Kenny Williams Calls Pujols Demands "Asinine"

Never one to shy away from expressing his opinion, White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams shared his thoughts on the idea of paying Albert Pujols $30M per season. 

“For the game’s health as a whole, when we’re talking about 30 million dollar players, I think it’s asinine,” Williams said in an interview with Comcast SportsNet. “We have gotten to the point of no return. Something has to happen. And if it means the game being shut down for the sake of bringing sanity to it, to franchises that aren’t going to stop the insanity, I’m all for it.”

So it's asinine to spend $30M per season on a perennial 7 WAR player (Pujols), but it's a good thing to spend $26M per season on two players (Konerko and Dunn) who are not only older, but will only provide 4-5 WAR per season.  Gotcha. 

I really wish these "the sky is falling" arguments with regards to Pujols's contract demands would go away.  These same cries were around when A-Rod signed his landmark 10 year $252M deal in 2000 as well.  Do you know how many $200M+ deals have been signed since?  One.  One!  A-Rod's 10 year $275M contract in 2008.  If Pujols signs a comparable contract, I think it's safe to say that it won't change the landscape of baseball's financial structure.

The Countdown is Over

The Albert Pujols negotiating window has officially expired.  Last night, there was word from SI’s Jon Heyman that the Cardinals had offered Pujols an eight year deal with an average annual salary that was “south of $30M.”  A couple of hours later, a source close to the Pujols camp spoke to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports and decried the rumors as “inaccurate, reckless and outrageous.”  So much for confidentiality…

Based on a report by ESPN’s Buster Olney earlier this morning, it appears the two sides may’ve stopped negotiating a few days ago.

"Pujols contract talks are over. Deadline will pass without a deal. Have not been proposals swapped in last 100 hours or so."

At this point, it’s irrelevant when the two sides last swapped proposals.  All that matters is that the deadline has passed, and negotiations have ceased.  Barring any unforeseen development, Pujols will become a free agent for the first time this winter.

Cardinals Offer Pujols 8-Year Contract

Goonies never say die, and apparently neither do the Cardinals. 
 
According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Cardinals have made an eight year contract offer to superstar first baseman Albert Pujols.  While details of the proposal aren't known, Heyman's confirmed that the offer was for less than $30M per season.  With only 15 hours remaining in the negotiating window, prospects of a deal coming together appear bleak. Still, it's important to note that deals like this frequently come together quickly at the last moment. 

One interesting thing to note.  According to Heyman, Pujols's negotiating team, at one point, "asked for piece of the team."  While this isn't technically possible, it's incredibly complicated, and would likely need buy in from the Players Union.  Understandably, the Cardinals declined. 

Pujols has been reported to be seeking a ten year $275M contract on par with the one Alex Rodriguez received from the Yankees after the 2007 season.  The deadline to sign Pujols is noon on Wednesday.

Ken Rosenthal's Crazy Pujols Trade Proposals

Ugh.  So we're at that point in the offseason now.  Ken Rosenthal shares some speculative trade ideas involving Albert Pujols.  Buckle in kids, this is going to be a bumpy ride.

"WARNING: What you are about to read is pure speculation. It has not, to my knowledge, been discussed at any level. In fact, it is not even my idea.

Harold Reynolds mentioned the possibility Monday on MLB Network. My colleague, Jon Paul Morosi, informed me of it later that night. I then stole the idea from Morosi as if I were Lindsay Lohan in a jewelry store.

Albert Pujols for Mark Teixeira.

And, if that doesn’t work, Pujols for Ryan Howard.

Think it’s nuts? Think again." 

Yeah, you're certifiably nuts.  First of all, you made the mistake of actually taking anything Harold Reynolds says seriously.  Come on, Ken, you're smarter than that.  Reynolds?  These are the kinds of inane ideas you expect out of him.  Hence the reason he's been employed as a TV analyst for ESPN and MLB Network.

Secondly, neither one of the aforementioned trade proposals, nor the ones he later proposes involving Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez, are plausible.  There are just way too many moving parts involved to make this happen.  Yeah, it's fun to speculate, and I'm sure he's just bored out of his mind, but still.  If we're going to speculate, shouldn't we speculate intelligently?

Pujols Turns Down Cardinals Proposal

UPDATE (2/14/2011 at 11:35 a.m.):  Albert Pujols has decided to push his deadline back by one day to Wednesday at 12:00 p.m. ET.  Cardinals shouldn’t read too much into this.  The only reason Pujols extended the deadline was to ensure he didn’t overshadow Cardinal legend Stan Musial.   Musial is scheduled to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Obama on Tuesday.    

Original Post (2/14/2011 at 10:00 a.m.):  Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that an anonymous source has informed him Albert Pujols rejected the Cardinals latest (or first) contract proposal.  The source went on to say that Pujols is expected formally announce his intentions to close negotiations on Tuesday.  Barring any unexpected changes in events, talks won’t resume until after the season.  There’s no word as to what the Cardinals might have offered.

While I understand Pujols’s motivation for ceasing contract talks, I think it’s foolish for him to think this won’t be a distraction.  It’s going to be.  This doesn’t just end because Pujols wants it to end.  In fact, his reluctance to discuss the situation only fuels speculation.  In fact, once he announces his intentions on Tuesday, the real fun for the media begins--if it hasn’t already.  They’ll ask questions like:  Are Pujols’s demands unreasonable?  Is he putting himself ahead of the team by looking for A-Rod money?  Where will he land if he becomes a free agent?  What’s the extent of the potential backlash if he leaves?  Is the relationship between Pujols and DeWitt beyond repair?  Does Pujols really want to leave St. Louis?  And so on…  Every day, there will be a new story printed or posted that has a different angle on the situation.  He’ll field multiple questions from mumerous reporters all asking him about his situation and intentions after the season. While Pujols has already stated that he doesn’t intend to answer said questions, he’ll have to get used to fielding and deflecting them.

Furthermore, the distraction won’t be limited to just Pujols.  This situation has a wide-reaching impact on both his teammates and coaching staff as well.  Daily, each one of them will be asked questions about the manner in which Pujols’s contract situation is affecting the team.  While most of them will remain quiet, what happens if one of his teammates not only decides to anonymously speak to a reporter, but also makes disparaging remarks about the All-Star first baseman?  Can you imagine the scandal and clubhouse turmoil?  Talk about a distraction!  While this scenario is unlikely, all it takes is one disgruntled teammate to magnify an already overblown situation.

Ultimately, Pujols needs to do what he feels is best for both himself and the team.  He’s made his decision, and now he has to live with the consequences.  As someone who has neither been, nor never will be in his position, I refuse to pass judgment.  I only hope he’s considered all of the angles. 

One GM Confident Pujols Deal Will Get Done

While most baseball executives, media types, bloggers, and insiders think it's a foregone conclusion that Pujols hits free agency next winter, at least one GM thinks the Cardinals will re-sign by Pujols's self-imposed February 16th deadline.  In Nick Carfardo's Sunday morning column (this should be required reading for all baseball fans), he caught up with a "General Manager from a larger market" who has very little doubt that the two sides will eventually reach an agreement.

“They should stick to a number that makes sense for them, and if it’s not good enough, then you walk away,’’ said a general manager in a larger market. “He may be the brand in St. Louis, but you have to do what’s best for your organization.

“Think of what you could do with that money. Will you ever find a Pujols? No. But you can find 50 percent of him and use the other 50 percent to enhance your team in other areas.

“What will happen is, they’ll get it done. The Cardinals aren’t a small-market team, so they’re in that area where they probably have to do it because not doing it would create chaos and possible loss of revenue. But once in a while, you do something bold and think outside the box.’’

I agree.  This is basically what I've been arguing all along.  The Cardinals have been trying to position themselves as a small market club in the Pujols negotiations, and it's not really a fair comparison.  According to Forbes magazine's most recent appraisal of baseball clubs (April 2010), the Cardinals were named the eighth most valuable franchise (and ninth in terms of revenue) in the game, sandwiched between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the San Francisco Giants.  With a revenue stream of a mid-to-high end franchise, they certainly have the ability to construct a larger payroll without putting themselves at risk of financial insolvency.  They just choose not to, which is their right.  Still, I can't help but wonder if they've considered the potential loss in revenue (attendance, merchandising, concessions, TV ratings, etc.) that would result from Pujols's departure.  That should play a key role in determining whether or not to increase their offer to Pujols down the line.

I honestly believe that the two sides will eventually get something done.  The Cardinals front office has been playing it perfectly when it comes to staying true to the confidentiality agreement regarding the Pujols negotiations.  While there have been some reports, albeit somewhat vague, that have been played out in the media, it hasn't turned into the three ring circus in which the Derek Jeter negotiations evolved.   As a result, we don't know how big of a gap there is between the two parties.  Pujols is thought to be looking for an A-Rod type deal (10/$275M), while the Cardinals are believed to not be interested in extending Pujols beyond six or seven years.  There's been no word on the average annual salary the Cardinals are willing to give Pujols. 

Ultimately, both sides will need to make concessions in terms of salary and the length of the contract in order to get a deal done.  With only a few days remaining before Pujols arrives in camp, the likelihood of an agreement is pretty grim. 

Holliday's Altruistic Gesture is Nice, but Not Enough

Christmas was almost two months ago, but Matt Holliday appears to still be in the spirit of giving.  On ESPN Radio's Mike and Mike this morning, Holliday told fill-in Doug Gottleib that he'd be willing to defer a significant portion of his annual salary to help the Cardinals retain Albert Pujols.

"I deferred $2 million a year for the whole contract," Holliday told Doug Gottlieb on the show, "and I would be willing, if they came to me and said, 'Hey, this is what it's going to take to get Albert done, would you do it again or do more?' Scott [Boras, Holliday's agent] probably wouldn't like me to stay that, but if that's what it took, I would be willing to do that."

A couple of things come to mind.

Number one.  Holliday made it very clear that he hasn't been approached by the Cardinals front office regarding this scenario.  This was his idea, and his idea alone.  It's purely hypothetical at this point. 

Secondly, Holliday is already deferring $2M of his annual $17M salary each year through 2016.  Realistically, how much more is he willing to defer to ensure Pujols stays with the Cardinals?  $3M a year?  $5M a year?  Doubtful, but that's how much it would probably take to make a realistic impact.

Let's just assume for a second that Holliday agrees to defer an additional $4M per season, thus bringing his annual salary down to $11M.  While the additional money available certainly helps bridge the gap financially, it only solves the lesser of the two major issues keeping Pujols and the Cardinals from coming to an agreement.  The biggest difference between the two parties is not the average annual salary, but the length of the contract itself.  Pujols and Lozano have been pretty rigid in their demands for a ten year deal.  The Cardinals, on the other hand, would prefer to keep it to six or seven years.  How the two parties bridge that gap, I'm not sure.  I can say with all certainty that no amount of deferred salary (whether Holliday's or others) will put a dent in the philosophical differences between the two sides when it comes to contract length.

Matt Holliday's gesture is incredibly altruistic, but likely won't have any impact as to whether Pujols re-signs or chooses to seek employment elsewhere via free agency.

Cardinals Fans to God: "You’re Kidding, Right?"

UPDATE (2/9/2011 at 7:22 p.m.):  According to SI's Jon Heyman, there is "virtually no chance" of the Cardinals and Pujols coming to terms before the February 16th deadline.  The two sides are still incredibly far apart with Pujols looking for 10/$275M, while the Cardinals are looking to keep it at six or seven years.  

Original Post (2/9/2011 at 4:37 p.m.):  Do you remember the Albert Pujols contract “Dooms Day” clock I linked to this past weekend?  Well, it looks like we may have to take whatever time is remaining on that clock, and subtract three full days. 

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, Albert Pujols will be reporting to Spring Training on February 16^th, not February 19^th as originally expected.  For you math majors out there, that leaves the Cardinals with only six days to negotiate a contract with Pujols.  Otherwise, he’ll become a free agent after the end of the season.  As I’m sure you can imagine, just knowing Pujols could possibly become a free agent has Cardinals fans so nervous they’re biting their fingernails down to the cuticle.  After reading Brown’s article, they’ll probably transition from biting their fingernails, and move to lighting their hair on fire.

“All indications suggest that Pujols and the team that drafted him a dozen years ago are not close to an agreement, and that eight days won’t be time enough to negotiate and consummate not only the richest contract in club history, but possibly the richest in the history of the game. As of the weekend, the Cardinals hadn’t made a concrete offer.”

So let me get this straight.  The Cardinals have been negotiating with Pujols on and off since last winter, and still haven’t made him a “concrete offer”?  Really?  What are they doing?  Biding their time?  I don’t get it.  It makes me wonder if the Cardinals are really taking these negotiations seriously.

Also, I have to ask.  How did this information get leaked?  Didn’t Dan Lozano (Pujols’s agent) and Cardinals CEO Bill Dewitt make a pact to keep the negotiations private?  Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk had an interesting take on the situation.

"As Brown notes, Pujols has issued a virtual fatwah on negotiations through the media.  The Cardinals have said a bit more here and there. But this news — no offer made — doesn’t exactly help the Cardinals in the court of public opinion, so I question whether that would have come from them. It might help Pujols though. Probably would, actually, if fans get mad because they think the team isn’t making a hard push to lock up the best player most of them have ever cheered for.  Makes me wonder if Pujols — or his agent —  has changed tactics and is starting to leak a bit.  And if so, does that mean that the conversations between the sides have gotten rough?"

If Craig's right, and he frequently is about these kinds of things, the Pujols negotiations are about to get all Derek Jeter uncomfortable up in here.  That's never a good thing.  Well, unless you're a blogger, and then it's the greatest thing in the world.

The Hardest Part is Knowing When to Let Go

Albert Pujols is likely the greatest baseball player many of us will ever have the pleasure of watching in our lifetime. I know that is not the most controversial statement I have ever made on this site (Minnesota Twins, anyone?). However, as we move closer to the Pujols designated end of negotiations, it has become clear that the hometown discount given in his previous 7 year, 100 million dollar contract will not be in effect this time around. Numbers as high as 300 million for the next ten seasons have been discussed by reputable writers at mainstream sites. In light of these numbers, it would seem that the time has come for St. Louis to make the difficult but necessary move and allow Albert to find another home after the 2011 season.

The St Louis Cardinals, despite their prominent stature within the game, have never been one of the high end teams in terms of payroll. The Cardinals' did not break the 100 million dollar barrier until 2011 and had the 13th highest payroll in baseball in the 2009-2010 per both Cot's Baseball Contracts and CBSSports.com. They are on the hook for 17 million per season for Matt Holliday until the beginning of the second term of the Palin administration (keep your fingers crossed on that one kids, for the comedy value if nothing else). Adam Wainwright has two cost effective team options for 2012 and 2013 for a combined 21 million but will also be in line for a significant increase when the next contract gets signed. I think it is safe to say that as a 31 year old elite starting pitcher the absolute lowest yearly figure for Wainwright would work out to somewhere in the 16 to 18 million dollar range. I am assuming a minimum yearly figure of 25 million a year when all is said and done for Pujols. Conservatively, this would leave the Cardinals committing 58 million dollars a year for only three players through 2016 at the minimum. This troika would consume almost 50 percent of the team's working budget making the fielding of a competitive team almost impossible.

The second issue with this contract lies with the expected performance of Albert Pujols' over the assumed life of the contract. In a previous blog post, "Pujols Negotiation not Going Well", Chip referenced an article by Dave Cameron that estimated Pujols WAR over a ten year contract to be 42.5. Cameron arrived at this number by estimating Pujols' WAR for this season and applying a standard 1/2 win regression for each year of the contract. He also estimates the total value of these wins at 267.5 Million dollars, a figure that would seem to justify the numbers sought by Pujols. However, it is exceedingly rare, for a player to receive a contract that exactly mirrors their value to their team as too many economic and perceptual variables exist to prevent this from happening. For example, Joey Votto, a player with an almost identical WAR in 2010, just received a contract with a yearly value of 12.6 million dollars. This contract pays him almost 17 million dollars a year less than his value to the team in 2010-11. Evan Longoria would be able to buy Wyoming with the difference between his actual contract and his value to the Tampa Bay Rays since 2008.

Additionally, we as baseball fans, have become smarter over time. We know that a player's prime years fall between 25-30 years old. Pujols would begin his 10 year deal at the age of 32. This is assuming that his birth certificate did not receive the Danny Almonte treatment some time before his arrival in 2001. There is no evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, to indicate any duplicity in Pujols' stated age but one does have to bring up concerns like these when dealing with Latin American players. Stricter rules against amphetamines and other PED's have restored the usual career arc for even elite baseball players. The likelihood of a 39 year old slugger like Barry Bonds (Pujols' best career comp and his only real competition for the title of greatest player of our lifetime) hitting 45 homers and posting 10 WAR again is almost nonexistent. It does not behoove the Cardinals to make the same mistake the Yankees' did with the most recent A-Rod contract. This is especially true as the Cardinals don't have the 100 million dollar buffer in payroll that the Yankees possess on a yearly basis.

Albert Pujols is the face of the Cardinals' franchise and a potential all time great. However, that does not mean that you sign him to a 10 year, 250 million dollar contract when that contract would cripple your team economcially and serve only to purchase the declining years of that player. If you make a mistake of that magnitude with a payroll like the Cardinals, you can all but end your team's ability to contend for several seasons.

P.S., For the record, I hate Titanic more than almost anyone. However, the picture fits the theme of knowing when to let go and has the awesome secondary benefit of allowing me to post a Titanic reference on a blog of Chip's creation.

Pujols Negotiations Not Going Well

UPDATE (2/5/2011 at 6:55 p.m.):  If you want to see how much Cardinals fans are freaking out about the possibility of life without Pujols, check this link out.  Compliments of D.J. Short of Hardball Talk.

Original Post (2/5/2011 at 5:49 p.m.):  With less than two weeks remaining until the end of the Pujols contract extension season, one would hope the two parties are making strides toward coming to terms on a contract extension.  According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, "discussions are not going well."

"Contract talks are fluid, and a breakthrough toward a record extension might be only one phone call away. But the Cardinals are balking at Pujols’ price, sources say, increasing the possibility that Pujols will become a free agent at the end of the 2011 season...Sources paint an increasingly pessimistic view of the negotiations...While the Cardinals are making a sincere attempt to complete a deal, they are not in as strong a financial position as other clubs in larger markets. The team is frustrated that Pujols’ aggressive negotiating stance does not match his public declarations of loyalty. Pujols, however, has been paid below market value for virtually his entire career."

While I understand that these deals can come together rather quickly and unexpectedly, I don't have high hopes for that happening here.  The last report I saw (via Jon Heyman from SI) was that the two sides were as much as three years and $70-$100M apart.  With both sides agreeing to keep contract talks confidential, there's no word as to whether they've gotten any closer over the last couple of weeks.  Based on Rosenthal's report, I'm going to guess they haven't.

I'm a little taken aback by the Cardinals frustration with Pujols's "aggressive" negotiating stance.  While I can understand why they might have hoped he was a little less rigid in his demands, his stance is anything but disloyal.  As a baseball player that's been grossly underpaid for the entirety of his career, Pujols is only trying to be paid fair market value for his production.  The Cardinals, on the other hand, seem to have this notion that Pujols should be grateful and accept whatever contract they offer him.  I'm sorry, but loyalty in this situation doesn't just lie with the player, it lies with the team as well.  While Pujols is likely reduce his price to fit within the team's economic parameters, the Cardinals need to realize Pujols is a special situation, and typical negotiating tactics don't apply.  We're talking about one of the greatest players in baseball history, not an All-Star first baseman.  Offering him Mark Teixeira or Ryan Howard money is, quite frankly, insulting to a player of Pujols's caliber. 

So how much will Pujols be worth over the next ten seasons?  Dave Cameron of Fangraphs did an excellent piece a few weeks ago, where he determined just that.  According to Cameron:

"Let’s start with the working assumption that wins are currently being priced at about $5 million apiece this winter. For his career, Pujols has averaged +7.1 WAR per 600 PA...Let’s project him as a +7 win player for 2011, just to play it safe. You could argue for a bit higher number, but this will at least give us a baseline...If we use the standard half-win-decrease-per-year aging curve, our ten year projection for Pujols would have him producing +47.5 wins between now and 2020. But he’s already under contract for 2011, so we should remove that from the equation, and just focus on 2012 and beyond. A deal that took him through 2021 would produce an expected +42.5 WAR, and if we assume a steady rate of 5% salary inflation, the value of those wins would be $267 million."

That's right folks.  Cameron projects him at $267M for the next ten years.  I can't say I disagree with him either, although I had his value a little bit higher because I used a slightly higher performance baseline.  Either way, it's pretty clear that Pujols's demands are pretty reasonable.  Just for fun, I did an accumulative WAR graph (compliments of Fangraphs) between Pujols, Gonzalez, Howard, and Teixeira.*

*  I couldn't fit Fielder on the graph, but through five-plus seasons, he's accumulated 20.3 fWAR.  This would put him 26.7 fWAR behind Pujols at the same age.

When compare him to supposedly similar comps (i.e. Teixeira, Gonzalez, Howard, Fielder), it becomes even more obvious that Pujols is in a class of his own.   To me, it's pretty clear.  Pujols is absolutely deserving of the contract he's seeking from the Cardinals.  If the Cardinals want to retain him, they're going to have to show him the money.

Where Will Pujols Land?

For those of you keeping track, there are only 24 negotiating days left in the Albert Pujols contract extension season.  If, for some reason, the two sides can't come to agreement by the official start of Spring Training (February 26th), negotiations will be suspended until after the 2011 season.  Just for fun, I thought it would be interesting to go through the league, and take a team-by-team look at Pujols's potential destinations should he become a free agent.  I have broken up the league into nine categories based on the likelihood he signs with each team. 

Are You Serious?  We Don't Have the Money to Sign Pujols!

Pittsburgh Pirates - Lyle Overbay has been tasked with holding down the fort at first base for the Pirates in 2011.  Once the season ends, he'll become a free agent.  With a potential opening at first base, could the Pirates make a run at Pujols?  Yeah, not so much.  The Pirates 2011 payroll should cap out at around $40M, and there's no reason to expect it to be significantly higher in 2012.  If the Pirates were to sign Pujols at $27.5M per season, they'd have to fill out the remainder of their roster with players making the league minimum just to keep their payroll where it is now.  Having a marquis player is nice, but not when it comes at the expense of the rest of your squad.  Plus, there's the small issue of the Pirates nineteen seasons of futility.  (Yes, I'm predicting another losing season in 2011.  Shocking, I know.)   Maybe it's just me, but I don't see him agreeing to spend the remainder of his prime competing for last place in the NL Central. 

Oakland Athletics - While the Athletics have been far more aggressive this offseason than in the recent past, their 2011 payroll will only end up around the $65-70M level.  While I'm sure Billy Beane would be happy to have Pujols on his team, he knows that it doesn't make sense to drop $27.5M on an 8 WAR true talent player when he can get 10 wins worth of talent from guys like Josh Willingham, Mark Ellis, David DeJesus, and Kurt Suzuki (using 2010 stats and salaries) for the same price.  Furthermore, they already have a solid first baseman in Daric Barton who is a "walk machine," plays Fielding Bible Award quality defense, and under team control through 2014.  What more could Beane ask for? 

Florida Marlins - The Marlins are actually spending money these days with Hanley Ramirez, Javier Vazquez, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and John Buck all due salaries exceeding $5M next season.  Their payroll will likely end up around $55M this year, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them top $70M in 2012 to coincide with the opening of their long awaited new ball park.  Even with the "splurge" in spending, it's not practical for the Marlins to sign Pujols.  In order to fit Pujols onto their payroll they would probably have to find trading partners for Ramirez and Johnson (at the very least).  Those moves make the team worse, not better.  Additionally, with Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison in the fold, they have first base covered for the next 5-6 years.

Arizona Diamondbacks - It might not be fair to lump the Diamondbacks in with this group, but I'm going to anyway.  Armed with a new GM and new philosophy, they appear poised for another rebuilding process.  With former Yankee post-prospect Juan Miranda poised to start at first for Arizona, it's likely they'll be looking be trolling the free agent market next season in search of a proper bat to cover the right corner spot.  Still, despite the roster hole, Pujols doesn't fit the organization's needs at the moment.  They'll likely look for a cheaper short-term option.

San Diego Padres - This one is easy.  The Padres just traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox because he was reportedly looking for Mark Teixeira money (7/$180M).  Pujols is going to get a whole lot more than Mark Teixeira money.  The Padres will definitely pass on Pujols.

Cleveland Indians - The Indians are up to their ears in the rebuilding process.  While they only have $13M (Hafner) in guaranteed money and $15.5M in contract options (Sizemore and Carmona) on the books for the 2012 season, the Indians are unlikely to be buyers (in any sense of the word) next winter.  At this point, the Indians are more likely to be more concerned with retaining the talent they already have (Choo, Sizemore, and Masterson) than acquiring new free agent talent.

Milwaukee Brewers - While their payroll is a little high to be on this list, I'm putting them here anyway.  Why?  Because it's pretty clear they won't pony up and give Prince Fielder the contract he's seeking (Mark Teixeira money).  If they won't meet his demands, then it's doubly unlikely they'll consider meeting Pujols's demands.

Tampa Bay Rays - After a few seasons with an elevated payroll, the Rays will be taking a step back for the next couple of season.  Well, in terms of payroll anyway.  Their farm system is so stacked with high end talent, they should have no problem being competitive in the AL East.  With the payroll dropping to around $50M, I don't see the Rays agreeing to waste (yes, waste) half of their financial resources on just one player.  The Rays have built a tremendously successful, low revenue organization through player development, shrewd trades, and targeted free agent signings.  There's no chance they turn their back on that now.

Also, between 2008-2014 they're paying Evan Longoria $25M (with two additional options totaling $22.5M in salary for 2015 and 2016).  Based on his age and performance over his first three seasons, it's not out of the question to think that he could produce as many as many as 45-50 wins above the replacement level during that period.  Yes, this is an extreme example, but I'll take 50 wins at $25M (Longoria) over 10 wins at $27.5M (Pujols) any day.  It's all about efficiency.


We'd Love to Sign Him, but that Damn B!&$# Screwed Me

Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers are one of baseball's most popular franchises.  They have an identifiable brand, a jewel of a ballpark, and play in the second largest TV market in America.  Life should be good.  With marquee power hitting first baseman, Albert Pujols, possibly entering the free agent market after the season, it'd seem logical to assume the Dodgers would be one of the first teams in line to acquire his services.  Right?  Yeah, not so much.

The Dodgers, to put it kindly, are a complete disaster.  I'm not going to go into the sordid details because quite frankly, it's been written about enough.  To put it simply, their ownership situation is a clusterf@ck, and their GM is so incompetent, he thinks it's a smart idea to go on a pitching spending spree while leaving a gaping hole in left.  Still, that's besides the point.  While the Dodgers only have $33.2M in guaranteed money on the books for next season, they have ten players eligible for arbitration next season and hold on player option for 2012.  Between those items and a couple of poorly thought out signings by Ned Colletti (pretty safe bet, don't you think?) that should bring their payroll pretty close to the $100M mark they've been hovering around for the last few seasons.  Until the ownership and cash flow situations get sorted out, the Dodgers won't be in a position to make a serious run at Pujols--or any other major free agent for that matter.  In all likelihood, they'll stick with the light hitting James Loney (and his sub-.340 wOBA) for the time being. 


We'd Love to Sign Him, but the Federal Government is Suing Us for $1B in Claw Backs.  Damn You Bernie Madoff!

New York Mets - Do you remember when I said the Dodgers were a disaster?  I probably should have added the caveat, "but they're not as bad as the Mets."   Mets primary owner Fred Wilpon and his business partner Saul Katz were major investors with Madoff,  When the Madoff scandal finally broke, Wilpon and Katz reportedly lost millions.  While they tried to assure everyone that everything was fine, few believed them.  Everyone wondered how their losses in net worth would affect the franchise in both the short and long-term.

Now, almost three years later, we're finally starting to find out exactly how much the scandal is affecting both the franchise and owner Fred Wilpon.  With the federal government reportedly trying to recover as much as $1B "claw back" money, the Wilpons have decided to sell a 20-25% stake in the franchise in hopes of building some additional capital should the government win their case.  As I've mentioned previously, most investment groups aren't interested in purchasing only a quarter of a sports franchise.  Instead, they're interested in obtaining controlling interest.  As a result, by putting up a stake of the franchise, they've put themselves at risk of losing everything, in terms of the Mets.

Until the Madoff, claw back, and ownership situations clear up, the Mets aren't likely to be major players when it comes to major free agents.  Luckily for the Mets, they have a good option in Ike Davis.  Davis is about to turn 24, hits for power, draws walks, and plays great defense.  Plus, he's under control for the next six seasons.


We're Going the Prospect Route


Atlanta Braves - The Braves consider prospect Freddie Freeman to be the long term solution at first base.  At only 21 years old, he'll be given every opportunity to hold down the job. 

Seattle Mariners - After obtaining Justin Smoak in the Cliff Lee trade, the Mariners appear poised to start the 2011 season with him at first base.  If the scouting reports are accurate, Smoak has the potential to be a legitimate switch hitting power threat.  

Houston Astros - Prospect Brett Wallace, 24, is projected to be the starting first baseman for the Astros in 2011.  While Wallace will be given every chance to win the job, he'll likely be on a relatively short leash.    Wallace is with fourth organization in three seasons.   If he can't hold down the job, the Astros could end up being in the market for new first baseman in 2012.   Considering the state of the Astros rebuilding process, I'd say it's pretty unlikely they end up landing Pujols.


Thanks, but We Already Have a First Baseman

Chicago White Sox - If the White Sox had passed on either Konerko or Dunn (or both), they'd probably be big time players for Pujols.  Instead, they'll be sitting on the sidelines next year.

Detroit Tigers - Pujols is great, but it's tough to complain when you have a player like Miguel Cabrera who is capable of putting up .300/.400/.575 for you every season.

Minnesota Twins - As long as Morneau fully recovers from the concussion he suffered in mid-July, the Twins have their man.  While we shouldn't expect another season in which he accumulates 5 WAR by the All-Star break, there's no reason to believe he won't end up being a consistent 3.5-5.0 win player for the next couple of years.

Kansas City Royals - They just re-upped Billy Butler, and they have super prospect Eric Hosmer waiting in the wings.  The Royals are set at first base for the next 6-8 seasons.  Plus, it's not like the Royals would have been serious players for Pujols anyway.  They neither have the revenue stream, nor the track record of success to draw Pujols to western Missouri.

Philadelphia Phillies - It's too bad the Phillies decided to sign Howard to that terrible five year $125M extension last April (starts in 2012).  If they hadn't, they probably would've been one of the favorites (if not the favorite) to land Pujols next offseason.  Instead, they're stuck with a player with significantly less talent that will be making a comparable salary.

Cincinnati Reds - The Reds just signed reigning NL MVP Joey Votto to a three year $38M extension.  They're set for a little while.  

Colorado Rockies - The Rockies owe $15.9M to Todd Helton through 2013 (plus $13.1M in deferred payments between 2014-2023).  As a near replacement level player, he's probably unmovable at this point--even with his reduced salary (due to the restructured contract extension he agreed to last March), .  Without a DH slot with which to move him, the Rockies will likely stick with Helton for as long as they can.

San Francisco Giants - Back in December, the Giants signed Aubrey Huff to a two year contact worth $22M.  As a result of that signing, the Giants unofficially pulled themselves out of the running to sign Albert Pujols (or Prince Fielder).  While it's possible they could find a trade partner willing to accept Huff, the Giants would likely be responsible for eating the bulk (if not all) of Huff's remaining salary.  Considering the amount of money they'd be committing to Pujols (or even Fielder) by signing him, that kind of trade arrangement would become somewhat cost prohibitive for the Giants. 


We're Probably Not Interested, but You Never Know

Boston Red Sox - The only way the Red Sox get involved is if one of two things happen:  (1)  Adrian Gonzalez shows that he's not the same player as he was prior to having major shoulder surgery, or (2) the two sides can't come to terms on a deal and Gonzalez becomes a free agent.  While the former is possible, it's far more likely that he fully recovers.  As for the former, I don't think the Red Sox would've finalized the trade for A-Gon unless they had a pretty firm framework in place.  Furthermore, I'm of the school of thought that the two sides have already agreed to terms on an extension.  They're just waiting until after Opening Day to make it official.  In doing so, they'll hopefully be able to avoid getting with the competitive balance tax.

New York Yankees - Any time a major free agent hits the market, you can never count the Yankees out until said player agrees to terms with another club.  Still, I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the Yankees and Pujols come to an agreement.  With Teixeira manning first base at $22.5M per season through 2015, A-Rod (and his creeky hip) eventually needing to be moved to DH, where do you play him?  Left field?  I suppose, but Pujols hasn't played there since 2003.  Plus, left field at Yankee Stadium is like right field at Fenway.  It's cavernous.  They're better off having a second CF (Gardner) patrolling LF than a power hitting corner infielder.  Oh, and please don't even try to suggest the idea of playing Pujols at 1B, A-Rod at DH, and Teixeira at 3B.  That might be one of the most insane ideas I've ever heard. 

Washington Nationals - While the Nationals technically already have a first baseman signed for 2012 (Adam LaRoche), I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move for Pujols, if he becomes available.  The Nationals were aggressive this past winter in not only signing Jayson Werth, but also making aggressive trade offers to the Royals and Rays for Zach Greinke and Matt Garza.  As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see that bold, aggressive mentality carry over into the next offseason.  Before the Nationals signed Pujols (a major hypothetical), they'd have to find a way to move LaRoche, and his $8M guaranteed salary.  While the Nationals will certainly find some interested parties (perhaps the Rangers, Astros, Blue Jays, or Brewers), it's possible they may have to eat a portion of the remaining contract in order to facilitate a deal. 


Theoretically They're Contenders, but Unlikely Victors

Baltimore Orioles - After signing Derrek Lee to a one year $8M contract last month, the Orioles put themselves in a great position to sign a big power hitting first baseman next offseason.  Unfortunately for the Orioles, they're usually used as pawns in these types of situations.  While they've shown they're willing to open the coffers for the right player (see Mark Teixeira), I don't see them meeting Pujols's asking price.  Considering the Orioles futility over the past thirteen seasons, it's likely they'll have to overbid in order to have a serious chance at winning the Pujols sweepstakes.  Personally, I see them making a very strong run for Prince Fielder (whose demands are closer to the Orioles comfort zone) in the next Hot Stove season.

Toronto Blue Jays - There's only one reason I put the Blue Jays in this category:  they have only $17M on the books for 2012.  For a team whose payroll has hovered around $70-80M for the better part of the five years, that number is a bit startling at first glance.  Could they make a run at Pujols?  Possibly, but it's doubtful they actually land the slugging first baseman.  For a franchise that follows the efficiency model popularized by the A's and Rays, the idea that the Blue Jays would give out a contract with a $27.5M average annual salary seems pretty implausible. 

Texas Rangers - With a new ownership group in place, the Rangers seem poised to make another aggressive, but targeted, run in free agency next offseason.  While they have a need for a slugging first baseman, Pujols's contract demands are likely outside of the range ownership considers to be reasonable.  Pujols is reported to be looking for A-Rod money.  The last time the Rangers committed that kind of money to a player (A-Rod's original ten year $252M contract), it literally crippled the club financially.  I don't see the Rangers making that mistake again.  Like the Orioles, Prince Fielder is probably a much more logical target.


Realistic Contenders

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - The Angels have just completed an offseason that could be best described as an atrocity.  They not only failed to meet any of their objectives via free agency, but also made one of the worst trades in baseball history when the acquired and absorbed $81M of the $86M remaining on Vernon Wells's contract..  If anyone needs a reversal of Hot Stove karma, it's the Angels.  While the Angels already have a first baseman in Kendry Morales, signing Pujols would be a major upgrade both offensively and defensively.  If they're successful in their quest, it's likely the Angels would shift Morales from 1B to DH. 

The question with the Angels is not if they can afford to sign Pujols--it's whether or not they'll pony up the money to make it happen.  Based on recent statements by their owner, Arte Moreno, I'm not convinced they will.  He's made it very clear that he's not comfortable with giving out contracts that approach, meet, or exceed the $183M figure he paid to purchase the Angels in 2003.  The contract Pujols is looking for will almost certainly exceed that figure.

Chicago Cubs - Imagine this...Albert Pujols in a Chicago Cubs uniform.*   It's possible.  With Carlos Pena only signed for one year, and the Cubs only having $66M in salary commitments (plus two players with club options and eight players eligible for arbitration) for 2012, the Cubs are in a decent position to make a run at stealing Pujols from their chief rival.  With new ownership in place, you can bet the Cubs will try to make a big splash via free agency before too long.  This is doubly true if they suffer through another disappointing season in 2011. 

All that said, it's pretty unlikely he ends up signing with the Cubs, if only because the Cardinals will do everything in their power to keep that from happening.  Furthermore, the Cubs, even with Pujols in their lineup, are still a couple of years away from being serious championship contenders.  Still, we can't discount this as a viable scenario.

* Before you ask...Yes, my intention with that statement was to get every Cardinals fan reading this article to throw up in their mouths.

The Victor

St. Louis Cardinals - Yes, I know.  This is a painfully obvious choice.  It just makes too much sense.  Pujols loves playing for the Cardinals, and the Cardinals can't afford to lose Pujols.  In essence, they need each other.  At some point, whether it's later this month or next offseason, I predict the two sides will come to an agreement on an eight year contract worth around $200-225M.

So there you have it.  If you have any questions, comments, or alternative scenarios you'd like to share, please leave them in the comments section.  I'd love to hear them.

This is No Time to Panic

This is no time for Cardinals fans to panic, but it's certainly not looking good.  According to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated, the Cardinals and Pujols are miles apart in terms of their contract expectations. 

While neither side is talking publicly, early word is that Pujols has used A-Rod's contract, the richest in baseball and one that guarantees him least $275 million over 10 years (and could be worth as much as $305 million if he hits all his landmark home-run numbers), as the only comp. That comes as no surprise as Pujols is widely considered the best player in the game.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are said to have initially suggested a contract that would guarantee Pujols at least a bit less than $200 million. The exact particulars of their offer or offers aren't known, but there is a belief around the game that the Cardinals are hoping to keep the deal to seven years or less. In an interview with SI.com at the winter meetings, Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt strongly suggested he had no intention of making a 10-year offer and opined that the Yankees had to "regret'' such a deal.

Three years and roughly $100M is a huge difference, and it's one that might be too difficult for the two parties to overcome.  Pujols and his agent Dan Lozano reiterated the other day that they have no intention of negotiating once Spring Training starts on February 19th.  This gives the Cardinals exactly 34 days to get a deal done, or risk losing their franchise player to free agency.

I understand both parties in this situation.  On one hand, Pujols is the best player in the game.  Through ten seasons, he's done things that few, if any, players have done in their career.  His track record speaks for itself.  Based on Dave Cameron's projections, Pujols looks to be worth 42.5 fWAR between 2012-2020, which would make him worth $267M during that time if we assume a steady 5% salary inflation rate.  If his projections are correct (and I believe they are), Pujols will definitely be worthy of an A-Rod type contract.  For a player of Pujols' caliber, the Cardinals should be willing to make considerable salary concessions in order to keep him in the fold. 

On the other hand, ten years is a very long time.  An awful lot can happen during that time, especially when the player in question is on the wrong side of 30.  For instance, Pujols could unexpectedly decline at a rapid rate.  Or he could end up with a catastrophic injury that permanently affects his performance.  There's a lot of risk involved in signing a player to a contract of that magnitude.  When the Yankees signed A-Rod to his most recent deal after the 2007 season, most felt A-Rod was a freak of nature.  At 33, he was showing no signs of decline.  Then, the steroid bombshell it.  Then, he suffered a serious injury to his hip, which has limited him defensively at third base.  Three years later, A-Rod is a much different player, and the Yankees reportedly regret making such a large commitment to the controversial third baseman.  Understandably, Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt has similar concerns, and rightly so. 

While it looks pretty grim for the Cardinals right now, I have to imagine something will be worked out.  It might not get done before Spring Training starts, but something will be worked out during the 2011-2012 offseason at the latest.  Pujols is hugely important to the organization, and I don't see the Cardinals allowing him to walk away.  One thing is for sure, though.  If the two sides are going to come to an agreement, both parties will need to make some concessions along the way. 

Over the next week or so, I'm going to put together an article detailing Pujols' potential destinations if he's allowed to hit the free agent market after the season.  Stay tuned!

An Update on the Pujols Negotiations

The annual Major League Baseball owners' meetings are being held in Phoenix this week.  Can you feel the excitement?  Yeah, you're not alone.  The Owners' meetings are essentially the anti-Winter Meetings.  All of that Hot Stove-y goodness that we experienced last month?  That well, for the most part, has run dry.  This week, it's just the owners.  Now that Big Stein has passed, a more boring group they could not be.  Get this...they are actually conducting...(wait for it)...business.  BORING! 

Still, someone has to cover the meetings.  Over at Fox Sports, Jon Paul Morosi drew the short straw.  Hey, it could be worse.  The meetings could be in cold, snowy Minneapolis instead of warm, sunny Arizona.  Plus, when you cover these types of events, there's a good chance you'll stumble upon a hot scoop or two.  Luckily for us, that's precisely what happened. 

After bumping into Cardinals CEO Bill Dewitt in the hotel lobby, Morosi had a chance to talk shop about the Pujols negotiations for a few moments.  

“We’ve got time between now and then to get things done,” DeWitt said. “I’m hopeful. But these are big deals, and we’ll make every effort to get it accomplished.

“Spring training is a long period of time — six weeks. Whether it’s reporting date, or a week after, I don’t view it as, ‘If it’s not done by this day, then . . .’ I don’t see a specific day.”

(snip)

“We’re not that far along yet, so I wouldn’t think so,” DeWitt said, of what would be a public-relations bonanza. “I never rule anything out, but we’re not targeting that time frame. We’re looking more toward spring training. A deal of this magnitude will take some time.”

Well, that settles it.  Dewitt is an expert in saying a lot without saying anything at all.  If this baseball thing doesn't work out for him, he should have no problem having long and prosperous career in politics. 

Dewitt's comment strike me as being a bit odd.  Earlier this offseason, Pujols indicated that he will not participate in contract negotiations once he reports to Spring Training on February 19th.  Based on Dewitt's nonchalant attitude towards Pujols' self imposed negotiation deadline, I have to imagine that he either knows Pujols is willing to negotiate up to Opening Day, or just doesn't care.  Considering how important Pujols is to the Cardinals franchise, I highly doubt it's the latter.  That only leads the former. 

The two sides engaged extensive discussions last winter before talks broke off in February prior to Pujols's self-imposed Spring Training deadline.  In December during the Winter Meetings, the negotiations reignited, and have ramped up considerably in recent weeks.  At this point in the process, I have to imagine both parties have exchanged contract figures at least once.  Otherwise, the negotiations would be a colossal waste of time.  Still, it's tough to know for sure with both parties keeping the negotiations so close to the vest.   Pujols has yet to take a pre-contract physical for insurance purposes, which indicates that a deal is not imminent. 

Pujols, a ten time All-Star, is eligible to become a free agent after the 2011 season.  He's expected to be looking for a seven to ten year contract with an average annual salary in the $25-30M range.  

Pujols Negotiations Re-Ignited

Joe Strauss of St. Louis Today reports that the Cardinals and Albert Pujols have re-opened contract extension negotiations.  According to several anonymous sources close to the negotiation, they've taken on a "positive" tone.  Those sources have asked to remain anonymous due to both the sensitivity surrounding the negotiations, and a gentleman's agreement between Pujols's agent, Dan Lozano, and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak to "keep talks confidential."

Pujols has indicated that he will not negotiate a deal once he reports to Spring Training in Jupiter, FL next month.  This adds a certain degree of urgency on the part of the Cardinals to get this deal done as quickly as possible.  With only five weeks in which to agree in principle, there's very little margin for error. While the two sides met twice last month during the Winter Meetings in Orlando, they did not exchange proposals according to sources.  At the moment, it's unclear how much progress has been made, but it's believed to be "well beyond any framework discussed during last February's aborted discussions." 

Pujols, 30, is reportedly looking for a seven year contract with an annual average salary of $25-30M.  While that sounds like a lot of money (and it is), when you compare it to the salary of players like Mark Teixeira (who is not quite as talented and making $22.5M per season), it doesn't seem quite so ridiculous.  It's all relative.

The Cardinals are in a similar position with Pujols as the Giants were with Bonds, or the Orioles were with Ripken.  He is the face of their franchise.  For a player of his caliber (in his prime) they almost have to give in to his demands.  In ten seasons, Pujols has put up a .331/.426/.624 (.434 wOBA) triple slash line with 408 home runs, 1230 RBI, and 1186 runs scored.  He's played Fielding Bible Award quality defense at first base saving 62.4 runs per UZR (91 runs per DRS's calculation).  To date, he's provided 80.6 fWAR throughout his career.  Currently he's 43rd all-time in fWAR, and he still has another 10 years of play left in him, barring injuries.  To understand just how dominant he's been, he's averaging 8 WAR per season, which means he theoretically has produced enough value for ten MVP quality seasons.  That's nothing short of amazing.  This really should be a no-brainer for the Cardinals. 

NL MVP Award

Tomorrow, the National League MVP Award will be announced.  When it is, one of two first basemen will likely be selected as the 2010 recipient:  Albert Pujols or Joey Votto.   Both players had incredibly similar years.   Both are more than deserving.  If I had an official vote, I know that I'd have a very difficult time deciding over who would be my choice with the award.  The voters of season-end awards hold a great responsibility, as these awards are used as supporting "proof" in Hall of Fame cases.  Perception of a particular player's performance in a given season (or seasons) can have a long lasting effect on our view of his career.  Sometimes it's positive, but others it's negative.   

Pujols is a modern day Joe DiMaggio.  He’s a three time MVP (and three second place finishes) who hits for average and power, gets on base, runs the bases well, and plays excellent defense at this position.  A model of consistency, Pujols has hit at least .300/.400/.500 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI ten consecutive seasons.  Pujols’s plate discipline is unheard of in our current era.  Where high strikeout totals , are the norm, Pujols controls the strike zone better than any hitter of the past 25 years not named Barry Bonds.  In every season since 2002, he’s accumulated more walks than strike outs.   While I don’t want to call his production routine, for him it almost was routine.  The man is a machine.   To put it simply, if Pujols were to retire today, he’d be a lock for the Hall of Fame.

In 2010, Pujols put together yet another solid season.  He put up a .420 wOBA (his tenth consecutive season above .400) and produced a 55.4 wRAA (second in the NL) while exhibiting his patented plate discipline and excellent defense at first base.   His production was so valuable, he put up 7.2 WAR, which was good for second in the NL and third in baseball.  Despite his tremendous 2010 achievements, he falls just short of MVP in my eyes.

My vote for the NL MVP Award (if I had one) would go to Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto.  Votto had an outstanding season, outpacing Pujols in several key categories:  wOBA (.439 to .420), wRAA (61.3 to 55.4), OBP (.424 to .414), SLG (.600 to .596), wRC+ 177 to 169, UZR (1.6 to 1.5), and WAR (7.3 to 7.2).  Yes, I know.  Votto barely beat out Pujols in these categories, but the margin of victory isn't important.  He was slightly better, and that's what matters.

Even if we came to a consensus and called it a virtual statistical tie, I would still give my vote to Votto.  Why?  While Votto had a talented cast supporting him, it wasn't anywhere near the cast Pujols had.  Pujols was armed with a companion MVP quality candidate (Holliday), two top tier starting pitchers (Carpenter and Wainwright), and a Rookie of the Year candidate (Garcia).  The Cardinals should've coasted into the postseason--easily.  Instead, they wilted down the stretch.  While it's unfair to punish Pujols who carried the Cardinals in September, Votto's performance down the stretch is what set him apart.  He was just a little bit more valuable.  He had to be.  The Reds starting pitching rotation wasn't exactly playoff caliber.   Made up #3 and #4 quality starters of the Scott Baker/Ted Lilly variety, the Reds pitching staff finished eighth in ERA, eleventh in strikeouts, and twelfth in home runs allowed.  (Those pitchers are nice to have, but not when they are your front of the rotation starters.)  That's not exactly a recipe for success.  To win, the Reds needed to outscore their opponents, meaning Votto had to be on top of his game at the most crucial point in the season.  On top of his game, he was.  He hit .308/.429/.571 with five home runs, nine doubles, and 16 RBI.  By season's end, Votto led his team to the postseason for the first time since 1995, finishing five games ahead of Pujols's Cardinals.  

So there you have it.  I've chosen Joey Votto for the 2010 NL MVP by the narrowest of margins.  Like I said before, both players are more than deserving of the honor.  If the BBWAA announced tomorrow that Pujols had won his fourth MVP, I would neither be surprised nor disappointed.  That said, it'd be shame.  Votto put together what's likely to be his career season, and he deserves to be rewarded for it.  

Domo Arigoto, Mr. Joe Votto

 
I don't care what anyone says.  Joey Votto can, should, and will win the National League MVP.  Albert Pujols had an excellent season, but it was a little bit of a down year for him--at least in comparison to 2008 and 2009.  I know, I know.  Pujols put up a .420 wOBA, created 55.4 weighted runs above average (wRAA), and was worth 7.3 wins above replacement.  In a normal season, he'd be a shoe-in for MVP.  Unfortunately, for him, 2010 wasn't a normal season.  Joey Votto was just a little better.  He put up a .439 wOBA, created 61.3 wRAA, and was worth 7.4 wins above replacement.  When you consider the fact Votto led his team to the playoffs for the first time since 1995, it actually makes the choice simple.  Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but it's my blog.  I'm entitled to do so if I please.

This brings me to the reason I wanted to write about Votto.  As Craig Calcaterra of NBC's Hardball Talk blogged earlier today, the Reds are interested in signing their power hitting first baseman to a four year deal, thus allowing the team to avoid arbitration.  This shouldn't be a shocker.  Power hitting first basemen, while uncommon, are highly coveted.  Power hitting first baseman who can consistently hit .400-plus wOBA with above average defense, on the other hand, is comparable to striking oil in your backyard.  Votto is the total package.  Going into this age-27 season (a baseball player's most common prime season), he appears to have several productive years ahead of him, barring injuries.  If the Reds were to go year-to-year with Votto, it would likely cost the Reds a fortune by his third season of arbitration eligibility; thereby making it cost-ineffective for the Reds.

So why not sign him to a long term deal now?  Well, for the Reds, it's a no brainer.  Cincinnati is the smallest market in baseball, and the Reds are the epitome of a small market club.  To be successful, they need to focus on drafting well, building a productive farm system, making smart trades, and finding value on the free agent market.  When they sign a player to a big contract, they really need to make it count.  If they don't, it could hamper the franchise for years to come.  Barring some major unexpected population shift, they'll never be able to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mets for big time free agents.

Signing Votto prior to the 2011 season is ideal for the Reds because it allows them to buy out all three of his arbitration years, thus creating a significantly lower base salary from which to start from.  Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, Votto's 2010 salary was $550,000.  His 2011 salary after arbitration will likely jump to somewhere between $6.5M and $7M.  Based on recent history for long term contracts that buy out all three years of salary arbitration, the Reds would likely be able to negotiate Votto's salary down to $4-5M for 2010 with larger salary escalations in 2011, 2012, and 2013.  By the end of the process, the team could end up signing Votto to an incredibly team friendly 4 year $36M contract with a fifth year option worth around $15M.   Between, 2008 and 2010, Votto has been worth 16.0 wins above replacement, and been produced approximately $70.7M based on Fangraph's assessment that a single win is worth approximately $4M on the free agent market.  That's a considerable amount of value.  Even if we were to see a regression of 0.5 WAR over each of the next four seasons (which is highly unlikely by the way), the Reds would easily recoup enough value (and then some) in this theoretical deal.  The Reds could probably go up to 4 years and $80M (adjusting for the inflation of a win on the free agent market over time) before breaking even.

So why should Votto wait to sign?  Well, for one, his stock has never been higher.  It seems likely he's going to win the MVP in his age-26 season, and he has at least three or four prime seasons ahead of him.  Plus, if he was to wait until after the 2011 season to sign his long term deal, he'd be able to use the contracts of Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez as benchmarks for his deal.  Of course, he won't be using those deals to get comparable deals because the two situations will be different.  The above three players, assuming they make it to free agency, will be offering their services on the open market.  Votto, on the other hand, is tied to one team until after 2013.  Votto will (and should) use those deals to squeeze every drop of additional money out of the Reds.  This would likely move his deal to somewhere closer to 4 years and $60M.  Over the life of that deal the Reds will still recoup more than enough value from Votto, but it won't be the slam dunk described in the first scenario.  If he can't, it would behoove him to go year-to-year, and sign his first big money deal as a first time free agent.

This offseason is a crucial time for Walt Jocketty and his front office staff.  He needs to find a way to sign his franchise player to a long term deal, while building off of 2010's run to the playoffs.  It's not an easy task, but it's clear that success in the latter is very much tied to the former.  It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.