Can Derek Lee fix the Power Outage in Baltimore?

The Baltimore Orioles are once again coming off another disappointing season. 2010 marked the 15th consecutive year in a row that the Os finished with a losing record. Baltimore's season also included three different managers, although fortunately the Orioles were able to finish strong down the stretch going 34-23 under Buck Showalter. And of course anyone who follows baseball knows that the O's pitching is worse than a Robert Pattinson movie. Their starting pitching was just atrocious, with not a single one of their starters (who had at least 10 starts) posting a winning a record. Even their bullpen was pedestrian at best, with closer Alfredo Simon accumulating a measly 17 saves in 49 appearances and a glaringly bad ERA of 4.93.

To be fair Baltimore's pitching had very little run support. The case could easily be made that the Orioles offense was just as bad as their pitching. I know a big part of baseball is the ability to manufacture runs and get people on base. Getting on base is not as much of a problem as one might expect. Everyone in the starting lineup except for shortstop Cesar Izturis posted an OBP of over 300. The main problem with Baltimore's offense was its power numbers, particularly from the right side. Not a single player got to even 80 RBI. First baseman Ty Wigginton (who has since departed for Colorado) led the way with a pitiful 76. Meanwhile DH Luke Scott topped the team in HR with 27 and Nick Markakis had the most doubles with 45. An analysis of the team's offensive output had to have indicated to the top brass a desperate need to acquire power in the offseason.

And the Orioles front office's master plan was to bring in none other than--Derek Lee??? I'm sorry did I miss something? I thought this was 2011 not 2005. How could any team possibly think that Derek Lee would help their power numbers? Apparently the Orioles, for whatever misguided reason, do. Again this is just another demonstration of why the Baltimore Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball over the last decade and a half. Their moves are more myopic and perplexing than Mr. Magoo at a rave.

Look at the facts. Derek Lee is 35 years old an age where most first basemen's careers are on the downward slide. Lee's statistics over the last few years bare that out. Aside from a resurgent season in 2009 where Lee hit 35 HR and drove in 111 RBI, he hasn't hit over 22 HR or 90 RBI since 2005. Part of that has been due to injury but that is just a further indicator that Lee is not as durable anymore. Although his SLG in 2010 was a robust 428, he didn't crack 20 HR and barely hit 80 RBI. It was clear that the Cubs saw the writing on the wall. That is why they traded Lee to Atlanta last season. The Braves, not surprisingly, didn't re-sign him.
Granted Lee is a solid defensive first baseman and Luke Scott, another first baseman, mostly DHs. Also it is important to note that Lee will now be playing in the AL East where the ballparks on average are smaller than other divisions in baseball. Camden Yards in particular is intriguing because left field is only 333 feet.
However, Lee's 2010 WAR was 2 which is the worst of his career. Add that to a career low 340 OBA, his age, and some lingering questions about his durability, and all points indicate that Lee is unlikely to repeat his 2009 performance. In fact I kind of see Lee's 2009 season as a bit of a fluke, kind of like Derek Jeter's MVP type campaign in 2009. For both players I see the drop off continuing.

Despite everything I've just written however, Buck Showalter today said that he would bat Lee in the middle of the lineup in 2011, most likely in the third or fourth slot. Personally I don't see that lasting too long. I like how Adam Jones is starting to come along and I believe at some point he will be inserted into that number three slot.

The bottom line is that Derek Lee is not the solution to the power outage in Baltimore. He barely qualifies as electrical tape.

Derrek Lee Contract Update

Just wanted to give a quick update on the Derrek Lee contract.

Terms have not been officially disclosed, but Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports that the deal is expected to be worth approximately $8M.  Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports tweeted that he heard the deal includes incentives that could push the contract up to $10M.

If this is all true, it's a great deal for both sides.  The Orioles get the proven power hitter their lineup has desperately needed for several years.   Lee, on the other hand, gets a chance to rebuild his value after a slightly disappointing season, while still making $8-10M.  Sounds like a win-win for both sides to me.

Additionally, Lee's contract gives the Orioles maximum flexibility going into the 2011 Hot Stove season.  As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, this gives them a great opportunity to make a run at Prince Fielder.

Orioles Agree to One Year Deal with Derrek Lee

UPDATE (12/31/2010 at 4:51 p.m.):  Jon Heyman reports that Lee's deal will be for $8M.  This report is unconfirmed, so stay tuned.

Original Post (12/31/2010 at 4:07 p.m.):  The Orioles finally landed a free agent.

Dan Connely of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles and Derrek Lee have come to terms on a one year contract.  While the terms of the contract have not been disclosed, Lee was rumored to be looking for a contract between $8-10M. 

As I mentioned about a week ago, Lee is a better option for the Orioles than LaRoche.  Instead of paying for three years of average offensive production from LaRoche, they get one season of low-risk, high-reward production out of Lee.  Yes, Lee had a down year in 2010, but there are encouraging signs he could rebound in a big way in 2011.  Lee still has above average power (54 XBH in 2010), good patience at the plate (11.7% walk rate), makes solid contact (22.5% line drive rate versus 1.3% pop-up rate), and plays average to above average defense at his position (2.1 UZR).  All things considered, Lee should be worth 2.7-3.0 WAR in 2011, which would make his theoretical $8-10M salary a huge bargain.

With the Orioles out of the running, LaRoche appears destined (or resigned, depending on how you look at it) to signing with the Nationals.  Unless he can get another team like the Rays involved in the negotiations, LaRoche will probably get stuck with signing a one-year deal for the second season in a row.

Orioles Still Pursuing Lee...But is it Mutual?

Now that the Adam LaRoche negotiations have settled into a permanent stasis, the Orioles have turned their full attention to signing former Cub first baseman Derrek Lee.  The only problem is that Lee might not be interested in coming to Baltimore.

The question is whether the Orioles can satisfy Lee competitively, financially and geographically — and how strongly the Nationals remain in the mix for the 14-year veteran, who is coming off surgery on his right thumb.

The Padres offered Lee a one-year deal for more than $8 million before signing free agent Brad Hawpe to play first, sources say. Lee, 35, presumably would want similar money from the Orioles or Nationals, if not more.

His preference, according to a source with knowledge of his thinking, is to play for a contender and/or play out west. Lee, who is from Sacramento, Calif., now has a home in southern California.

Lee doesn't have a lot of options left at this point.  When he spurned the Padres one year $8M deal, they turned to the much cheaper Brad Hawpe to fill their opening at first base.  That left only the Orioles and Nationals as viable options for Lee.  Of course, the O's and Nats satisfy neither of Lee's primary desires:  playing for a contender nor playing close to home.  Since he can't satisfy either of those two desires, he needs to act quickly to ensure he still gets a contract representative of his value.  If he allows LaRoche to sign first, he would be limiting his market to one team (unless a "mystery team" appears--Jon Heyman is probably cooking one up as we speak), which greatly inhibits his negotiating power.  This would force him to slash his salary demands further, and likely force him to sign a contract well below his true value.

I won't be surprised if the Padres $8M offer ends up being the best offer Lee ends up seeing this offseason.  It's a shame he turned it down because it seems like an ideal situation for him.  Such is life on the free agent market.  Contrary to popular belief, the free agent market is filled with just as much risk as it is riches.

LaRoche Talks Break Down, O's Look to Lee

Perhaps the LaRoche to Baltimore deal isn't a done deal after all.

While the Orioles haven't abandoned hope of signing free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, their inability to get a deal done has prompted them to renew talks with Derrek Lee, according to multiple sources.

(snip)

It's unclear whether that is because LaRoche is reportedly seeking a three-year deal while the Orioles would prefer not giving him three guaranteed years, or LaRoche simply has better, more lucrative offers, and doesn't want to play in Baltimore.

I'm asking the same question a lot of people are asking right now.  What is it about Baltimore that free agents don't like?  Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they play in the AL East with the Yankees and Red Sox?  Or maybe Peter Angelos has a much worse reputation, among the players, than I'd originally thought?  Unfortunately, I don't really have a concrete answer.  What ever the reason, the O's need to figure out a way to reverse this disturbing trend.  Otherwise, they're destined to be the major league's perennial free agent bride's maid.

No one knows for sure how the Orioles and LaRoche have reached this impasse.  Many have speculated (including the author of the article I've linked to) that either the O's are unwilling to guarantee a third season, or LaRoche has received a more lucrative deal from another team.  The former sounds pretty reasonable, as I opined as much the other day when I first reported the LaRoche deal.  The latter, on the other hand, seems a little more far fetched.  Based on all of the credible reports I was able to find, there are only three teams reported to be looking for a first baseman:  the Orioles, Nationals, and Padres.  The Padres, due to their current ownership and payroll situation, are unlikely to give LaRoche $7M, let alone a figure greater than that amount.  While the Nationals seem to have money to burn, they seem to be more interested in signing Lee than LaRoche.  I haven't found any reports indicating the Nationals have had anything more than a passing interest in the former Brave.

While the deal for LaRoche isn't dead, the Orioles have reignited talks with former Cub All-Star Derrek Lee.  According to Ken Rosenthal, Lee is reportedly looking for a one year deal worth around $8-10M.  While at first glance, this might seem like a bit of a reach considering Lee produced only a .340 wOBA and 2.0 WAR in his age-34 season, but it's not.  After doing a 5-4-3 WAR regression, I project Lee will likely provide between 2.7-3.0 WAR next season, or $13.5-15M in value*; thus, making his $8-10M salary a bargain.  Lee still has plenty in the tank.  He has above average power, good patience at the plate, makes solid contact (line drive vs. pop ups), and plays average to above average defense at his position.  Considering his desire for a one year deal, Lee is probably a better fit for the Orioles than LaRoche. 

* Based on Fangraph's WAR salary model.  Average cost of a win on the free agent market is currently around $5M.

Should the unexpected happen and the Orioles lose out on both Lee and LaRoche, I expect the Orioles to make a run at a quality bat like Johnny Damon, Vlad Guerrero, or Jim Thome to fill the DH spot.  The Orioles currently have a couple of internal options at first base in Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold, should it comes to that point.  While neither are ideal options defensively, their defense shouldn't be a detriment to the team.