Arbitration Recap

Today is deadline day for teams and players to exchange salary arbitration figures.  Typically, deadline day is met with a flurry of deals by arbitration eligible players seeking to avoid having to go through the uncomfortable experience of an arbitration hearing.  Today, was no different.  Rather than putting multiple individual posts about each individual signing, I thought it would be more efficient to do a quick round-up of deals completed today.

• Prince Fielder - According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Brewers and Prince Fielder have come to terms on a one year $15.5M contract.  This looks like a solid move for both teams.  Fielder gets the distinction of being the highest paid Brewer of all time, while the Brew Crew retains their power hitting first baseman for one last run at the promised land.  Fielder's true talent level is between 4.5-5.0 WAR at this point, so Milwaukee should have no problem justifying his contract.
• Jonathan Papelbon - Sean McAdam of Comcast Sports Net reports that Papelbon and the Red Sox agreed to a one year $12M contract.  After being one of the two or three most effective closers in baseball from 2006-2008, Papelbon has struggled mightily over the past two seasons.  At only 30 years old, there's always the chance he rediscovers his dominant form, but he'd have to not only regain his elite control, but also show he can consistently throw his plus-fastball and splitter at the same time.  With Papelbon's true talent level around 1.7-2.0 WAR, he'd need to have a season on par with his 2007 campaign (2.4 WAR) in order to justify his contract.  That might be too much to ask at this point.
• Heath Bell - SI's Jon Heyman reported that Heath Bell has signed a one year $7.5M contract with the Padres in his last season of arbitration-eligibility.  Bell, 33, has been one of the best closers in baseball over the past two seasons posting a double digit K/9 rate and a K/BB rate over 3.00.  Bell will be an interesting free agent case next season.  With Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon and Yankees set-up man Rafael Soriano both may hit the free agent market next season, Bell may end up being the odd man out when it comes to scoring a big free agent contract.  His true talent level is around 2.0 WAR, so he should have no problem justifying his 2011 salary.
• Matt Capps - According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, the Twins have agreed to terms with Matt Capps on a one year $7.15M deal.  This deal struck me a bit by surprise considering how many relief pitchers the Twins allowed to leave via free agency (Crain, Guerrier, Fuentes, and Rauch).  Capps is a solid pitcher, I don't think anyone would consider him to be within the first or second tier of closers.  His walk rate is solid, but his strikeout rate is a bit lacking for a closer quality pitcher.  Considering Capps's 2011 salary, and the cost of acquiring him (catching prospect Wilson Ramos), it might've been a smarter move for the Twins to non-tender Capps.  
• Cody Ross - Jane McCauley of the Associated Press reports that the Giants and outfielder Cody Ross have agreed to terms on a one year deal worth $6.3M.  Ross made $4.65M last season, and given the nature of arbitration, he was guaranteed a sizable raise.  Still, I can't help but think that his salary is almost entirely the function of his huge postseason.  Ross was an average player in every sense of the word last season posting a .324 wOBA, +2.7 UZR, and 2.2 WAR.  As a 2.0 WAR true talent player, he'll be worth his salary in the WAR-sense, but still seems like a bit of an overpay.  It probably would've been better for the Giants to non-tender him, and try to sign him for less as a free agent.
• John Danks - The Miami Herald reports that the White Sox have agreed to terms with John Danks on a one year $6M deal.   Danks really seemed to come into his own last season making improvements with some small improvements his control and ground ball rates.  His strikeout rate is a little low for someone who induces whiffs on 9% of his pitches, but it's still acceptable.  Going into his age-26 season, he looks like a pretty solid bet to produce another 3-4 WAR season in 2011.   
• Matt Garza - According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, the Cubs have come to terms with Matt Garza on a one year deal worth $5.95M.  Garza was a "Super-Two" arbitration eligible player, so as a fourth year player, this was his second time through the process.  As I've mentioned a few times before, Garza put up solid primary numbers, but allowed more contact, induced fewer strikeouts, and saw a 4% drop in his already low ground ball rate.  Even with going to the weaker National League, Garza will have to turn around his peripherals if he's going to be able to sustain the kind of success his primary number indicate.  Garza is a 2.5 WAR true talent player, so he'll provide more than enough value to justify his salary in 2011.  He's going to have to improve upon that number over the next couple of years, if he's going to be able to justify his 2012 and 2013 arbitration salaries.
• Carlos Quentin - The Miami Herald reports that Quentin and the White Sox have agreed in principle to a one year deal worth $5.05M.  After putting up a near-MVP quality season in 2008, Quentin has fallen on hard times over the past two seasons.  His batting average has plummeted, walk rate has dropped, and defense has deteriorated beyond repair.  It's gotten so bad for Quentin that he officially qualifies as a replacement player at this point.  The White Sox tried to unload him earlier this offseason, but not surprisingly, didn't find any takers.  Quentin will need to produce a solid season in 2011, or else he'll become a candidate to be non-tendered after the season.  He probably should've been non-tendered after 2010, but no GM wants to be the guy non-tendering a 28 year old hitter with 30-35 home run power.
• Clint Barmes - According to Ken Rosenthal, the Astros and Clint Barmes agreed to a one year deal worth $3.95M.  This one actually makes the Papelbon deal look slightly palatable.  Between the Rockies and Astros last season, Barmes produced a pathetic .284 wOBA.  Keep in mind that he did this while hitting in two of the better hitters parks (Coors and Minute Maid) in baseball.  Going into his age-32 season, Barmes is a 1.0 WAR player at best.  If the Astros had been smart (which they're not), and non-tendered him at the beginning of the offseason, they probably could've re-signed him for a quarter of the cost. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury - According to Sean McAdam, Jacoby Ellsbury has agreed to a one year $2.4M contract with the Boston Red Sox.  This was Ellsbury's first crack at arbitration, and he didn't fare too poorly considering he only played 18 games last season due to a recurring rib injury.  Ellsbury should be completely healthy going into the 2011 season, so there's no reason he shouldn't be able to repeat his 3.0 WAR performance from 2009.  He's going into his age-27 season, so a lot will be expected of him.  At some point, he's going to need to not only show marked improvement in his plate discipline, but also exhibit his vaunted raw power during games. 

There were many others who signed including Joba Chamberlain, Adam Jones, Josh Willingham, Joe Saunders, and Ryan Ludwick, but I think a ten player analysis is enough for now.  Other players will sign over the next month as they rush to avoid a potential arbitration hearing.  They won't come in a rush like the ones today though.  Instead, they'll trickle in.

Hot Stove Season Ends, Arbitration Season Begins

Mmmmmm...Donut

It's that time of year again.  The Hot Stove Season is quickly cooling down, and the arbitration season is starting heat up.  According to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, 119 major league players filed for salary arbitration yesterday.  This list includes AL MVP Josh Hamilton, NL MVP Joey Votto, power hitting first baseman Prince Fielder, closer Jonathan Papelbon, and surprise power hitter Jose Bautista. 

The salary arbitration process is pretty archaic.  When players and teams exchange salary figures in mid-January, they are given the option to negotiate a contract.  In most cases, the negotiations are fairly simple, and contracts are finalized by the mid-February deadline.  In situations where both parties can not come to an agreement by the deadline, they're required to appear before an arbitration panel and plead their cases.  These situations are often ugly, partisan, and uncomfortable. 

The way the system is set up, nearly every player that files for arbitration ends up receiving a substantial raise. About half of the players are expected to agree to terms with their teams within the next week.  Only a handful of the cases will actually get heard by the arbitration panel. 

A Moment of Silence for a Fallen Comrade

One of the saddest things in this world is watching a commodity past its peak. It is our nature to deny our own decay and carry on long beyond the point of one's prime. Whether it is Weezer's dogged insistence on making music after the Green Album or Jack Nicholson/Al Pacino/Robert Deniro's glazed, disinterested look in basically every movie any of them has made since I was legally old enough to drive, we very rarely, if ever, know when to quit. Fire Brand of the American League is a blog dedicated to Red Sox coverage and was a well written and well developed medium for discussion for some time. Unfortunately, this can hardly be considered true anymore. An article posted on November 11th entitled, The Red Sox Should not Trade for Adrian Gonzalez, stands a shining microcosm of all things wrong this site at present.

I don't want to ruin the surprise for you but the author, Tom Fratamico, does not believe that Adrian Gonzalez is an appropriate candidate for trade. He believes this because his career comps are not promising, because he is not an adequate return for our valued prospects, and because we would not be "buying any of A-Gone’s seasons on right side of thirty." He also explicitly states that A-Gone is a riskier projection in 2012 and beyond than Fielder. There are so many inaccuracies and ignored factors in this article that I am forced to rebut them all David Letterman style with a Top Ten List.

Top Ten Issues I have with this article

10) Ignores the fact that the dearth of available third baseman this offseason renders the movement of Youkilis and the acquiring of a premium option at first base the only significant manner in which Theo Epstein could improve the team's infield.
9) Describes Gonzalez as the riskier player despite the fact that Fielder considers eating an entire roast suckling pig a light snack.
8) Glosses over the significant defensive advantage Gonzalez holds over Fielder
7) Ignores signability issues for Fielder in 2011 that are a given due to his agent
6) Does not acknowledge that Gonzalez has spent the past few seasons playing in a statistically dampening stadium with Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley, and David Eckstein as wing men.
5) Does not offer statistical evidence of any kind to support his contentions that "the pair have put up similar production with the wood." and that "Fielder also appears to be less of a risk with the stick going forward"
4) References Red Sox's valuable prospects in the article. Who are these prospects and where are they hiding them? Lars Anderson looks like he purchased Andy Marte's career arc on EBay, Felix Doubront is apparently Venezuelan for Brian Rose, and Jose Iglesias and Anthony Rizzo are at least two years away from major league relevance. When the great white hope for my team are a pitcher who just decided he might consider pitching full time and an outfielder whose career upside mirrors that of Ben Francisco, I fail to see how valuable these prospects can be.
3) The use of the phrase "assuming Pujols stays in St. Louis", as if it is not a foregone conclusion that he would either be a Cardinal or be given the GDP of Suriname to join the Yankees if he ever left the gateway to the west.
2) The author's repeated assumption that there is no way the Red Sox could acquire either player any time before 2012. There are more than one window for the Red Sox to acquire the player of their choice prior to the 2012 season.
1) The author's use of historical comparisons to devalue a player. Historical comparisons are at best a curiousity or a discussion point not a significant argument against a player's ability. Oh and for the record, I can cherry pick through Pujols' comps and say that his similarity to Todd Helton, Juan Gonzlez, and Jim Edmonds does not bode well for his future.

There, I feel much now having got that off my chest. For those who would argue that any one can have a bad moment, the site's latest article discusses alternatives to Adrian Beltre and suggests we pick up either the human strike out machine, Mark Reynolds or Alex Gordon. I mean any time you can replace an 8 WAR player with one who is not good enough to start for that glorified Double A team in Kansas City, you have to do it right? Right? I think it is best we all assume that the site was acquired in a hostile takeover by Dan Shaughnessy and Murray Chass and just find somewhere else to get information on Red Sox baseball.