Prospect Lists and Organizational Rankings

For those of you who are prospect geeks, today was a pretty exciting day.  MLB.com released their list of Top 50 prospects, and ESPN's Keith Law released his organizational rankings. 

Starting out with the mlb.com list, Angels outfield prospect Mike Trout takes the top spot.  Trout has tremendous upside, and looks to be a true five tool prospect.  With blazing speed, good power to the gaps, and excellent defensive instincts, Trout has all of the makings of a star.  At 19, he still has quite a bit of development remaining, but it wold not surprise me in the least two see him in the majors at some point during the 2012 season.   Rounding out the top five are SP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays), OF Bryce Harper (Nationals), OF Dominic Brown (Phillies), and 2B/OF Dustin Ackley (Mariners).   

In Keith Law's organizational rankings, the Kansas City Royals take the top spot.  This is such a non-surprise, that it's almost anti-climactic.  As I mentioned in my post on the Royals farm system a couple of weeks ago, the Royals have three top hitting prospects in Mike Moustakis, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Meyers, and a plethora of top pitching prospects including Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, and John Lamb (among others).  To say that the farm system is stacked is an understatement of mass proportions.  Rounding out the top five are the pitching rich Tampa Bay Rays, the Atlanta Braves, the Toronto Blue Jays, and (surprisingly) the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Damon and Manny to Rays

Apparently the Rays are trying to corner the market on former Red Sox. 

According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Rays have come to terms with both Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.  Damon's deal is reported to be for one year at $5.25M, plus $750K in attendance incentives.  I'm a little bit confused by the inclusion of an incentive clause.  While Damon was one of the game's most popular players for several years, I don't think anyone would consider him to be an attendance draw.  So far, I haven't seen any reports indicating the thresholds of said incentives, but I'm sure those are forthcoming.  Considering the mass exodus of star players from last year's division championship team (Crawford, Soriano, Garza, Pena, Bartlett, Balfour, etc.), I can envision a scenario where the Rays attendance might drop--especially if they come out of the gate slowly.  As far as I'm concerned, he has a slightly greater than a zero percent chance of cashing in on those incentives.  Still, as I mentioned earlier, the Damon to the Rays appears to be a wise choice by both parties.

Manny's deal will be a one year contract worth $2M guaranteed.  Yes, you read that right.  Manny's salary is dropping from $20M last season to $2M this season.  That's quite a change in fortune.  While it's not shocking that he took a drastic pay cut, it is a little surprising that the cut was so large.  Last season Manny produced 1.6 WAR between the Dodgers and White Sox in 320 plate appearances.  Johnny Damon, on the other hand, produced 1.9 WAR in nearly twice the number (613) of plate appearances.  All things considered, Manny was much more productive during his playing time than Damon. 

So why did Damon get three times as much (when factoring in the incentives) than Manny?  I can think of three possible reasons.  One, Manny was less than impressive during his 24 game stint with the White Sox when he hit only .261/.420/.319 in 88 plate appearances.  (Yes, it was a small sample size, but it's amazing how many people, including smart baseball people, ignore those kinds of facts.)  Two, while Damon can't be trusted to play the outfield regularly, he can still play in a pinch.  Manny, on the other hand, has the range of a paraplegic and the attention span of a teenager suffering from ADD.  Three, Manny had worn out his welcome in not one, but two cities, thus cementing himself as a certified clubhouse cancer. 

Regardless of Manny's lesser qualities, his signing is quite a coup.  If can repeat his season long production from last season, this contract had be considered the odds on favorite to win the "Bargain of the Offseason" award.

Rays, Damon Talking Deal

According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the Tampa Bay Rays are talking to Johnny Damon about bringing him to Florida to fill their perpetually vacant designated hitter slot.  Despite an early report by Yahoo! Sports Tim Brown who made the deal seem imminent, a source close the negotiations disputed the report calling it "very premature."  While that doesn't mean a deal couldn't get done within the next few hours, it's probably more reasonable to expect a deal to get done by midway through next week, if at all.   

Along with Manny Ramirez and Vladmir Guerrero, Damon is one of the last name brand free agents still on the market.  Now considered to be an aging-DH type who can only play the field sparingly, the chances Damon receives any multi-year offers is highly unlikely.  The smart odds are with Damon eventually agreeing to a one year deal worth between $2-4M.  Depending on how he produces next season, could end up being a solid bargain.

Outside of a few scattered reports, it's been a pretty quiet winter for Damon.  The Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, and Dodgers have expressed some interest, but it was mostly just the "kicking the tires" kind of interest.  Outside of the Angels, none of those teams were likely to give Damon the kind of playing time he desires. 

Damon looks to be a good potential fit in Tampa.  He's a left-handed batter in a division that's becoming increasingly right-handed in terms of pitching.  Last season, Damon put up a .270/.352/.408 line against righties.  It's solid, but not spectacular.  Going into his age-37 season, this is what we should come to expect from here on out.

Cubs Acquire Garza from Rays

According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, the Rays and Cubs have completed an eight player trade that results in pitcher Matt Garza being shipped to the north side of Chicago. 

From the Rays perspective, I love the trade.  While Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA) may’ve appeared like he was finally harnessing his ace-potential, there is reason to believe his 2010 performance was a mirage.  His strikeout rate plummeted, while his contact rate jumped.  His ERA outperformed his FIP by half of a run.  He continued to exhibit greater flyball tendencies, which will likely lead to more home runs in the future.  Could he turn these indicators around?  Sure, he’s only 27.  But why take the risk when you have a surplus of young pitching?  Jeremy Hellickson has ace quality stuff, and should have no problem taking Garza’s spot in the rotation.  Top prospect LHP Matt Moore should be ready by mid to late-2011 should they need re-enforcements down the stretch.  Rays GM Andrew Friedman is selling high, which is exactly what he should do. 

In exchange for Garza, they’ll receive five prospects:  RHP Chris Archer, OF Brandon Guyer, and SS Hak-Ju Lee, OF Sam Fuld, and C Robinson Chirinos.  Archer appears to be the gem of the deal.  According to Baseball America, he has two plus-plus pitches, which includes a fastball that touches 96-97 and a slider that dives out of the zone.  His control (4.1 BB/9 rate between high-A and AA ball in 2010) isn’t tremendous, but he’s only 21.  Should he harness his control, I don’t see any reason why he won’t end up being a solid number two quality starter in the major leagues.  Guyer and Lee both project to be solid major league players, having been given a solid “B” grade from John Sickels of minorleaguebaseball.com.

From the Cubs perspective, I don’t really get it.  Then again, Jim Hendry is their General Manager, so most of his moves are down right confusing.  In the short-term, it kind of makes sense.  They do need starting pitching, but there are better, more efficient ways of fulfilling your team’s needs.  This was the kind of trade a legitimate playoff contender makes.  The Cubs are not a legitimate playoff contender.  They’re an old team on the decline with a bloated $144M payroll.  If anything, they should be doing everything in their power to shed payroll and rebuild their already weak farm system—not trade away three of their top ten prospects.  It’s bad business. 

There are probably thousands (if not millions) of Cubs fans rejoicing at the news of their team acquiring Garza, but I’m not really sure why.  This move gets the Cubs further away (not closer) from the elusive World Series championship they crave.  In reality, Cubs fans should be calling for Hendry’s ouster.

Longoria Wants Rays to Make it Rain

The 2010-2011 free agent market has turned into a high class strip club.  The free agents are the strippers, and the owners/GMs are the patrons making it rain.  When average major league players like relief pitcher Joaquin Benoit gets 3 years $16M and utility infielder Juan Uribe gets 3 years $21M, it shouldn't be surprising that several non-free agents, like Rays third baseman Evan Longoria, also want a piece of the action. 

"Tampa Bay is the place I want to be for the rest of my career if I can," Longoria, 25, said. "If there's an opportunity to do something like that, I would think long and hard about it."

(snip)

Though free agent prices are soaring, as evidenced by the $142 million that former teammate Carl Crawford got from the Red Sox, Longoria said he would be interested in an extension such as his friend Troy Tulo­witzki worked out to stay with the Rockies, albeit for $119 million covering six seasons.

In 2008, with only six days of major league service time, Longoria signed a 6 year $17.5M extension that included a $7.5M option for 2014 and matching $11.5M options for 2015 and 2016.  Considering the value Longoria has provided so far (19.6 WAR, $84.8M),* calling this contract "team friendly" might be the understatement of the decade.  So, yeah.  I'm not surprised he wants to rework his deal.

* Longoria made $2M total between 2008-2010.  

I think the Tulowitski contract extension Mark Topkin pointed to in his article is probably a good comparison for Longoria.  Longoria is only 25 years old, and looks as if he'll be one of the top players at his position for the next 7-10 seasons.  Like Tulowitski, he hits for power, average, gets on base, plays good defense, and runs the bases well.  If I were Longoria's agent, I would use Tulowitski's contract as the benchmark and move from there. 

That said, it's a little early to be talking about a contract extension for Longoria.  No?  He still has three guaranteed seasons remaining on his current deal, plus three very team friendly options.  Where's the Rays motivation to rework his deal?  They're getting a tremendous return on an incredibly talented player.  The money they save on Longoria's salary can be used to fill other holes around the diamond.  By signing Longoria to a larger extension (and presumably buying out his three option years), the small market Rays would likely have a much tougher time putting together a championship caliber team on the field during Longoria's prime seasons.  The Rays should use this situation to their advantage, not give it away.

When Longoria signed his contract extension in April of 2008, he took a huge risk.  On one hand, he assured himself of financial security and stability.  On the other hand, he greatly reduced his potential for maximizing his baseball related earnings.  For example, had he signed a contract right now, he could've looked forward to making $120M over the next six seasons rather than the $42M he'll probably make.

Hopefully, his agent made him aware of this risk when he signed the contract.  If not, Longoria should probably be in the market for a new agent.

Three Teams in on Garza

It’s always strange watching a talented, promising team be dismantled before your very eyes.  The Rays are no different.  After two AL East championships and an AL pennant in three seasons (no easy feat), the Rays have become a victim of their own success.  Gone is speedy left-fielder Carl Crawford who took his talents to Boston for the bargain basement price of $142M over seven years.  Gone is slugging first baseman Carlos Pena who found someway to spin a .196/.325/.407, 1.0 WAR season into a 1 year $10M deal from the Cubs.  Gone is the former slick fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett who was shipped to San Diego for a couple of fringe relief pitchers in their mid-20s.  Now, it appears that Red Sox slaying starting pitcher, Matt Garza, is also on his way out of Tampa.

The Tampa Bays are reportedly in talks with the Cubs, Brewers, and Rangers regarding Garza.  The Rays are said have targeted outfield prospect Lorezno Cain from the Brewers. No word yet on who they might be interested in obtaining from the Cubs or Rangers.  Talks are still in the early stages, so we probably won’t see a lot of movement on this front for a few days—if at all.

On the surface, Garza appears to have had a very 2010 good season, putting up a 15-10 record with a 3.91 ERA in 204-2/3 innings.  Those numbers are a bit misleading though.  Garza saw a huge drop in K/9 rate (21% decrease from 8.38 in 2009 to 6.60), which not surprisingly corresponded with an increased contact rate (80.9% to 83.7%).  Additionally, his ground ball rate continued its steady, yet rapid decline from a career high mark of 47.7% with the Twins in 2007 to 35.8% in 2010.  Not surprisingly, his decrease in groundball rate as been accompanied by an increase in home run rate.  These two factors (strikeout and groundball rates) partially resulted in Garza posting a rather pedestrian 4.51 xFIP and 1.8 WAR. 

The good news is that Garza is only 27, and will probably bounce back in 2011.  His velocity is still strong, and his fastball is still considered to be a “plus” pitch per Fangraphs pitch run values.  If he can rediscover his slider (which produced a lot of whiffs in 2009), I see no reason why Garza can’t be a productive number two or excellent number three starter.  If not, he’ll likely become an overpriced back of the rotation starter before too long.