Arbitration Recap

Today is deadline day for teams and players to exchange salary arbitration figures.  Typically, deadline day is met with a flurry of deals by arbitration eligible players seeking to avoid having to go through the uncomfortable experience of an arbitration hearing.  Today, was no different.  Rather than putting multiple individual posts about each individual signing, I thought it would be more efficient to do a quick round-up of deals completed today.

• Prince Fielder - According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Brewers and Prince Fielder have come to terms on a one year $15.5M contract.  This looks like a solid move for both teams.  Fielder gets the distinction of being the highest paid Brewer of all time, while the Brew Crew retains their power hitting first baseman for one last run at the promised land.  Fielder's true talent level is between 4.5-5.0 WAR at this point, so Milwaukee should have no problem justifying his contract.
• Jonathan Papelbon - Sean McAdam of Comcast Sports Net reports that Papelbon and the Red Sox agreed to a one year $12M contract.  After being one of the two or three most effective closers in baseball from 2006-2008, Papelbon has struggled mightily over the past two seasons.  At only 30 years old, there's always the chance he rediscovers his dominant form, but he'd have to not only regain his elite control, but also show he can consistently throw his plus-fastball and splitter at the same time.  With Papelbon's true talent level around 1.7-2.0 WAR, he'd need to have a season on par with his 2007 campaign (2.4 WAR) in order to justify his contract.  That might be too much to ask at this point.
• Heath Bell - SI's Jon Heyman reported that Heath Bell has signed a one year $7.5M contract with the Padres in his last season of arbitration-eligibility.  Bell, 33, has been one of the best closers in baseball over the past two seasons posting a double digit K/9 rate and a K/BB rate over 3.00.  Bell will be an interesting free agent case next season.  With Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon and Yankees set-up man Rafael Soriano both may hit the free agent market next season, Bell may end up being the odd man out when it comes to scoring a big free agent contract.  His true talent level is around 2.0 WAR, so he should have no problem justifying his 2011 salary.
• Matt Capps - According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, the Twins have agreed to terms with Matt Capps on a one year $7.15M deal.  This deal struck me a bit by surprise considering how many relief pitchers the Twins allowed to leave via free agency (Crain, Guerrier, Fuentes, and Rauch).  Capps is a solid pitcher, I don't think anyone would consider him to be within the first or second tier of closers.  His walk rate is solid, but his strikeout rate is a bit lacking for a closer quality pitcher.  Considering Capps's 2011 salary, and the cost of acquiring him (catching prospect Wilson Ramos), it might've been a smarter move for the Twins to non-tender Capps.  
• Cody Ross - Jane McCauley of the Associated Press reports that the Giants and outfielder Cody Ross have agreed to terms on a one year deal worth $6.3M.  Ross made $4.65M last season, and given the nature of arbitration, he was guaranteed a sizable raise.  Still, I can't help but think that his salary is almost entirely the function of his huge postseason.  Ross was an average player in every sense of the word last season posting a .324 wOBA, +2.7 UZR, and 2.2 WAR.  As a 2.0 WAR true talent player, he'll be worth his salary in the WAR-sense, but still seems like a bit of an overpay.  It probably would've been better for the Giants to non-tender him, and try to sign him for less as a free agent.
• John Danks - The Miami Herald reports that the White Sox have agreed to terms with John Danks on a one year $6M deal.   Danks really seemed to come into his own last season making improvements with some small improvements his control and ground ball rates.  His strikeout rate is a little low for someone who induces whiffs on 9% of his pitches, but it's still acceptable.  Going into his age-26 season, he looks like a pretty solid bet to produce another 3-4 WAR season in 2011.   
• Matt Garza - According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, the Cubs have come to terms with Matt Garza on a one year deal worth $5.95M.  Garza was a "Super-Two" arbitration eligible player, so as a fourth year player, this was his second time through the process.  As I've mentioned a few times before, Garza put up solid primary numbers, but allowed more contact, induced fewer strikeouts, and saw a 4% drop in his already low ground ball rate.  Even with going to the weaker National League, Garza will have to turn around his peripherals if he's going to be able to sustain the kind of success his primary number indicate.  Garza is a 2.5 WAR true talent player, so he'll provide more than enough value to justify his salary in 2011.  He's going to have to improve upon that number over the next couple of years, if he's going to be able to justify his 2012 and 2013 arbitration salaries.
• Carlos Quentin - The Miami Herald reports that Quentin and the White Sox have agreed in principle to a one year deal worth $5.05M.  After putting up a near-MVP quality season in 2008, Quentin has fallen on hard times over the past two seasons.  His batting average has plummeted, walk rate has dropped, and defense has deteriorated beyond repair.  It's gotten so bad for Quentin that he officially qualifies as a replacement player at this point.  The White Sox tried to unload him earlier this offseason, but not surprisingly, didn't find any takers.  Quentin will need to produce a solid season in 2011, or else he'll become a candidate to be non-tendered after the season.  He probably should've been non-tendered after 2010, but no GM wants to be the guy non-tendering a 28 year old hitter with 30-35 home run power.
• Clint Barmes - According to Ken Rosenthal, the Astros and Clint Barmes agreed to a one year deal worth $3.95M.  This one actually makes the Papelbon deal look slightly palatable.  Between the Rockies and Astros last season, Barmes produced a pathetic .284 wOBA.  Keep in mind that he did this while hitting in two of the better hitters parks (Coors and Minute Maid) in baseball.  Going into his age-32 season, Barmes is a 1.0 WAR player at best.  If the Astros had been smart (which they're not), and non-tendered him at the beginning of the offseason, they probably could've re-signed him for a quarter of the cost. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury - According to Sean McAdam, Jacoby Ellsbury has agreed to a one year $2.4M contract with the Boston Red Sox.  This was Ellsbury's first crack at arbitration, and he didn't fare too poorly considering he only played 18 games last season due to a recurring rib injury.  Ellsbury should be completely healthy going into the 2011 season, so there's no reason he shouldn't be able to repeat his 3.0 WAR performance from 2009.  He's going into his age-27 season, so a lot will be expected of him.  At some point, he's going to need to not only show marked improvement in his plate discipline, but also exhibit his vaunted raw power during games. 

There were many others who signed including Joba Chamberlain, Adam Jones, Josh Willingham, Joe Saunders, and Ryan Ludwick, but I think a ten player analysis is enough for now.  Other players will sign over the next month as they rush to avoid a potential arbitration hearing.  They won't come in a rush like the ones today though.  Instead, they'll trickle in.

Cubs Acquire Garza from Rays

According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, the Rays and Cubs have completed an eight player trade that results in pitcher Matt Garza being shipped to the north side of Chicago. 

From the Rays perspective, I love the trade.  While Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA) may’ve appeared like he was finally harnessing his ace-potential, there is reason to believe his 2010 performance was a mirage.  His strikeout rate plummeted, while his contact rate jumped.  His ERA outperformed his FIP by half of a run.  He continued to exhibit greater flyball tendencies, which will likely lead to more home runs in the future.  Could he turn these indicators around?  Sure, he’s only 27.  But why take the risk when you have a surplus of young pitching?  Jeremy Hellickson has ace quality stuff, and should have no problem taking Garza’s spot in the rotation.  Top prospect LHP Matt Moore should be ready by mid to late-2011 should they need re-enforcements down the stretch.  Rays GM Andrew Friedman is selling high, which is exactly what he should do. 

In exchange for Garza, they’ll receive five prospects:  RHP Chris Archer, OF Brandon Guyer, and SS Hak-Ju Lee, OF Sam Fuld, and C Robinson Chirinos.  Archer appears to be the gem of the deal.  According to Baseball America, he has two plus-plus pitches, which includes a fastball that touches 96-97 and a slider that dives out of the zone.  His control (4.1 BB/9 rate between high-A and AA ball in 2010) isn’t tremendous, but he’s only 21.  Should he harness his control, I don’t see any reason why he won’t end up being a solid number two quality starter in the major leagues.  Guyer and Lee both project to be solid major league players, having been given a solid “B” grade from John Sickels of minorleaguebaseball.com.

From the Cubs perspective, I don’t really get it.  Then again, Jim Hendry is their General Manager, so most of his moves are down right confusing.  In the short-term, it kind of makes sense.  They do need starting pitching, but there are better, more efficient ways of fulfilling your team’s needs.  This was the kind of trade a legitimate playoff contender makes.  The Cubs are not a legitimate playoff contender.  They’re an old team on the decline with a bloated $144M payroll.  If anything, they should be doing everything in their power to shed payroll and rebuild their already weak farm system—not trade away three of their top ten prospects.  It’s bad business. 

There are probably thousands (if not millions) of Cubs fans rejoicing at the news of their team acquiring Garza, but I’m not really sure why.  This move gets the Cubs further away (not closer) from the elusive World Series championship they crave.  In reality, Cubs fans should be calling for Hendry’s ouster.

Potential Targets for the Yankees

When Cliff Lee spurned the Yankees 6 year $138M offer to pitch in Philadelphia, most baseball insiders figured they would use their prospect rich farm system to land an ace (or near ace) quality pitcher to fill the major hole in their starting rotation.  Since that time, several big name pitchers have come off of the board:  Zach Greinke was traded to the Brewers; Ricky Nolasco signed an extension with the Marlins; reports surfaced that there was a 30% chance of long-time Yankee Andy Pettitte returning to baseball; and Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez were both declared unavailable by their respective General Managers.

Now that most of the true (or near) aces are unavailable, who do the Yankees target now?  Luckily for you, I have a few ideas:

Chad Billingsley - When Billingsley, 26, came up through the Dodger organization, many scouts saw him as the future ace of their starting pitching staff.  Despite immense talent, he seems to have fallen out of favor in Los Angeles.  Why that is, I'll never know.  Billingsley is a power pitcher who induces a lot of whiffs and ground balls.  He has struggled with his control at times in his career, but he's shown improvement in this area registering a career low BB/9 rate of 3.24 in 2010.  While his fastball could be best described as average, he has control of four secondary pitches.  His cutter and 12-6 curve ball are both plus pitches that induce weak contact and a lot of swinging strikes.  He also has a good slider and change-up, but he typically uses those as "show" pitches.

Billingsley put together an excellent season in 2010 going 12-11 with a 3.57 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 8.03 K/9, 2.48 K/BB, while providing 4.6 fWAR in value.  With two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, he should be very reasonably priced in comparison to comparable arms on the free agent market.  He looks like a great fit between Sabathia and Hughes in the rotation.

Joe Blanton - This is a pretty interesting option for the Yankees because it looks like the Phillies are willing to do anything to unload the $17M they owe him over the next two seasons; thus, he's not likely to cost much in terms of prospects.  Blanton is a solid middle to back of the rotation starter who neither induces a lot of whiffs or eats a lot of innings, but still maintains above average control.  He tends to give up more of his fair share of home runs (considering his fly ball rate), but that is partly due to the pinball machine of a ballpark he currently calls home.  Blanton primarily relies on his poor fastball, but also mixes in four other pitches in his repertoire.  His slider and change-up are above average, and occasionally reach "plus" status.  His curve ball and cutter are mostly "show" pitches that tend to be more effective than not.

Blanton threw only 175 innings last season due to injuries.  He still managed to go 9-6 with a 4.82 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 6.87 K/9, 3.12 K/BB while providing 1.9 fWAR in value.  Like I mentioned above, his contract is reasonable, and he's unlikely to cost a lot in return.  This might be a decent, albeit unspectacular, move for the Yankees.  Ultimately, he would slot in best behind Burnett as the number four starter in the rotation.

Mark Buehrle - I have to admit, I was surprised to see Buehrle was only 31 years old.  For some reason, I thought he was older.  Maybe it's because it feels like he's been in the league forever.  Anyway...  Buehrle's not an ace anymore.  In fact, one could make a great argument that he never was an ace.  He's not going to rack up high strikeout totals, eye popping radar gun numbers, or superb ground ball rates.  What he will give you is solid, steady production out of the number three spot in the rotation.  Buehrle works quickly, avoids home runs, and is one of the best in the business when it comes to limiting walks.   He has four primary pitches:  an effective fastball, solid change-up and a cutter and curve ball that have become less effective over the past couple of years.  He has a decent slider, but like Billingsley, it's a "show" pitch.

Buehrle put up his typical steady season with the White Sox last year.  He went 13-13 with a 4.28 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.24 K/9, 2.02 K/BB, while providing 3.8 fWAR in value.  Buehrle is under contract for one more season at $14M.  Due to his contract situation and undervalued skill set, it's possible the Yankees could pick him up for the relatively cheap cost of a B and a C grade prospect.  He would slot in nicely between Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett as the number three starter.

Matt Garza - Let me start out by saying that the Yankees are unlikely to acquire Garza because they'd have to grossly overpay to the Rays to trade him within their division.  Still, Garza has become known as a "Red Sox killer" throughout the league, so there's definitely a benefit to the Yankees making a deal.  Garza is about to enter his age-27 season, so he still his prime in front of him.  He has good fastball velocity that is still on the rise, and has ace quality stuff.  (Garza's problem is widely considered to be his mental make-up.  He tends to be easily frustrated, which causes him to implode at times.)  While Garza relies largely on his plus-fastball, he has three solid secondary pitches including his plus-slider and average change-up and curve ball. 

Garza had a solid year last year, despite a plummeting strikeout rate, which isn't a great sign for a pitcher that tends to allow more fly balls than ground balls.  In 2010, he went 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 6.60 K/9, 2.38 K/BB, while providing 1.8 fWAR in value.  Based on his age, I think it's likely he reverts back to the (much better) pitcher we saw in 2009.  This is especially true if he's traded to a National League team.  Garza is in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and (as a super two) has another three years of eligibility left.  This makes him a very attractive, cost-controllable candidate going forward.  Ultimately, I think he'd fit best slotting in as the number two for now, while eventually taking on the number three slot in the Yankee rotation by the start of 2012 or 2013.

Derek Lowe - Most Yankee fans remember Lowe for his masterful performance in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS while with the Red Sox.  Like Buehrle, Lowe is not an ace.  Still, he's a steady middle of the rotation starter that could provide some depth to the relatively shallow Yankee rotation.  As a true ground ball pitcher, Lowe will induce ground balls at a rate of 55-60%.  Lowe has four primary pitches:  an average fastball, plus-sinker, an above average change-up, and a fringy slider.  He doesn't induce a lot of whiffs, but he is capable of racking up surprising strikeout totals for a pitcher with his skill set.

After a tough first season with the Braves in 2009, Lowe bounced back in 2010.  He put up a 16-12 record with a 4.00 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 6.32 K/9, 2.23 K/BB, and provided 2.7 fWAR in value.   Derek Lowe still has two years and $30M remaining on the 4 year contract he signed in January 2009.  Going into his age-38 season, there is a little more risk involved in trading for Lowe.  Still, he's be a nice pick-up provided the price was reasonable.  Like Buehrle, Lowe slot in nicely between Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett as the number three starter.

Carl Pavano - Been there.  Done that.  This isn't happening.

Ideally, Billingsley would be the best fit in New York, although Buehrle would be a great pickup as well.  If anyone has any other reasonable trade targets for the Yankees, please send them my way.  Again, this is all speculation and projection.  I haven't seen any rumors stating the Yankees have interest (or are in talks to acquire) in any of these players.

Three Teams in on Garza

It’s always strange watching a talented, promising team be dismantled before your very eyes.  The Rays are no different.  After two AL East championships and an AL pennant in three seasons (no easy feat), the Rays have become a victim of their own success.  Gone is speedy left-fielder Carl Crawford who took his talents to Boston for the bargain basement price of $142M over seven years.  Gone is slugging first baseman Carlos Pena who found someway to spin a .196/.325/.407, 1.0 WAR season into a 1 year $10M deal from the Cubs.  Gone is the former slick fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett who was shipped to San Diego for a couple of fringe relief pitchers in their mid-20s.  Now, it appears that Red Sox slaying starting pitcher, Matt Garza, is also on his way out of Tampa.

The Tampa Bays are reportedly in talks with the Cubs, Brewers, and Rangers regarding Garza.  The Rays are said have targeted outfield prospect Lorezno Cain from the Brewers. No word yet on who they might be interested in obtaining from the Cubs or Rangers.  Talks are still in the early stages, so we probably won’t see a lot of movement on this front for a few days—if at all.

On the surface, Garza appears to have had a very 2010 good season, putting up a 15-10 record with a 3.91 ERA in 204-2/3 innings.  Those numbers are a bit misleading though.  Garza saw a huge drop in K/9 rate (21% decrease from 8.38 in 2009 to 6.60), which not surprisingly corresponded with an increased contact rate (80.9% to 83.7%).  Additionally, his ground ball rate continued its steady, yet rapid decline from a career high mark of 47.7% with the Twins in 2007 to 35.8% in 2010.  Not surprisingly, his decrease in groundball rate as been accompanied by an increase in home run rate.  These two factors (strikeout and groundball rates) partially resulted in Garza posting a rather pedestrian 4.51 xFIP and 1.8 WAR. 

The good news is that Garza is only 27, and will probably bounce back in 2011.  His velocity is still strong, and his fastball is still considered to be a “plus” pitch per Fangraphs pitch run values.  If he can rediscover his slider (which produced a lot of whiffs in 2009), I see no reason why Garza can’t be a productive number two or excellent number three starter.  If not, he’ll likely become an overpriced back of the rotation starter before too long.