Mark Teixeira Speaks His Mind

Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York had a chance to sit down with Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira the other day.  Despite all of the naysayers, Teixeira tells Marchand not to count the Yankees out just yet.

"We're the underdogs this year," Teixeira said. "I love it. No one is picking us right now. Everyone in here should be looking forward to winning a championship. When you put on the pinstripes that is exactly what your goal should be every year. I think everyone understands that just because the public may not be picking us it doesn't mean we don't believe it in here."

While it might seem strange for anyone to call the Yankees, a team with a payroll pushing $200M, an underdog, I think the description fits.  For some reason, everyone seems to have left the Yankees for dead.  To an extent, I see their point.  After all, the Red Sox made key improvements by adding Crawford, Gonzalez, Wheeler, and Jenks.  The Yankees signed Rafael Soriano, but lost out on acquiring their primary target, Cliff Lee.  Still, it's never a good idea to count the Yankees out.  They're like the serial killer in a horror movie.  Until you've killed them twice (yes, twice), there's always a chance they could come back. 

Teixeira didn't stop there.  He also had something to say about the recent speculation about the Yankees making a move for Albert Pujols next winter.

"I'm not going anywhere," Teixeira said as Yankees position players reported on Saturday. "I got that no-trade for a reason. I'm going to be buried in these pinstripes. You know what, I would be disappointed if the fans of New York weren't looking to make our team better, but they've just got to know I'm not leaving."

Well, that pretty much settles that.  If Teixeira says he's not going anywhere, I tend to believe him.  Really, it doesn't make any sense for him to waive his no trade clause.  He plays for the premier franchise in major league baseball, and is all but guaranteed a legitimate shot a championship every season.  How many players can say that?   While playing for the Cardinals, in a tremendous baseball town with a storied history, has it's benefits, Teixeira would have to live with following a legend in Pujols.  That's an impossible act to follow.  Furthermore, Cardinal fans may eventually learn to love him, but he'll ever achieve Pujols status.  In lieu of a huge financial incentive, I don't see any reason Teixeira should leave New York.  The man has it made. 

Sabathia Expected to Opt Out

Yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post had a chance to catch up with Carsten Charles Sabathia.  Despite numerous opportunities to outright state his intentions to decline the opt out clause in his contract, as he'd previously stated, and remain with the Yankees through 2015, he refused to give a concrete answer either way.

“Anything is possible in a contract.” In another, the big lefty said, “Who knows what is possible, but I am not thinking about anything beyond Opening Day.”

Yeah, that answer should end any and all speculation right there.  Yup.  Nothing to see here.   Did I miss the article where C.C. announces his intention to attend the Albert Pujols School of Distractions? 

Brien from IIATMS had this to say about the Sabathia situation:

I’m personally ambivalent on whether Sabathia decides to opt-out or not. The Yankees gave him that option, so he’s certainly got every right to do so if he wants. And heck, if it were me I’d opt out without giving it a second’s thought. I’m sure some people will write columns about how Sabathia doesn’t care about anything but the money, but those will be marginal voices and before long everyone will forget about the whole thing. But if Sabathia opts out after making everyone think he said he isn’t going to, those voices will be a lot louder and they’ll find a much larger audience that sympathizes.

Brien's absolutely right.  Sabathia's issue isn't that he hasn't made a decision.  The problem is that, in December, Sabathia emphatically stated that he would not be opting out after the upcoming season.  Now, all of the sudden, the decision is up in the air.  I suppose we should have seen this coming all along.  Then again, shouldn't Greg Genske, Sabathia's agent, have seen the opt out questions coming as well?  Isn't that what he's paid to do?   If I were Sabathia's agent, I would've sat him down, and come up with a prepared, standard response to any and all questions on the subject.  Something like, "I'm aware of the clause.  While I haven't made any decisions, I fully intend to sit down with my agent at the end of the season to discuss my options.  Right now, I'm solely focused on leading my team to championship number 28," would have been more than sufficient.  If he'd used that statement (or something similar) back in December, Sabathia's comments the other day wouldn't have been news. 

Later, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reported that a source "with knowledge of the situation" informed him that "barring a major injury or unforeseen circumstance," Sabathia would exercise the opt out clause and become a free agent. 

As I've mentioned in previous articles, opting out is probably the smart move for Sabathia.  While leaving four years and $92M on the table is a risk, it's certainly warranted given the five year $125M contract Cliff Lee received from the Phillies in December.  Sabathia is both younger and a slightly better pitcher than Lee, so it's not out of the realm of possibility he exceeds Lee's contract both in terms of length and average annual value.  In all likelihood, this is his last chance to really cash in on his talent.  He might as well make the most of it while he can.  If I were him, I wouldn't give it a second thought.

CC Drops 30 Pounds, White Castle Stock Plummets Admist Stockholder Panic

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia has lost about 30 pounds this winter, and will come into camp in the best shape in several years.  Apparently, the motivation behind Sabathia's weight loss was to reduce the pressure on his balky knee that's been giving him trouble in recent years.  In turn, this should probably help his performance both in the upcoming season and each season afterward, assuming he can keep the weight off.

While I think it's great when anyone takes steps toward improving his or her health, I can't help but wonder if Sabathia was driven by an alternate motivating factor.  It's no secret that Sabathia can "opt out" of his contract after the season.  Even though he's indicated that he's not interested in exercising the clause, I can't help but notice he hasn't officially declined his right to do so.  In all honesty, he'd be stupid to do it, if only because he has so much to gain by exercising it.  Let me explain.

Sabathia projects to be worth approximately 5.5 WAR for the 2011 season.  Assuming he follows the average half win decrease per season aging curve, Sabathia is a good bet to put up a WAR line of 5.5/5.0/4.5/4.0/3.5 (22.5 WAR) over the final five seasons of his contract.  I doesn't take a statistical wizard to look at these numbers and determine that Sabathia would be putting himself in a much better financial situation by opting out at age-31.

By opting out, Sabathia would enter the free agent market a full year younger than Cliff Lee was this past offseason.  Additionally, the pitching free agent market is fairly weak next year with aging stars like Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, and Mark Buehrle leading the charge.  While these pitchers will certainly draw considerable interest, teams would find a pitcher of Sabathia's caliber far more desirable.  As a result, he'd be in a great position to clean up, and sign a contract exceeding Cliff Lee's five year $125M contract with the Phillies.

If Sabathia chose to remain loyal to the Yankees and declined his "opt out" clause, he'd likely be entering the market as a 3.0-3.5 win pitcher.  While he'd still be a valuable commodity, his next contract would likely be worth significantly less than the one he'd be likely to receive next season as a free agent.  In all likelihood, he'd be compromising his ability to maximize his earning power over the long haul.

As it currently stands, Sabathia has too much to gain by opting out of the seven year $161M contract he signed in December 2008.  While I have no doubt his knee played a role in his decision to lose 30 pounds, the allure of signing another lucrative deal was likely the primary motivating factor.  Typically when players come into Spring Training "in the best shape of their life" (or something close to it), it's during a "contract year" in which the player is angling to break the bank during the offseason.  Sabathia appears to be doing just that.  I certainly don't blame him.  In fact, I'd do exactly the same thing if I were in his shoes.  

Cano Drops Agent for Boras

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano has changed agents, dropping Bobby Barad for Scott Boras.  The switch reportedly occurred after the two had a meeting together in the Dominican Republic.  

For the most teams, hearing that one of your star players has changed his representation to Scott Boras is cause for anxiety.  The Yankees, blessed with the largest payroll and revenue stream in baseball, are not one of them.  Instead, it's just a minor annoyance. 

It's not clear as to why Cano decided to make the switch now, but some have speculated that he's probably angling for his next big contract.  While Cano is in the final guaranteed season of the four year $30M contract he signed back in 2008, the Yankees still own two options for $14M in 2012 and $15M in 2013.  Considering how team friendly the options are, the Yankees would be crazy not to pick them up.  Additionally, the Yankees have a long standing policy of not negotiating with players until after their contract has expired.  Unless they change their policy (very unlikely), he'll have to wait until after the 2013 season to get negotiate and sign his next contract. 

Cano is coming off a tremendous season in which he finished their in the AL MVP voting behind Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera.  In 2010, Cano produced a .389 wOBA with 73 extra base hits, and 6.4 fWAR.

Yankees Brainstorming Potential Pettitte Replacements

Andy Pettitte has retired. While the Yankees are clearly disappointed that Andy Pettitte decided to retire, they're not the type of team that wallows in their own self pity.  In the face of adversity, they pick themselves up and move on.  That's why it's not surprising to hear that the Yankees have already started to kick around a few names as possible replacements for the stoic lefty.  According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, those names include Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard, and Gio Gonzalez.

Obviously, this isn't the final list, but its a start.  Rosenthal's report isn't clear as to whether they've actually started exploring these options, or if they just had a brainstorming session.  At first glance, it seems like a mixed bag.  Kind of underwhelming.  Still, the list is probably worth analyzing (rather than tossing it off) to see if there are any viable candidates to replace Pettitte.  Just for the sake of wasting some time, let's take a look at each of the five candidates Rosenthal mentioned in his tweet.

Scott Kazmir

Armed with a plus-fastball, good slider, and above average change up, Scott Kazmir used to be one of the top left-handed pitchers in baseball.  While he was never had good control, he was blessed with the ability to avoid contact and induce whiffs.  As a result, he racked up high strikeout totals, which helped minimize the effect of his high walk rate.

In 2008, his fortunes started to change when he suffered from an elbow injury in Spring Training.  From that point forward, Kazmir started to not only lose velocity across the board, but also allow greater levels of contact.  Not coincidentally, his elevated contact rate was directly responsible for his strikeout rate bottoming out.   Furthermore, his once acceptable GB/FB ratio had been replaced with one that was much heavier in terms of fly balls.  As a result, Kazmir was not only allowing far more hits, but also more home runs.  These factors combined with an already mediocre walk rate, are a recipe for disaster.  Not surprisingly, Kazmir's ability to pitch effectively has been severely compromised.  

While Kazmir's successful past (in particular as a Red Sox killer) might seem alluring to the Yankees, it's probably better that they pass on him.  Last season he pitched so poorly, he was considered to be a below replacement level pitcher (-0.8 fWAR).  Moving to the stacked, ultra-competitive AL East isn't likely to change that. 

Joe Saunders

With the Angels in 2008 and 2009, Joe Saunders put up some surprisingly good primary stats.  Unfortunately, his primary numbers didn't mesh up well with his peripherals, and he wasn't able to sustain his performance.  The problem with Saunders is that he doesn't do a lot of the things that make a pitcher successful over the long haul.  He allows too much contact; doesn't induce enough strikeouts and swinging strikes; and a sub-par walk rate (in comparison to his strikeout totals).  While he does a good job keeping the ball on the ground, this ground ball rate (45.8% for his career) isn't high enough to compensate for his other flaws.

Saunders has four pitches (fastball, slider, curve ball, change up), but none of them register as "plus" pitches; his change up flashes plus.  Without a true plus pitch that induces whiffs, it's unlikely he'll ever reduce his contact rate (86.4% in 2010) to a point to where he can be anything more than a number five starter.  Even though Saunders might be a better pitcher than the four candidates currently have duking it out for the final two rotation slots (Garcia, Nova, Mitre, Colon), he will not only have a cost in salary ($5.5M, but also in prospects.  Those two factors alone make Saunders cost prohibitive. 

Wade LeBlanc

As for Wade LeBlanc, there's not a whole lot to write about him.  Like Saunders, he's a protypical crafty-lefty that tries to get by on finesse and guile.  Up to this point, his strategy has only been moderately successful.  Despite pitching half of his games in the ball park facetiously known as Petco National Park, he somehow managed to find a way to post both an ERA over 4.00 and an HR/FB rate (11.6%) that exceeded the league norms in 2010.  LeBlanc is primarily a fly ball pitcher without an "out" pitch, which makes him very susceptible to the long ball.  By moving to either a hitter friendly park, or at least one that's neutral but leans homer-friendly (like Yankee Stadium), LeBlanc could end up seeing his ERA/FIP skyrocket to the point where he's no longer a useful pitcher.  In fact, after three seasons hovering at or below the replacement level, you could argue that he's not as useful pitcher as he is now.  While LeBlanc is likely to be making a salary at or slightly above the league minimum, it's probably smarter for the Yankees to go with one of the four candidates they already have in place.

Clayton Richard

Clayton Richard is another crafty-lefty type of pitcher.  Despite this fact, I tend to like him a little more than the previous two pitchers I discussed.  While Richard doesn't miss a lot of bats, he does a much better job at coaxing ground balls and inducing strikeouts.  Richard has command of five pitches, which includes a very effective fastball (worth 22.3 runs on Fangraphs pitch type scale) and a solid cutter that breaks in on the hands of right-handed hitters.  The only pitch in his repertoire that's disappointing is his change up.  With some refinement, he could turn it into a much more effective weapon.  If he can do this, he might be able to push his ground ball rate above 50%, which would go a long way towards securing his long-term viability as a major league starting pitcher.  My primary concern with Richard is his high walk rate (3.48 per nine innings in 2010).  While his walk rate did drop significantly in comparison to his 2009 rate, he'll need to show he can improve that rate even further before I could support him moving to the extraordinarily patient AL East.  He could be a decent fit with the Yankees down the line, but it's still a year or two too early to move him just yet.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez is my favorite pitcher of the bunch.  There's so much to like about this kid.  He's young, misses bats, induces ground balls, and has tremendous stuff.  Gonzalez has a three pitch repertoire that features a fastball that flashes plus and sits 90-94 (and touches 95-96); a knee buckling 11-5 plus-curve ball that induces a lot swinging strikes; and change up that's primarily used as a show pitch and could use some refinement.

Despite all of his positive qualities, Gonzalez is not without his drawbacks as well.  Unfortunately, like Scott Kazmir, he has a tendency to allow walks in bunches.  While that's a pretty big problem, it's one could have a relatively easy solution.  During his three seasons in the major leagues, there's one area in particular where Gonzalez has strugged--first pitch strikes (53.4% versus a league-wide average of 58.5%).  If he can somehow find a way to bring his first pitch strike rate up to the league average, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a corresponding 10-15% drop in his walk rate.  While this adjustment would only be the first of many that Gonzalez would need to make towards improving his control, being successful in this endeavor would go a long way towards showing he can be the top of the rotation starter many scouts predicted him to be.

As far as the Yankees making an attempt to trade for him, I say go for it.  While yes, I have concerns about his control, Gonzalez's stuff is so good that I think he's worth the risk.  I wouldn't trade Montero, Brackman, or Gardner for the kid, but I would certainly consider moving Nova, Romine, Heathcoat, or Nunez for him.

Pettitte Announces Retirement

BREAKING NEWS

According to Michael Kay of ESPN New York, Andy Pettitte has informed the Yankees he's decided to call it quits.  Press conference arrangements are being prepared for Friday afternoon.

This has to be a difficult day for both Yankee fans and the organization.  While the Yankees admitted they've already started to plan for life without Pettitte, there was still a lot of hope that he would return to the Bronx to don pinstripes once again.  That dream is gone.  Now, instead of planning for life without Pettitte, they actually have to live life without him.  That's not going to be easy.

Going into the 2011 season, the Yankees will have a rotation that features Sabathia, Hughes, and Burnett at the front end, and some combination of Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, and Bartolo Colon for the four and five spots.  While it's not an ideal situation, it's certainly workable.  Luckily, the Yankees' offense and bullpen is good enough that it should be able to cover up the deficiencies of the starting rotation.  Still, they'll need to find a way to trade for at least one starting pitcher (Billingsley, Buehrle, Cook, Dempster, Pinero?) by the July 31st trading deadline if they plan to be serious championship contenders down the stretch.

Andy Pettitte was a member of the Yankees for the bulk of his career.  His career started with the Yankees in 1995 and remained with the team through 2003.  Prior to the 2004 season, Pettitte left the Yankees to join the Houston Astros, and would remain there until after the 2006 season.  In 2007, Pettitte rejoined the Yankees, and had been an integral part of the team ever since.  Over the course of his career, Pettitte produced a 240-138 record with a 3.75 FIP, 6.63 K/9, and 2.34 K/BB and 66.9 fWAR.*  Throughout his career, he was one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in baseball, and had a devastating cutter that was known for inducing ground balls.  Pettitte was a three time All-Star (1996, 2001, 2010), and received votes for the Cy Young Award five times (1996, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2005).

*  By the way...For those of you who think Pettitte doesn't have a legitimate Hall of Fame case, I'd like to point out that Tom Glavine (who most consider to be a slam dunk HoF case) accumulated only 1.6 fWAR (68.5) more than Pettitte despite having a career that spanned six additional seasons.  

Pettitte's postseason track record speaks for itself.   Over the course of his sixteen year career, he posted a 19-10 record with a 3.83 ERA and a 173/72 K/BB ratio in 263 postseason innings.  His 19 postseason wins are the most in major league history.  As a member of the vaunted "Core Four," Pettitte helped return the Bronx Bombers to glory by leading them to five World Championships and seven American League Pennants over a fifteen year period between 1996-2010.

Yanks, Garcia Agree to Minor League Deal

Typically, the Yankees corner the market on high-end free agents.  This year, they've taken a bit of a different route:  signing low cost, potential high reward pitchers to minor league contracts.  Last week, it was 2005 AL Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon.  Today, it's former All-Star Freddy Garcia.  While there's no word as to how much he's guaranteed if he makes the club out of Spring Training, the Associated Press reports that the deal maxes out at $5.1M if he meets all of his performance based incentives.

On the surface, it's really easy to pan this move.  After all, Garcia is 34 years old, has missed significant chunks of three of the last four seasons, and tends to be homer prone.  Really, there's not a lot to like.  That said, you can't just look at the player in these situations.  The contract the player is signed to is equally important.  In the case of Garcia, the deal is of the minor league variety.  While we don't know Garcia's guaranteed salary if he makes the club out of ST, we can assume it's pretty low (between $500K and $1.5M).  At that rate, especially for a high-revenue, high-payroll team like the Yankees, that kind of money is a drop in the bucket.  It's a rounding error.  If he fails to produce, they can release him outright, and eat his salary.  If he does produce, both sides win.  Garcia gets his incentives (up to $5.1M), and the Yankees get a ton of value out of a pitcher of which they expected little.  Garcia has been a very effective pitcher at points during his career, so it's not ridiculous for the Yankees to hope they can catch lightning in a bottle.  Plus, anyone is better than Sergio Mitre who has proven to be the very definition of a replacement level pitcher.  What else do they have to lose?

Randy Levine De-Friends Chuck Greenberg

If I could compare the Yankees off-season acquisitions to wine, I'd say the vintage is on par with the week old boxed variety. With also-rans like Bartolo Colon and Andruw Jones creeping into the vinegar stage of their respective careers, it is a wonder that the front office didn't go after Fernando Valenzuela and Kirk Gibson.

Yet several months after the Yankees lost out to a refined Cliff Lee Bordeaux, apparently both the Yankees and the Texas Ranger have yet to rinse the taste of bitter grapes out of their mouths. However, instead of directing their angst against Cliff Lee or the Philadelphia Phillies, Yankees president Randy Levine has gotten involved in a media war with Texas Rangers owner Chuck Greenberg. 

Greenberg has publicly stated that he was glad Lee ended up in the NL and not with the Yankees. This comes on the heels of Greenberg's previous comments regarding Cliff Lee not wanting to come to New York because of the fans reaction towards Lee's wife. Rather than letting this go and dismissing Greenberg's words as the lament of an owner who lost the Cliff Lee Sweepstakes, Levine fired back. The Yankees' president called the Rangers' owner's statements "delusional" and that he'll "be impressed when he demonstrates he can keep the Rangers off welfare."

Ouch.

As much as Levine needs to retract the claws and focus on the Yankees upcoming season and their lack of starting left handed pitching, his statements while vitriolic have some validity. The cold hard financial facts are that the Rangers have received revenue sharing for three years running, have taken financing from baseball, and taken advance money from the TV networks.

Also Chuck you might want to remember that you just now completed the purchase of the Rangers with Nolan Ryan and it wouldn't have happened at all if MLB had not stepped in. Although the Rangers made the World Series last year, why don't you try putting a consistently winning team on the baseball field before you start pointing the finger at other ball clubs. Until that time I think Levine has the one up on success here.

Additionally, Chuck Greenberg might want to avoid ridiculous statements like this:

 "We pried the door open a little bit to give ourselves another opportunity. And ultimately the Phillies were able to take advantage of the opportunity we created. While we would have preferred that he'd chosen to go with us, we're real pleased that he's going to the other league."

Ok so what he's saying is that he's glad that the Phillies were able to sweep in and take Lee at the last minute? You created the opportunity for the Phillies so basically they had to make little to no effort? I'm sure the fans of your ball club are thrilled that you seemed more concerned about keeping Lee from the Yankees than actually signing him.

It is this kind of thinking that underscores why the Yankees are the Yankees and the Rangers are the Rangers. You can't be an elite team if you're more concerned with keeping players away from good teams than you are about signing those players to your team. You also can't make money either. The Red Sox made a great acquisition in the off-season picking up Crawford, but I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have intervened to make sure Crawford went to the Colorado Rockies instead of the Yankees if they couldn't attain him. That's because the Red Sox,like the Yankees, care about improving their respective teams rather than getting in a media pissing contest. (For the record Levine never should have gotten drawn into this mess. I thought he was smarter than that.)

My advice to Chuck is to focus on the 2011 season and how the Rangers are going to move on and be a successful team without Lee. Chuck you also might want to make some money while your at it so your fans can stop paying for hot dogs from Aldi's.

Yankees Sign Bartolo Colon...Owners of NYC Are White Castle Restaurants Rejoice!

The Yankees finally have the starting pitcher they've been looking for.  Well, not really, but they did sign one of note.  According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Yankees have signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league contract. 

I think Corrye summed it up best when he texted:  "So apparently Fernando Valenzuela wasn't available..."  He has a  point.  After all, what could the Yankees possibly want from a 37 year old pitcher that's produced a 5.02 FIP and 2.3 WAR in 257 innings over the past five seasons?  What possible value could they get from a washed up pitcher?

In reality, they're probably not expecting a whole lot.  As it currently stands, the Yankees have a pretty shallow rotation with Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre filling the back end.  Signing Colon is a move to add depth.  In all likelihood, they'll stash him in AAA until someone either gets hurt, or proves to be ineffective.  Considering Colon's low salary (maxes out at $900K if he makes the club out of Spring Training), he poses absolutely no risk to the Yankees.  If he doesn't work out for the Yankees, it's no big deal.  $900K is a drop in the bucket for a team whose payroll typically tops $200M.  If he does provide some value, it's a huge win for the Yankees.  Granted, that scenario is pretty unlikely, but it's still possible.

When you look at the signing from all of the angles, the Yankees really can't lose.

Jeter to Centerfield? Cashman says...maybe.

Yankee centerfielders. You know their names: DiMaggio, Mantle, Williams, and now....Derek Jeter?

Well if you ask Yankee GM Brian Cashman the idea doesn't sound that far fetched. According to ESPN.com, Cashman told WFAN radio personality John Francesa that should the necessity ever arise for Jeter to move from SS, that centerfield would be an excellent position.

Many question Jeter's ability to play such a physically demanding position for the next four years. Even though he's coming off another Gold Glove season (Jeter has five for his career) anyone who's ever looked at FanGraphs knows Ozzie Smith he ain't. At 36 it's already quite obvious that Jeter's skills and range continue to diminish and it is very doubtful that he'll stay at shortstop for the rest of his career. A move to a less taxing position could also be beneficial to his productivity at the plate as well.

A close analysis of the options demonstrates that center or left field is a decent fit. With A-Rod at third and Texiera at first for the next several years those positions are not options. Second base is possible only if the Yankees don't re-sign Cano to a long term deal, and the chances of that happening are about as likely as me winning Dancing With the Stars. Swisher is locked up in right field for at least another two years and as long as he repeats similar numbers to the '09 and '10 seasons it's likely the Yankees re-sign Swish as well. That leaves Brett Gardner in left and Curtis Granderson in center. In all honesty either one of those positions are possibilities for Jeter although I think it's a little liklier that Jeter would be in left rather than center. It is a somewhat less taxing and Granderson is without question a very good centerfielder defensively so why bump him.

Another option that no one discusses is moving Jeter to DH. This is undoubtedly Posada's last year and it's clear he will be DHing most of the season. Why not move Jeter into that slot once Posada retires? I could see it happening, however the chances aren't great only because Captain Jete is the type of person that wants to contribute in every facet of the game, not just at the plate. Although Jeter is a team guy, I feel he has too much pride to give up a defensive position for just a bat.

The whole thing depends on how bad Jeter becomes defensively, what the Yankees are willing to accept, and what Jeter is willing to do. It's an equation that's not as simple as 2+2=4. The results of moving Jeter to the outfield this late in his career are unknowable. Robin Yount made the transition in the 1980s but it was still in the middle of his career and he won an MVP after the move. That's a once in a generation event that Jeter is not going to imitate. When the day comes for Jeter to make the move to the outfield I just pray it looks more like Ichiro Suzuki moving from right field to center and back, rather than Jose Canseco trying to pitch.

Yankees, Jones Finalize Deal

According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Yankees have agreed to a one year contract with OF/DH Andruw Jones worth $2M.  If Jones meets all of his performance based incentives, the deal would max out at $3.2M.

While Jones is no longer good enough to play every day, he should be a solid right-handed alternative off of the bench for the Yankees.  Between filling in at the corner outfield spots against lefties and subbing for Jorge Posada at DH, Jones should have no problem accumulating 250-350 plate appearances in 2011.  Last season, Jones mashed lefties to the tune of .256/.373/.558 with eight home runs in 102 plate appearances. 

Can Burnett Bounce Back in 2011???

There have been numerous great Yankees over the years with distinctive nicknames. The Iron Horse, The Bambino, Joltin' Joe, and Mr. October are just a few that spring to mind. I would like to suggest a new one for A.J. Burnett.

Mr. Inconsistent.

To say that the Yankees' righthander had an off year is like saying Lady Gaga enjoys flashy clothes. His pitching statistics stunk worse than the East River in 2010. Burnett tied his career high giving up twenty-five HR and his ERA was a putrid 5.26. Even worse he gave up the second most hits of his career (204) and that was pitching almost thirty-five less innings than his worst total in 2008. Up until last season Burnett's WAR averaged around three but plummeted to -0.1 in 2010. Add in the nineteen batters he plunked last year and a H/9 ratio of 9.8, and you have a season more forgettable than Ashton Kutcher's last movie.

The question at the forefront of Yankee fans and front office members alike is can Burnett return to form in 2011?

Unfortunately I believe the answer is yes. I say unfortunately because Burnett's "form" if anything is to be consistently injured and inconsistent. If you analyze Burnett's career track record the picture becomes alarmingly clear. Here is a pitcher that except for his last year with the Blue Jays (surprise a contract year!) has never won over twelve games. Additionally, barring that 2008 season with the Jays, Burnett only managed to start over thirty games once. AJ's ERA continues to hover around the four range with a career average of 3.99 and his WHIP has gotten worse every year since 2007. One wonders how the Yankees were able to swallow the Kool-Aid after the 2008 season and decide to pay this guy $16.5 million a year through 2013. Burnett's agent didn't just turn chicken*&^% into chicken salad, he turned chicken*&^% into Porterhouse steak.

Watching Burnett pitch last year it seemed to be the same issues over and over again. His control was awful, (as evidenced by the nineteen hit batsmen) he was constantly leaving balls up in the zone which translated into more extra-base hits for opposing hitters, and the release point on his pitches seemed to change from game to game. Aside from his mechanics, it was patently obvious that Burnett was psychologically reeling as well. Unlike other players on the staff like Sabathia and Pettitte, Burnett couldn't seem to shake off a bad inning or a bad game. Things just snowballed until he was eventually left off the playoff roster for the ALCS.

To be fair, much like lawyer television commercials, past results do not guarantee future outcomes. However, Baseball Reference and Mike Jaggers-Radolf of Yankeeist may be able to put Burnett's future numbers somewhere--eh em--in the ballpark. Although BR has three main similarity scores for a player, the most vital and relevant is the one that measures players who have similar career totals, not for their entire careers, but up to the current age of the active player. (AJ in this case has just turned 34). Any score over 950 is considered a close match with 1000 being a perfect match.

The results are not heartening.

Pete Harnisch is the closest with the rating of 967. That is terrifying considering that Harnisch's age thirty-four season was also his last season, where he posted a career worst ERA+ of 73. His unpredictability, inconsistency, and injuries also eerily mimic those of Burnett's. The year pitcher Ken Hill turned thirty-three he also posted numbers similar to Burnett's but at age thirty-four had a career low 81.2 innings pitched and an ERA+ of 71. By thirty-six he was out of baseball. Even current Milwaukee Brewer Randy Wolf mirrors AJ Burnett's stats. Both are of the same age, had seasons where they regressed in 2010, and had injury problems.

Perhaps the Yankees had Burnett firmly in mind when they fired pitching coach Dave Eiland last November. At thirty-four and with the deck stacked against him, Burnett has one hell of a task on his hand. Let's hope new pitching coach Larry Rothschild is up to the challenge. It's not going to be easy. After all, he's got a whole coop full of chicken feces to turn into sandwich spread by April.

Cashman Considers a Second Crack at Pavano?

Yes, Carl.  We're just as confused by the news as you are...

UPDATE (1/19/2011 at 2:25 p.m.):  According to WFAN, the Yankees offered Carl Pavano a one year deal worth $10M plus incentives.  Did the Yankees forget how bad the Carl Pavano era was?  I'm asking a serious question.  That's the only reasonable explanation I'm willing to accept.


Original Post (1/19/2011 at 2:12 p.m.):  There's more news on Carl Pavano, and this one will probably scare the crap out of Yankee fans everywhere.  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees had "several discussions" with Carl Pavano.

"Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters Wednesday that he had “several discussions” with the agent for free-agent right-hander Carl Pavano, who endured four trying seasons in New York from 2005 to ’08.  Pavano, in turn, seriously considered returning to the Yankees, according to major-league sources, even telling friends at one point that he intended to rejoin the team.  The Yankees explored a one-year deal with Pavano at a high salary, sources said. The talks fizzled when the Twins guaranteed Pavano a second year - an important consideration for a pitcher who is 35."

Yankee fans can rest easy knowing their worst nightmare was avoided simply because the Twins decided to add a second year.  Crisis averted.

Don't 'Brett Favre' Me, Bro!

Yankees General Manager has but one small request to Andy Pettitte, "Don't Brett Favre us."

"He’s opting not to play right now but that might change it might not. I told him don’t ‘Brett Favre’ us. You got to be all in and fully dedicated to play. Do I need him? I need him, but I don’t want him to play if his heart’s not in it.”

As much as I love the newly coined phrase "Don't Brett Favre us," wouldn't "Don't Roger Clemens us" be more appropriate?  Clemens was jerking around teams long before Brett Favre.  If anyone deserves that dishonorable distinction, it's Clemens.

Also, I don't think Pettitte is 'Brett Favre-ing' the Yankees.  He's been considering retirement for a few years now, and it looks like he's finally ready to give it the old college try.  It's possible that he'll get the itch to play sometime in late March or early April, but he and the Yankees will cross that bridge if and when that happens.  He's done the right thing by informing the Yankees that he doesn't plan on starting the 2011 season in uniform.  That's the difference between Favre/Clemens and Pettitte.  Pettitte is man enough to tell his team to move on without him, regardless of the potential consequences.

Yankees Considering Millwood, Garcia

Considering the lack of talent remaining on the free agent and trade markets, we all knew it would come to this. 

“The Yankees among the teams looking at Kevin Millwood as a back-end starter and have also looked at Freddy Garcia.”

Talk about scraping the bottom of the barrel. 

Last season, Millwood was absolutely brutal for the Orioles going 4-16 with a 4.86 FIP (5.10 ERA) and 1.3 fWAR.  With most of his key peripherals (GB/FB ratio, contact rate, strikeout rate) trending in the wrong direction, there’s not a lot of hope for him turning it around in his age-36 season.  Still, Millwood is a solid innings eater that can be relied upon to pitch between 170-190 innings next year, while providing 1-2 wins above the replacement level. 

Freddy Garcia, despite a shiny 12-6 record, put together a season on par with Millwood’s posting a 4.77 FIP, 1.3 fWAR, and similar K/9 and BB/9 rates.  Unlike Millwood, Garcia, 34, can’t be considered a solid innings eater.  After enduring a few shoulder injuries and disappointing comeback attempts, 2010 was the first time Garcia had exceeded the 150 innings mark since 2006.  Additionally, Garcia has always been the type of pitcher that relies on his strong secondary pitches as opposed to his fastball.  As such, he has a tendency to hang the ball up in the zone, which leads to higher than expected home run totals.  That trend has become more pronounced as his batted ball numbers have skewed more towards fly balls in recent seasons.  As a right-handed fly ball pitcher, he’ll likely have trouble limiting home runs in lefty friendly ballparks (like Yankees Stadium), or against lefty-heavy lineups (like the Red Sox).   

If I had to choose between the two pitchers, I would probably go with Millwood because he’s more durable, and has a better track record of keeping the ball inside the park.  Also, he’d serve as a considerable upgrade over Sergio Mitre, who is a replacement level starter at best.  It’s not an ideal situation, but it could end up being a shrewd move for the Yankees depending on the type of contract Millwood demands.

Jones, Yankees Close to a Deal

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Yankees and Andrew Jones are "nearing a one year deal" with the Yankees.  Currently, there's no word on how much Jones would make under the potential new deal. 

As I mentioned yesterday, Jones would be a pretty solid fit for the Yankees.  First of all, the Yankees are very lefty-heavy in terms of their current stable of outfielders.  Jones, as a right-hander, would provide a solid alternative off of the bench that can play either of the corner outfield positions at a league average level.  Secondly, Jones would be a solid option to serve as the right-handed platoon partner to Jorge Posada at DH.  Last season, Jones hit lefties to the tune of .256/.373/.558.  If the Yankees decide to pull the trigger on the deal (no guarantee at this point), Jones should be able to accumulate between 250-350 plate appearances in playing time. 

Last season for the White Sox, Jones produced a .364 wOBA with 19 home runs, and 1.8 wins above the replacement level. 

Is Jesus Montero the New Savior in New York?

There's an old saying in baseball that prospects get you fired. I disagree. Rather I think trading away potential prospects gets you fired. If you are in the front office of a major league team, your evaluation of talent better be exemplary. And if you are the general manager for the New York Yankees it better be damn near perfect. Brian Cashman made the bold proclamation several weeks ago that the Yankees #1 minor league prospect Jesus Montero was not going to be involved in any trade discussions. (Although he did hedge his bets recently.)

In any case, Cashman absolutely made the right choice by not letting the young Venezuelan catcher get away. I hate to ever say that a prospect is a "can't miss" player, but on paper Montero looks like a future All-Star. Pre-2010 Baseball America listed him as the #4 prospect in the minor leagues. His minor league numbers have been phenomenal. Last year at Scranton Wilkes-Barre he hit 21 HR, drove in 75, scored 66 runs, smacked 34 doubles, and had a respectable .289 average for a catcher. The stat that really jumps off the page though was his SLG which was an impressive .517.

What is even scarier is that the Yankee scouts indicate Montero is just now really starting to develop his power. Furthermore, he's a player that can spray the ball to all parts of the field and has opposite field power. At only 21 years old, it is likely that minus a few growing pains, his power numbers will continue to develop. With Yankee stars A-Rod and Mark Texiera moving into their late and middle thirties over the next few years, it is not a stretch to assume that Montero will one day be hitting in the middle of the lineup.

The one knock against Montero is his defense. At 6' 4" and 225 lbs, Montero has a much larger build than the prototypical catcher, a position that normally demands a more compact body. While his fielding percentage last year was good at .992, he had 15 passed balls and six errors. By all accounts however his defense has come a long way and he continues to improve with each passing year. Regardless, Brian Cashman has already publicly stated that Montero will get a chance to compete for the starting position in 2011.

Moreover, I think Montero needs to compete for the starting position, not so much for his self-confidence (although that is a factor) but mostly because the Yankees are in desperate need of a strong catcher. Jorge Posada has started at catcher in only 194 out of the 486 games he's appeared in since 2007 and his defensive WAR is a pathetic -1.1. Not that Posada was ever very good at throwing runners out, but at this point in his career he couldn't throw Kirstie Alley out trying to steal second with a truckload of Hagen Das on her back. Also at 40 years old his knees are not going to hold up and his power numbers continue to drop. More than likely he will be used as a DH for the majority of the 2011 season. Thankfully this is the last year of his contract and hopefully of his career.

An analysis of the other two catchers on the Yankees depth chart bodes even better for Montero's chances. First there is Francisco Cervelli the Yankees spot starter at catcher over the last few years. With a defensive WAR of -.9 and precisely 0 HR last year, it is safe to say that Montero could provide better numbers if given the chance to be a full time starter. Then of course there was the Yankees offseason acquisition of Russell Martin from the Dodgers. He's not exactly setting the world on fire either. In the last two years Martin has accumulated only 32 doubles and 12 HR with a batting average right around .250. (To be fair part of that was due to injuries.) However, he did only have five passed balls last year and he threw out batters almost 40% of the time. The defensive ability is obviously there.

However, I think the Yankees would best be served in letting Montero catch at least half the time in 2011 assuming he makes the team. Not only would it give the young catcher a chance to improve his defensive skills and expose himself to big league pitching, it will also give the Yankees a better idea if Montero should remain at catcher. Considering the incumbents challenging Montero, I'd say the odds are better than 50% that he wins the everyday job at catcher.

Regarding playing catcher in the majors Montero has stated, "I want to be a catcher. I love to catch. I like to be a catcher. I like to be in the middle of the game. I mean it's my position. I want to play my position."

At this point the Yankees just want him on the team. As to what position that will be...well...only God knows for sure.

Yankees Take Long Look at Jones

According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Yankees have stepped up their pursuit for Andruw Jones.  

Throughout the offseason, the Yankees have been tied to Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, among others.  Ramirez never made a lot of sense for the Yankees.  While he still carries a solid bat, Manny is a terrible defensive outfielder that would be limited to playing the expansive Yankee Stadium left field--when he was allowed to play the field.

Johnny Damon didn't make a lot of sense either.  His bat is in decline; his defensive range is virtually non-existent; and he's left-handed.  Considering that all three of the Yankees outfielders hit left-handed, you can see how signing him wouldn't make a lot of sense. 

Signing Jones makes a lot of sense.  He's right handed, hits with power, and still carries a decent glove.  While Jones, 33, is not the feared hitter he was five years ago, he's still a productive player.   Also, he's likely to be a lot cheaper; will require fewer plate appearances than either Damon or Ramirez; and comes without some of the clubhouse baggage that's followed them (primarily Ramirez). 

In 328 plate appearances with the White Sox last season, Jones put up a .364 wOBA with 19 home runs and provided 1.8 wins above the replacement level. 

Joba to the Rescue?

With Andy Pettitte on the cusp of retirement, and Rafael Soriano holding down the eighth inning duties for at least the 2011 season Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues poses a very interesting question:  Should the Yankees move Joba Chamberlain back into the rotation? 

"What they don’t have is any decent help for the back of the rotation. Signing Soriano doesn’t help the rotation at all, Sergio Mitre can still stink up the first five innings just as easily as he could have before. Will they take this opportunity to move Joba back to the rotation, turning an absurd contract for a reliever into actual help for the starting staff? I doubt it, and that’s what annoys the crap out of me.

(snip)

I’m not asking for a miracle here, just give the guy a chance to start again in Spring Training. There’s basically no downside. If he gets hurt and his days as an effective pitcher come to an end, who cares? All the Yankees would be losing is a seventh inning reliever. If it works, well then geez, you’ve got yourself a young big league starter, something the team could really use right about now. It’s Spring Training, just try it. That’s all I’m asking. Just make an effort, give him the same kind of rope they gave Hughes this past year."

He makes an excellent point.  What do the Yankees have to lose?  With Pettitte announcing that he will not start the 2011 season playing baseball, the Yankees are left with a rotation that includes Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre at the four and five spots.  I think it's safe to say that this is not the idea situation for any team that plans on contending during the 2011 season.

Nova, 24, was recently named the number seven prospect in the Yankees system by John Sickels.  While Sickels calls him a "competent fourth starter," I'm not entirely convinced.  His minor league peripherals are underwhelming.  Without a true plus pitch (his fastball flashes plus and his change up could become a plus offering in the future), I don't see any reason to believe that his peripherals will translate any better in the major leagues.  The outlook isn't all bad.  Nova induces a high amount of ground balls, which is a very attractive asset.  Considering his ground ball tendencies, he can probably get by on a strikeout rate around six per nine innings, but he'll have to cut his walk rate by a third in order to be effective long-term.  He's still young, so he still has some time to develop into a bonafide major league starting pitcher.  He may end up being a four, but for the time being, he's probably better suited at the five.

Mitre, 29, is a fringe number five starter that wouldn't crack most major league rotations.  While he consistently produces a ground ball rate above 50%, he tends to struggle due to a low strikeout rate and below average walk rate.  He's very predictable in his pitch selection, and primarily throws his sinking two seam fastball.  Despite his ability to induce ground balls, it's largely ineffective, typically producing negative run values on Fangraph's pitch type value metric.  He's probably best suited to be a long reliever or a AAA arm in waiting on a team like the Yankees.

That brings us back to Joba Chamberlain.  Just a couple of years ago, many scouts and Yankee insiders were touting Joba as a future ace.  With tremendous stuff and great peripherals, it was only a matter of time.  Has his stuff and peripherals matched his ERA performance?  No, but such is the life of a relief pitcher.  ERA fluctuates due to random events and the luck dragon.  During his first 34 starts between 2008 and 2009 (prior to getting jerked around by the Joba Rules), he produced a 3.97 FIP, 8.5 K/9, and 3.84 uIBB/9 line.  While that might be front of the rotation quality at the time, it was certainly more than serviceable.  At the very least, it's a significantly better line than you could expect out of either Nova or Mitre.  In the nine starts afterward, Joba's performance cratered.  This is when the Joba Rules kicked into place.  From that point on, the Yankees jerked him around, varied his rest time in between starts, and put strict pitch counts on each of his starts.  I don't know about you, but I don't know of many pitchers that would pitch well under those types of circumstances.

As Mike pointed out in his article, does it really hurt to give him a chance to start during Spring Training?  Absolutely not.  If he falls flat on his face, the Yankees can always move him back to the bullpen as their seventh inning set-up man.  If he succeeds, the Yankees have a viable option at the four spot for the entire 2011 season.  Will they have to limit his innings?  Yes, but that's not the point.  The point is that they won't have to endure an entire season of watching Sergio Mitre take the ball every fifth day.  Plus, in 2012, they'll have a fully stretched out Chamberlain that might be ready to take the third spot in the rotation, allowing Burnett to move to the four.  There's just too much upside in moving him to the rotation that it baffles me that the Yankee front office doesn't see the benefit.  What do they have to lose?

Soriano Nets Three Years from Yanks

According to SI’s Jon Heyman, the Yankees and relief ace Rafael Soriano have agreed to terms on a three year deal worth $35M.  ESPN New York provided more of the details:

“Soriano has player options after the first and second years of the deal, according to the source. In the first year, Soriano will receive $10 million and get an additional $1.5 million if he opts out. In the second year, he'll receive $11 million and an additional $1.5 million if he opts out. He'll get $14 million in the third year of his contract.

An official said the player options were the Yankees' idea because they wanted Soriano to be comfortable. At least one official in the organization thinks they have the best bullpen in baseball.

Soriano's contract does not include a no-trade clause, a source told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.”

I guess I should start out by apologizing to Heyman.  It turns out he wasn’t full of crap on this one.  What can I say?  As Scott Boras’s personal hand puppet, it was only natural to assume that Heyman was trying to trying to stimulate interest for Boras’s last high profile client.  I was wrong.  Instead, it was Brian Cashman who was playing a little game of misdirection.  I guess holding on to their first round draft pick wasn’t really that important after all. 

There are a couple of important things I want to note about this deal.  One, the Yankees now have the best late inning relief tandem in baseball.  With the eighth and ninth innings officially on lock down, opposing teams are now faced with the reality that they’re essentially playing a seven inning game every time they face the Yankees.  That’s a huge psychological advantage.  Additionally, the Yankees now have a great insurnance option to close games should Rivera either get injured or need some additional rest between appearances. 

Two, Soriano’s deal includes opt out clauses after the 2011 and 2012 seasons.  Considering how weak the next free agent class has the potential to be (excluding Pujols and Fielder), it wouldn’t surprise me to see Soriano opt after this season; especially, if he puts together another season on par with his 2009 and 2010 seasons.  At 31 years old, Soriano has a limited window in which to maximize his earnings.  While three years and $35M is a record breaking contract for a set-up man, Soriano doesn’t see himself in that light.  He sees himself as a closer, and rightly so.  If Soriano completes his three year deal, he will enter the 2013 free agent market as a 34 year old pitcher who is likely in decline.  In all likelihood, he would have very few multi-year offers (if any), and he would probably have to take a pay cut.  By opting out of his contract after the season, he’ll re-enter the free agent market two years younger; therefore, he’d be more likely to (really) break the bank as the top reliever available.

It will be really interesting to see how this situation unfolds.  Soriano opting out could have a major affect on the market for Jonathan Papelbon during the 2011-2012 offseason.  Papelbon has long expressed his desire to set the high water mark for closer contracts.  Considering his recent struggles, and the potential for Soriano to hit the market, Papelbon might find himself having to lower his long-term contract expectations.  It would not surprise me to see him stuck in Soriano’s position next year.