Papelbon Still on the Block

Well, this is an interesting story line.  According to Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are still very open to trading All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon.

7. Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, Red Sox — Jon Heyman of SI.com reported that the Sox considered dealing him to the White Sox or Oakland, but the $12 million salary nixed things. But a Red Sox source said this: Papelbon won’t be off-limits in spring training or during the season, no matter where the Sox are in the standings and whether Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks is ready to take the closer job.

This really shouldn't be considered a surprise considering the ridiculous one year $12M contract Papelbon signed last week.  It wasn't all that long ago that he was one of the top two or three closers in the game.  Now?  Not so much.  After struggling with mechanics, inconsistent command, poor pitch selection, and an inability to avoid walks, Papelbon has stumbled into a second (or maybe even third) tier closer.  Second and third tier closers are nice, but they're not worth the salary he's going to be making in 2011.   

Trading Papelbon will prove to be extremely difficult for the Red Sox.  If they expect to get anything in return for the struggling closer, they're going to have to be willing to eat a sizable portion of the money he's owed.

In 2010, Papelbon went 5-7 with 37 saves in 45 chances, 3.51 FIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, and 1.2 WAR.

Arbitration Recap

Today is deadline day for teams and players to exchange salary arbitration figures.  Typically, deadline day is met with a flurry of deals by arbitration eligible players seeking to avoid having to go through the uncomfortable experience of an arbitration hearing.  Today, was no different.  Rather than putting multiple individual posts about each individual signing, I thought it would be more efficient to do a quick round-up of deals completed today.

• Prince Fielder - According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Brewers and Prince Fielder have come to terms on a one year $15.5M contract.  This looks like a solid move for both teams.  Fielder gets the distinction of being the highest paid Brewer of all time, while the Brew Crew retains their power hitting first baseman for one last run at the promised land.  Fielder's true talent level is between 4.5-5.0 WAR at this point, so Milwaukee should have no problem justifying his contract.
• Jonathan Papelbon - Sean McAdam of Comcast Sports Net reports that Papelbon and the Red Sox agreed to a one year $12M contract.  After being one of the two or three most effective closers in baseball from 2006-2008, Papelbon has struggled mightily over the past two seasons.  At only 30 years old, there's always the chance he rediscovers his dominant form, but he'd have to not only regain his elite control, but also show he can consistently throw his plus-fastball and splitter at the same time.  With Papelbon's true talent level around 1.7-2.0 WAR, he'd need to have a season on par with his 2007 campaign (2.4 WAR) in order to justify his contract.  That might be too much to ask at this point.
• Heath Bell - SI's Jon Heyman reported that Heath Bell has signed a one year $7.5M contract with the Padres in his last season of arbitration-eligibility.  Bell, 33, has been one of the best closers in baseball over the past two seasons posting a double digit K/9 rate and a K/BB rate over 3.00.  Bell will be an interesting free agent case next season.  With Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon and Yankees set-up man Rafael Soriano both may hit the free agent market next season, Bell may end up being the odd man out when it comes to scoring a big free agent contract.  His true talent level is around 2.0 WAR, so he should have no problem justifying his 2011 salary.
• Matt Capps - According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, the Twins have agreed to terms with Matt Capps on a one year $7.15M deal.  This deal struck me a bit by surprise considering how many relief pitchers the Twins allowed to leave via free agency (Crain, Guerrier, Fuentes, and Rauch).  Capps is a solid pitcher, I don't think anyone would consider him to be within the first or second tier of closers.  His walk rate is solid, but his strikeout rate is a bit lacking for a closer quality pitcher.  Considering Capps's 2011 salary, and the cost of acquiring him (catching prospect Wilson Ramos), it might've been a smarter move for the Twins to non-tender Capps.  
• Cody Ross - Jane McCauley of the Associated Press reports that the Giants and outfielder Cody Ross have agreed to terms on a one year deal worth $6.3M.  Ross made $4.65M last season, and given the nature of arbitration, he was guaranteed a sizable raise.  Still, I can't help but think that his salary is almost entirely the function of his huge postseason.  Ross was an average player in every sense of the word last season posting a .324 wOBA, +2.7 UZR, and 2.2 WAR.  As a 2.0 WAR true talent player, he'll be worth his salary in the WAR-sense, but still seems like a bit of an overpay.  It probably would've been better for the Giants to non-tender him, and try to sign him for less as a free agent.
• John Danks - The Miami Herald reports that the White Sox have agreed to terms with John Danks on a one year $6M deal.   Danks really seemed to come into his own last season making improvements with some small improvements his control and ground ball rates.  His strikeout rate is a little low for someone who induces whiffs on 9% of his pitches, but it's still acceptable.  Going into his age-26 season, he looks like a pretty solid bet to produce another 3-4 WAR season in 2011.   
• Matt Garza - According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, the Cubs have come to terms with Matt Garza on a one year deal worth $5.95M.  Garza was a "Super-Two" arbitration eligible player, so as a fourth year player, this was his second time through the process.  As I've mentioned a few times before, Garza put up solid primary numbers, but allowed more contact, induced fewer strikeouts, and saw a 4% drop in his already low ground ball rate.  Even with going to the weaker National League, Garza will have to turn around his peripherals if he's going to be able to sustain the kind of success his primary number indicate.  Garza is a 2.5 WAR true talent player, so he'll provide more than enough value to justify his salary in 2011.  He's going to have to improve upon that number over the next couple of years, if he's going to be able to justify his 2012 and 2013 arbitration salaries.
• Carlos Quentin - The Miami Herald reports that Quentin and the White Sox have agreed in principle to a one year deal worth $5.05M.  After putting up a near-MVP quality season in 2008, Quentin has fallen on hard times over the past two seasons.  His batting average has plummeted, walk rate has dropped, and defense has deteriorated beyond repair.  It's gotten so bad for Quentin that he officially qualifies as a replacement player at this point.  The White Sox tried to unload him earlier this offseason, but not surprisingly, didn't find any takers.  Quentin will need to produce a solid season in 2011, or else he'll become a candidate to be non-tendered after the season.  He probably should've been non-tendered after 2010, but no GM wants to be the guy non-tendering a 28 year old hitter with 30-35 home run power.
• Clint Barmes - According to Ken Rosenthal, the Astros and Clint Barmes agreed to a one year deal worth $3.95M.  This one actually makes the Papelbon deal look slightly palatable.  Between the Rockies and Astros last season, Barmes produced a pathetic .284 wOBA.  Keep in mind that he did this while hitting in two of the better hitters parks (Coors and Minute Maid) in baseball.  Going into his age-32 season, Barmes is a 1.0 WAR player at best.  If the Astros had been smart (which they're not), and non-tendered him at the beginning of the offseason, they probably could've re-signed him for a quarter of the cost. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury - According to Sean McAdam, Jacoby Ellsbury has agreed to a one year $2.4M contract with the Boston Red Sox.  This was Ellsbury's first crack at arbitration, and he didn't fare too poorly considering he only played 18 games last season due to a recurring rib injury.  Ellsbury should be completely healthy going into the 2011 season, so there's no reason he shouldn't be able to repeat his 3.0 WAR performance from 2009.  He's going into his age-27 season, so a lot will be expected of him.  At some point, he's going to need to not only show marked improvement in his plate discipline, but also exhibit his vaunted raw power during games. 

There were many others who signed including Joba Chamberlain, Adam Jones, Josh Willingham, Joe Saunders, and Ryan Ludwick, but I think a ten player analysis is enough for now.  Other players will sign over the next month as they rush to avoid a potential arbitration hearing.  They won't come in a rush like the ones today though.  Instead, they'll trickle in.

Hot Stove Season Ends, Arbitration Season Begins

Mmmmmm...Donut

It's that time of year again.  The Hot Stove Season is quickly cooling down, and the arbitration season is starting heat up.  According to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, 119 major league players filed for salary arbitration yesterday.  This list includes AL MVP Josh Hamilton, NL MVP Joey Votto, power hitting first baseman Prince Fielder, closer Jonathan Papelbon, and surprise power hitter Jose Bautista. 

The salary arbitration process is pretty archaic.  When players and teams exchange salary figures in mid-January, they are given the option to negotiate a contract.  In most cases, the negotiations are fairly simple, and contracts are finalized by the mid-February deadline.  In situations where both parties can not come to an agreement by the deadline, they're required to appear before an arbitration panel and plead their cases.  These situations are often ugly, partisan, and uncomfortable. 

The way the system is set up, nearly every player that files for arbitration ends up receiving a substantial raise. About half of the players are expected to agree to terms with their teams within the next week.  Only a handful of the cases will actually get heard by the arbitration panel. 

The Dreaded Vote of Confidence

Earlier today, Ian Browne tweeted some interesting information from Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein.  He stated that despite his recent signing of former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks and the continued presence of fireballing set-up man Daniel Bard, there is not a closer controversy in Boston.  Jonathan Papelbon is still the closer.  That is, of course, until blows back-to-back save opportunities...or gives up a three run lead against the Yankees...or gets traded.

All joking aside, this seems like the dreaded vote of confidence.  Do you know what I mean?  It's the same one owners or General Managers give just before someone gets the ax a week later. 

Unlike a lot of people, I don't think his struggles have anything to do with his so-called meltdown in Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS.  Papelbon is not what I would call a thinker--and I mean that in the nicest possible way.  He doesn't stew on his errors.  His ability to forget his failures is what has allowed him to be one of the most successful closers in baseball over the past five seasons.  To say that a single failure is the reason for his decline is too simplistic, not to mention inaccurate.

Papelbon's issues have to do with his "stuff."   I've often wondered if his struggles stem from the Red Sox experimenting with his mechanics early in the 2009 season.  Since the start of 2009, he's had trouble avoiding walks (especially in April when his K/BB ratio is significantly worse than the rest of the season), and consistently being able to locate his fastball and splitter over the course of the season.  As a result, he's allowed more baserunners, given up more runs, and blown more saves than he had in the past.  Of course, I don't need to tell you that each of these things can spell death for a closer.  

I still believe Papelbon can be an effective major league closer.  In fact, I still think he can be an effective, if not dominant, closer in Boston.  In order to regain his dominance, he needs to find a way to reverse this disturbing two year trend.  He needs to regain his plus-control, and be able to establish his rising fastball and diving splitter as the consistent plus-pitches they were just a few short years ago. 

Unfortunately, time may not be on his side.  Papelbon is about to enter his age-30 season.  Closer don't typically improve once they hit 30; they tend to decline.  I think Papelbon will be given every opportunity to hold down the role he's owned for five years.  If he can't, I fully expect Francona to remove him from the role (just as he replaced Keith Foulke with Papelbon in 2006), and install either Bard or Jenks in the role.  In a way, it would be poetic justice.

Papelbon to Request $11.5M in Arbitration

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is “poised” to request a salary in the area of $11.5M in arbitration.  This would be a raise of slightly more than $2M over his 2010 salary.  While his request might seem a little crazy on the surface, within the context of salary arbitration, it’s not.  As salary arbitration is currently set up, it essentially guarantees every player eligible will get a salary increase.  There are exceptions to the rule, but they’re rare (i.e. players coming back from severe injuries or extreme ineffectiveness).  Papelbon and his agent know this, and they’re using this information to maximize his 2011 compensation.

The big problem with Papelbon’s salary request is that he doesn’t deserve it.  By nearly every statistical measure, Papelbon’s performance has been in a state of decline since 2008.  Here’s a quick look at some his key indicators over the past five seasons: 

                  ERA      FIP       K/9       BB/9     K/BB     wFB      WAR    

2006          0.92      2.14     9.88       1.71      5.77      24.1       3.0

2007          1.85      2.45    12.96      2.31      5.60      23.3       2.2

2008          2.34      2.01    10.00      1.04      9.63      18.7       3.2

2009          1.85      3.05    10.06      3.18      3.17      14.3       2.0

2010          3.90      3.51    10.21      3.76      2.61       4.5        1.2

Papelbon was extraordinarily dominant early in his career.  He had an elite fastball, induced whiffs at a high rate, and controlled the strike zone by limiting walks.  He had a reputation for being the type of closer that could walk into a tense situation and get through it quickly with minimal drama.  In the postseason, he was even better.  Through 2008, he put together a scoreless streak of 25 consecutive innings.  Many in baseball saw him as the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera as the premier closer in baseball. 

In 2009, everything changed.  Papelbon’s pin point control disappeared (9.63 K/BB in 2008 to 3.17 in 2009).  His elite fastball, once dominant, appeared lifeless and predictable in the absence of a second quality pitch.  The effortless innings he used to routinely coast through were replaced with tense high wire acts in which he allowed multiple base runners.  Papelbon's year long struggles came to a head when he blew a crucial save in Game 3 of the ALDS.  After the game, he vowed to come back stronger, and return to his dominant form. 

That didn’t happen.  2010 started out much the same way as 2009.  This time, Papelbon's spotty control and penchant for high pressure situations was accompanied by a significantly reduced strikeout rate.  From opening day through July 31st, Papelbon's K/9 rate was 7.68 (26% below his career rate of 10.4 through 2009).  Due to his inability to establish an effective secondary pitch, hitters stopped biting at the fastball out of the zone, thus resulting in fewer strikeouts.  Only after Papelbon established his splitter as an effective pitch did his strikeout rate begin to rebound.  Over the course of the final two months of the season, Papelbon put up a K/9 rate of 14.83, which brought his year end average closer in line with his career rate.  Despite his rediscovered ability to miss bats, he had difficulty getting batters out on balls in play.  Papelbon's struggles were two fold:  (1) he suffered from some rotten luck on balls put into play (.455 BABIP versus an xBABIP of .345, a difference of six hits allowed). and (2) he had a tendency to leave his fastball up in the zone caused him to give up an unusually high number of line drives (21% during Aug/Sept versus a season rate of 17.7%).  The elevated line drive rate caused Papelbon to not only allow more hits, but also more runs.  The final two months of the season was when he had four of his career high eight blown saves.

This brings us back to the question of Papelbon's value.  Relief pitchers, due to the number of innings they pitch, are very rarely worth salaries above $4-5M, including most closers.  Even elite closers are rarely worth a salary of $10M, let alone the $11.5M Papelbon requested.  The problem with Papelbon's request is that he hasn't been an elite closer since 2008.  Going into his age-30 season, Papelbon is exhibiting multiple signs of decline.  His walk and home run rates are on the rise; his strikeout rate is somewhat unstable; and his fastball is considerably less effective than it was in 2006 (lost 19.6 runs in value in five seasons). 

Going into the offseason, the Red Sox front office is faced with a pretty complex dilemma.  It appears they have three options:

1. Re-sign Papelbon, and go into 2011 with him as the closer; allow him to leave as a free agent and re-coup two compensation draft picks
2. Trade Papelbon (preferably prior to arbitration), and go into 2011 with Daniel Bard as the closer
3. Non-tender Papelbon, and allow him to leave as a free agent; Bard as closer

If I were the Red Sox, I'd start out by trying to make Option 2 work.  If I found a trade that was reasonable, I'd trade Papelbon, and install Bard as the closer in 2011.  If I couldn't find a good trade, I'd go with Option 1.  While Papelbon isn't likely to be worth the $10.5-11.5 salary, he's still one of the 10-15 best relief pitchers in the game.  Plus, it would allow the Red Sox to reprise the great 1-2 punch (with Bard and Papelbon) at the back end of the bullpen that few teams could rival.   If they could put together a deep bullpen around them, it would make Papelbon and Bard that much more effective.  

Lastly, Papelbon is practically guaranteed to be a Type A free agent after the 2011 season.  If/When the Red Sox allow him to walk as a free agent, he'll bring back two compensation picks (a first round and a sandwich pick).  By taking Papelbon's projected value, and combining it with the value the Red Sox will receive via the two draft picks, we find that the combined value is likely to match or exceed his 2011 salary.  This is what makes Option 3 fairly risky.  As I see it, the best way for the Red Sox to get the most value out of Papelbon is to either trade him prior to the season, or re-sign him and recoup the draft picks after 2011.  Either way, it should be pretty interesting to see how the situation progresses as it could have an effect on how teams deal with comparable closers in the near future.