The Saga Continues...

The Michael Young trade market is alive with rumors.  The trade discussions with the Rockies seem to be locked in neutral.  Then, the Phillies threw their hat in the ring because God forbid Ruben Amaro doesn't at least attempt to trade for an overrated and overpaid player.  Semi-surprisingly, those talks went nowhere.  The Angels, who previously expressed interest, officially pulled out of the running when GM Tony Reaggins ruled out such a move during an interview with the Los Angeles Times on Thursday. 

Now, Ken Rosenthal reports that multiple sources have informed him the Rangers are in serious trade talks with the Dodgers.  A deal does not appear to be imminent.  One source was pretty negative about the prospects of a deal getting done because of Young's contract situation.  In order to make a deal work, the Dodgers reportedly want the Rangers to absorb as much as 75% (or $36M) of the remaining $48M on Young's contract.  Absorbing that much money would be an incredibly difficult pill for the Rangers to swallow, and one that would hamper their ability to improve the roster going forward.  Rangers GM Jon Daniels is a pretty smart guy, so he's probably already figured out that there are potentially better trade options available down the road provided he remains patient.  It's not worthwhile for the Rangers to move him just for the sake of getting him off of the roster.  

Unfortunately for the Rangers, that means it's unlikely they'll move him before Spring Training starts in a few days.  It's not an ideal situation, but one in which they'll have to live.  Hopefully, Young exhibits the kind of respect he claims to have for Rangers president Nolan Ryan and manager Ron Washington, and shows up at camp with the intent of not drawing attention to himself.  Young exhibiting the leadership qualities he supposedly possesses would go along way towards starting the healing process.

Dodgers Eyeing Gwynn for Center Field

Continuing in the same vein as the Scott Boras article I just wrote...

Don Mattingly reiterated yesterday that the Dodgers are not interested in bringing back former left fielder Manny Ramirez, while Ned Colletti ruled out the possibility of bringing Johnny Damon into the fold to fill their gaping hole in left field.  Luckily, the Dodger front office is not without a plan.

"As he prepared to leave baseball’s quarterly owners’ meetings, [Ned] Colletti said Gwynn’s speed and defensive ability were strong enough that if he can return to form offensively — he hit just .204 for the San Diego Padres last year — he could wind up as the regular center fielder, with Matt Kemp moving to right and Andre Ethier to left."

That's a pretty big "if" don't you think?  Gwynn, 28, was brutal at the plate last season for the Padres putting up a putrid .276 wOBA in 339 plate appearances.  While part of his hitting woes could probably be blamed on the hostile hitting environment also known as Petco Park, he doesn't project hit much better in the pitcher friendly environment of Dodger Stadium.  Still, Gwynn is not without his perks.  Gwynn is an excellent defensive center fielder, has above average plate discipline, and runs the bases well.  If the Dodgers were to limit him to around 300 plate appearances against only RHP, he should be able to provide at least 2.0 wins above the replacement level.

Guerrier Signs Three Year Deal with Dodgers

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Dodgers have agreed to terms with former Twins reliever Matt Guerrier on a 3 year $12M contract.  Guerrier had been linked to the Yankees and Red Sox, among other teams, this offseason.  The Red Sox appeared to be the most ardent of his suitors this offseason, but it appears the stakes got too high for Theo and Co.  Those who follow of the Red Sox know that Theo Epstein is not one to give middle relievers three year contracts for large sums of money.  My guess is that once the demands breached the 2 year $5-6M level, the Red Sox probably checked out of the negotiations.  

This signing appears to be another in a series of confusing moves by Ned Colletti and the Dodgers this offseason.  Guerrier, 32, has been one of the more underrated relief pitchers in baseball making at least 70 appearances in each of the last four seasons.  His ERA has remained below 3.50 in five of his six big league seasons despite the fact his FIP and peripherals don't support it.  Guerrier is a middle reliever who's fastball sits in the low-90s (2010 average fastball velocity was 90.6 MPH).  He neither induces a lot of strikeouts or ground balls, nor does he possess great control.  At 32 years old, he's unlikely to improve, but a move to the weaker league may help him see improvements in multiple categories including his strikeout and walk rates. 

Guerrier has accumulated a total of 1.6 WAR in his career (or 0.3 WAR per season).  At $5M per win, he'll need to be worth at least 0.8 WAR per season for the next three years, which is a total he's exceeded exactly once in his career (0.9 WAR in 2007).  While it wouldn't shock me to see him exceed that total, signing Guerrier isn't exactly a smart, calculated risk by Colletti.  The Dodgers have greater needs than filling holes in their bullpen.  For instance, they sorely need a hitter that can both get on base and hit for power.  While there aren't a lot of those hitters on the market, it would have been smart for them to have kicked the tires on one of the many undervalued bats that flooded the market this off season.

Dodgers are Organization of the Year? Really?

Perhaps this award was given ironically?  The Los Angeles Dodgers were recently named the Organization of the Year by the Topps Organization.  Each year, Topps gives the award to the organization that “has shown outstanding performance, depth and talent throughout their Major and Minor League teams.”

I guess a fairly shallow farm system and an under-performing major league team makes them an obvious choice for the award.  Let's not forget that they have an incompetent GM, and the most complicated ownership situation in the history of sports.  I'd hate to see who they thought the worst organization of the year was...

More Great Moments in Dodger Decision Making...

If the reports from Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal are true, Juan Uribe made an awful lot of money today.  How much?  3 years and $21M.  Yikes!  This has to be one of Ned Colletti's most...um...interesting moves, and he's had a lot of them.  (Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones anyone?)  Then again, what else do you expect from a man that was an apprentice under Brian Sabean.*

*Making fun of Brian Sabean never ceases to bring me joy.

To steal a word from Casey Close's vocabulary, I can't help but be "baffled" by the Dodgers willingness to go to three years on Uribe, especially considering the uncertainty surrounding the franchise's ownership situation.  $21M is a lot of money for a player that's posted below average wOBAs in six of his nine full seasons in the major leagues.  Offensively, he exhibits above average power, but not much else.  Uribe has a below average line drive rate, poor plate discipline, and replacement level on-base abilities.  This isn't to say he's not a useful player.  Uribe is a versatile defensive player who's proficient at three defensively challenging infield positions (2B, 3B, and SS).  That said, Uribe isn't the type of player any team should invest in long term as there are cheaper alternatives on the market each offseason.  The Dodgers would've been wise to do their due diligence, and explore the market for undervalued players.

With Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake currently entrenched at shortstop and third base, the Dodgers will likely play Uribe primarily at second base.  Despite Uribe's offensive shortcomings, he still represents an upgrade over current second baseman Ryan Theriot, who's now likely to be non-tendered.  While Uribe's acquisition likely makes the Dodgers better in the short term, it poses several questions for the Dodgers in the long-term.  Uribe will be under contract for his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons.  As such, he's much more likely to decline than improve.  It's not a stretch to imagine Uribe regressing back to this 2007/2008 replacement level form.  If he does, Colletti will be the one with egg on his face.

In an unrelated note, I wonder how Uribe's signing will impact the Derek Jeter contract negotiations...

Dodgers Willing to Trade Loney

Due to the uncertainty surrounding the current ownership situation,* Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti will face a pretty tall order this offseason.  He's being tasked with finding a way to construct a championship caliber team while maintaining or cutting payroll.  Ken Rosenthal reported earlier today that the position player the Dodgers would be "most willing to move is first baseman James Loney. 

*Will someone in Hollywood please contact Frank and Jamie McCourt?  If anyone needs a reality TV show, it's them.  It'd be a bigger disaster than the Real Housewives of Atlanta.  

What?!!  Are you serious?  James Loney is available?  Are you sure?  We are talking about the same James Loney that hit .267/.329/.395 (.315 wOBA) and provided 1.1 WAR in 2010, right?  Now, there's a shock!  I can't imagine any team wanting to trade away a light hitting first baseman with average on base skills! 

All right.  That's enough sarcasm for now.  I can't say that I'm surprised the Dodgers want to trade Loney.  What's to like?  Yeah, he's 26 and plays well defensively at his position, but he provides very little in terms of offense (only 1.3 weight runs above average between 2008-2010).  For a first baseman, Loney provides very little power.  In the last three seasons, he hit 36 home runs and slugged only .409.  Both numbers are among the worst in the league at the position.   A lot of people will point to Loney's RBI totals over the past three seasons (driven in at least 88 runs each season), as a measure of Loney's value.  The only problem is that RBIs don't show value; they're a context-less record of what occurred during a given game, season, or career.  Driving in runs is a function of opportunity, not talent.  Hell, if you give a replacement level player enough opportunities, he'll drive in 100 runs. 

I'm not sure what Colletti thinks he's going to get back for Loney.  As I stated above, he provides little offense for his position, and doesn't provide enough value on defense to make him a consistent 2.0 WAR player (the accepted minimum for an every day player).  There isn't a market for that kind of player--especially one that made $3.1M and is going into his second arbitration season.  It might be smarter for Colletti to non-tender him next month.      

Dodgers, Decision Making...A Match Made in Heaven

On Saturday, FOX Sports Ken Rosenthal reported that the Dodgers were close to finalizing a three year deal for left handed starting pitcher Ted Lilly.  Now, it appears it's a done deal.  Now, I don't know the financial details of the deal, but considering the state of the McCourt's divorce and ownership situation, I do question wisdom behind signing Lilly for his age 35, 36, and 37 seasons.  Historically, good starting pitchers start to slowly decline around age 27-29, and then see a more precipitous decline after age-32.  Ted Lilly has done a good job at holding off Father Time, so far, but how much longer will that last?  Over the last three seasons, Lilly has been worth 8.9 wins above the replacement level, which is exactly what you'd expect out of your number three starter.  Is it fair to expect this level of performance over the life of his new contract?  Well, that takes further analysis.

Over the past three years, Lilly has actually outperformed his career numbers in K/9, K/BB, BB/9, HR/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP.  All of this bodes well for him in the future, as there's no clear line of regression in these areas.  Another area that helps Lilly is the fact that he'll be pitching at Dodger Stadium.  Historically, Dodger Stadium has favored pitchers (multi-year park factor of 95 with 100 being a neutral park), and hampered home run power hitters.  This really works in Lilly's favor considering he's an extreme fly ball pitcher.  Last year, Lilly gave up fly balls at a rate of 52.6% (his second consecutive season above 50%).  When you consider that on average a pitcher in a neutral ballpark will have a home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rate of 10.5%, pitching in a homer unfriendly environment will certainly help Lilly's ability to prevent runs.  On the other hand, Lilly's contact rate has steadily increased from 79.5% in 2008 to 81.9% in 2010, while his whiff rate has dropped from 9.7% to 8.9% over the same time span.  As a pitcher allows contact at a higher rate, more balls will drop in for hits, and his ERA will start to rise.  We can expect this trend to continue for Lilly because a velocity, movement, and location decline as a pitcher ages, particularly after age 32.  (This may explain why Lilly has been giving up fly balls at an extremely high rate over the pas couple of years.)

So how much will Lilly regress over his three year contract?  That's really tough to say.  In my earlier post on Cliff Lee, I assumed that Lee would lose approximately 1 win above replacement for every season from his age-35 season on.  That doesn't really work in this situation because in the Cliff Lee situation, I was looking 5-6 years out.  In this situation, I'm looking at each of the next three years.  To adjust, I will assume 0.5 WAR regression for his age-35 and 36 seasons, and 0.75 for age-37.  Here's how he looks:

2008-2010 average WAR - 3.0 WAR
2011 - 2.5 WAR
2012 - 2.0 WAR
2013 - 1.25 WAR

Based on my raw projection, Lilly will be worth 5.75 WAR over the life of his next contract.  This season, a win on the free agent market was worth approximately $3.9M.  Assuming a 5% increase in the value of a win over each of the next three years, Lilly's contract would to be valued at no more than 3 years and $24M in order for the Dodgers to recoup enough value from Lilly over the life of the contract.  Based on the fact Lilly is coming off of a 4 year $40M contract (he made $13M in each of the last two seasons), I don't see Lilly taking that big of a pay cut.  In all likelihood, the Dodgers are going to be stuck with a pitcher that will underperform over the life of his next contract.  Considering the likely financial constraints that the McCourt's are under, Lilly's contract will hamper the Dodgers' ability to not only maintain payroll and roster flexibility, but also maximize the amount of production they can get out of the young talent currently at the Major League level.