Lee Spurns Yankees and Rangers for Phillies

Last night, Cliff Lee shocked the baseball world.  ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported that the Phillies and Cliff Lee had agreed to terms on a 5 year 120M contract with a vesting option for a sixth season. 

This comes as a bit of a shock to those in the baseball writing community.  For the past several weeks, most of us had become lulled into the idea that the Lee sweepstakes was an exclusive two team race between the Yankees and Rangers.  Yes, there were other teams that showed interest (Red Sox, Nationals, Angels, and Tigers), but most of those rumors never went past the “kicking the tires” stage. 

SI’s Jon Heyman often spoke of a second mystery team lurking (the Red Sox were the first) in the shadows, but most of us didn’t take him seriously.  In fact, Heyman’s insistence on a mystery team became a bit of a joke, with Buster Olney, Peter Gammons, and Keith Law poking fun at his expense.  In the end, it turns out he was right all along.  Interestingly enough, he’s not the reporter who was given the scoop.  Jayson Stark first reported suspicions that the Phillies were moving on Lee, and Ken Rosenthal confirmed the report.  Still, Heyman’s role in the Phillies surprise signing can not be understated.  Heyman’s penchant reporting the involvement of a mystery team (a reputation he received through working closely with super agent Scott Boras) made him the ultimate pawn.  His wolf cries came so frequently that no one believed him.  This gave the Phillies an opportunity to fly under the radar, and steal Lee out from under the noses of the Rangers and Yankees. 

I’ve already discussed how this affects the Phillies yesterday.  The Lee signing gives them a rotation that has the potential to be historically good.  Do they have some work to do?  Absolutely.  They need to clear around $20M from their payroll, which won’t be an easy task.   So how does this affect the Yankees and Rangers?

Let’s start with the Yankees.  The Yankees made it no secret that Cliff Lee was their number one target all along.  Despite what I’d said before, the Yankees didn’t need Lee.  That said, he would’ve made the Yankees that much stronger, especially with the upgrades the Red Sox have made over the past couple of weeks.  Lee would’ve paired up with Sabathia to create a 1-2 punch that few teams (if any) would’ve been able to match.  Now, the Yankees are forced to either sign someone off of the scrap heap that is the free agent market, or make a trade.  The Yankees have been linked to Zach Greinke trade rumors, but it’s unclear whether the Yankees would be willing to part with the pieces necessary (Jesus Montero) to make the deal happen.  Also, there are questions as whether or not he’s mentally fit to pitch in New York.*  Joe Blanton, Matt Garza, James Shields, and Derek Lowe may also be available.  It’s not exactly awe inspiring, but it’s an upgrade over Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre. 

* Typically, I downplay the psychological affect, but in the case of those who have suffered from anxiety (Greinke), depression (Votto), the yips (Willis), or psychotic behavior (Bradley and Dukes), I factor it into the equation.  I can certainly see why many would be concerned about Greinke and the big market affect.

What about the Rangers?  With Cliff Lee at the front of the rotation, the Rangers rotation would’ve looked a lot better.  Without Lee, they’re without a true ace.  Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson are nice pitchers, but they’re middle of the rotation starters.  If they expect to be serious playoff contenders, the Rangers will probably need to add an ace (or near ace) quality pitcher.  Luckily for the Rangers, they have a number of options due to their deep farm system.  The most likely is they look to make a trade for one of the pitchers in the Greinke, Garza, Shields, Blanton, Lowe group (or someone else not yet rumored to be on the trading block).  Also, I fully expect the Rangers to not only go hard after Adrian Beltre, but also re-open Michael Young trade talks. 

Both teams are bringing back roughly the same teams next season.  Are they a year older?  Sure, but both teams are quality teams capable of winning 90 games.  That should be more than enough to get the Rangers the division title and the Yankees the Wild Card.  While losing out on Lee has to be incredibly disappointing for both clubs, they shouldn’t panic.  There’s plenty of time before the 2011 season starts.  The trade market has a habit of transforming throughout the offseason.   You never know who will become available come February.  Guys like Billingsley, Buehrle, and Nolasco perhaps?

Mystery Team Unveiled

As Cliff Lee's world turns...

The mystery team surrounding the Cliff Lee negotiations just won't go away.  Now, thanks to ESPN's Jayson Stark and Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal the mystery team has finally been identified.  Earlier in the day, Stark tweeted that he thought no team "fits profile of Cliff Lee's mystery team more than the Phillies."  While this was an interesting idea, the rumor was not only unconfirmed, but a bit implausible.  Then, Rosenthal confirmed the rumor. 

The Phillies are still bidding for free-agent left-hander Cliff Lee, according to a source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

The extent of the Phillies’ involvement is not known, but as of 6:30 p.m. ET Monday, the source described them as “not out.” 

This is certainly a very interesting and unexpected development.  The Phillies were very interested in re-singing Cliff Lee last offseason before it became clear he was determined to become a free agent after the 2010 season.  Knowing how much he would command on the open market (and not wanting him to leave without compensation), the Phillies traded for former Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay and simultaneously traded Lee to the Mariners.  Now, it appears that they're interested yet again.

The problem the Phillies are going to have is that they need to clear a significant amount of payroll to fit Lee on the roster.   According to Cots Baseball Contracts, the Phillies already have $146.8M committed to 18 players, which includes $56M to their top four starting pitchers.  To sign Lee, the Phillies would have probably have to move LF Raul Ibanez and SP Joe Blanton.  This isn't going to be easy.

As I've mentioned before, Ibanez is entering his age-39 season, and has exhibited declining a skill set on offensive, defensive, and the base paths.  My early projections have Ibanez being worth 1.5 WAR next season, or $7.5M (marginal value of -$4.5M).  Finding a trade partner for the left fielder is going to be tough.  Finding a trade partner willing to absorb his entire $12M salary is going to be nearly impossible.  Then again, never say never.  Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti are always willing to take on overpriced veterans.

Joe Blanton should be a lot easier to move.  He's going into his age-30 season next year, and has shown marked improvements in his control and strikeout numbers over the last two seasons.  Yes, he's had trouble with the long ball in the pinball machine known as Citizen's Bank Park, but who hasn't.  Moving him out of Philly to a neutral park could be just what the doctor ordered for Blanton.  With the starting pitching market being rather thin right now (Lee and Pavano are the best starters available), there are plenty of teams looking to make trades.  The Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Brewers, and Angels have all been linked to rumors involving trading for a starting pitcher.  Blanton fits the bill of the classic number four starter that most teams need in order to be serious playoff contenders.  While Blanton's salary of $10.5M for 2011 might seem a bit high, it's not.  With the average cost of a win on the free agent market averaging $5M/win, Blanton would need to be roughly a 2.0 win pitcher in 2011 to justify his salary.  In the last three seasons, Blanton's been worth 2.1, 2.0, and 1.9 WAR respectively.  Considering he hasn't seen any decline in his control or his "stuff," he seems like a great bet to be at least a 2.0 WAR pitcher next season.  Plus, Blanton is signed for the next two years, so it's not like he'd be a one year rental. 

If the Phillies are successful in unloading both players (highly unlikely), they would clear roughly $23M in salary, which coincidentally happens to be the annual average salary the Yankees are reported to have recently offered Lee.  Considering the long term investments the Phillies have committed themselves to (Howard, Utley, Halladay, etc.), I'd have to imagine the Phillies would prefer to sign him to a deal that is much shorter than seven years.  A deal of five years appears to be the minimum Lee and Bruanecker would consider.  With Lee receiving a seven year deal from the Yankees, and a six year deal (with a seventh year option) from the Rangers, the Phillies would likely have to top both teams in terms of average annual salary.  To be serious contenders, the Phillies would likely need to offer 5 years $125M just to be considered.  There's no word on whether Phillies GM Ruben Amaro would be willing to make that kind of offer, but considering some of the other contracts he's given out in recent years, I wouldn't be surprised.

If the Phillies somehow pull this signing off, it would be quite a coup.  With Halladay and Lee as dueling aces, Oswalt as the number three, and Hamels as the number four starter, the Philles would have a rotation that was unparalleled throughout the major leagues.  Unfortunately, the Phillies window to win with this group would be fairly narrow as Lee will be 32 in 2010, Oswalt 33, and Halladay 34.  Still, it would be impressive to see them in action for just one year.

Werth in High Demand

According to John Paul Morosi of FoxSports, Jayson Werth has multiple suitors.  The most serious of his suitors appear to be the Phillies, Red Sox, and Tigers.  The Rangers and Angels are also rumored to be interested in signing the 31 year old right fielder, but would likely only become active players if their primary targets signed with other teams.

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not sold on the idea that the Phillies are really interested in bring Werth back.  Amaro’s quote from Randy Miller’s recent article only strengthens my opinion:

"Oh, I think it's a possibility," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said by phone Thursday. "We never ruled it out. People can speculate whatever they want to speculate. We've never said we don't want to bring him back."

See what I mean?  While he says the Phillies haven’t ruled out bringing Werth back, he never goes as far as saying that bringing him back is a priority.  With every comment he makes, it feels like he’s playing along to keep up appearances and placate the fan base.  To my knowledge, there haven’t been any rumors or reports of Werth meeting with the Phillies brass to discuss a new contract.  While those meetings may occur in the near future, the absence of said rumors is the reason I question Amaro’s sincerity. 

As for the Red Sox, they met with the right fielder on Wednesday in Chicago.  The purpose of the meeting was not to exchange contract offers, but to give both parties a chance to meet and get to know each other. 

While the Red Sox are considered the favorites to sign Werth, it appears they’ve have actually made Carl Crawford their primary target with Werth being their Plan B.  This strategy is actually pretty sound.  The Red Sox know Scott Boras will probably keep Werth from signing until after Crawford signs, presumably to drive up the demand for his services.  This gives the Sox a chance to put all of their efforts into signing Crawford.  If Crawford were to sign with another team, the Red Sox can switch gears, and put all of their resources into signing Werth.

Negotiations should start to heat up next week when baseball leadership convenes for the Winter Meetings.  Werth is reportedly looking for Matt Holliday money.  In other words, he wants a six or seven year deal worth $20M per season.  This seems to be a tad excessive to me considering his age and skill set.  Werth is a very good player, but he’s not a 6-7 WAR player like Holliday.  When it’s all said and done, he’ll probably sign a five year contract worth $17-18M annually. 

Phillies Working on Deal for Carlos Quentin

Earlier today, ESPN's Jayson Stark had some new information on how the Phillies plan to fill right field if Jayson Werth were to leave via free agency:

"All you need to know is that they continue to explore numerous options for replacing Werth. They've done what one source described as "extensive" groundwork on a potential deal for the White Sox's Carlos Quentin. They remain interested in Jeff Francoeur to play against left-handers. And while they have mild interest in Jermaine Dye, that appears to be on just a back-burner, spring-training-invite level."

Ok.  Great.  So where exactly do you play Quentin?  As currently constructed, the Phillies outfield defensive alignment is Ibanez in LF, Victorino in CF, and highly touted prospect Domonic Brown in RF.  On the surface, it appears that Quentin would be slotted in as the starting RF if a trade was to be completed, thus demoting Brown back to AAA.  Brown doesn't has nothing left to prove in the minors having .327/.391/.589 between AA and AAA.  Brown's a five tool player that appears primed and ready to bust out.  Sending him back to the minors could stunt his development.

The move that makes the most sense (and also the one the Phillies will probably ignore), is to start Brown in RF, while setting up a righty/lefty platoon between Ibanez and Quentin.  The only problem with this is that it'd be an awfully expensive platoon.  (Next year, Ibanez scheduled to make $13M and Quentin projected to make between $4-5M in arbitration.)  This platoon would limit both players defensive shortcomings, while allowing maximizing their abilities to contribute offensively.  It's not an ideal situation, but it's the one that makes the most sense.

Stark's report also mentioned that the Phillies are interested in Jermaine Dye and Jeff Francoeur (yuck!), both of whom would be better candidates to be platoon with Ibanez than Quentin. 

Phillies Close to Re-Signing Contreras

Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes is reporting that the Phillies are closing in on a 2 year $5M deal with Jose Contreras.  While giving a two year deal to a soon to be 39 year old middle reliever is rather curious, the fact that the Phillies threw in a third year option AND performance incentives is even more confusing.  Contreras was one of the Phillies most effective relievers last year, putting up 9.56 K/9, 3.56 K/BB, and a 3.27 FIP. 

The problem with signing middle relievers to multi-year contracts (let alone one that's 39) is that relief pitcher performance is extremely volatile and very difficult to predict.  Due to the small sample sizes, ERA in particular can be greatly affected by defensive factors, poor luck on home runs (i.e. HR/FB rate), and/or a couple of forgettable performances.   A relief pitcher can go from being all star quality in one season to one of the worst in baseball while his performance indicators remaining largely the same.   

This appears to be another questionable move in a series of questionable moves for Ruben Amaro, Jr.  Other questionable moves include:

• Signing then 35 year old Raul Ibanez to a 3 year $31.5M deal.
• Trading Cliff Lee to Seattle after the Phillies had traded for Roy Halladay.  They had the money to keep both pitchers in uniform.  
• Signing Ryan Howard to a 5 year $125M extension when he still had another 2 years $39M remaining on his current deal.  (Howard was only a 2.0 WAR player in 2010.)
• Signing then 45 year old Jamie Moyer to a 2 year deal.  Moyer's performance during that time was slightly above replacement level.

Up to this point, Amaro's poorly thought out moves haven't adversely affected his team's performance.  Since winning the World Series in 2008, they won the National League pennant in 2009, and made it to the NLCS in 2010.  Eventually, these moves will catch up with him.  When they do, the Phillies franchise could have to go through a long term rebuilding process.

So Raul Ibanez's Contract was a Bad Move for the Phillies? I'm Shocked!

 
When Raul Ibanez signed a three year $31.5M contact in December 2008, analysts in the SABR community cried shenanigans--and rightly so.  The Phillies, coming off of a semi-surprising World Series championship, had just committed a significant amount of money to a player entering his age-35 season.  SABR analysts had two primary issues with this signing.  The first was that players entering their age-35 season are usually some state of decline.  This is especially true of players, like Ibanez, who have below average base running skills, and questionable (and this is being kind) defensive skills at a corner outfield position.  The second was that the free agent market clearly shifting away from the old, slow, lumbering power hitting 1B/LF/RF/DH types in favor of younger, athletic, defensive oriented players.  Rather than allow the market to play out, the Phillies jumped on Ibanez by offering him a contract at the 2007 going rate.  Had the Phillies been patient, they probably could've gotten the discount that teams were able to get on comparable players like Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Jason Giambi.   Two years later, it's looking the SABR analysts were right.  After an All-Star quality showing in 2009 (.379 wOBA, +3.9 UZR, and a 3.9 WAR--all the best showings of his career), Ibanez struggled out of the gate and regressed back to his career norms (.341 wOBA, -6.7 UZR, 1.8 WAR).  Obviously, this is bad news for the Phillies considering we can expect similar regression from Ibanez who will be entering his age-37 season in 2011. 

This has created an interesting dilemma for the Phillies.  Right field Jayson Werth will be a free agent this offseason.  Werth is the type of players SABR analysts and new-age front offices love.  He's good, but not great, at everything.  Werth has a very good batting eye (.367 career OBP and 12.3% career walk rate), above average power (.481 career SLG), plus defensive skills (a career +10.3 UZR/150 in the outfield), and above average base running abilities (87.5% career stolen base rate).  Essentially, he's everything that Ibanez isn't.  Seems like an easy decision for the Phillies, right?  Wrong.  The Phillies have one of the top outfield prospects in the game, Dominic Brown.  Brown has been described in some circles as a five tool player with once in a lifetime talent.  While it's likely that the "once in a lifetime talent" remark is a bit over the top, there's no denying his talent.  The Phillies hold him in such high regard that they were willing to empty their farm systems in the Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt trades just to keep from having to give up Brown.  In 2011, Brown will be given every opportunity to take hold of a starting corner outfield position.  As a result, the Phillies will likely fill Werth's impending vacancy with Brown, unless they can find a way to unload Ibanez's $12M salary.  Considering Ibanez's poor showing last season, this is unlikely.

How does Ibanez's contract play into this?  Rob Neyer says it best:

"But this all goes back to the Raul Ibanez contract, which we hated. If the Phillies hadn't signed Ibanez for $31.5 million, they'd have a little more cash available for Werth. If the Phillies hadn't signed Ibanez, they would have the perfect spot for Domonic Brown.

Instead, if they are able to re-sign Werth they'll have to either eat some of Ibanez's salary or make Brown wait another few months for an every-day job.

As usual, the real issue here isn't money. It's flexibility. When the Phillies were foolish enough to commit $31.5 million to Ibanez, they were also committing three years and 1,800 plate appearances to him. Which, even though he's played reasonably well through the first two years and 1,200 plate appearances, just never made much sense."

As usual, Rob is dead on here.  I don't advocate holding a position open for a prospect that's a couple of years away from the majors, no matter how good that player projects to be.  They're called prospects for a reason.  For every "can't miss" prospect that lives up to the hype, there are several who fall below that mark--if they make it to the majors at all.  That said, the Phillies would've been well served had they signed Ibanez (or preferably a player with a better set of skills) to a contract that kept Brown's arrival in mind.  Had they done so, the Phillies would've had enough money (and a position) to sign a 32 year old multi-skilled player that's averaged 5.0 WAR per season since 2008 (Werth).  Instead, they will be stuck with an aging (37 year old), one-dimensional player that's averaged 2.5 WAR per season since 2008 (Ibanez).  Every team has choices, and it appears the Phillies choice to go three years with Ibanez could have long term repercussions.