Did the Compensation Rule Cost the Brewers MikeTrout?

With Prince Fielder almost certain to leave via free agency after the 2011 season, the Brewers knew they needed to make some aggressive moves in order to make one last run at achieving postseason glory.  In doing so, they decided to address their most glaring weakness:  their starting rotation. 

On December 5th, they made their first move by trading second base prospect Brett Lawrie (37th on Keith Law's top 100) to Toronto in exchange for SP Shaun Marcum.  Two weeks later, the Brewers let the whole league know they were going "all in" for 2011 when they completed a blockbuster trade in which they received 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner Zach Greinke from the Royals in exchange for SS Aclides Escobar and three minor league prospects.  While both of these trades were mutually beneficial to all parties involved, it gutted the Brewers farm system.  When Keith Law released his Top 100 prospect list a couple of weeks ago, the Brewers were the only team in baseball that did not have a single player on the list. 

The funny thing is that it didn't have to be this way.  According to Tom Hardicourt of the Milwaukee Sentinel-Journal, the Brewers could have drafted consensus number one prospect Mike Trout.  Trout was selected with 25th pick in the 2009 amateur draft by the Angels.  That pick originally belonged to the New York Yankees, and was initially awarded to the Brewers as compensation for losing C.C. Sabathia via free agency.  Unfortunately for the Brewers, they never had the opportunity to use that pick.  Why?  Hardicourt explains:

"Later that off-season, the Yankees signed free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, who had played for the Angels. Because Teixeira was a higher-ranked Class A free agent - the only one rated above Sabathia that winter - the Angels inherited New York's first-round pick and the Brewers were bumped back to fill the Yankees' second-round slot, the 73rd pick overall."

(snip)

 "(The compensation rules) hurt us that particular year," said Brewers general manager Doug Melvin. "The only player we could lose that (first-round) pick on was Teixeira, and the Yankees signed him. We thought that was an unfair part of the system."

Yeah, the compensation system is a little unfair, but a few teams get screwed every year.*  It's the nature of the beast.  I doubt the Brewers would've been upset if their position with the Angels had been reversed.  Still, it couldn't have been enjoyable to lose the first round compensation they were owed for Sabathia all because the Yankees decided to sign Teixeira as well. 

* The Blue Jays got really screwed in 2009.  They received the Yankees third round pick because he was rated lower than both Teixeira and Sabathia.

As Hardicourt mentions, instead of receiving the 25th overall pick, the Brewers received the 73rd pick (plus the 39th pick in the "sandwich" round).  While they weren't compensated in the manner they would've preferred, they were still pretty well compensated.    

The problem with the premise of Hardicourt's argument is there's no way of knowing whether or not Brewers would've selected Trout with the 25th pick.  While Brewers Scouting Director Bruce Seid stated they had him "rated high as an impact player with tools," he would not comment as to whether they would've used that slot to select the top prospect.  Furthermore, GM Doug Melvin goes on to say:

"Whether he would have been the pick, I can't say for sure, but there's a good possibility," said Melvin. "I know Trout was on the board for us."

Unless Hardicourt has insider information he's not sharing, it's pretty clear that he's speculating, pure and simple.  Yes, the Brewers could've selected Trout with the 25th or 26th pick in the draft, but it's just as possible they could've passed on him like the previous 24 teams did.  Playing the "what if" is fun, but it doesn't solve the issue the Brewers have with regards to their farm system's depth.  The fact they missed out on an opportunity to draft Trout is unfortunate, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.  Sometimes life isn't fair.

The compensation system (and possibly the amateur draft) that's currently in place will almost certainly be one of the key topics that come up during the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) negotiations.  Players, agents, and some front office executives are unhappy with the current process, and will likely push for it to be changed.  As it currently stands, the compensation system in place will become obsolete when the CBA expires on December 11, 2011.

Brew Crew Goes All-In

If anyone was unsure of the Brewers motivation in trading for Zach Greinke, General Manager Doug Melvin makes it crystal clear:

“This is what I call a ‘now’ trade, getting a player of his ability,” said Melvin, who indicated the trade was “90% complete” last night and finished this morning.

“I feel like I’ve acquired a CC Sabathia except for two years and maybe longer. It feels good. It was a costly trade. We gave up a lot of good, young players. This is a credit to our scouting and player development people to have the kind of young players it takes to make a trade like this.”

That’s right folks.  The Brewers are going for broke. 

After struggling to find serviceable starting rotation pieces over the past two seasons, the Brewers have acquired two very good starting pitchers (Greinke and Marcum) in the span of a couple of weeks.  While the Brewers had to give up a few high potential prospects in Lawrie, Cain, and Odorozzi, the short term benefit was too great for the Brewers to pass up.*  Slugging first baseman Prince Fielder and talented (but oft-injured) second baseman Rickie Weeks are eligible to become free agents after the 2011 season.  With neither expected to return, the Brewers window of contention is rapidly closing.  The Greinke trade gives them an opportunity to not only challenge the upstart Reds and star-studded Cardinals for NL Central supremacy, but also seriously contend for a shot at a World Series championship. 

* As Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra points out, if the “Dooms Day” scenario occurs with Fielder and Weeks both leaving, the Brewers could look to restock their farm system by trading Greinke away either after the 2011 season or at the 2012 trading deadline. Greinke’s no trade clause will no longer be a factor after this season.

One other interesting anecdote to mention regarding this trade is that the Brewers were one of the fifteen teams named on Greinke’s no trade list.  While Melvin tries to spin Greinke’s trade approval in a positive light (“It's an indication he wanted to come to Milwaukee…”), there’s a chance it had more to do with his agent’s relationship with the Brewers than his desire to play in Milwaukee.  Regardless of how a decision was made, Greinke is in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are better because of it.

Brewers Land Greinke

Late last night, ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Brewers and Royals have agreed to a trade that would send 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner Zach Greinke to the Brewers for SS Aclides Escobar, OF Lorenzo Cain, and starting pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress.

To quote Jon Malkovich from the movie Rounders, "Like a young man coming from a quickie, I feel so unsatisfied."  That pretty much sums up my reaction to the Brewers landing ace Zach Greinke from the Royals.  I'm not upset that the Brewers won the Greinke sweepstakes, but I'm not thrilled either.  Sure, it's not sexy, but that's not really an issue for me.  Most moves aren't sexy.  My bone of contention stems from the fact a trade occurred so quickly.  Now that Jeter and Lee have made their decisions, I was really hoping the Greinke trade talks would spur conversation, rumors, and innuendos for a couple of weeks.  Instead, it ends just as things were starting to were really starting to heat up. 

What does this mean for the Brewers?
 
It's pretty clear what the Brewers get out of this trade.  In Greinke, they have the top of the rotation starter that they've been missing since C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets left town via free agency after the 2008 season.  Greinke has excellent command of four pitches.  His fastball and sliders are both plus pitches (registering at least +10 runs on Fangraphs' pitch type value scale), and his curveball and change-up are right around league average.  Greinke has great control (career BB/9 rate of 2.27), and has excellent movement on each of his four pitches.  While he saw a drop in his both his K/9 and swinging strike rates from 2009 to 2010, he should see a bounce back next season as he moves to the National League. With Greinke, the Brewers now have a starting rotation that can compete with the Reds and Cardinals in the NL Central.  Yovanni Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf will, more comfortably, slot into the two, three, and four spots in the rotation.  Without Greinke, they would've been out of place in the top three spots.

This trade leaves a couple of holes on the field for the Brewers.  As a result of the trade, the Brewers are without their projected starting shortstop and center fielder.  While they have options to replace Cain in center with either defensive whiz Carlos Gomez and former Red Chris Dickerson, neither are long term solutions.  They could look to the free agent market, but that's looking pretty thin right now at the outfield position.  Available players include the veritable pu pu platter that is Kevin Mench, Andruw Jones, Brad Hawpe, Xavier Nady, Manny Ramirez, and Randy Winn.  None of those players are good options to either play CF, or accumulate 600 plate appearances.  They could look to trade for an outfielder (perhaps with Oakland who has a surplus of outfielders?), but the Brewers aren't in a position to trade away any more prospects in the aftermath of the Greinke and Marcum trades.  The free agent shortstop situation is just as bleak with Cesar Izturis and Edgar Renteria remaining as the best of what's still available.  Yikes!

What does this mean for the Royals?

Aclides Escobar - Well, for starters, the Royals finally have a decent defensive shortstop in Aclides Escobar.  (Adios, Yuniesky Betancourt.)  At 23, Escobar looks like he could be best described as a poor man's Rey Ordonez.  While he should provide plenty of value on the defensive side of the ball, he'll be a black hole on offense.  He doesn't hit for average, has no power, and has poor on base skills.  In his first full major league season, he put up a putrid .270 wOBA (-22.5 wRAA), which was good for third worst in the majors among qualified players.  He doesn't project to get that much better offensively as he enters his prime (around a replacement level .300 wOBA).  Still, Escobar should stabilize a defense that's been consistently poor over the past decade. 

Lorenzo Cain - Cain, a former 17th round pick in the 2004 amateur draft, has long been considered one of the Brewers top prospects.  He's been described as a "very toolsy" player whose bat is a "boom or bust investment."  In layman's terms, he's still pretty raw.  Cain was an excellent defensive right fielder before the Brewers moved to center because he didn't fit the offensive profile of a corner outfielder.  He has above average speed and good range in center, so he profiles to be average to above average at the position.  Offensively, Cain still strikes out too much.  His patience and plate discipline has improved in recent seasons, which has resulted in an increased walk rate.  While he has quick wrists and raw power, it's unknown whether his raw power will ever translate into "in game" power.  The Royals desperately needed a young center fielder, and Cain fits the bill. 

Jake Odorizzi - The Royals already have a treasure trove of top pitching prospects.  With Odorizzi, it just got deeper.  You can never have too much young pitching.  Odorozzi has four pitches, which includes a four seam fastball that registers between 90-94 MPH; a two seam sinker that registers between 88-92 MPH; a plus-curve ball; and an average slider that has late movement.  Most scouting reports that I've read state he has "smooth" or "clean" mechanics, good command of all of his pitches, and mixes them up well.  Should he reach his potential, he projects to be a number two or three starter in the majors.  This is a very solid pick-up by the Royals.

Jeremy Jeffress - Jeffress is one of those great stuff, terrible command prospects.  If he puts it all together, he could be a top of the rotation guy.  If not, he'll probably end up as a fringe back of the rotation starter or run of the mill relief pitcher.  Add in his substance abuse problems (two suspensions for testing positive for "a drug of abuse"), and his future is even cloudier.  That said, Jeffress, 23, has the kind of potential that most teams can't turn their backs on.  The Royals, who already have a system full of high potential pitching prospects, can afford to take a chance on the troubled right-hander.  Jeffress's fastball is farily straight, but has plus plus velocity, registering between 95-98 MPH.   His 11-6 curve ball has the potential to be above average, but his command with the pitch is very inconsistent.  His change-up is a fringe-average show pitch at best.  Unless he can both develop his change up and harness his command, it's likely Jeffress will be moved to the bullpen where he could be very effective as a late inning set-up man or a second tier closer. 

All things considered, it's a pretty solid trade for both sides.  Personally, I think the Royals could have gotten more for Greinke had they been a little more deliberate in their negotiating tactics.  The package they reportedly requested from the Nationals (RP Drew Storen, SP Jordan Zimmerman, and 2B prospect Danny Espinoza) was potentially a better deal.  Apparently, that deal was very close to coming to fruition.  According to SI's, Jon Heyman Greinke put the kibosh on the deal by invoking his no trade clause.  Either way, both teams got what they needed.  The Brewers acquired an ace, and the Royals received the help up the middle they desperately needed.

Brewers, Pavano in Talks

Best mustache this side of Ned Colletti

Now that Cliff Lee is poised to make a decision this weekend, Carl Pavano becomes the premier pitcher remaining on the market.  That's kind of scary if you think about it.  Anyway... 

The Brewers and Pavano have been involved in "very productive" discussions over the last few days:

“I thought it went well,” said O’Connell, who along with Pavano met with Brewers general manager Doug Melvin and assistant general manager Gord Ash. “It was a very productive meeting. They gave us a view of the organization and how Carl would fit in their rotation. They talked about Milwaukee and what they have to offer. It was a very educational meeting, a positive experience.”

Pavano is reportedly looking for a 3 year $33M deal similar to the one the Dodgers gave to Ted Lilly in October.  The Brewers are reluctant to go beyond two years at this point.  They've had poor luck (read: have made terrible decisions) in giving out contracts to free agent pitchers on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.  (See Jeff Suppan, Randy Wolf) 

I can understand the Brewers apprehension with giving Pavano, who will turn 35 in January, three years.  Considering his age and injury history, Pavano's not a great bet to provide enough value to justify his next contract.  I like Pavano.  I love the way he's rebuilt his career over the past two seasons, providing 6.9 WAR over that time.  That said, if Pavano was demanding three years from my team, I would have to pass.

Pavano is said to have met with four teams, with one of those teams being the Washington Nationals.  The market for Pavano will likely continue to be slow for the next few days, while the Lee situation gets sorted out.  Once it does, expect a deal to come together within a week.