquiring a player needs to equal or exceed the costs.  I am by no means suggesting that a team should acquire Upton's services at any cost.

A few days ago, Christopher Gasper of the Boston Globe offered his opinion on the prospects of a Justin Upton trade, and what'd it mean for the Red Sox. 

"It's early in the offseason to panic. However, yesterday's news that Victor Martinez is like the Patriots -- Motown-bound -- was greeted with groans and gripes because this third-place team needs to add impact pieces, not subtract them. The virulent reaction to Martinez's four-year, $50 million deal with Detroit from a frustrated fan base showed that this has the potential to be the offseason of our discontent on Yawkey Way. It's probably going to get worse before it gets better on the free agency front with third baseman Adrian Beltre viewed as being likely to bid the Hub adieu too.

That's why it's imperative that the Red Sox make the Upton move. It's bold, it's proactive and it will move the needle for a club that desperately needs some positive spin to sell to a now suspicious fan base. More importantly it could help the team in both the short term and the long term on the field. Yes, the asking price is very high, as the smoke signals from the Hot Stove indicate it would take both Ellsbury and Bard, plus another piece to make it happen. But so is Upton's ceiling."

Yes, the Red Sox need to add impact pieces, but how would retaining Victor Martinez long-term help the Red Sox?  As I've mentioned before, signing a soon-to-be 32 year old catcher to a long-term deal is usually a losing proposition.  If we were talking about a one or two year deal, I would be able to understand his point.  We're not though.  We're talking about tying up four years at $50M for a catcher who's best seasons are behind him.

Oh, did I mention that VMart isn't even going to be the Tigers primary catcher?  On Friday, the Globe's Steve Silva reported the Tigers are only planning on playing Martinez at catcher for 60 games with remainder of his starts coming at DH.  Using Bill James's projection that Martinez plays 134 games in 2011 (60 at catcher and 74 at DH), he projects to lose 1.0 WAR in positional value alone.   Although, Martinez projects to make up some of that lost value due to improvements in offensive production and replacement level value, he will still lose about 0.5 WAR (making him a 3.5 WAR player in 2011).  While this is enough to justify his 2011 salary, we shouldn't expect this trend to continue over the life of his four year contract. 

As for his opinion on Upton...  While I agree that a player of Upton's caliber could help the Red Sox in both the short and long-term, I reject the notion that "it's imperative" for the Red Sox to make a deal.  Furthermore, I reject the idea of making a move merely to placate a fan base that's irrationally suspicious or angry.  It's a terrible idea.  The second you make a move based on either of the above two reasons, you're making a huge mistake.  Decisions like these need to be made based on objective analysis, not the overly emotional cries of the fans or media. 

Is it in the Red Sox best interests to make a few upgrades?  Sure.  Do they have to trade for Upton in particular?  No.  Further down in the article, Gasper mentions that Upton will be cheaper over the next five seasons than either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.  While this is technically true, it's somewhat misleading.  Crawford and Werth are free agents.  If the Red Sox were to sign one of the two outfielders, they would have give up a first round draft pick to the losing team as compensation.  (Note that they're already receiving a better first round pick from Detroit for signing VMart.)  This is, of course, in addition to paying said player's annual salary.

With Upton, the Red Sox would not only have to take on Upton's salary ($49.5M through 2015), but also trade away valuable major league players and/or prospects in return.  If reports are true, the Red Sox would be giving up three relatively cheap (albeit arbitration) seasons for Jacoby Ellsbury, and five cost controllable seasons for closer in waiting Daniel Bard for Upton.  And that's before we discuss the two to three additional prospects that will be required to complete the deal.  Depending on the prospects the Diamondbacks ask for (Casey Kelly?), the overall cost of the deal could become prohibitive.

Despite what Gasper leads the reader to believe, a trade for Upton is not as cut and dry as it appears.  There is a significant cost to making a trade.  If the Red Sox were to overpay for Upton, it could hamper their ability to trade for an important piece at the July 31st trading deadline.  Furthermore, trading away four or five talented major league caliber players and prospects could have a long-term affect on the team's ability to maintain maximum payroll flexibility.  

Update: Upton's No Trade List

On Saturday, I reported (via Ken Rosenthal), that the four teams named on Justin Upton's no trade list were the A's, Tigers, Royals, and Indians.  Well, it turns out that report was partially incorrect.  Earlier today, Rosenthal corrected his report (via tweet).  Apparently, it's the Mariners, not the Indians, that are on the list.  This is rather unfortunate for the Mariners as they've been reported to be among Upton's most ardent suitors.  I'm not 100% sure what he has against Mariners, although it may have something to do with Safeco Field's ability to punish right handed power hitters (see Adrian Beltre).

Upton's No Trade List

While I lost a little respect for Ken Rosenthal for rocking the George Will bow tie during the World Series, he remains one of the most thorough sports writers around.   Today, he tweeted the answer to the question that was on everyone's mind:  Who are the four teams on Justin Upton's no trade list.   Ok.  Maybe it wasn't on everyone's mind, but it definitely was something that I wondered about from time to time.  (And by time to time, I mean the last couple of days since the Justin Upton trade rumors began.)  None of the four teams named (A's, Royals, Tigers, and Indians) are too much of a surprise.  The A's, Royals, and Indians are small market clubs that usually have little margin for error.  I'm a little surprised by the Tigers being on the list, but mostly because the Pirates seem like a more logical choice.  Outside of those four teams, Upton can be traded to any one of the other 26 teams. 

Despite all of the talk about Upton's availability in the sports media (and here), I don't think Upton will be traded.  In all honesty, Kevin Towers is probably trying to get a sense of the market.  I can't say I blame him.  Plus, you never know.  Maybe he gets blown away, and someone makes him an offer he can't refuse.  It's worth a try.

Why not to trade for Justin Upton

On the surface, trading for Justin Upton makes superficial sense for all the reasons that basically every decision made by Ruben Amaro over the past two years has not. If you are not familiar with Amaro’s work, please stop reading this entry and immediately go to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If you can view the contract numbers for Lidge, Ibanez, or Howard without giggling, please stop reading this blog as we are obviously not intended for you. The previous few years have seen teams place greater value on their younger players, as more general managers have become conscious of the fact that a deep pool of young, cost-controlled talent is the basis for being a successful organization. Several years may pass before a player of Upton’s perceived caliber is placed on the trading block again. However, it is my position that this trade is untenable for two significant reasons. Justin Upton’s uncertain future production and the price and opportunity cost of the prospects necessary to make this trade.

If we look deep down beneath the mountain of hype that is Justin Upton, we see that he is just not a very good hitter. Upton’s Career wRC+ of 115 places him in the hallowed company of players such as George Bell, Greg Vaughn, and Geoff Jenkins. His career K% has him sharing a neighborhood with Pete Inciviglia and Brad Wilkerson. The high K rate is most likely related to a contact% that finds him sandwiched between Weeks and LaRoche. High strikeout rates such as these are often found on power hitters whose 3 True Outcomes focus leads to the feast or famine results synonymous with Adam Dunn or Jack Cust. However, Upton has managed to hit only 43 home runs in his past two seasons. This is particularly disappointing given that he plays half of his games in Kelly Johnson Resurrection Field. If you would like to argue that I cherry picked metrics that portray Upton in a negative light, go ahead and do so. Afterwards, post a comment showing the metrics that portray him positively. Through his first few years, Upton has been little more than a slightly above average hitter and has shown very little to support any evolution into an elite level batsman at the major league level. Upton does rate as an above average fielder, more or less so depending on the metric used. However, as a total package, the propaganda has outweighed the production.

The second and most important issue with this trade is found in the price hanging over Upton’s head. Kevin Towers has not officially announced trade parameters so any assumption on exactly what it will take to acquire Upton remains supposition. However, a variety of media sources has suggested that it will take 3 to 5 major league ready players and prospects to complete the deal. Dave Cameron, using Victor Wang’s estimate of prospect value, argued that a team would need to give up a top-10 hitting and pitching prospect in order to acquire Upton. I happen to root for the Red Sox and the closest thing we could assemble to such a package would most likely involve several of the following players: Daniel Bard, Jacoby Ellsbury, Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, Jed Lowrie, and Anthony Rizzo. I did not list Buchholz because I assume he is off the board in any but the most ridiculous of trades; i.e., heads up for Pujols or King Felix. The loss of this many prospects and young player would cripple the Red Sox’s already flailing farm system. In addition, the wholesale movement of these players would prevent the team from improving itself in any further trades. While I could do a separate post on why I would rather Theo trade for A-Gon than Upton, suffice it to say that I would much rather acquire the better player at the lower price.

Justin Upton remains a young player with unknown potential. I happen to believe that it is less than prudent to pay for that potential, especially when one examines Upton’s hitting flaws and the cost of the trade both now and in the future. I would rather save the prospects in the hopes that Dayton Moore loses his last functioning neuron and begins a fire sale of the Kansas City Royals’ admirably stocked farm system.

Justin Upton on the Block

As Ken Rosenthal reported today, while the Diamondbacks are listening to offers for right fielder Justin Upton, they’ll need to be “blown away” in order to trade him.  Perhaps, I’m being a bit naïve, but isn’t that the case for pretty much every player?  Seriously.  If I was the GM of a baseball team, every player would be on the table at all times.  Does that mean I would trade them?  Not necessarily.  But I would leave the option open because every player has a finite value.  If you can exceed that value by trading for other players, you have to go for it.  My point is that Towers shouldn’t have to say Upton is on the table, it should be understood.  By saying it publically, Towers is indicating that he’s looking to make a trade. 

This leads me to my next point.  Why are the Diamondbacks openly advertising Justin Upton?  At 23, Upton is one of the most talented players in baseball.  Sure, he took a small step backwards in 2010, but that doesn’t mean doesn’t have superstar potential.  Upton has tremendous power potential, plays above average defense at a corner outfield position, has good speed, and gets on base at a good clip.  We’re talking about a perennial .300/.400/.500 guy once he hits his prime.  I can even see a few 30/30 seasons in his future if he can develop his base stealing skills a little more.   Adding a little more intrigue to the situation, Upton is signed to a team friendly deal through 2015.  With as much talent as Upton possesses, he’ll probably provide two or three times the amount of on field value when it’s compared to his salary.         

Hardball Talk’s Aaron Gleeman had this to say about the performance of players Upton’s age:

“…very few hitters in baseball history have been as productive as Upton through age 22.

In fact, here’s the complete list of all the players in the past 50 years to get at least 1,500 appearances through age 22 and post a higher OPS than Upton: Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr., Tony Conigliaro, Boog Powell, Cesar Cedeno.

That’s it. That’s the whole list.”

That’s a pretty impressive list.  A-Rod and Griffey are on their way to the Hall of Fame.  Cabrera isn’t that far behind, provided he can keep up his current pace.  After fast starts by Powell and Cedeno, their careers faded once they hit the mid-point in their career.  Still, they were All-Star quality players in their prime.  As for Tony C, well his career was side-tracked by a bean ball to the eye.  He was never the same after that.  You can neither prepare nor account for freak injuries like Conigliaro’s. 

While Upton’s current pace isn’t a guarantee of how his career will turn out, it definitely shows he’s in some pretty elite company.  Just based on his performance, age, and contract, he appears to be the type of player you’d want to build around, not trade away.  Athletes like Upton with superstar potential don’t come along very often.

Update:  The Red Sox have reportedly asked about Upton.  As a Red Sox fan, he's one of the few players, for whom I'd consider emptying the farm system.