Mystery Team Unveiled

As Cliff Lee's world turns...

The mystery team surrounding the Cliff Lee negotiations just won't go away.  Now, thanks to ESPN's Jayson Stark and Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal the mystery team has finally been identified.  Earlier in the day, Stark tweeted that he thought no team "fits profile of Cliff Lee's mystery team more than the Phillies."  While this was an interesting idea, the rumor was not only unconfirmed, but a bit implausible.  Then, Rosenthal confirmed the rumor. 

The Phillies are still bidding for free-agent left-hander Cliff Lee, according to a source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

The extent of the Phillies’ involvement is not known, but as of 6:30 p.m. ET Monday, the source described them as “not out.” 

This is certainly a very interesting and unexpected development.  The Phillies were very interested in re-singing Cliff Lee last offseason before it became clear he was determined to become a free agent after the 2010 season.  Knowing how much he would command on the open market (and not wanting him to leave without compensation), the Phillies traded for former Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay and simultaneously traded Lee to the Mariners.  Now, it appears that they're interested yet again.

The problem the Phillies are going to have is that they need to clear a significant amount of payroll to fit Lee on the roster.   According to Cots Baseball Contracts, the Phillies already have $146.8M committed to 18 players, which includes $56M to their top four starting pitchers.  To sign Lee, the Phillies would have probably have to move LF Raul Ibanez and SP Joe Blanton.  This isn't going to be easy.

As I've mentioned before, Ibanez is entering his age-39 season, and has exhibited declining a skill set on offensive, defensive, and the base paths.  My early projections have Ibanez being worth 1.5 WAR next season, or $7.5M (marginal value of -$4.5M).  Finding a trade partner for the left fielder is going to be tough.  Finding a trade partner willing to absorb his entire $12M salary is going to be nearly impossible.  Then again, never say never.  Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti are always willing to take on overpriced veterans.

Joe Blanton should be a lot easier to move.  He's going into his age-30 season next year, and has shown marked improvements in his control and strikeout numbers over the last two seasons.  Yes, he's had trouble with the long ball in the pinball machine known as Citizen's Bank Park, but who hasn't.  Moving him out of Philly to a neutral park could be just what the doctor ordered for Blanton.  With the starting pitching market being rather thin right now (Lee and Pavano are the best starters available), there are plenty of teams looking to make trades.  The Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Brewers, and Angels have all been linked to rumors involving trading for a starting pitcher.  Blanton fits the bill of the classic number four starter that most teams need in order to be serious playoff contenders.  While Blanton's salary of $10.5M for 2011 might seem a bit high, it's not.  With the average cost of a win on the free agent market averaging $5M/win, Blanton would need to be roughly a 2.0 win pitcher in 2011 to justify his salary.  In the last three seasons, Blanton's been worth 2.1, 2.0, and 1.9 WAR respectively.  Considering he hasn't seen any decline in his control or his "stuff," he seems like a great bet to be at least a 2.0 WAR pitcher next season.  Plus, Blanton is signed for the next two years, so it's not like he'd be a one year rental. 

If the Phillies are successful in unloading both players (highly unlikely), they would clear roughly $23M in salary, which coincidentally happens to be the annual average salary the Yankees are reported to have recently offered Lee.  Considering the long term investments the Phillies have committed themselves to (Howard, Utley, Halladay, etc.), I'd have to imagine the Phillies would prefer to sign him to a deal that is much shorter than seven years.  A deal of five years appears to be the minimum Lee and Bruanecker would consider.  With Lee receiving a seven year deal from the Yankees, and a six year deal (with a seventh year option) from the Rangers, the Phillies would likely have to top both teams in terms of average annual salary.  To be serious contenders, the Phillies would likely need to offer 5 years $125M just to be considered.  There's no word on whether Phillies GM Ruben Amaro would be willing to make that kind of offer, but considering some of the other contracts he's given out in recent years, I wouldn't be surprised.

If the Phillies somehow pull this signing off, it would be quite a coup.  With Halladay and Lee as dueling aces, Oswalt as the number three, and Hamels as the number four starter, the Philles would have a rotation that was unparalleled throughout the major leagues.  Unfortunately, the Phillies window to win with this group would be fairly narrow as Lee will be 32 in 2010, Oswalt 33, and Halladay 34.  Still, it would be impressive to see them in action for just one year.

How is Ruben Amaro Still Employed?

Ruben Amaro's continued employment with the Phillies only proves my theory that corporations (of any kind) prefer mediocrity to innovation and competence.  Think I'm wrong?  If I was, Amaro never would've said this:

"Amaro, however, did bring Werth into the discussion when asked about leftfielder Raul Ibanez‘ 2010 season.

Ibanez 'was still a pretty productive player and . . . his numbers are not all that different from Jayson’s last year,' he said. What did [Ibanez] have, 83 RBIs? Jayson had 85. [Ibanez] didn’t have as many opportunities as Jayson did to drive in runs.

“Clearly, Jayson had more runs scored [106 for Werth and 75 for Ibanez] and his on-base percentage and stuff were better, but [Ibanez] had 37 doubles and five triples. . . . The difference in their production was not all that great.”

This comment is interesting for two reasons.  One, Amaro is clearly trying to save face by justifying his signing of Raul Ibanez a couple of years ago.  By attempting to prop up Ibanez's performance (while cutting down Werth's), he's proactively trying to deflect criticism from both the fans and media.  Let's be honest about all of this though.  Ibanez is in a clear state of decline, and at this point is worse than Werth in every facet of the game.  Going into his age-37 season, Ibanez will be make $13M, thus making him nearly untradeable.  Essentially, Ibanez's presence on the 2011 roster is the primary reason the Phillies won't be able to re-sign Jayson Werth.

Two, Amaro's comment shows he lacks a fundamental understanding of how runs are created.  He still views offense through the lens of run production, rather than run creation.  In his world, all of the credit for run creation is given to RBI men that drive in runs.  As I've mentioned before, this point of view is fundamentally flawed because (a) it assumes the act of driving in runs is a skill (which it's not), and (b) completely ignores the skill involved in getting on base.  Getting on base is probably the most important aspect of run creation.  If players don't get on base, the only way for a team to score is via the solo home run.  I don't think I need to tell you that this isn't the most efficient way of scoring runs. 

My favorite part about Amaro's quote is when he says, "The difference in their production was not all that great."  Just looking at offensive production, Werth created 39.9 weighted runs above average (.397 wOBA), while Ibanez created 10.1 (.341 wOBA).  Werth got on base more often, slugged for a greater average, ran the bases more effectively, and was a slightly better defender.  Using WAR as a measure of value, Werth outpace Ibanez, 5.0 to 1.8.  In other words, Werth was an All-Star quality outfielder, while Ibanez was a fringe starter.  To me, the difference in production was huge.  Then again, I'm using objective measures, while Amaro is trying to save his own ass.  If it wasn't for a massive difference in age (and race), I'd openly wonder if Ruben Amaro and Britney Spears were twins separated at birth.  They both exhibit the similar levels of baseball knowledge and questionable judgment.

So Raul Ibanez's Contract was a Bad Move for the Phillies? I'm Shocked!

 
When Raul Ibanez signed a three year $31.5M contact in December 2008, analysts in the SABR community cried shenanigans--and rightly so.  The Phillies, coming off of a semi-surprising World Series championship, had just committed a significant amount of money to a player entering his age-35 season.  SABR analysts had two primary issues with this signing.  The first was that players entering their age-35 season are usually some state of decline.  This is especially true of players, like Ibanez, who have below average base running skills, and questionable (and this is being kind) defensive skills at a corner outfield position.  The second was that the free agent market clearly shifting away from the old, slow, lumbering power hitting 1B/LF/RF/DH types in favor of younger, athletic, defensive oriented players.  Rather than allow the market to play out, the Phillies jumped on Ibanez by offering him a contract at the 2007 going rate.  Had the Phillies been patient, they probably could've gotten the discount that teams were able to get on comparable players like Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Jason Giambi.   Two years later, it's looking the SABR analysts were right.  After an All-Star quality showing in 2009 (.379 wOBA, +3.9 UZR, and a 3.9 WAR--all the best showings of his career), Ibanez struggled out of the gate and regressed back to his career norms (.341 wOBA, -6.7 UZR, 1.8 WAR).  Obviously, this is bad news for the Phillies considering we can expect similar regression from Ibanez who will be entering his age-37 season in 2011. 

This has created an interesting dilemma for the Phillies.  Right field Jayson Werth will be a free agent this offseason.  Werth is the type of players SABR analysts and new-age front offices love.  He's good, but not great, at everything.  Werth has a very good batting eye (.367 career OBP and 12.3% career walk rate), above average power (.481 career SLG), plus defensive skills (a career +10.3 UZR/150 in the outfield), and above average base running abilities (87.5% career stolen base rate).  Essentially, he's everything that Ibanez isn't.  Seems like an easy decision for the Phillies, right?  Wrong.  The Phillies have one of the top outfield prospects in the game, Dominic Brown.  Brown has been described in some circles as a five tool player with once in a lifetime talent.  While it's likely that the "once in a lifetime talent" remark is a bit over the top, there's no denying his talent.  The Phillies hold him in such high regard that they were willing to empty their farm systems in the Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt trades just to keep from having to give up Brown.  In 2011, Brown will be given every opportunity to take hold of a starting corner outfield position.  As a result, the Phillies will likely fill Werth's impending vacancy with Brown, unless they can find a way to unload Ibanez's $12M salary.  Considering Ibanez's poor showing last season, this is unlikely.

How does Ibanez's contract play into this?  Rob Neyer says it best:

"But this all goes back to the Raul Ibanez contract, which we hated. If the Phillies hadn't signed Ibanez for $31.5 million, they'd have a little more cash available for Werth. If the Phillies hadn't signed Ibanez, they would have the perfect spot for Domonic Brown.

Instead, if they are able to re-sign Werth they'll have to either eat some of Ibanez's salary or make Brown wait another few months for an every-day job.

As usual, the real issue here isn't money. It's flexibility. When the Phillies were foolish enough to commit $31.5 million to Ibanez, they were also committing three years and 1,800 plate appearances to him. Which, even though he's played reasonably well through the first two years and 1,200 plate appearances, just never made much sense."

As usual, Rob is dead on here.  I don't advocate holding a position open for a prospect that's a couple of years away from the majors, no matter how good that player projects to be.  They're called prospects for a reason.  For every "can't miss" prospect that lives up to the hype, there are several who fall below that mark--if they make it to the majors at all.  That said, the Phillies would've been well served had they signed Ibanez (or preferably a player with a better set of skills) to a contract that kept Brown's arrival in mind.  Had they done so, the Phillies would've had enough money (and a position) to sign a 32 year old multi-skilled player that's averaged 5.0 WAR per season since 2008 (Werth).  Instead, they will be stuck with an aging (37 year old), one-dimensional player that's averaged 2.5 WAR per season since 2008 (Ibanez).  Every team has choices, and it appears the Phillies choice to go three years with Ibanez could have long term repercussions.