Baseball's Best Kept Secret

In today's New York Times, Tyler Kepner wrote a piece about Major League Baseball's best kept secret, Braves catcher Brian McCann. 

"McCann, whose three-run double made him the All-Star Game’s most valuable player last summer, is a .289 career hitter with a .360 on-base percentage. He has hit between 18 and 24 homers in each full season, and he was 6 for 14 (.429) in the Braves’ first-round playoff loss to the San Francisco Giants last fall. 

Even so, he remains something of a secret. As catchers go, Mauer is king, and Yadier Molina of St. Louis and Buster Posey of San Francisco have caught the last out of the World Series recently. The Braves have been defined by starting pitching, Chipper Jones and Bobby Cox. Jason Heyward gained fame as a rookie last season; he did a photo shoot for Sports Illustrated last week.

McCann’s consistency obscures him nationally, but he said he did not care. The aces have retired, Jones is nearly 39 and Fredi Gonzalez has replaced Cox as manager after 21 years. The Braves are becoming McCann’s team."

As I mentioned in my piece titled All Underrated Team, McCann is plagued by the fact he doesn't display any skills that stand out from the rest of his peers.  Rather than being great at one particular skill, McCann is instead good at everything.  As a result, he tends to be overshadowed by flashier catcher like Mauer, Molina, and Posey. 

Still, the Braves can't be disappointed with a player that consistently produces 4-5 WAR per season out of the catcher position.  Catchers who produce at that level, whether underrated or properly rated, are incredibly tough to find.  At 27, McCann figures to have at least 4-5 seasons of solid production remaining.  With already 23.9 WAR under his belt, it wouldn't be surprising to see him eclipse the 50 WAR barrier, thus making him a viable Hall of Fame candidate. 

Chipper Knocks Cover Off of the Ball

This is easily the coolest thing I've read all day.

Jones was taking batting practice at Turner Field on Tuesday morning when he caught one just right and literally knocked the cover off the ball. Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a picture of the ruined baseball while Jones did a little a bit of crowing after his big connection.

"That's what you've got to look forward to this year," he said.

As cool as it is that Chipper pulled off a Roy Hobbs, I seriously doubt that's what we "have to look forward to this year."  Historically, a player's age-39 season has not been particularly kind.  Of the ten qualifying players (at least 502 plate appearances), only seven have finished seven have finished the season above the replacement level.  Here's the list (as measured using Rally WAR):

1. Gary Gaetti (1998) - 2.7
2. Graig Nettles (1984) - 2.6
3. Lave Cross (1905) - 2.2
4. Wade Boggs (1999) - 1.9
5. Cal Ripken Jr. (2000) - 1.3
6. Jimmy Dykes (1936) - 1.1
7. Jimmy Austin (1919) - 0.3
8. Bert Campaneris (1981) - <0.1>
9. Mike Schmidt (1989) - <0.5>
10. Brooks Robinson (1976) - <1976>

While there are several Hall of Famers on the list, it's not exactly awe inspiring.  Still, it's important to note that Chipper's performance baseline is much higher than every other player on the list.  Assuming that baseline holds steady, it's not crazy to say that he could be a 3.0-3.5 win player in 2011.  Still, that's kind of a big "if".  Chipper is coming off of his second major knee injury (to the same knee), and it remains to be seen whether or not he'll retain his lateral mobility on defense.  If he does, that projection is obtainable.  If not, all bets are off.

Uggla, Braves Finally Complete Extension

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reports that Dan Uggla and the Braves have come to terms on a five year $62M contract extension.  The extension makes Uggla baseball's highest paid second baseman in terms of average annual salary, knocking Phillies all-star Chase Utley out of the top spot ($12.4M to $12.1M). 

In 2010, Uggla, 30, put up a triple slash line of .287/.369/.508 (.381 wOBA) with 33 home runs, 105 RBI, while providing 5.1 fWAR.  Uggla has been a defensive liability at second base throughout his career being worth -22.0 runs at the position per Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).  It should be interesting to see how the Braves handle the situation of changing positions as Uggla's defensive skills continue to regress.

Uggla, Braves Still Making Progress on Extension

Ten days ago, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe mentioned that the Braves and Uggla were near an agreement on a five year $60M contract extension.  As of today, they still haven't finalized the deal.  What's holding it up?  Cafardo has an update on the ongoing discussions.   

By the way, since we first reported that Uggla was closing in on a five-year, $61 million deal, talks have slowed as he sought a few more dollars. But a deal should get done the first week of January.

It's hard to imagine how much more Uggla can squeeze out of the Braves.  Uggla is a power hitting middle infielder.  Those types of players don't exactly grow on trees, so the Braves will likely pay a bit of a premium to retain his services long-term.  That said, Uggla is a below average defender at second base, and doesn't seem like a good bet to remain at the position past 2012 or 2013.  Considering Uggla's age (turning 31 in March), the Braves would be wise to not let the total value of Uggla's contract exceed five years $65M.  Uggla is a very talented player, but I'm highly skeptical of Uggla's ability to produce enough value to justify his salary in the last season or two of his next contract. 

Braves, Uggla Close to Five Year Contract

According to Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe, the Atlanta Braves are close to signing Dan Uggla to a five year extension expected to be worth $60M.

Last month, Uggla turned down a 4 year $48M contract from the Marlins, presumably because the Marlins were unwilling to add a fifth year to the contract.  As a result, the Marlins began exploring trade options.  With Uggla's offensive skill set, it wasn't difficult for them to find a willing trade partner.  Within a few days, the Marlins traded Uggla to the Braves in exchange for overrated utility infielder Omar Infante and erratic relief pitcher Mike Dunn.  At the time, it looked like a fantastic move by the Braves.  Now, not so much.

Uggla, 30, is an above average offensive second baseman.  While he doesn't hit for average (in part due to his his strikeout rate), he gets on base at an above average clip, and possesses excellent power for a middle infielder.  His defensive skills leave something to be desired.  While he has a strong arm, his range and hands are well below average.  It would probably behoove the Braves to consider moving Uggla to a position that's less physically demanding like third base or left field.

I can't help but wonder if it was the smartest idea for the Braves to give a second baseman with poor defensive skills a five year contract.  When his extension expires in 2015, Uggla will be 35 years old.  While Uggla might be an above average offensive player in 2010, it's unlikely he'll be playing at the same level when his contract expires.  Additionally, his already poor defensive skills at second base are likely to get worse. Moving him to another position not only lowers his value, but also makes it more difficult to justify his salary.  It probably would've a lot smarter for the Braves to hold the line at four years even if it meant possibly losing Uggla after 2011 to free agency.  As talented as Uggla is, his talent doesn't justify the risk of a five year contract.

Update: Uggla to Stay at Second, Prado Moves to Left

On Wednesday, I discussed a few of the myriad options facing the Braves now that they've acquired second baseman Dan Uggla from the Marlins.  Well, apparently they've made their decision.  David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Dan Uggla will remain at second base, while Martin Prado will move to left field.  That is, of course, unless Chipper Jones has a setback.  Then, Prado will play third. 

I have to admit that I'm not surprised.  Ok, maybe I am a little bit.  While Prado isn't a great defensive second baseman, he's definitely better than Uggla.  Looking at advanced metrics, Uggla has consistently been near the bottom of the league in UZR, Defensive Runs Saved, and Total Zone ratings in three out of the last four seasons.  So why did the Braves decide to keep Uggla at second base, despite all of the evidence? 

Well, for starters, Uggla has some star power.  He's a power hitting middle infielder who's going to be a free agent at the end of the season.  The Braves will likely be interested in bringing him back after 2011, so they're going to be as accommodating as possible in the interim. 

Second, a lot of Prado's value is tied up in his versatility.  Since 2006, Prado has started 31 games at first, 185 at second, 91 at third, 2 at shortstop, 3 in left, and 1 in right.  This versatility gives the Braves an incredible amount of roster flexibility when filling holes left by injured starting players.  Instead of filling a hole with a replacement level player, the Braves can fill it with Prado.  In actuality, having Prado serve as the super utility player probably puts the Braves in the best position to win--even if Uggla and his inferior defense are playing at second base.

Gee...That was Fast

It's amazing what just a few days can do.  Last week, the Marlins announced they'd cut off negotiations with All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla.  On Sunday, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports announced the Marlins were looking to deal Uggla quickly, preferably this week.  Today, the Marlins finalized a deal that would send Uggla to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for utility infielder Omar Infante and relief pitcher Mike Dunn.

This looks like a great deal for the Braves.  The only question is, where do they play Uggla?  Currently, Uggla's a second baseman, but he's widely considered to be below average defensively at the position.  The Braves already have Martin Prado at second.  Prado has experience playing first and third, so it's possible the Braves could move Prado to allow for Uggla to play second. 

Many scouts and analysts think a move to third base would be beneficial for Uggla, but Chipper Jones is entrenched there.  Jones is currently recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL he injured late in 2010.  Reports show that he's progressing on schedule, and should be ready to return by Spring Training.  Still, ACL injuries can be tricky, especially for soon to be 39 year old infielders.  While Jones has been solid defensively at third over the past few years, his post-surgery mobility could be compromised.  As a result, a move to first base in the short term might be beneficial for both Jones and the Braves.  This is my favorite scenario for the Braves.  It puts Uggla in a position to contribute to the team defensively, while allowing Jones to not have to worry about playing such a physically demanding position.  Also, it gives the Braves a little more time to allow for first base prospect Freddie Freeman to develop at AAA.   

The Braves have a few months to figure out where they want Uggla is going to play.  The key is that they got another solid bat in their lineup, which they sorely needed.  All they had to give up was Infante (who is a prime candidate to see a regression to the mean), and Dunn (who racks up the strikeouts, but lacks control).  I'm not sure what the Marlins were thinking when they accepted the trade.  Normally, they come out looking the smartest guys in the negotiating room.  This time, not so much.  Maybe they know something I/we don't know?  I'm not sure.  To me, it looks like they forced this one through.