Marlins Check in on Young

Seems like everyone's kicking the tires on Michael Young these days.  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Marlins are the latest team to express interest in the former All-Star. 

Not surprisingly, a source with knowledge of the discussions called the trade prospects between the two clubs "a real reach."  In order to make a deal work, the Rangers would have to eat a substantial portion of the $48M remaining on Young's contract.  Now, this is pure speculation, but considering the Marlins status as a low revenue club, I'd have to imagine they'd want the Rangers to eat as much as 75% (similar to what the Dodgers reportedly requested) of the contract.  As I've mentioned before, it doesn't make sense for the Rangers to bite a such a lopsided deal because it would hamper their ability to improve their roster going forward.

The Marlins do need a third baseman.  Currently, Matt Dominguez, who hasn't started a game above AA, is listed as their starting third baseman.  Ideally, Young would be an upgrade, but he figures to be too expensive to be considered a reasonable option. 

Additionally, the Marlins are not included on Young's no trade exception list, so he'd have to approve any trade before it gets finalized.   For reference, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, the eight teams on Young's no trade exception list are the Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Twins, Yankees, Cardinals and Astros.

Hanley Ramirez Motivated for 2011

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that Hanley Ramirez has a new attitude, and will come to Spring Training with the "hunger of a rookie."

“I’m going to be the first player to win Rookie of the Year twice,” Hanley Ramirez playfully told the Marlins and his agent this winter. That’s obviously impossible, but his message – as agent Andy Mota explained – is clear: Ramirez “has the hunger of a rookie” after a humbling 2010.

Ramirez, 27, started his offseason workouts a month early and is extremely driven to rebound from last year, when his average dropped 42 points from 2009 (.342 to .300) and his RBI total plunged from 106 to 76. His errors rose from 10 to 16 in nine fewer games (142)."

While I think it's great that Ramirez is coming into 2011 with a renewed motivation, his problem in 2010 wasn't motivation--well, at least not entirely.  His problems (and I use that term very loosely) stemmed from the fact he wasn't squaring up pitches in the same way he did in previous seasons, which is evidenced by his batted ball rates.  In 2010, Ramirez produced the lowest line drive rate (16.3% versus a career rate of 18.5%), and easily the highest ground ball percentage of his career (51.0% versus 43.7%).  Not surprisingly, a low line drive rate combined with a high ground ball rate isn't particularly conducive to high batting averages and home run totals. 

So what was the root cause of Ramirez's misfortune with regards to his batted ball rates?  It's tough to pinpoint exactly.  Some analysts have said his performance was the cause of small sample size variance and possibly poor luck.  While the 162 game baseball season is a fairly sizable sample, it's important to note that it's still small enough to be swayed by unexpected swings in performance.  One or two below average months could have a significant impact on a player's year end statistics. 

The scouting side of the house has made the claim that pitchers finally stopped throwing Ramirez so many of high pitches he typically jacks, and started throwing him more sinking fastballs.  This makes sense because good sinking fastballs, particular those thrown low and away, frequently lead to weakly hit ground balls that are converted to outs.  Provided Ramirez makes the adjustment and lays off of those sinking fastballs (as it appeared he did in September when he posted a 26.3% line drive rate and a 1:1 GB/FB ratio), he should have no problem turning his performance around in 2011.  If he doesn't make the adjustment, we should expect either another season on par with 2010, or a season of lesser quality as pitchers continue to exploit this weakness. 

One other important thing to note.  In 2010, Ramirez put up a .373 wOBA and 4.4 fWAR.  By most standards, he put up a monster season for a shortstop.  It seems we've gotten a bit spoiled by Ramirez after back-to-back 7 WAR seasons in 2008 and 2009.  It's important to keep in perspective that even though he had a "down" year, he was still one of the best shortstops in baseball.

Marlins, Nolasco Come to Terms

Well, another potential Yankee trade target has come off of the boards. 

AOL Fanhouse is reporting that the Marlins and starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco, 28, have come to terms on a three year extension worth $26.5M.  The contract will buy out Nolasco’s final two years of arbitration eligibility along with his first year of free agent eligibility. 

Nolasco has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons.  Based on Nolasco’s peripherals from 2008-2010 (8.60 K/9 and 4.44 K/BB), he looks as if he should be an ace (or near ace) quality pitcher.  Unfortunately for Nolasco, he’s been plagued by an unusually high BABIP and HR/FB rate, which has pushed his ERA to a higher than expected 4.31 (three year sample size.   For reference, his xFIP during that time is roughly 3.50 during the same sample.

After reviewing his batted ball rates, I fully expect Nolasco’s BABIP to regress back to the .300 mean in 2011.  Nolasco doesn’t allow an unusually high number of line drives, and he has a ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) that’s nearly 1:1.  Due to the number of fly balls he allows (around 40%), he will probably always have to deal having a high home run rate.  That said, once his BABIP regresses back to around .300, the home runs he gives up will likely be less harmful; thus causing his ERA to drop accordingly.

I love this deal for the Marlins.  Signing Nolasco to an extension puts the Marlins in a very good position to contend for a playoff spot when they move into their new ballpark in 2012.  Currently, they have All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez and Cy Young quality starting pitcher Josh Johnson locked up for the next couple of seasons as well.

Vazquez Signs One Year Contract with Marlins

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reports that the Florida Marlins and Javier Vazquez have come to terms on a one year deal worth around $6-7M.  I have to admit I'm a little perplexed by this one.  Last week, there were several reports indicating Vazquez had turned a couple of multi-year offers.  One of those offers came supposedly came from the Washington Nationals at 2 years $20M.  It's possible that the Nationals offer was bogus (this is the Hot Stove Season after all), but if it wasn't, I'd be very interested to find out why he turned down multi-year deal with a larger annual average salary.

Just two seasons ago, Vazquez was one of the most effective pitchers in the National League (with the Atlanta Braves) going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA (2.82 xFIP), 9.77 K/9, 5.41 K/BB, and 6.5 WAR.  His performance earned him a controversial fourth place finish (ESPN Insider subscription only) in the NL Cy Young award voting.*

*Personally, I loved Law's decision to put Vazquez on his ballot.  If he'd received better run support, no one would've complained about Law's decision to put Vazquez on his ballot ahead of Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter.

Prior to the 2010 season, Vazquez was traded to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and a couple of minor leaguers.  Throughout the season, Vazquez struggled mightily seeing huge spikes in his walk, home run, line drive, and contact rates, which was mostly likely caused by a corresponding drop in fastball velocity from 91.1 MPH in 2009 to 87.7 MPH in 2010.  Vazquez was so ineffective that he was not only demoted to the bullpen twice during the season, but also left off of the Yankees playoff roster in both the ALDS and ALCS. 

Assuming Vazquez can rediscover his fastball velocity, he should be a pretty nice addition to the Marlins.  He'll fill the role as the Marlins fifth starter slotting behind Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad.   If Vazquez should falter, the Marlins have a more than capable replacement in Alex Sanabia.  At $7M per season, we can't really consider Vazquez a low-risk signing (especially since $7M is a lot to the Marlins), but it certainly does have the potential to be high-reward.  If Vazquez can rebound, and become a 2-3 WAR pitcher in 2011, this signing could have a huge impact on the Marlins ability to reach the playoffs.  That is, if they can overcome some of their bizarre personnel decisions this winter (i.e. the Uggla/Infante trade and John Buck signing...

Gee...That was Fast

It's amazing what just a few days can do.  Last week, the Marlins announced they'd cut off negotiations with All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla.  On Sunday, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports announced the Marlins were looking to deal Uggla quickly, preferably this week.  Today, the Marlins finalized a deal that would send Uggla to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for utility infielder Omar Infante and relief pitcher Mike Dunn.

This looks like a great deal for the Braves.  The only question is, where do they play Uggla?  Currently, Uggla's a second baseman, but he's widely considered to be below average defensively at the position.  The Braves already have Martin Prado at second.  Prado has experience playing first and third, so it's possible the Braves could move Prado to allow for Uggla to play second. 

Many scouts and analysts think a move to third base would be beneficial for Uggla, but Chipper Jones is entrenched there.  Jones is currently recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL he injured late in 2010.  Reports show that he's progressing on schedule, and should be ready to return by Spring Training.  Still, ACL injuries can be tricky, especially for soon to be 39 year old infielders.  While Jones has been solid defensively at third over the past few years, his post-surgery mobility could be compromised.  As a result, a move to first base in the short term might be beneficial for both Jones and the Braves.  This is my favorite scenario for the Braves.  It puts Uggla in a position to contribute to the team defensively, while allowing Jones to not have to worry about playing such a physically demanding position.  Also, it gives the Braves a little more time to allow for first base prospect Freddie Freeman to develop at AAA.   

The Braves have a few months to figure out where they want Uggla is going to play.  The key is that they got another solid bat in their lineup, which they sorely needed.  All they had to give up was Infante (who is a prime candidate to see a regression to the mean), and Dunn (who racks up the strikeouts, but lacks control).  I'm not sure what the Marlins were thinking when they accepted the trade.  Normally, they come out looking the smartest guys in the negotiating room.  This time, not so much.  Maybe they know something I/we don't know?  I'm not sure.  To me, it looks like they forced this one through.

Dan Uggla on the Move

 
Contract negotiations between the Marlins and Dan Uggla have reached an impasse after Uggla rejected a 4 year $48M offer.  While the Marlins are still interested in retaining Uggla's services, they're not willing to give in to his demands (reportedly 4 years at $56M).  Now, the Marlins are seriously entertaining the idea of trading him.  Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal reports, that the Tigers, Red Sox, Braves, Nationals, Giants, Cardinals, Orioles and Blue Jays are among the potential suitors.  There are plenty of possibilities for each of the teams:

Tigers - The Tigers still have Scott Sizemore who has showed promise in the upper levels of the minors. They've apparently given up on him despite the fact he's only received 163 PAs so far.  Seems like a waste to me.  Anyway, if they're not going to play Sizemore, Uggla makes quite a bit of sense for them.  With Inge and Peralta gobbling up at bats on the left side of the infield, the Tigers will need a player that will be able to provide the offense they give away.  Uggla fits that bill. 

Red Sox - The Red Sox already have a second baseman in Dustin Pedroia, but they could have an opening at third base if Adrian Beltre leaves via free agency.  Uggla is widely considered to be a below average defensive second baseman, so moving him to less challenging position like 3B would likely be beneficial.  He definitely has the bat to play at the corner spot.

Braves - The Braves glaring weakness during the playoffs this year was their lack of infield depth.  While Martin Prado will be ready come Spring Training, Chipper Jones will not.  Trading for Uggla gives the Braves two options.  The first is play Uggla at second, while moving Prado to third.  The other option is to move Uggla to third base where he'd do less damage defensively.  Either way, adding Uggla is an upgrade.

Nationals - Their second baseman is Cristian Guzman.  Enough said.

Giants - The Giants already have Freddy Sanchez, and I don't think he's going anywhere.  If they make the move for Uggla, he'll likely either replace Uribe/Sandoval at 3B or Burrell in LF.  This is an upgrade no matter how you look at it. 

Cardinals - The Cardinals are reportedly looking for a new 2B and SS.  Luckily for Uggla, the Cardinals are willing to give up a little on the defensive side for some extra offense.  Uggla fits that mold perfectly for the Cardinals.  That said, I don't see him being a long term solution.  They already have quite a bit of payroll tied up to a few players, and Pujols is still unsigned past 2011.

Orioles - Brian Roberts is already entrenched at 2B, so Uggla would probably move to 3B.  Prospect Josh Bell (acquired from the Dodgers for George Sherill a couple of years ago) was given an opportunity this year, and didn't do so well either offensively or defensively.  Like with Sizemore, it's probably too early to give up on him, but the Orioles need to start making moves toward being competitive soon.  They haven't had a winning season since 1997, and they have a ton of payroll flexibility.  If there's one thing this team needs, it's a power bat.  Uggla provides that.  The Orioles are incredibly deep in the pitching category for prospects, and could make a trade without emptying the cupboard.

Blue Jays - Despite Aaron Hill's forgettable (and unlucky) season, he's going to be the starting 2B next year no matter what.  Uggla might be a candidate to fill the spot vacated by Edwin Encarnacion earlier this week.

The Marlins are probably right to cut of negotiations where they did.  Uggla is a good player, but he's already on the wrong side of 30.  He's a below average defender at a premium position; strikes out at a high rate; and isn't a great base runner.  Giving him an additional $2M per season, considering the Marlins revenue situation, is pretty risky.  He's not the type of player for whom you break the bank.  Giving into Uggla's demands ($14M per season) puts his salary in the same range as teammate Hanley Ramirez.  Ramirez is younger and far more talented.  Knowing the Marlins though, they'll probably fleece some unsuspecting team, and get a couple of promising prospects in return.