Morneau Resumes Baseball Activities

Twins first baseman Justin Morneau has finally resumed baseball activities.  According to Twins GM Bill Smith, he's expected to report to Spring Training along with the other position players on February 22nd.

"He's doing well," Smith said Friday. "He has begun baseball activity — hitting, fielding, throwing — and continues to work out and make good progress, so we look forward to seeing him in Fort Myers."

Morneau was putting together an MVP quality season when he took a knee to the head on July 7th.  The ensuing concussion robbed him of the rest of the season.  Since then, it's been a painstakingly slow process to get him back to the point to where he was able to resume physical activity without spiraling back into concussive symptoms. 

Considering the multitude of setbacks he's had over the past several months, it's unknown if Morneau will be ready for Opening Day on April 1st.  As a result, the Twins are taking a very conservative "day to day" approach with the ultimate goal of getting him back onto the field.   Despite their approach, the Twins are moving forward with the expectation he's in the Opening Day starting lineup.  Still, they're not expecting miracles.

If there are setbacks along the way, the Twins have some options for how they can handle the situation.  In all likelihood, the Twins would use the defensive alignment they used in the second half of last season with Cuddyer moving from RF to 1B, Kubel moving from DH to RF, and Thome taking over regular DH duties.  While this is by no means an ideal situation (especially defensively), it's still a better option than most teams would have under the same circumstances.

Twins May Be Open to Trading Liriano

Francisco Liriano is one of the most talented left-handed starting pitchers in baseball.  If last season’s performance is any indication, Liriano is on track to becoming the bonafide ace the Twins have desperately needed since they traded away Johan Santana after the 2007 season.  He does everything you could possibly want out of an ace quality starting pitcher.  He strikes out batters, limits walks, and induces ground balls at a rate exceeding 50%.  Even more impressive is Liriano’s pitch arsenal that features a plus slider that darts out of the zone (worth 60.9 runs in 549 innings); a plus tumbling change up; and an average fastball that sits 91-95 and touches 96-97.  Usually when a team has a pitcher of this caliber under their control, they do everything they can to hold on to him.   Apparently, this is not the case with the Twins. 

Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune reports that the Twins do not consider Liriano to be part of their long-term plans, and have considering the idea of trading the young All-Star.

“With six pitchers vying for five spots in the Twins starting rotation, one possible solution is trading Francisco Liriano. Speaking to team officials recently, I've been surprised how open they are to this possibility, but the logic makes sense.

(snip)

One thing is clear: The Twins don't plan to sign him long term. Last weekend, they avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.3 million deal. From what I've heard, their long-term talks went nowhere, with Liriano's camp hinting it wanted a three-year, $39 million contract.  Even if that was just a starting point for negotiations -- and to be clear, I'm not sure -- the Twins were wise to pass.”

I can see how the logic might make sense if Liriano was asking for Felix Hernandez money (five years $78M), but he’s not.  In fact, he’s asking for nearly the same contract (albeit slightly more) that Carl Pavano was seeking when free agency started this past November.  While Pavano didn’t get the three year contract he was seeking, that had more to do with his suitors’ comfort level committing to an aging pitcher for his age-35/36/37 seasons than his current talent level. 

With Liriano, 27, age isn’t a concern.  If the Twins had signed him to a three year deal this offseason, they would’ve reaped the benefits of having an ace quality pitcher locked into a team friendly contract (depending on the salary breakdown) for his age-27/28/29 seasons.  Instead, they chose to settle out of arbitration on a one year deal worth $4.3M.  The decision not to actively pursue a multi-year contract with him will likely result in further escalation of Liriano’s asking price. 

Assuming Liriano is a 5.0 WAR true talent level pitcher, we can roughly assume he’ll produce a WAR line of 5.0/4.5/4.0 (13.5 WAR) over the next three seasons.  With average cost of a win being around $5M, and assuming a yearly 5% increase in salary inflation, Liriano would likely provide between $65-70M in performance based value over that period.  If this projection comes to fruition, the Twins (and Joe Christensen) will look down right foolish for not agreeing to sign him to the three year $39M extension Liriano and his representation are reportedly seeking. 

Furthermore, Christensen calls Liriano an “injury risk,” citing both his injury history while pitching in the minors and the elbow injury he sustained during the 2006 season.  I’m not convinced his assertion is either fair, or warranted.  While it’s true Liriano had Tommy John surgery, the surgery was performed nearly five years ago.  Since he returned in 2008, he’s neither missed any starts, nor spent any time on the disabled list due to an arm injury.  While I’ll admit he took longer than expected to return to his pre-surgery form, I don’t think it was completely outside of the norm.  His struggles with command, limiting walks, and maintaining velocity are all common issues of those recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Once he regained his command and velocity, his performance rebounded strongly as a result. 

Christensen goes on to make a few lazy and poorly considered observations.  For starters, he cites struggles in two unconnected starts as reasons to criticize Liriano’s failure to perform in big situations.  The first start he discussed was, in his words, the “much hyped showdown with Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez.”  What Christensen fails to recognize is that the showdown he speaks of, didn’t exist.  Liriano wasn’t pitching against Jimenez.  He was pitching against the Colorado Rockies lineup.  In fact, that matchup was a home game for the Twins, so neither pitcher batted.  While it was certainly disappointing to see Liriano give up three runs (all earned) in the first inning, he managed to pitch six scoreless innings thereafter, while putting up a game score of 58.  We shouldn’t be holding him full responsible for the Twins loss that day.  After all, the line-up only provided one run of support in a 5-1 loss.  Additionally, this was an interleague game in mid-June against a team that finished 83-79.  It was hardly a high leverage moment. 

The second start in question was Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees.  For the first five innings, Liriano pitched masterfully, shutting out the Bronx Bombers.  In the sixth inning, he fell apart by allowing four runs in 2/3 innings.  While his performance was disappointing, he left the game down 4-3; the Twins tied it up in the bottom half of that inning.  Again, holding him responsible for the playoff loss is pretty unfair.  After he left the game, RP Jesse Crain allowed two runs to give the Yankees a 6-4 lead.  The Yankees never relinquished the lead, and took Game 1.  While Liriano certainly contributed to the Game 1 loss, Jesse Crain and the other 14 players involved in that game also contributed to the loss.

Christensen later goes onto criticize Liriano for not finishing the eighth inning in any of his final 20 starts.  First of all, I feel compelled to point out that Liriano actually did finish the eighth inning in one of his final 20 starts.  It was the final 19 starts in which he didn’t finish the eighth.  I know I’m splitting hairs, but this is my blog.  I can do as I please.  Secondly, it wasn’t his choice to get pulled out of the game.  It was Ron Gardenhire’s decision.  I’m not surprised either.  The Twins were blessed with an unbelievably deep bullpen, especially in August and September, and Liriano didn’t need to pitch beyond the eighth inning.  Furthermore, while Liriano didn’t meet Christensen’s arbitrary eight inning limit over his final 19 starts, he did meet or exceed the seven inning limit nine times, and the six inning limit an additional two times.  He’s not one that I would consider to be a workhorse, but he certainly put in his share of longer starts.

The Twins are making a big mistake if they’re honestly not interested in retaining Liriano long-term.  With his command and velocity returning to his pre-surgery levels, there’s no reason to believe his 2010 season was a fluke.  Liriano is a fantastic pitcher.  True ace quality pitchers aren’t easy to come by, and the Twins need to lock him up immediately.  A three year $39M contract for a pitcher of his caliber is a steal, and they’d be a fool not to jump at that opportunity.

Morneau Hasn't Resumed Baseball Activities

While Justin Morneau has started working out, he's yet to resume baseball activities.

The Twins are still optimistic that Morneau will be ready for Opening Day, but Smith continues to call his rehab "a work in progress." "We have pledged patience, and we only want him to go when he's ready," said Smith. "If that's March 1, April 1 or July 1, that's what it will be. We only want him to go through this one time. We don't want this to become a roller coaster."

Concussions are funny.  Some people recover within days, while others take months.  For Morneau, it's been months.  We're still two weeks out from Spring Training officially starting, so there's no reason to panic just yet.  Still, I hope he comes back soon.  The Twins are a much better team with him in the lineup and on the field.

Morneau to Resume Baseball Activities in February

According to Twins GM Bill Smith, first baseman Justin Morneau  has started working out, and should be ready to swing a bat by February 1st.

"Well he called the other day and I had a great talk with him.  I hadn’t talked with him in probably a month and he told me that he has had a real good week of workouts.  He said he pushed it, I think he said - this was Monday night - so he said on Friday he pushed it about as hard as he can in any workout and he didn’t have any problems.  And that’s a great thing for us."

This is great news for the Twins.  Last season, Morneau was having an MVP quality season when a concussion derailed his (and one of my fantasy baseball teams) season just prior to the All-Star break.  Typically, players return fairly quickly (anywhere from 2-4 weeks) from concussions.  Unfortunately for Morneau and the Twins, his symptoms persisted, and he never made back on to the field.  After several months of recovery, Morneau appears to be on the "up-and-up" and on the verge of resuming baseball activities a few weeks ahead of schedule. 

Usually, teams have trouble replacing a player that produced a .447 wOBA and 5.3 WAR in 81 games, but not the Twins.  Instead, they made the appropriate adjustments, put up a 48-32 record over the course of the rest of the season, and surpassed the White Sox and Tigers to secure their sixth division title nine years.  Still, even with the success they had last season without Morneau, the Twins are a much better team with him both in the lineup and on the field.  Their second half performance was largely unsustainable when you consider that (a) the replacement defensive alignment the Twins sent out to the field was simply atrocious, and (b) the Twins received huge offensive production out of 40 year old slugger Jim Thome, who likely will not give an encore performance in 2011.

Hopefully, Morneau continues to recover as expected.  With him in the lineup, the Twins will be the odds on favorite to secure their seventh division title in ten years.  If he's not, they might end up being a 75-80 win team.

Pavano, Twins Finally Come to Terms

FINALLY!  It's official.  Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune reports that the Twins and Carl Pavano have finally come to terms on a two year contract that will pay him $16.5M.  There's nothing new for me to add that I haven't already said at least 1000 times already, so I won't bore you my regurgitated anecdotes.  The long, national nightmare is finally over. 

Ugh.  I can't believe I've written three posts today about Carl freaking Pavano.  I feel like I need a shower...

Almost There...

I know exactly how you feel Carl.  Now, SIGN ALREADY!

Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune provided an update on the long, drawn out, torturous negotiations between Carl Pavano and the Twins.

#Twins and Pavano are very close to a new deal, working on final details. Bill Smith said today, "I think we're in the home stretch here."

Oh my god!  Seriously?  Will this ever end?  They've been "close" for about a month now!  I know it's going to happen at some point, but come on.  Yes, that's right.  That's all I have left to say:  "Come on."  Pavano better break the bank on this one.  Otherwise, I'm going to be pissed.

Luckily, we have incomparable Craig Calcaterra to provide a little bit of humor to the situation.  Thankfully, he provided this amusing, yet oddly irritating video that will have you both laughing and ready to throw your computer at the wall.  You have to watch the whole thing to get the full effect, so don't give up half way through the video.  Enjoy!

Carl Pavano Update

For the last couple of weeks, everyone thought Pavano had two serious suitors:  the Twins and Nationals.  Then, earlier this week, Tom Boswell of the Washington Post reported that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told him that they weren't even talking to Pavano's people.

I hear we are “the finalist” along with the Twins. We’ve never spoken to Pavano and we haven’t talked to his agent since the winter meetings.

Interesting.  I'm not sure if he's trying to save face here, but it does explain why there haven't been any reports about meetings being held or offers being made to Pavano  Plus, despite the Nationals obvious need for starting pitching, I never really understood how Pavano fit into their plans.  If you're going to sign a 35 year old pitcher like Pavano, you should do it to add depth to the middle or back end of your rotation.  The Nats would be signing him to front their rotation.  While Pavano is good enough to serve as the staff ace on a non-contender, it doesn't make any sense to sign him based on the contract he's demanding.  The Nationals will not be a contender by the time his contract expires, so it's probably smarter for them to save up their money for a talent that will have greater long-term impact.

In other Pavano news...

According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, Carl Pavano could finally make a decision about the Twins offer by Monday or Tuesday...or three weeks from now.  Who knows really?  These negotiations have been moving at a snail's pace, and it's not like he's fielding several others.  On January 6th, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweeted that the Twins "were closing in on Pavano."  That was nine days ago.  Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI tweeted that a Twins "deal could happen any day now."  Thanks for the info Heyman, but I'll believe it when I see it. 

I know the deal is inevitable, but there's no reason why it should be taking so long.  Part of me wonders if Pavano's team is stringing this along in hopes that another team will get involved, thus forcing the Twins to improve their offer.  It's not going to happen.  There just aren't a lot of teams interested in signing an oft-injured, 35 year old pitcher to a multi-year deal.

Thome Re-Signs with Twins for $3M

UPDATE (1/15/2011 at 2:07 p.m.):  Ken Rosenthal reports that Thome turned down $4M in guaranteed money from the Rangers to return to Minnesota.  While it is a little bit surprising to that he turned down $1M, Thome really seemed to enjoy playing for the Twins last season.  Plus, it also doesn't hurt that the twin cities are closer in proximity to his home in Chicago than Arlington.

Original Post (1/14/2011 at 9:49 p.m.):  The list of available aging DH-type sluggers just got smaller.

According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, Jim Thome has agreed to a one year $3M contract to remain with the Minnesota Twins.  Thome stands to earn up to an additional $3M in performance based incentives if he reaches certain thresholds.

While this appears to be a good signing for both parties, I'm not sure what role Thome will play for the Twins in 2011.  During the first half of the season, he served primarily as a bat off of the bench, and received the occasional start at DH against right handed pitchers.  When starting first baseman Justin Morneau went down with a concussion prior to the All-Star break, he thrust into the role of starting DH.*  Boy, did he deliver.  Channeling his youth, Thome produced an unbelievable .437 wOBA in 340 plate appearances.  His .627 slugging percentage was his highest since he slugged .677 for the Indians in 2002.   Keep in mind that he did this at age-40, while playing half of his games at Target Field, the toughest park in which to hit a home run in 2010.  What he did in 2010 was nothing short of astounding.

* As a result Jason Kubel from DH to RF and Michael Cuddyer from RF to 1B in one of the worst defensive shifts in the history of baseball.

As Rob Neyer pointed out in his column earlier today, it's unlikely Thome repeats his 2010 performance in 2011.  After doing a quick search on Baseball Reference's Play Index, he found there were only nine players in the history of the game between the ages 38-40 who accumulated between 300-400 plate appearances and produced isolated power (ISO) numbers of at least .200.  Nine.  That's it.  Among those players were Aaron, Musial, Ripken, Larry Walker, and Moises Alou.  That's a pretty solid group.  Despite all of that talent, none of those players were able to produce an encore performance worthy of meeting the above criteria.  Why?  It's really tough to do at that age.  Hell, it's really tough to do at any age.  Thome essentially caught lightning in a bottle, and rode it all season long.

Thome finished the 2010 season 11 home runs shy of 600 home runs.  With Morneau presumably healthy and on pace to return to action, it appears that Thome is the odd man out in terms of playing time.  Still, considering his proximity to a major career milestone, and his exceptional performance in 2010, I have a feeling Twins manager Ron Gardenhire will be as creative as possible to get Thome a sizable number of plate appearances.

Explaining my Disdain for the Twins

Before I start discussing the Twins, let me do a little housekeeping in response to the comments posted following our humble little blogs brush with fame. Thanks for the shout out, Craig Calcaterra. First, Oliver Perez is a part of the Mets rotation whether he throws a pitch or not this season. His 12 million dollar salary affects the rotation in two significant ways. Primarily, it means that Mets management will give him chance after chance as they have over the past few seasons despite the fact that he bought Daniel Cabrera's fastball command on eBay sometime in 2008. There is a better than 50 percent chance that they give him one more spin this year to try to recover some value from what amounts to a sunk cost. Secondarily, the 12 million spent on Perez cannot be spent on a useful arm to buttress the back of the staff leading to a minimum of 30 starts combined for players like Dillon Gee, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano.

Second of all, I stand by the Glenn Beck comment. I am neither a Republican nor a Democrat and I have not voted in the past few elections. My issue with Beck is not based in his political beliefs but in the over the top, sophomoric, and intellectually stilted way that he and many others from both sides of the aisle choose to perform when they are given the public airways and consciousness. I simply expect better from political discourse.

Third of all, I love the potential future of the Orioles' rotation as much as anyone. However, this list deals with 2011 only and in 2011 Brandon Erbe and Zach Britton are less likely to factor into the equation. Also, I stand by my condemnation of Chris Tillman. While I acknowledge his youth, I can't look past a 1:1 K/BB ratio, 91.5% contact rate, 6.3 swinging strike percentage, and 15% HR/FB ratio over the past few seasons. Tillman posted a 5.87 era and a 5.89 FIP despite a BABIP of .259. His future may turn out bright but his present is not likely to any time this season.

P.S. The Jim Abbott joke was flawed by the fact that in my memory he was a righty. Next time, I will take the two seconds to check Google images.

I have read Chip's well thought and composed argument in favor of the Twins rotation along with those left in the comments section. I am not too stuck in my ways to admit when I am wrong but I feel like if I am wrong it is only a matter of a few spots, not many more than it would take to remove them from the list. There are a couple very significant issues with this rotation that I think keep it down in the bottom 10 or 12 in the league. These issues include likelihood of injury and the team's tendency to pitch to contact. I will be doing all discussion in this post presuming that Carl Pavano will not be a member of the 2011 Twins despite rumors to the contrary. Until the pen hits the paper, Nick Blackburn is still an integral part of the rotation.

Pitching injuries are the 2ND certainty in baseball, the first of course being that Brian Sabean will fall in love with and sign at least one player over 34 every off season. The Twins rotation has dealt with this certainty over the past few years. Francisco Liriano has been healthy for only 3 of the past 5 seasons and was only effective for two of those. Kevin Slowey has yet to break the 30 start or 175 inning marks in any of his first 3 seasons. Brian Duensing has yet to crack 130 innings pitched in either of his first two seasons making very unlikely that he can be counted upon for more than 160 to 180 innings this year. The innings deficit created by injuries likely to occur coupled with Duensing's inability to go deep in many games will put undue stress on the Twins bullpen. The best way to counteract the uncertainty of injury is to stockpile as many major league startable arms as is possible. The Twins have a dearth of promotable starting pitchers in their minor league system unless they are willing to rush Kyle Gibson. This leaves players like Glen Perkins to pick up the slack if anyone should fall out of the rotation.

Whatever we all feel about the Twins rotation, all sabermetrically inclined readers can agree that the outfield defense for the Twins is one step above that of your average beer league softball team, with the caveat that the Twins don't get to use the extra outfielder. Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span make every flyball to an outfield corner an adventure, as evidenced by their combined -29.3 UZR/150 last year. Chip offered copious evidence for the effect of the defense upon the results of the Twins pitchers in 2010. The widely known deficiencies in the Twins' defensive makeup stand at the very basis of my argument against this rotation. If one is aware that the 8 players behind you are likely to negatively affect your results, it behooves you to do everything in your power to minimize their opportunity to do so. Scott Baker, Brian Duensing, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn had contact rates that place them 97th, 136th, 224th, and 266th out of 273 starters in 2010. Duensing and Blackburn clocked in K/9 ratios of 5.37 and 3.80 respectively. Duensing's ratio is particularly low given that he pitched as a reliever for much of the season. 1.45, 1.34, 1.29, 1.26, and 1.20 are the 2010 WHIP's of Blackburn, Baker, Slowey, Liriano, and Duensing. Twins pitchers lack the ability to miss enough bats to avoid the penalties inherent in a team having poor defense. The fact that each of these pitchers continues to pitch in this manner despite years of poor defense counts against them in my estimation. High fly ball rates for Baker and Slowey bode particularly poorly for them considering the team's move to a less spacious park in 2010. It is a simple and obvious truth that the safest possible outcome for any pitch is a strike, whether that strike involved the player swinging his bat or not. The Twins' rotation simply does not spend enough time trying to miss bats to be included amongst the best rotations in the league.

If all things go well, the Twins rotation can be fairly productive. However, injury concerns, especially those surrounding their ace, leaves this a rotation with a far lower floor than those of several other teams. I am aware that on their best day the Twins are easily capable of out pitching teams like the Tigers, Astros, and Cubs (pre-Garza of course). Personally, I just see too many obstacles in the way of them achieving their best day. On an average day the reliability of the Tigers and Cubs and the upside of the Astros places them above the Twins. I would rather gamble that pitchers like J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, and Bud Norris can capitalize on their potential than slog through the mediocrity that covers the back end of the Twins rotation like a tattoo.

An Alternative Look at the Twins Rotation

Last week when Josh released his Top Ten Worst Rotations - 2011 Edition, I asked the same question many of you are asking now.  Do the Twins really have the ninth worst rotation in baseball?  I certainly didn't think so, and I definitely did not agree with him describing their number 2-5 starters as a "dumpster fire".   The Common Man of the The Platoon Advantage was the first to comment on Josh's oversight, and I thought he was spot on.

"I cannot stress how off you are about the Twins' rotation. Liriano is a legit number one. He had one elbow surgery four seasons ago, has worked his way back, and has been healthy since then. Baker is a solid number 2, whose 4.49 ERA is largely because of the often horrific outfield defense behind him. Slowey gets hurt a little too often, and gives up a few too many homers, but is similarly hurt by the outfield defense. His peripherals are very strong. Duensing has shown a nice K/BB ratio while keeping 52% of the balls hit off him on the ground. And Blackburn. Well, Blackburn's just not very good. He's not a terrible #5, but if the Twins do end up signing Pavano that's a non-issue.

And I'm not sure how the Astros and maybe the Cubs and Tigers aren't ranked lower."

The first thing I want to point out is that the Astros, Cubs, and Tigers have all worse rotations than the Twins--much worse.  The Astros in particular.  Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ, Bud Norris, and Nelson Figueroa are nice pitchers, but I can't think of anyone that would be psyched to have all five in their rotation at the same time.  Rodriguez and Myers are both solid number threes; Happ and Norris are potential fours; and Figueroa is probably a fringy number five.  Any rotation without a legitimate ace or number two starter definitely belongs in the bottom ten.  The Twins, on the other hand, have an ace, two number threes, a number four, and a number five.  Let's take a closer look at each member of their rotation.

Francisco Liriano - 14-10, 3.62/2.66/3.06, 9.44 K/9, 3.47 K/BB, 53.6% GB, 6.0 fWAR

In 2010, Liriano showed that he was finally fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery he had four years prior.  His performance was so impressive that I named him as my third place finisher on my theoretical Cy Young ballot ahead of Jon Lester and C.C. Sabathia.  Some of you might think that I'm absolutely crazy for picking him third, but there were few pitchers as dominant last year in the American League as Liriano.  Need proof?  He finished first in xFIP, second in FIP, second in K/9, fifth in K/BB, and fourth in WAR.  While he was a little lucky on home runs (6.3% HR/FB rate vs. a league average of 10.5%), he was incredibly unlucky on balls put into play (.340 BABIP vs. .303 xBABIP).  As TCM pointed out, his poor BABIP was largely due to the Twins atrocious outfield defense.

Liriano has command of three pitches, which includes an average fastball, an above average to good change-up, and a plus-slider that induces a ton of whiffs.  Going into his age-27 season, it wouldn't be surprising to see him give an encore performance of his 2010 season.  Liriano is a true ace.

Scott Baker - 12-9, 4.49/3.96/4.02, 7.82 K/9, 3.82 K/BB, 35.6% GB, 2.5 fWAR

Scott Baker is an incredibly underappreciated pitcher that does a lot of things very well that go largely unnoticed.  He strikes batters out at a rate that's slightly above average; limits walks; and keeps the ball in the yard despite having a GB/FB ratio that's typically in the 0.7-0.8 range.  The biggest problem with Baker (and this will be the case with a few of the Twins pitchers) is that he's a fly ball pitcher on a team that has a terrible tandem of outfielders, particularly at the corners.  His .323 BABIP backs up that claim.  Looking a little deeper, I found that Baker's BABIP on fly balls was 58 points higher than expected (.198 vs. an expected .140).  This means he gave up 13 more hits than he was expected to give up.  Depending on the context of the situation in which those hits were given up, it's possible those hits accounted for an additional 6-10 runs allowed.  With a league average outfield defense, I have no doubt that the difference between Baker's ERA and FIP would be rather insignificant.

Baker has good command of four pitches:  a fastball, slider, change-up, and curve.  His fastball is effective and sits in the low 90s, while his slider induces the bulk of his whiffs.  His 11-5 curve ball is slightly above average, and has been a "plus" pitch by Fangraphs run value standards in the past.  His change-up is primarily a "show" pitch.

Baker is probably better suited to be a number three starter, but he's still an acceptable option at the two slot in the rotation. 

Carl Pavano - 17-11, 3.75/4.02/4.01, 4.76 K/9, 3.16 K/BB, 51.2% GB, 3.2 fWAR

I should start by saying that when Josh wrote his article, it was December 31st.  Pavano had not yet come to terms on a two year deal.  (He still hasn't officially signed, but he's close enough for the purpose of this exercise.)  After four gruesome, injury filled seasons in New York, Pavano has spent the last two seasons reinventing himself.  Pavano has a spectacular control (finished second in BB/9 rate in each of the last two seasons), induces a ton of ground balls, and keeps the ball in the yard.  His 4.76 K/9 rate (a 28% decline from his 2009 rate) is a bit alarming, but it shouldn't be a problem as long as he keeps his ground ball rate above 50%, and his BB/9 rate in the 1.50-1.75 range.

He has command of three pitches, including an average fastball, solid slider, and a plus-change up (by Fangraphs run value standards).  Despite the fact Pavano will be entering his age-35 season in 2011, I don't see any reason to expect to see too much performance related regression.  Pavano is still a solid number three starter.

Kevin Slowey - 13-6, 4.45/3.98/4.48, 6.71 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 28.3% GB, 2.2 fWAR

Kevin Slowey is a slightly less talented version of Scott Baker.  He's an extreme fly ball pitcher with outstanding control and a strikeout rate that sits right around league average.  Slowey's biggest problem is that he can't seem to avoid the injury bug.  Over the last three-plus seasons, he's missed around 25 starts due to assorted wrist and elbow ailments.  To date, he hasn't pitched enough innings (162 innings) to qualify him for the ERA title--not that he would've won the crown anyway.  While this may end up being just a rash of unfortunate injuries, I'm starting to wonder if his injury pattern is symptomatic of something larger.  It's possible he's a brittle pitcher.  Still, he's only 26, so he has plenty of time to right the ship on the injury front.

Other than injuries, the one thing keeping Slowey from being something other than a mid-to-back end starting pitcher is his fly ball rate.  For his career, he's produced a 48.1% fly ball rate and a 0.66 GB/FB ratio.  Maybe it's just me, but those numbers are pretty alarming.  While his career HR/FB rate (10%) is right around expectations, his fly ball rate implies that he'll allow 30-35 home runs per season, assuming he pitches approximately 200 innings.  Combining a high home run rate with a below average contact rate could be a recipe for disaster, particularly if Slowey sees a regression in his ability to limit walks.  At this point though, it's not a problem.

Slowey has command of four pitches, but he lives and dies off of his fastball that sits 87-91 MPH.  He throws his slider and curve ball a fair amount, but both are average pitches.  His change-up is mostly a "show" pitch, but that's a good thing because it's largely ineffective.  If he could develop his change-up, it could become a solid weapon for him; thus allowing him to induce more ground balls.

Slowey is a prototypical number four starter that should provide 2.5 wins above the replacement level assuming he can stay healthy.  

Brian Duensing - 10-3, 2.62/3.85/4.10, 5.37 K/9, 2.23 K/BB, 52.9% GB, 1.7 fWAR

At first glance, it might be tempting to call Duensing the Twins version of Joe Saunders, but that's not exactly fair.  Duensing is much better.  Despite the fact Duensing's ERA greatly outperformed his FIP and xFIP; his BABIP (.276) was well below the expected .300 average; and his strand rate was above 80%, his 2010 performance isn't entirely a mirage.  Will his performance regress to the mean?  Absolutely.  No one should expect an encore performance in 2011.  Still, there's plenty to like about his performance--especially out of the five spot in the rotation.

Like every other member of the Twins starting rotation, Duensing does a few things incredibly well.  In particular, he induces ground balls at a rate above 50% and limits walks.  While he doesn't induce a lot of swinging strikes, his contact rate is still within the acceptable range.  His HR/FB ratio has fallen below the expected range of 9-11% in each of his first two seasons, so he may see some regression in this category next season.  Then again, he may not.  He may end up like one of those pitchers who consistently outperforms the league in this category like Mark Buehrle and Jarrod Washburn.  The fact that he pitches half of his games at Target Field, the most difficult park in which to hit a home run last season, certainly helps him in that capacity. 

Duensing has command of four pitches: a fastball, curve, slider, and change-up.  He throws his fastball about 60% of the time.  It's league average in terms of it's effectiveness and sits 89-93 MPH.  His slider has proven to be very effective, and has been worth 20.1 runs in the 214 innings he's pitched in the majors so far.  His change-up is somewhat of a mixed bag, and his curve is nothing more than a "show" pitch.

All-in-all, he's a solid number five starter that has the potential to be a solid number four if he can figure out a way to cut his walk rate by 30-40%. 

While I respect Josh's opinion, I greatly disagree with his assessment of the Twins rotation.  While I haven't done a full analysis of the league, I figure they probably rank within the top dozen teams of the league.  There is a lot more talent in the rotation than his "dumpster fire" comment would lead you to believe.

And Then There Were Two...

Howard Sinker of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Carl Pavano has narrowed his selection down to two teams.

From all we hear, Carl Pavano now has to choose between two teams -- the Twins and Washington.

The hang-up is supposed to be that Pavano wants a three-year deal and teams are unwilling to go beyond two for a pitcher who will turn 35 in January and -- as much as Twins fans cherish the 17 victories in 2010 and his veteran presence -- still has a four-year black hole in his career from the Yankees contract.  Any general manager who ignores that 145 innings-for-$39 million bust, regardless of what's happened since, is not exercising reasonable caution.

The solution is pretty obvious, a two-year deal with some kind of option for 2013.

I think Sinker is right.  Unless Mike Rizzo gets another case of the crazies, and offers him a three year deal with a full no-trade clause,Pavano will likely sign a two year deal with a option for a third year.  It seems like only a matter of time before he signs with the Twins.  With Mauer, Morneau, and Lirano in tow, the Twins are legitimate contenders for a title.  If that's not enough, Pavano doesn't want to leave.  It just makes too much sense.  The Nationals seem like nothing more than a pawn being used to drive up the price on the Twins.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal done within the next week.

Checking in on Pavano

According to Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe there are three, maybe four, teams still interested in right-handed starting pitcher Carl Pavano:

Pavano elected to go slowly in negotiations and let the market play out, so there was no deal before Christmas. Now what? Well, he remains the top free agent pitcher on the market and will hold out for three years. A lot of teams are interested, including Minnesota, Washington, Texas, and possibly Seattle if it can free up some money.

With Brandon Webb signing with the Rangers yesterday evening, we can pull them out of the running for Pavano.  They could surprise me and make a run at Pavano (they do have money to burn), but I don't see them being interested in signing another injury riddled right-hander who is on the wrong side of 30.  That is, unless he's willing to take a two year deal at a slightly reduced price. 

The Mariners don't seem like a great bet either.  This is especially true considering I haven't seen any reports indicating the Mariners are even casually interested in bringing Pavano to Seattle.  This, of course, doesn't mean they aren't interested.  It just means it's less likely to be interested.  Furthermore, I'm not sure it's in the best interested of the Mariners to sign Pavano.  Currently, they're a rebuilding team with a below average rotation that's projected to be 70-75 win team in 2011.  Even with Pavano in the mix, they're still a rebuilding team with a below average rotation.  Signing him maybe adds 2-3 wins onto their year end total.  If signing Pavano doesn't make them a legitimate playoff contender (and it likely won't), it's probably more prudent for the Mariners to save their money for a rainy day.  Until we hear otherwise, we should probably assume the race for Pavano is of the two team variety.

That leaves the Twins and Nationals as the de facto front runners.  After throwing $126M and a full no-trade clause at right fielder Jayson Werth, they were rumored to be more than slightly interested in signing this year's premier free agent starting pitcher, Cliff Lee.  Lee ended signing with the Phillies, so the money they had earmarked still remains.  The Nationals shallow rotation is currently headed up Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis, so obviously, they have a need for another starter.  Normally, I would suggest they follow the same path I suggested for the Mariners, but it's clear their not interested in making rational signings--only big splashes.  The Twins, knowing Pavano is interested in remaining in the Twin Cities, have a huge edge on their end of the negotiations.  Until their hand is forced, they have no reason to offer Pavano a contract beyond two years.  If Pavano has any chance of getting a three year contract this year, he'll probably have to convince Nationals GM Mike Rizzo to blink first.

The longer Pavano waits to sign a deal, the more his situation becomes reminiscent of Joel Pineiro's situation from last offseason.  The difference between the two situations is that Pineiro was coming off an unlikely comeback season that followed five seasons of ineffectiveness.  Pavano, of course, has a two year track record of success after his four year run of ineffectiveness.  A few have speculated that interested teams are reluctant to sign Pavano to a three year deal based on his performance during his four year deal with the Yankees.  While that might be a legitimate reason, I think teams are far more concerned about giving a three year deal to a player at his age and injury history.  In all likelihood, I think Pavano ends up signing a two year contract, especially if negotiations extend beyond the BCS title game on January 10th.