Prospect Lists and Organizational Rankings

For those of you who are prospect geeks, today was a pretty exciting day.  MLB.com released their list of Top 50 prospects, and ESPN's Keith Law released his organizational rankings. 

Starting out with the mlb.com list, Angels outfield prospect Mike Trout takes the top spot.  Trout has tremendous upside, and looks to be a true five tool prospect.  With blazing speed, good power to the gaps, and excellent defensive instincts, Trout has all of the makings of a star.  At 19, he still has quite a bit of development remaining, but it wold not surprise me in the least two see him in the majors at some point during the 2012 season.   Rounding out the top five are SP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays), OF Bryce Harper (Nationals), OF Dominic Brown (Phillies), and 2B/OF Dustin Ackley (Mariners).   

In Keith Law's organizational rankings, the Kansas City Royals take the top spot.  This is such a non-surprise, that it's almost anti-climactic.  As I mentioned in my post on the Royals farm system a couple of weeks ago, the Royals have three top hitting prospects in Mike Moustakis, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Meyers, and a plethora of top pitching prospects including Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, and John Lamb (among others).  To say that the farm system is stacked is an understatement of mass proportions.  Rounding out the top five are the pitching rich Tampa Bay Rays, the Atlanta Braves, the Toronto Blue Jays, and (surprisingly) the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Royals, Butler Agree to Extension

UPDATE (1/22/2011 at 11:52 p.m.):  According to Bob Dutton of the Royals Report, Butler's four year deal includes a $2M signing bonus; $3M in 2011; $8M in 2012, 2013, and 2014; and an option for a fifth year at $12.5M with a $1M buyout.

Original Post (1/22/2011 at 2:28 p.m.):   Dick Kaegel of mlb.com reports that first baseman Billy Butler has come to terms with the Kansas City Royals on a four year contract extension worth $30M.  This extension allows both parties to avoid a potentially uncomfortable arbitration hearing.  Butler, just entering his first season of arbitration eligibility, had requested a $4.3M salary from the Royals.  The Royals countered with $3.4M.  All of that's moot now.  The current agreement will buy out all three of Butler's arbitration seasons, plus his first season of free agent eligibility. 

This looks like a great deal on the Royals end for a couple of reasons.  For starters, they receive a degree of cost certainty when it comes to their best hitter.  For a team that's had a difficult time drawing top hitters (due to their modest payroll and losing reputation), making a move like this is very important.  Secondly, this extension ensures Butler is still in a Royals uniform when their promising crop of high end prospects reaches the major leagues.

With Butler only being 24 years old (25 in April), there's reason to believe he'll continue to mature and develop as a hitter.  While his power/slugging numbers slipped a bit last season, there's reason to believe that it will bounce back next season.  Also, his plate discipline took a huge step forward as he drew more walks, and struck out less frequently.  Butler is slow afoot and poor defensively, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him get moved to the DH spot at some point in the not too distant future.  Still, even with his shortcomings, Butler will likely continue to be a productive and valuable player over the the life of the extension.

Last season, Butler produced a .372 wOBA with 15 home runs and 3.4 wins above the replacement level.

Royals Re-Sign Bruce Chen

Break up the Royals!  Dayton Moore has been pretty busy the last couple of days.  Yesterday, the Royals signed Jeff Francis.  Today, they re-signed LHP Bruce Chen to a one year $2M contract. 

After toiling as a replacement level player for four seasons, Chen, 33, made a surprising comeback in 2010 going 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA.  Despite having an ERA below 5.00, Chen did nothing differently in 2010 than he did in the previous four seasons.  Chen remained the same mediocre pitcher exhibiting extreme fly ball tendencies, and posting a below average strikeout and walk rates.  The only thing that changed was his luck with regards to his HR/FB rate.  Prior to the start of last season, Chen had posted an HR/FB rate of 14.8%, while never posting a rate below 11.1% in a given season.*  In 2010, Chen's HR/FB rate dropped to 8.1%.   That unexpected drop in home run frequency just screams outlier season.  Considering Chen's age, fly ball tendencies, and consistent HR/FB rate track record, it's my belief that his 2010 performance is unsustainable.  It would be of no surprise to this writer to see Chen revert back to his replacement pitcher ways come the start of the 2011 season.

* HR/FB rates have been tracked since 2002.  While data with regards to batted ball types exist prior to 2002, it's not considered to be accurate enough to measure for the purposes of calculating xFIP.

This looks like a pretty bad move by the Royals all around.  Considering his status as a replacement level player in four out of the last five seasons, it would've made more sense to allow a pitcher making the league minimum (like Sean O'Sullivan or Kevin Pucetas) to take Chen's spot in the rotation.  In all likelihood, the replacement level pitcher would've provided the same level of production.  Instead, they seem content to throw $2M down the drain.  Royals fans shouldn't be too worried.  Mega-pitching prospects Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, and Mike Lamb are just around the corner.

Francis Signs with the Royals

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick had an interesting tweet today.  The Kansas City Royals have come to terms with former Rockies starting pitcher Jeff Francis on a one year $2M deal.   Francis stands to make an additional $2M if he meets certain performance incentives related to games started an innings pitched.

I know this isn't a sexy move, but I really like this signing for the Royals.  Prior to signing Francis, their rotation consisted of Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Vin Mazzaro, and Sean O'Sullivan.  Yikes!  As Josh indicated in his now famous (or infamous, depending on how you look at it) column on the Ten Worst Rotations, "not a single starter anywhere on this rotation that qualifies as anything more than a barely serviceable #4 starter."  I'm going to go out on a limb, but that might be the nicest thing anyone has ever said about any of those pitchers.  The truth is that most of those pitchers wouldn't crack the rotation on 27 of the 30 major leagues teams.  With Francis added to the mix, they have a solid middle of the rotation starter that's more than capable of serving as an ace for a team scraping the bottom of the barrel. 

Upon returning from Tommy John surgery last May, Francis showed he was still a pitcher capable of producing quality innings.  His 5.00 ERA wasn't pretty, but his 3.88 FIP (3.94 xFIP) indicates that he was likely plagued by poor defense and bad luck.  While his K/9 and swinging strike rates were slightly below his career norms, Francis exhibited strong ground ball tendencies and above average control.  This is a great sign because pitchers that have the ability to induce ground balls and limit walks typically perform better long term than those who do not.  If Francis can stay healthy and repeat his strong peripherals in 2011, I see no reason why he won't return to the 3.5-4.0 WAR pitcher he was prior to surgery.  Solid move by Dayton Moore and the Royals.

Break Up the Royals (Farm System)

For those of you who weren't paying attention (and I don't blame you), the Royals have put together an absolutely stacked farm system.  John Sickels of minorleagueball.com recently released his grades and rankings for the Royals.  Sickels tends to be pretty stingy on giving out A's,* and he gave out only seven to hitters this year.  Three of them just happen to be stud hitters in the Royals farm system (Moustakis, Hosmer, and Myers). 

* According to his site, an A grade means, "prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases."

The fact that the Royals farm system has three "Grade A" hitting prospects is impressive, but their unbelievable pitching depth is even more impressive.  Within their top fifteen prospects, nine are currently starting pitchers.  LHPs Mike Montgomery and Danny Duffy look to be aces in waiting, while LHP Mike Lamb appears to be a very good number two.  RHPs Aaron Crow and Tim Melville were ranked #3 and #4 last year, but slipped to #s 14 and 15 this year respectively due to disappointing seasons.  Still, both pitchers have good stuff with impressive ceilings, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see one or both rebound in 2011.  LHP Chris Dwyer clocks in at #9.  While he has great stuff, there are a lot of questions about his command.  He might end up being one of those pitchers that's better off coming out of the bullpen.  Considering how expensive power relief arms are, it might not be a bad idea to consider making the change at some point in the near future.

If even five of the Royals top fifteen prospects pan out, the future looks to be fairly bright in Kansas City.  Still, sustained future success relies primarily on General Manager Dayton Moore's ability to field a cohesive, competitive team.  Moore has proven, in both Atlanta and Kansas City, to be a gifted evaluator of young talent.  Unfortunately, the same can not be said for his ability to evaluate talent currently in the major leagues.  His insistence on overpaying terrible offensive players like Jeff Francoeur and Jose Guillen, while trading for useless veterans like Yuniskey Betancourt (and calling him a great defensive player) has been nothing short of baffling.*  I'm not positive, but it almost seems as if he's actively trying to put together an every day lineup that boasts a sub-.300 OBP. 

* Yes, I know at least two of the players I named are no longer with the team.  I'm trying to establish a pattern of reckless behavior.

For the sake of Royals fans and sympathizers everywhere (most notably Bill James, Joe Posnanski, Rob Neyer, and Rany Jazayerli), I sincerely hope Moore doesn't screw this up.  The Royals have a serious shot at being very interesting over the next few years if he doesn't.

The Mexicutioner Goes Rogue

Well, this is sure to rev up the rumor mill.   Note:  The report originally came from the Mexican paper Vanguard.

"I didn't put it there, my agent did, as a strategy," Soria said. "But if the Royals decide to trade me to New York I would gladly go to play with the Yankees or any other team... I repeat, I would not block a trade to the Yankees. I like to play baseball and I would play with any team."

Based on the way Soria worded his statement, it sounds like his six team no trade clause is virtually meaningless.  The Yankees are reported to be on that list along with the Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Cubs, and Cardinals. 

According to Jack Curry of YES, the Royals explicitly told teams they weren't interested in trading the hard throwing closer.  Many articles you'll read on this subject are likely discuss how Soria's decision to go rogue about his no trade clause speaks volumes about his desire (or lack thereof) to remain in Kansas City.  While this very well may be true, I'd like to offer an alternative hypothesis.  If the Royals were to trade Soria mid-season to a team on his no trade list, Soria's agent could then use his no trade clause to force the acquiring team to decline all three of his option years.  Why would he want to do that?   Well, by declining all three options season, Soria would become eligible for free agency after the 2011 season.  With the way money has been thrown around this offseason, it's pretty obvious why Soria would be interested in forgoing the security of near guaranteed money for a larger pay day.  Soria, knowing the Royals weren't interested in trading him, had to no choice but to force their hand in the matter.  By going rogue, he increased the likelihood of not only escaping the Royals, but also becoming a free agent after the season.  If this actually is the case, it looks like a pretty smart move by Soria and his agent.