Bautista Scores Big Contract

 

In case you missed it yesterday, the Blue Jays and power hitting 3B/OF Jose Bautista finalized a five year contract worth $65M.  According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Blue Jays will pay Bautista $8M in 2011 and $14M per season from 2012-2015.  The deal includes a club option in 2016 for $14M with a $1M buyout. 

With Bautista entering his third and final season of arbitration eligibility, he went for broke and submitted a salary request of $10.5M; the Blue Jays countered with $7.6M.  The extension makes those proposals meaningless, and allows both parties to avoid a potentially ugly arbitration hearing.  The deal buys out Bautista’s first four (or perhaps, five) seasons of free agency.  As a result, the earliest he can become a free agent is after his age-34 season.

Around the industry, the feelings about this deal have been mixed.  If you think he’s likely to repeat his big time power production, you love the deal.  If you think the 54 home runs he hit in 2010 were somewhat of a fluke, then you probably hate the deal.  There’s not a whole lot of wiggle room.  

Personally, I think the deal's a huge gamble.  I have serious doubts as to whether Bautista can sustain his elevated fly ball (54.1% in 2010 vs a 45.8% career) and HR/FB rates (21.7% in 2010 vs 13.8% career).  The whole season just screams "outlier" to me.  Given his previous career norms, I think it's much more reasonable to expect him to hit 25-30 home runs per season over the next few years.  Will that be enough to justify paying him $65M over the next few years?  I don't know.  That depends on how you project his position (3B or OF), ability to stay in the lineup, play defense, and ability to get on base.  I tend to think he'll justify the deal, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.  Why?  Assuming salary inflates at a rate of 5% per season, Bautista only needs to provide 11.8 fWAR over the next five seasons to justify his contract, which averages out to be just over 2.36 WAR per season.  In other words, he needs to prove that he's worthy of being a starting quality hitter/defender over the next five years.  I think he can do it.

But like I said, I wouldn't bet my life on it.

Napoli on the Move...Again

It looks like Mike Napoli is on the move again.  According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Blue Jays have traded their recently acquired catcher to the Texas Rangers in exchange for relief pitcher Frank Francisco.

I have to admit that I'm a little bit surprised by this trade, but that's mostly because it's rare to see a player traded twice within the same week.  Napoli doesn't seem like the ideal fit in Texas.  Currently, the Rangers already have players encumbered at his natural positions with Yorvit Torrealba at catcher, Mitch Moreland at first base, and Michael Young at DH.  Still, despite the positional roadblock, I don't foresee Napoli having any problems accumulating 500 plate appearances next season.  My best guess is that Napoli will serve as the Rangers version of Victor Martinez:  play first base against lefties, split time at catcher with Torrealba, and occasionally spell Michael Young at DH.  I should note that this definitely ends any chance Vladmir Guerrero had of re-signing with the Rangers.

Other than the positional complication, this trade should benefit Napoli.  The Ballpark at Arlington seems to play into his one natural offensive skill--the ability to hit home runs.  With Napoli going into his age-29 season and moving to a ballpark that heavily favors power hitters, it wouldn't surprise me to see Napoli breach the 30 homer threshold for the first time next season.  Also, moving away from the Angels could help Napoli rediscover the patience and plate discipline skills that dissipated over the course of his tenure in Anaheim.   If he can rediscover his ability to draw walks, he would become a much more bigger offensive threat for the Rangers.

The Blue Jays acquiring Frank Francisco strikes me as being a little bit redundant.  After losing closer Kevin Gregg and lefty set-up man Scott Downs via free agency, understandably the Blue Jays wanted to rebuild their bullpen.  In doing so, they retained Jason Frasor, signed Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch via free agency, and have now traded for Francisco.  While all four pitchers are quality relievers, I can't help but notice they're all right handed.  Personally, I would've thought that if the Blue Jays were going to trade for another relief pitcher, it might have been a lefty.  Then again, that's just me. 

Francisco's role appears to be unclear at the moment.  Initially, there were reports that Octavio Dotel would close for the Blue Jays in 2011.  With Francisco, a former closer, in the mix, I'm not sure that report remains as true today as it did last month.  Francisco has very good stuff, and tends to miss bats at a high rate.  While he walks a few too many batters to ever be an elite level closer, but not enough that he couldn't be effective in the role over the long haul.  My guess is that he'll be given every opportunity to wrestle ninth inning duties away from Dotel during Spring Training and the first part of the season. 

Frank Francisco produced a 3.12 FIP with a 60/18 K/BB ratio, and 1.0 fWAR in 52-2/3 innings.

What They're Saying About the Wells Trade

As I mentioned yesterday, Twitter was afire with tweets regarding the shocking Vernon Wells trade.  I thought it would be fun to share some of those tweets.


Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues - If they send Napoli and Rivera to Toronto, I hear the Angels will fill the extra roster spot by picking up Albert Haynesworth.

Ed Price of MSNBC - Maybe MSNBC was able to dump all of Olbermann's contract on the Angels.

Evan Brunell of Fire Brand and CBS Sports - Wait, the Jays only kicked in $5 million!? AA must be partying hard.

Joe Posnanski of SI - Hunter, Abreu, Wells, Piniero ... Have to say it. The Angels are absolutely favorites to win the 2002 World Series again.

Alex Speier of WEEI.com - So #angels wouldn't pay crawford $20.3M for ages 29-35, but will pay Wells $21.5M for ages 32-35?

Keith Law of ESPN - Better ideas than trading for Vernon Wells' entire contract: Dressing up like an elf and rappeling down an office building

Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus - The Wells trade is so seismically bad it forces us to re-calibrate the bar for all other trades. KC's trade for Yuni gets upgraded to an F+.

Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus - Wait, when did Bill Bavasi retake power in Anaheim?

Jon Heyman of SI - still a fantastic job by #jays anthopoulos to unload all but $5 mil of wells' absurd pact. early frontrunner for exec of yr

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN - I think "Little Fockers'' got better reviews than Tony Reagins' acquisition of Vernon Wells and his $86M contractual obligation.

Craig Calcaterra of NBC Hardball Talk - No cash in the Wells deal. It ought to be a fun press conference.

Jonah Keri of Fangraphs - Also, Alex Anthopoulos is a ninja: http://3.ly/km98 / AL East should just secede and form its own omnipotent nation.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs - I did not think it was possible for the Angels off-season to get any worse. Boy, was I wrong.

Larry Stone of Seattle Times - If Angels are picking up all $86 million owed Wells, plus giving up Napoli and maybe Rivera, they're nuts

Erik Manning of Fangraphs - There is not a snark strong enough to describe the Wells-for-Napoli deal, at least at the moment.

As you can see, everyone's reaction to the trade was rather scathing and snarky.  There is not a single person on my Twitter roll that liked the trade--and no, I didn't just conveniently choose not to include them.  Nice job Angels.  You've given Brian Sabean a reason to believe he can unload Barry Zito's contract. 

Blue Jays to Kick in $5M with Wells to Angels

Despite reports to the contrary last night, it appears the Blue Jays will be kicking in some money into the Wells to Anaheim deal.   According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Blue Jays will be sending $5M to the Angels to help cover Wells's contract--or as Heyman eloquently puts it, "about a month and a half" of the remaining four years.  Yikes!

This is a major coup for the Blue Jays and their GM Alex Anthopolous as they somehow managed to spin one of the most untradable contracts in baseball history into a power hitting catcher and league average starting corner outfielder.  Usually when a team has the opportunity to trade away a bad contract, it's usually for another bad contract.  (Think Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva)  Not so in this case.  Rather than face the next four years of having to pay Wells $86M, Blue Jays instead get two relatively cheap players both of whom are one year away from free agency.  To say that the Angels and GM Tony Reaggins got fleeced would be like saying Bernie Madoff accidentally misplaced the $40B he received from investors.  The Angels got flat out robbed by the Blue Jays.

By the way, did anyone else realize that the AL East is absolutely stacked with great GMs?  When you can make a case that Orioles President/GM Andy McPhail is your weakest link, you know you're living in a world with titans.  It's almost unfair to the rest of the league.

Napoli to Jays for...Wells?

UPDATE (1/21/2011 at 9:14 p.m.):  And the hits keep on coming.  Did Jim Hendry get hired to be the Angels GM while I was sleeping last night?

According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Blue Jays are not kicking in any money in the deal sending Vernon Wells to the Angels.  In case, you've forgotten, Wells has four years and $86M remaining on the seven year $126M deal he signed in December 2006.   To date, Wells has only produced 5.5 WAR under the current deal.  To say he's woefully underperformed would be an understatement of mass proportions. 

In case you're keeping score, the Angels have a rather expensive outfield next season with Wells making $23M, Hunter making $18M, Matthews making $11M, and (likely) Peter Bourjos making around $500K.  All told, they're spending around $52.5M in exchange for $32M in performance based value (projected).  Oh, and Gary Matthews, Jr. isn't even on the team anymore.  Simply awful.

This trade has to go down as one of the worst in recent memory.  Great move by the Blue Jays.   

UPDATE (1/21/2011 at 9:02 p.m.):  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels will be sending outfielder Juan Rivera to the Blue Jays alone with Mike Napoli.   Last season, Rivera produced a .314 wOBA, 15 home runs, and 0.5 WAR.

Original Post (1/21/2011 at 7:25 p.m.):  Well, I certainly wasn't expecting this.  About an hour ago, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that Mike Napoli had been traded to the Blue Jays.  This report set the Twitter world afire with tweets questioning the Angels motivation and direction.  After missing out on Crawford, Lee, and Beltre, trading one of their only offensive forces seemed like a really bad move.

It's been long known that despite Napoli's offensive prowess, he'd fallen out of favor with Angels manager Mike Scioscia who prefers the light-hitting defensive oriented Jeff Mathis behind the dish.  Rumors started flying late last season about Napoli potentially being traded to the Red Sox at the August 31st waiver deadline, but nothing ever materialized.  Rumors persisted into the offseason, but again, they fizzled out.  Now, amidst the backdrop of a silent Angels front office, they finally make the move.

So what prompted such swift action?  Rosenthal opines, and I tend to agree, that Napoli's arbitration request likely set the whole process in motion.  According to reports, Napoli requested $6.1M, and the Angels countered with $5.3M.  Considering the chilly relationship between the two parties, it's pretty likely they wouldn't have come to an agreement before the mid-February deadline.  Thus, they would've been forced to plead their case before an arbitrator.  Despite the downturn in Napoli's triple slash stats (.238/.316/.468) last season, he still managed to mash 26 home runs in 453 at bats.  An arbitrator likely would've looked at Napoli's 26 home run, and given the man his money.  If Napoli was going to be a starting player next season, a $6.1M salary would probably not have been an issue, but that's not the case.  First baseman Kendry Morales is healthy, and should be ready to start the season.  Jeff Mathis is firmly entrenched as the team's primary catcher.  The Angels have taken serious looks at signing either Manny Ramirez or Vlad Guerrero to fill their DH needs.  Unless someone gets hurt, there doesn't appear to be a lot of playing time for Napoli.  Thus, he had to go.

Now, here comes the really surprising part of this trade.  According to a source close to the trade talks, Blue Jays center fielder Vernon Wells will be included in the trade.  Talk about burying a lead.  Oops.  What makes this so shocking is that Wells had what was widely considered to be one of the most untradeable contracts in baseball.  Considering Arte Moreno's recent frugality with regards to offering large contracts to big named free agents, it strikes me as odd that he'd be willing to trade for a 32 year old outfielder that has four years and $68M remaining on his current seven year $126 albatross of a deal.  Apparently offering $20M per season to an outstanding 29 year old outfielder (Crawford) is wrong, but paying a less talented 32 year old outfielder (Wells) $21.5M is just fine.  Then again, the Angels probably aren't absorbing the entire $86M remaining on Wells' contract.  So far, there's no word on how much of the contract the Blue Jays will have to eat.  Unless the Blue Jays have agreed to eat at least half, I'm not sure I understand how this benefits the Angels.

Despite the 4.0 WAR season Wells put up last season, he's been far from a "sure thing" when it comes to performance.  In the three seasons prior to 2010, he put up exactly 3.0 wins above the replacement level combined, including a 0.0 WAR in 2009.  Considering the ridiculous amount of money he earned during that time, that kind of production is unacceptable.  At 32, Wells doesn't do a whole lot of things well.  He doesn't hit for average, get on base, or play defense at an acceptable level in center field.  He does hit for power, but a lot of that power is derived from the homer happy environment that exists at the Rogers Center.  Angels Stadium is a neutral park, so we shouldn't expect to see a repeat performance of his 31 homer season in 2011.  As he continues to progress into his 30s, we should expect his skills to decline further, while his salary escalates.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this is a losing proposition for the Angels.  Considering the skill set Wells currently employs, it wouldn't surprise me to see him riding the bench (a la Gary Matthews Jr.) before the end of his contract.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Angels will be paying both Wells and Matthews Jr. next season.  Yikes!

Dotel to Close in Toronto

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, it looks like Octavio Dotel is being given an opportunity to seize the Blue Jays closer role.   His agent Dominic Torres had this to say:

"Octavio is excited about playing for a team that will give you the opportunity to close games in the strongest division in baseball."

As I said the other day, Dotel's always had nasty, strikeout inducing stuff worthy of the closer role.  His problem has always been control and a penchant for allowing home runs.  If he fails to hold down the closer role, the Blue Jays could always fall back on long-time bullpen stalwart Jason Frasor to assume the closer duties.   Stepping into the closer situation would not be new to Frasor, as he filled the role admirably at times during the 2004 and 2009 seasons.  Frasor,33, induces strikeouts, and solid control, and tends to give up more ground balls than fly balls.  All told, he might be a better option for the role than Dotel.

Dotel's contract is for one year $3.5M with an option for a second season at the same price, or a $750K buyout.  The deal will be finalized pending his physical that is scheduled to occur sometime next week.

Dotel Signs with Blue Jays

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, Octavio Dotel is close to reaching an agreement on a one year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.  The deal appears to be nearly identical to the contract he signed with Pittsburgh prior to the 2010 season, which was worth $3.2 M plus $500K in incentives.

With Scott Downs having signed with the Angels and Kevin Gregg exploring other options, it appears Dotel may be given an opportunity to close in Toronto.  At 37, Dotel still has whiff inducing stuff, which includes a lively fastball and sharp breaking slider.  For his career, he's racked up a career K/9 rate of 10.95 in 834 innings. 

The closer role is nothing new to Dotel.  He's encumbered the role a few times throughout his career with the Astros, Athletics, Royals, and Pirates with varying degrees of success.  Due to his penchant for issuing walks and allowing home runs, he's probably best suited as a seventh or eighth inning set up guy.  Still, you could definitely do worse than Dotel in the closer role--like Kevin Gregg, for example, who held the role for the Blue Jays last year. 

One of the Best Personnel Moves of the Year

In case you missed it, the Blue Jays made one of the best personnel moves I've seen all year.  The Boston Globe's Peter Abrahams has the scoop:

"Something has to be done about the AL East. There are way too many smart guys in the room.

Did you see what the Blue Jays did yesterday? They traded a PTBNL to Colorado for catcher Miguel Olivo then almost immediately declined his option and paid his $500,000 buyout.

Their plan is to apparently offer him arbitration, which he will decline, then take the supplemental first-round draft choice as compensation as Olivo will be a Type B free agent."

The AL East just keeps getting tougher and tougher, doesn't it?  It was bad enough with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all built to win 90-95 games.  Now, the Orioles and Blue Jays seem poised to join them.

To call this move savvy doesn't really do it justice.  It's borderline brilliant.  How brilliant?  Fangraphs Jack Moore can explain it far better than I can:

"The Jays now have five different players who could bring back draft pick compensation, with Olivo joining Jason Frasor, Scott Downs (both Type A), Kevin Gregg, and John Buck.

If the Jays offer arbitration and everybody declines – obviously the best case scenario – the Jays will come out of this with at least 5 supplemental draft pick and two second round picks. If Frasor and Downs were to go to a team with an unprotected pick – this year, the 19th pick, held by the Detroit Tigers, is the first unprotected pick – the Jays could pick up two more first rounders. In this ideal situation, the Jays could pick up an utterly massive haul, with eight picks in the top 50 of the draft. Said haul becomes even more impressive when we consider that the upcoming draft in 2011 is considered to be one of the deeper drafts of recent times, and far deeper than the 2010 draft."

Let's be honest, the Red Sox and Yankees have huge a financial advantage over the rest of the division.  If they make a mistake with a free agent signing, they can cover their mistake by trading that player away to another team, while absorbing the bulk of the remaining contract.  On the flip side, teams like the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays need to be smart and savvy.  They need to draft well, develop players through their farm system, and make smart, systematic, well timed trades and free agent signings.  While the Blue Jays strategy to stockpile draft picks may not work out as well as planned (see the Oakland A's 2002 draft where they had seven picks in the top 39), it definitely puts them in a great position to build an incredibly deep farm system.   With a deep farm system that produces quality prospects, the Blue Jays not only can build their team with young, cheap, high reward talent, but also use their surplus prospects to trade from a position of strength.  This move, while unconventional, puts the Blue Jays in an excellent position to succeed a few years down the road.