Cliff Lee afraid of the NY media?? Laughable!

Now that the Cliff Lee dust has settled it's time to clear the air on what I think is a ludicrous argument by Yankee fans regarding his signing.

Some people are under the ridiculous delusion that the reason Cliff Lee didn't sign with the Yankees was because of the tough New York media. As far as I'm concerned that argument has as much credibility as a report that The Dome Of The Rock is hosting Bar Mitzvahs.

Granted New York and Boston are two of the toughest cities to play in when it comes to the media. With so many papers vying for a story reporters are up players' asses more than a proctologist. It takes a certain kind of person to deal with the New York media. Randy Johnson couldn't do it, Jeff Weaver couldn't do it, and Jack Wilson couldn't do it. As a player you better be thick skinned if you want to play in New York.

However, saying that Cliff Lee decided to play in Philadelphia rather than New York because of the media is absurd. Hello??? It's freakin' Philadelphia. You know? The same town that booed Santa Claus, booed Mike Schmidt, threw bottles at refs, cheered when Michael Irvin almost broke his neck, and threw batteries at J.D. Drew. Philly isn't New York but it's not Omaha either. And Cliff Lee sure isn't Zack Greinke. Lee doesn't have self-esteem issues or social anxiety disorder as far as I'm aware.

As a player you have to have a high degree of mental toughness to play in the City of Brotherly Love. Just ask Allen Iverson. Oh that's right you can't he's at practice in Turkey. (Wait we talkin' 'bout practice in Turkey? Practice? In Turkey? Practice?)

To put it bluntly Yankee fans (myself included) Cliff Lee didn't want to go to New York because he did not want to play for the Yankees. Think about it. This guy re-signed with a team THAT TRADED HIM THE YEAR BEFORE. It had nothing to do with money or the media. In point of fact in might have had something to do with how poorly Lee's wife was treated by the fans during the ALCS. (You stay classy Yankee fans!)

Lee for better or for worse is now a Philly. But don't think for one moment that if he has a bad April that the media and the fans won't be all over him. They will. At that point he'll have to demonstrate the kind of mental toughness in the locker room dealing with reporters, that fans have become so used to seeing on the mound.

So don't kid yourself Yankee fans. Stating that it's a good thing Lee didn't come to New York because he couldn't deal with the media is just chugging the Kool-Aid. Kool-Aid that just happens to taste like sour grapes.

Insight into the Lee Negotiations

And you thought the Cliff Lee posts were done.  How foolish of you…

Earlier today, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram shared some interesting information regarding the negotiations between Cliff Lee and the Rangers:

CEO Chuck Greenberg and general manager Jon Daniels said that the Rangers were at their limit last week when Lee was offered a six-year contract worth $138 million -- some of which was deferred -- and a vesting option for a seventh year that would have paid another $23 million.

Agent Darek Braunecker, though, told the Rangers that Lee would sign with them if they guaranteed seven years.

The Rangers passed, and Lee will sign a five-year, $120 million contact with the Philadelphia Phillies. "In this instance, it was simply a matter of us saying, 'yes,'" Greenberg said. "But it would have been a matter of us saying 'yes' on terms that we weren't comfortable with.

"This was not a matter of Cliff making a decision not to come to Texas. He was willing to remain a Ranger, but it was on terms that we felt went beyond the aggressive parameters within which we were already operating."

A seven-year deal for the Rangers would have been a heck of a ledge to be out on for Texas.

Wow.  I’m not sure how the Rangers were able to resist that kind of temptation, but they did.  Bruanecker told the Ranger front office exactly what it would take to retain Lee, and they chose to stand pat.  While it was probably one of the most difficult decisions they’ll ever make, it was absolutely the right one.  Yes, they lost out on Lee to the Phillies, but guaranteeing the seventh year would’ve crippled the club long-term.  Teams should never go beyond their comfort zone when signing a player.  When teams do go beyond their comfort zone, big mistakes tend to happen.

I think article’s biggest surprise is the Yankees appear to have finished a distant third in this race.  That’s kind of surprising considering how well Cashman handled these negotiations.   When was the last time the Yankees finished third for any free agent they openly coveted?  

Lee Spurns Yankees and Rangers for Phillies

Last night, Cliff Lee shocked the baseball world.  ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported that the Phillies and Cliff Lee had agreed to terms on a 5 year 120M contract with a vesting option for a sixth season. 

This comes as a bit of a shock to those in the baseball writing community.  For the past several weeks, most of us had become lulled into the idea that the Lee sweepstakes was an exclusive two team race between the Yankees and Rangers.  Yes, there were other teams that showed interest (Red Sox, Nationals, Angels, and Tigers), but most of those rumors never went past the “kicking the tires” stage. 

SI’s Jon Heyman often spoke of a second mystery team lurking (the Red Sox were the first) in the shadows, but most of us didn’t take him seriously.  In fact, Heyman’s insistence on a mystery team became a bit of a joke, with Buster Olney, Peter Gammons, and Keith Law poking fun at his expense.  In the end, it turns out he was right all along.  Interestingly enough, he’s not the reporter who was given the scoop.  Jayson Stark first reported suspicions that the Phillies were moving on Lee, and Ken Rosenthal confirmed the report.  Still, Heyman’s role in the Phillies surprise signing can not be understated.  Heyman’s penchant reporting the involvement of a mystery team (a reputation he received through working closely with super agent Scott Boras) made him the ultimate pawn.  His wolf cries came so frequently that no one believed him.  This gave the Phillies an opportunity to fly under the radar, and steal Lee out from under the noses of the Rangers and Yankees. 

I’ve already discussed how this affects the Phillies yesterday.  The Lee signing gives them a rotation that has the potential to be historically good.  Do they have some work to do?  Absolutely.  They need to clear around $20M from their payroll, which won’t be an easy task.   So how does this affect the Yankees and Rangers?

Let’s start with the Yankees.  The Yankees made it no secret that Cliff Lee was their number one target all along.  Despite what I’d said before, the Yankees didn’t need Lee.  That said, he would’ve made the Yankees that much stronger, especially with the upgrades the Red Sox have made over the past couple of weeks.  Lee would’ve paired up with Sabathia to create a 1-2 punch that few teams (if any) would’ve been able to match.  Now, the Yankees are forced to either sign someone off of the scrap heap that is the free agent market, or make a trade.  The Yankees have been linked to Zach Greinke trade rumors, but it’s unclear whether the Yankees would be willing to part with the pieces necessary (Jesus Montero) to make the deal happen.  Also, there are questions as whether or not he’s mentally fit to pitch in New York.*  Joe Blanton, Matt Garza, James Shields, and Derek Lowe may also be available.  It’s not exactly awe inspiring, but it’s an upgrade over Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre. 

* Typically, I downplay the psychological affect, but in the case of those who have suffered from anxiety (Greinke), depression (Votto), the yips (Willis), or psychotic behavior (Bradley and Dukes), I factor it into the equation.  I can certainly see why many would be concerned about Greinke and the big market affect.

What about the Rangers?  With Cliff Lee at the front of the rotation, the Rangers rotation would’ve looked a lot better.  Without Lee, they’re without a true ace.  Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson are nice pitchers, but they’re middle of the rotation starters.  If they expect to be serious playoff contenders, the Rangers will probably need to add an ace (or near ace) quality pitcher.  Luckily for the Rangers, they have a number of options due to their deep farm system.  The most likely is they look to make a trade for one of the pitchers in the Greinke, Garza, Shields, Blanton, Lowe group (or someone else not yet rumored to be on the trading block).  Also, I fully expect the Rangers to not only go hard after Adrian Beltre, but also re-open Michael Young trade talks. 

Both teams are bringing back roughly the same teams next season.  Are they a year older?  Sure, but both teams are quality teams capable of winning 90 games.  That should be more than enough to get the Rangers the division title and the Yankees the Wild Card.  While losing out on Lee has to be incredibly disappointing for both clubs, they shouldn’t panic.  There’s plenty of time before the 2011 season starts.  The trade market has a habit of transforming throughout the offseason.   You never know who will become available come February.  Guys like Billingsley, Buehrle, and Nolasco perhaps?

Mystery Team Unveiled

As Cliff Lee's world turns...

The mystery team surrounding the Cliff Lee negotiations just won't go away.  Now, thanks to ESPN's Jayson Stark and Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal the mystery team has finally been identified.  Earlier in the day, Stark tweeted that he thought no team "fits profile of Cliff Lee's mystery team more than the Phillies."  While this was an interesting idea, the rumor was not only unconfirmed, but a bit implausible.  Then, Rosenthal confirmed the rumor. 

The Phillies are still bidding for free-agent left-hander Cliff Lee, according to a source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

The extent of the Phillies’ involvement is not known, but as of 6:30 p.m. ET Monday, the source described them as “not out.” 

This is certainly a very interesting and unexpected development.  The Phillies were very interested in re-singing Cliff Lee last offseason before it became clear he was determined to become a free agent after the 2010 season.  Knowing how much he would command on the open market (and not wanting him to leave without compensation), the Phillies traded for former Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay and simultaneously traded Lee to the Mariners.  Now, it appears that they're interested yet again.

The problem the Phillies are going to have is that they need to clear a significant amount of payroll to fit Lee on the roster.   According to Cots Baseball Contracts, the Phillies already have $146.8M committed to 18 players, which includes $56M to their top four starting pitchers.  To sign Lee, the Phillies would have probably have to move LF Raul Ibanez and SP Joe Blanton.  This isn't going to be easy.

As I've mentioned before, Ibanez is entering his age-39 season, and has exhibited declining a skill set on offensive, defensive, and the base paths.  My early projections have Ibanez being worth 1.5 WAR next season, or $7.5M (marginal value of -$4.5M).  Finding a trade partner for the left fielder is going to be tough.  Finding a trade partner willing to absorb his entire $12M salary is going to be nearly impossible.  Then again, never say never.  Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti are always willing to take on overpriced veterans.

Joe Blanton should be a lot easier to move.  He's going into his age-30 season next year, and has shown marked improvements in his control and strikeout numbers over the last two seasons.  Yes, he's had trouble with the long ball in the pinball machine known as Citizen's Bank Park, but who hasn't.  Moving him out of Philly to a neutral park could be just what the doctor ordered for Blanton.  With the starting pitching market being rather thin right now (Lee and Pavano are the best starters available), there are plenty of teams looking to make trades.  The Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Brewers, and Angels have all been linked to rumors involving trading for a starting pitcher.  Blanton fits the bill of the classic number four starter that most teams need in order to be serious playoff contenders.  While Blanton's salary of $10.5M for 2011 might seem a bit high, it's not.  With the average cost of a win on the free agent market averaging $5M/win, Blanton would need to be roughly a 2.0 win pitcher in 2011 to justify his salary.  In the last three seasons, Blanton's been worth 2.1, 2.0, and 1.9 WAR respectively.  Considering he hasn't seen any decline in his control or his "stuff," he seems like a great bet to be at least a 2.0 WAR pitcher next season.  Plus, Blanton is signed for the next two years, so it's not like he'd be a one year rental. 

If the Phillies are successful in unloading both players (highly unlikely), they would clear roughly $23M in salary, which coincidentally happens to be the annual average salary the Yankees are reported to have recently offered Lee.  Considering the long term investments the Phillies have committed themselves to (Howard, Utley, Halladay, etc.), I'd have to imagine the Phillies would prefer to sign him to a deal that is much shorter than seven years.  A deal of five years appears to be the minimum Lee and Bruanecker would consider.  With Lee receiving a seven year deal from the Yankees, and a six year deal (with a seventh year option) from the Rangers, the Phillies would likely have to top both teams in terms of average annual salary.  To be serious contenders, the Phillies would likely need to offer 5 years $125M just to be considered.  There's no word on whether Phillies GM Ruben Amaro would be willing to make that kind of offer, but considering some of the other contracts he's given out in recent years, I wouldn't be surprised.

If the Phillies somehow pull this signing off, it would be quite a coup.  With Halladay and Lee as dueling aces, Oswalt as the number three, and Hamels as the number four starter, the Philles would have a rotation that was unparalleled throughout the major leagues.  Unfortunately, the Phillies window to win with this group would be fairly narrow as Lee will be 32 in 2010, Oswalt 33, and Halladay 34.  Still, it would be impressive to see them in action for just one year.

Your Daily Dose of Cliff Lee

You didn't think I'd let a day go by without posting something about Cliff Lee.  Did you?  There isn't a lot to be said by myself or anyone else at this point, so I'll try to keep this brief. 

• MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reports that Rangers President Nolan Ryan is under the impression that Lee will have a decision as early as Monday.  He's taking the weekend to consider all of the offers on the table. 
• Yankees GM Brian Cashman told the New York Post that they're holding pat at 7 years $161M.  Nothing will be added in terms of dollars or years.  It's take it or leave it.  This is a smart move by the Yankees.  Why should they increase their bid when they know they have the best bid on the table? 
• According to Buster Olney, an official within the Yankee organization thinks the team has a 50/50 shot to sign Lee. 
• Jon Heyman tweets that there are "strong signs" that a third team is involved in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes.  Could the Angels be making a run at Lee in hopes of salvaging a disappointing Hot Stove season?  Perhaps it's the Nationals lurking with some sort of insane eight year deal?  Or Perhaps Heyman is full of shit?  All three are equally likely.  We'll all have to wait to see how this all pans out.

That's all the news that's fit to print.  I'll post more updates later should any arise.

The Latest on Lee

UPDATE (12/11/2010 at 2:45 pm):  Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers have added a seventh year option to the menu of offers they've provided to the Cliff Lee.  I think Lee and Bruanecker should hold off a little longer.  I have this feeling Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is lurking with an 8 year $200M contract in tow.

Ok, not really.  But one can dream...

Original Post (12/11/2010 at 10:00 am):  Douchebagger-in-Chief, Jon Heyman, reports that the Yankees have guaranteed $1M per season more than the Rangers.  While I'm not sure the additional $1M per season in salary is enough to pry him away from the Rangers, the guaranteed seventh year probably will.  It just makes too much sense for Lee to sign with the Yankees.  They're offering the most money, guaranteeing the longest contract, and providing him with the best chance of winning a (or multiple) championships.

Look out Yankee fans.  You're worst nightmare has been realized.  Hank Steinbrenner is back in the news, and he's been given the opportunity to speak to the media.  Yikes!  Here's what he said about Cliff Lee:

“For somebody of that stature, it would certainly behoove him to be a Yankee, which would probably be for the rest of his career,” Steinbrenner, the Yankees’ co-chairman, said during a telephone interview Friday with The Associated Press. “I think that would be a great move for him but, of course I’m prejudiced.”

Someone needs to put a muzzle on him.  Seriously.  He's like Chris Farley from Black Sheep.  Just when they have Cliff Lee within their grasp, he does something to put it in jeopardy. 

The article I linked to is from the Yankee blog titled, It's About the Money.  If you haven't checked out their blog, I strongly recommend it.  Jason Rosenberg and the rest of the guys at IIATMS have put together a very well written, rational site.  Everyone, including Red Sox fans, should check it out.  

Game...Set...Match? Yankees Offer Seventh Year

UPDATE (12/9/2010 at 3:00 pm):  Lee's agent Daren Braunecker had this to say to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick:

"We have no interest in participating in the unconventional negotiating style the club has requested. For the player to submit an offer to the club … that’s not the way the process works."

Nolan Ryan's "just tell us what to offer" tactic is not in the best interest of Cliff Lee.  Lee wants to maximize his value.  Telling them what it will take to sign him hurts his ability to do so.  By forcing the Rangers to make the proposal, Braunecker/Lee are leaving the Rangers open to overbidding.  It's pretty smart.  The Lee negotiations just keep getting more and more interesting.

UPDATE (12/9/2010 at 2:30 pm):  Joel Sherman believes the Yankees offer was 7 years $161M, which is identical to the Sabathia deal.  It seems to be down to a two team race again.  The Yankees have the early lead, but the Rangers seem to be closing in.

UPDATE (12/9/2010 at 1:00 pm):  Ken Rosenthal reports that the Rangers are going to go beyond five years for Lee.  This isn't over yet.

Original Post (12/9/2010 at 11:30 am):  ESPN's Buster Olney and SI's Jon Heyman report that the Yankees have shelved their six year offer to Cliff Lee, and replaced it with a sparkling new seven year deal.  After all, you ain't cool unless you're signing players to seven year deals these days.  While no details have been made available as to how much this new deal would be worth, a source close to the negotiations told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick that the average annual salary is thought to be less than the $23.3M per season the Yankees offered under the six year deal.

While this appears as if this could be the clinching bid, it's not over yet.  Ken Rosenthal tweeted earlier that Lee might drag talks through the weekend in hopes of extorting more money out of the Yankees, Rangers, Angels, and (maybe) Tigers.  If this is the case, it's a very smart move.  Lee has everyone right where they want them.

Lastly, Crasnick reports that that the Rangers are making a third trip out to Arkansas to visit with Lee this weekend.  This shows me that the Rangers are very serious about Lee, and may end up giving him the six year deal Lee said he wanted.  Now that the Yankees, Red Sox, and a mystery team have offered him seven years, I'm not sure six will do it.  Still, it doesn't hurt to try.

Yankees Make Strong Offer to Lee

UPDATE (12/8/2010 at 10:15pm):  Darek Bruanecker apparently left the winter meetings with a 6 year $140M contract offer in tow.  Also, Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Cliff Lee could make a final decision by this weekend.

UPDATE (12/8/2010 at 7:55pm):  Lee's agent Darek Braunecker has left the winter meetings.  There definitely won't be a deal done today.

Original Post (12/8/2010 at 1:50 pm):  If you’re not sick of hearing me talk about Cliff Lee yet, you’re going to be soon.  In fact, by the end of the Winter Meetings, you’ll probably miss my daily musings on the Derek Jeter contract negotiations.  Consider yourself warned.

SI’s Jon Heyman reports the Yankees are prepared to make a monster 6 year $140-150M contract offer to Cliff Lee.  Is this really a surprise?  Not really.  When I texted Josh with the news, he responded with, “Sounds about right.”  In other words, this offer seemed inevitable.   

Quite frankly, this seems like a winning bid.  The Yankees have made it no secret that Cliff Lee is their primary target.  When they set their sights on signing a player, they almost always get their man.*  I know there’s been a lot of buzz in Orlando regarding the two mystery teams, but I remain skeptical that either team would be able to match the Yankees average annual salary offer of $25M per season. 

* I think the last time they didn’t sign their primary target was during the 2003-2004 offseason when Vladmir Guerrero went to the Angels.  If anyone can think of a more recent occurrence, please let me know.

That said, its unlikely Lee will sign a contract this week.  He and his agent will likely shop this offer around in hopes of getting a better one.  They won’t find one, but I understand their desire to shop around nonetheless. 

Nats to Offer Contract to Lee? Possibly, but We're not Really Sure...

UPDATE (12/7/2010 at 8:00 pm):  News Flash!  Jon Heyman reports that there isn't one, but two mystery teams looking to offer Cliff Lee seven years, and neither of those teams are the Yankees or Rangers.  So who could those teams be?  The Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers are all looking to spend money this offseason.  None of those teams seem to be great fits for Lee.  Stay tuned...


Original Post (12/7/2010 at 3:05 pm):  Do you remember the days when the Cliff Lee sweepstakes was a two team race?  Well, those days are long gone--maybe.  The Nationals...yes, the same Nationals that just gave Jayson Werth a 7 year $126M contract...have re-expressed interest in Cliff Lee.  Well, kinda sorta.  Not really.  Perhaps?  Ok, I'll be honest, no one has a clue.  Here's a recap of this morning's events:

10:00 am:  Buster Olney tweeted that there was a lot buzz around the Winter Meetings that the Nationals were going to offer Lee a seven year contract.  That makes sense.  Any time you can give a 32 year old pitcher a seven year contract worth around $22-25M a year, you have to do it, right?   After all, they're flush with cash after all of the money they saved by signing Jayson Werth to a team friendly deal.  Anywho... 

Yes, that was sarcasm.  In case you couldn't tell.

11:00 am:  All hell breaks loose.  First, there were reports that the Nats weren't going to offer Lee seven years, but would still likely make an offer.  Then, there was a report the Nats would go to seven years because they knew the Yankees wouldn't.*  Up is down.  Left is right.  Cats and dogs are playing together.  What is the world coming to?   

* Ok.  Before I go any further, if the Yankees aren't willing to go to seven years for a pitcher they're obsessed with, then the Nats (or any other team) probably shouldn't either.  That should send up a huge red flag.  It's possible...albeit slightly...that you're overpaying for the player. 

12:00 pm:  Finally, Jon Heyman laid this baby to rest when he let everyone know that the Nats weren't looking to sign Cliff Lee.  Or so we thought...

1:00 pm:  Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post tweeted that the Nationals and Lee are "maintaining dialogue."  I'm not even sure what that means.  "Maintaining dialogue" could mean they've made a play date where they intend to practice french kissing while braiding each other's hair and eating cookie dough ice cream.  

2:00 pm:  Jon Heyman re-enters the fun when he shares that Lee has at least one seven year offer around $20-25M per season--but neither the Nats (because they may or not be involved) nor the Yankees (who won't go higher than six years) made the offer.  Who else could it be?  I can't believe it's the Rangers because they were rumored to have only offered him four years.  I have a hard time believing they went from four years to seven in the manner of a couple of days.  Who else could it be?  No one else has been rumored to be hot after Lee.  Do I smell a mystery team?

3:00 pm:  Buster Olney reports the Yankees are prepared to offer Lee a six year deal, but likely won't go to a seventh.  Why?  They have standards.  They never give out long term deals that take a player past age 37.  Oh wait...

That brings us up to date on Cliff Lee.  I hope you're thoroughly confused.  I know I am.

Yankees Meet with Cliff Lee

The Yankees have officially kicked off the Cliff Lee Winter Meetings bonanza by meeting with him early this morning.  Brian Cashman had this to say:

"While we're in the same area, I'm going to try to meet with him as much I possibly can."

Do you think there's any chance Cliff Lee isn't the Yankees top priority?  Yeah, didn't think so. 

Cliff Lee is reportedly looking for at least a six year contract.  To date, the Yankees have offered him five years.  I can see the Yankees playing hard to get by holding steady at five years for most of the week before finally increasing their offer to six years.  When it comes down to it, the Yankees aren't going to let a year (or a couple million dollars) get in the way of them signing the player they covet.  After all, they are the Yankees.  When was the last time the Yankees didn't sign the free agent they identified as their primary target?  At this point it's only a matter of time before the inevitable occurs.

Cliff Lee Front Gets Warmer

The Wall Street Journal reports (via the Associated Press), that Rangers President Nolan Ryan and General Manager Jon Daniels have made a second cameo at Cliff Lee’s home in Arkansas.  While the Rangers have refused to confirm whether they’ve made Lee an official offer, several reports indicate they’re prepared to offer him a five year deal. 

Let’s be honest.  This is the Rangers second trip to visit with Lee.  They’re not going out there to play Wii Sports and eat chocolate chip cookies.  They’re going with a business purpose.  There are reports the Yankees have already made an official offer.  (This is the 5 year $115-120M deal I mentioned the other day.)  If the Rangers are serious about retaining Lee, they better have gone out to Arkansas armed with a contract offer.  If not, then perhaps the Rangers aren’t as smart as I originally thought. 

Would the Rangers be Better Off Without Lee?

If you agree with Ken Rosenthal, the answer is yes. 

“Don’t get me wrong, Lee would be a tremendous asset. But for five years, $120 million or whatever the final price will be ... well, let the Yankees take that gamble. Lee will turn 33 next Aug. 30 — in the first year of his new deal.”

Rosenthal brings up an excellent point.  As good as Cliff Lee’s been over the past three seasons, he’s not a spring chicken anymore.  At some point over the course of his next contract, Lee’s performance will to start to decline.  Will it be in 2011?  Perhaps it will be 2014?  We don’t know.  Sooner rather than later, Father Time is going to step in and take over. 

Based on Lee’s skill set and performance baseline, I think he’ll likely be an ace quality pitcher (or near that) for the next two seasons.  After that, we’re probably looking at him being middle of the rotation starting pitcher.  While that’s certainly not a bad thing, it’s not exactly what the Rangers will have agreed to pay him $22-24M per season to provide.  At that price, they’ll need him to be an ace.  Unfortunately, given Lee’s age, that’s not a reasonable expectation. 

This is what makes re-signing Cliff Lee such a dangerous proposition for the Rangers.  The Rangers are a mid-market club.  As such, it’s foolish for them to commit 20-25% of their payroll (or more) to a single player.  The last time the Rangers did so was during the 2000-2001 offseason when they signed A-Rod and Chan Ho Park to massive contracts totaling more than $300M.  This not only destroyed their payroll flexibility, but also led to a long rebuilding process. 

While I understand the new ownership group’s desire to make a big splash this offseason, the smartest move might be to concede Cliff Lee to the Yankees.  The money saved on Lee could be used to fill other holes they have on their roster.  For instance, the Rangers are in desperate need for a reliable bat at either first base, designated hitter, or both.  With the market glutted with 1B/DH types (Konerko, Lee, Pena, Branyan, Guererro), there some team-friendly short-term deals to be made this winter.  Also, as I mentioned yesterday, not signing Lee could open up the door to trading for Royals ace Zach Greinke. 

While signing Lee would certainly charge up the fan base, there are better ways for a mid-market club to spend $22-24M per season for the next five to seven years.  It’s usually best to avoid temptation (re-signing Lee), and follow the plan that got you to where you are now (patience, player development, and sound decision making).  After all, that plan led them to their first AL pennant in franchise history.

Lee Sweepstakes Start to Warm Up, Greinke Rumored as Likely Plan B

For a couple of weeks, the Cliff Lee front was eerily quiet.  Now, news is coming in fast and furious.  As George King reports, the Rangers are prepared to offer Lee a five year deal.   While I haven’t seen any reports indicating the average annual salary the Rangers are preparing to offer, I’d have to assume it’s in the $20M+ range.  At this point, any offer less than $20M per season is a complete waste of Lee’s time.  The Yankees have reportedly struck first, and offered him a five year deal in the $115-120M range.  That’s going to be a tough offer for the Rangers to top.  If the Rangers are going to be successful in their attempt to re-sign Lee, it will likely be on the strength of Arlington’s proximity to his home in Arkansas, and the lack of a state tax in Texas. 

While the Rangers are interested in retaining Lee, it doesn’t appear they’re willing to put all of their eggs in his basket.  They’re looking for a quick answer from Lee, and are prepared to look elsewhere if his re-signing doesn’t appear imminent.  This is a pretty smart move.  The Yankees are the odds on favorite to win the Lee sweepstakes, and Greenberg and Ryan won’t want to be left without a chair when the music stops. 

 

One place the Rangers could look to fill their starting pitching needs is with Royals ace Zach Greinke.  Several reports have him pegged as the Rangers primary Plan B target.  While Greinke isn’t nearly as sexy as Lee, he’d still be a good fit in Arlington.  He has above average command of four pitches, two of which are considered plus pitches per Fangraphs pitch value chart (fastball and slider).  Greinke does a good job with avoiding the long ball.  Since 2007, he’s produced an HR/FB rate of 7.1%, which is significantly below the league norm of 10.5%.  Assuming he can keep that up, his chances of success with the Rangers is pretty solid.  While I’m a little concerned with Greinke’s contact rate jumping from 77.7% to 82.8% between 2009 and 2010, part of that concern is offset by a 6% increase in his groundball rate (40.0% to 46.0%). 

Most importantly, Greinke is only scheduled to make $13.5M in each of the next two seasons, which is 40-50% less than what Lee is projected to make.  The nearly $10M saved by going with Greinke over Lee could be used to sign another important piece to the championship puzzle. 

Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Yankees are also kicking the tires on Greinke.  As with Texas, he’s likely to be their Plan B target in the unlikely event they don’t sign Lee.  That said, if Pettitte was to retire (rather than re-sign with the Yankees), it’s possible the Yankees would try to go after both starting pitchers.  Yikes!  Can you imagine facing a rotation of Sabathia, Lee, Greinke, and Hughes in the playoffs (with Burnett out of the bullpen)?  That’s really scary thought...

Cliff Lee Not Taking Offers...For Now

If you believe Jon Heyman, Cliff Lee's agent has told teams that he's not taking offers at this time.  That said, Lee is still meeting with teams.  Confusing, no?  Last week, he met with Yankees GM Brian Cashman.  Yesterday, he met with Rangers GM Jon Daniels, team president Nolan Ryan, and principle owner and CEO Chuck Greenburg.  There's nothing like bringing out the big guns to make an impression.  Then again, when you're competing with the Yankees on the free agent market, you need to one-up them every chance you get. 

I can understand why some people would be confused as to why Lee and his agent aren't willing to at least entertain offers at this time.  On the surface, it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.  At the very least, they can obtain information, and get the ball rolling on negotiations.  Then again, Lee has the market cornered on top tier free agent starting pitchers.  After Lee, the best starting pitchers on the market include Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook (re-signed by the Cardinals for two years), Jorge De La Rosa, Andy Pettitte (who will either retire or re-sign with the Yankees), and Hiroki Kuroda (who just re-signed with the Dodgers).  It's not exactly an awe inspiring bunch, is it?  Three of the pitchers are unobtainable, and the other two are injury risks.  Cliff Lee not only holds a winning hand, but has great position as well.  He and his agent know it too.  They control the market, and can dictate who and when offers are obtained.  When you think about it, it's pretty smart. 

More Cliff Lee Rumors

I can already hear Yankee fans rejoicing.  Hardball Talk's Craig Calcaterra heard a juicy little rumor about Cliff Lee's concerns about pitching in Texas. 

"Over the past few weeks we’ve heard all manner of things about what may or may not motivate Cliff Lee.  His wife hates New York. He’s a country boy who wants to stay near Arkansas. Yankee fans are rude, rude rude!

I think this kind of thing is somewhat meaningless — the contract offers are ultimately going to decide where he goes — but let’s add one more non-monetary consideration to the pile:  a little birdie tells me that Lee was not terribly happy in Texas, and that he is particularly concerned about how his body would hold up pitching an entire season in the North Texas heat.

It’s not clear if his unhappiness in Texas has to do specifically with the heat, if it also involves discombobulation over the fact that he was traded there in mid-season or if he just hates the place. And yeah, that’s second hand info. And yeah, I’m sure Lee and his agent will deny because they have absolutely zero interest in limiting their market right now, but it is what I’m hearing and you can place as much weight on it as you’d like."

Before Yankee fans get overly excited and ordain him as the next great Yankee, let's put this in a little perspective.  As I said earlier this week, 90% of the offseason rumors we hear end up not being true.  I trust Craig's judgment.  I've been reading his work for a couple of years, and I've never found him to be someone that purposely tries to mislead people.  If this didn't come from a reliable source, I don't think he would've considered mentioning it.  That said, it's secondhand news.  Really, all this does is counteract the rumor that Cliff Lee wasn't interested in playing for the Yankees because of the way his wife was treated during the ALCS.  For all we know, this could be Team Cliff Lee's attempt at trying to bring more teams to the bargaining table.  Then again, it could be true.  He very well might have serious reservations about how he'll hold up in the Texas heat over the next several seasons.  It's not like Texas has been successful with developing and bringing in quality free agent pitchers over their nearly 40 year history.  All I'm saying is that with every rumor you hear over the next couple of months, be a little skeptical.

Are the Nationals Really Interested in Cliff Lee?

According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, they are.  An anonymous baseball insider said the following:

"They're going to step up and try to get a top free agent.  They'd like to make a splash.''

I have no doubt the Nationals would like to make a splash, but I like to live in a reality-based world.  The Yankees seem to need to sign Lee.  After missing the World Series this year due to a shallow rotation, it appears they’re going to make him their primary focus.  Also, Lee has indicated that he’s interested in the idea of re-signing with the Rangers.  While it’s unclear if Lee would be willing to take a home town discount for a team he’s only played with for four months, Arlington is closer in proximity to his home than every other one of his potential suitors. 

Where do the Nationals fall in this situation?  They’re clearly stuck on the other side of the fence looking in.  While they made significant improvements last year, they still have to be looked at as a non-contender that’s still two to three years (at least) away from contending.  They have some interesting building blocks, but many of those building blocks (outside of Ryan Zimmerman) are still a few years away from competing at a high level.  Jordan Zimmerman is a potential number two starter, but he just came back from Tommy John surgery.  Stephen Strasburg has staff ace written all over him, but he’s just started recovering from TJ.  There’s no guarantee how he’ll pitch after he recovers.  Then you have Bryce Harper.  As good as he projects to be, he’s only 17 years old.  He could end up a superstar, or he could be one of the biggest busts of all time.  It’s way too early to tell at this point. 

Despite the strides they made last season, the Nationals still have a lot of rebuilding left to do.  Trying to outbid the Yankees on a big time free agent pitcher is not the smartest move for them to make at this time.  Even if they succeeded in signing Lee, its unlikely Lee would still be an ace quality pitcher by the time the Nats were ready to contend.  The Nationals best move is to be shrewd and patient when it comes to making player moves, not bold and reckless.