Fuentes Finds a Home by the Bay

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Oakland A's and left-handed relief pitcher Brian Fuentes have come to terms on a two year deal expected to be worth around $10M with "lots of closing incentives."  The deal will be finalized, pending a physical.

Between the recent signings of Fuentes and Balfour, the A's bullpen looks much stronger than it did last week.  Still, I'm a bit confused by the "closing incentives" that are included in Fuentes's deal.  The A's already have Andrew Bailey, who is both younger and statistically superior to Fuentes, installed in the closer role.  While Bailey is coming off elbow surgery, recent reports have him on track to be fully recovered by the end of Spring Training.  Unless Bailey either fails to recover as planned, or struggles out of the gate, there doesn't appear to be a lot of opportunities for Fuentes to close games.  

I'm also surprised the the typically frugal A's were willing to give a $5M average annual salary to a 35 year old ex-closer.  Over the past two seasons, Fuentes has been a near replacement level player.  Based on his age and recent performance history, I don't see any reason to believe he'll rediscover the form that made him one of the best closers in baseball in 2008.*  In all likelihood, he'll provide between 0.3 and 0.6 wins above the replacement level in each of the next two seasons, which would make his performance based value closer to $2-3M per season.  When we look at it objectively, it seems like Beane and the A's paid a premium for Fuentes's name and reputation--not his recent performance.

* I want to go on record as saying that I have little faith in his 48 save performance with the Angels in 2009.  His high save total was entirely a function of opportunity.  There was not a closer in baseball that received more opportunities than the 55 Fuentes received that year.  The Angels typically play in a lot of close games, which lends itself to a lot of save opportunities.  Outside of his save totals, the rest of his numbers feel below his career norms - ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, contact rate, whiff rate, etc. 

This deal rounds out a pretty active offseason for the A's.  A's GM Billy Beane was aggressive in trying to sign third baseman Adrian Beltre (which didn't work out); traded for outfielders David DeJesus and Josh Willingham; signed DH Hideki Matsui to a one year contact; and strengthened their bullpen with the recent additions of power reliever Grant Balfour and lefty Brian Fuentes.  If the A's starting pitching can remain healthy and produce up to expectation, they could make a serious run at the Rangers for the AL West division crown.

Fuentes split his time between the Angels and Twins during the 2010 season producing 24 saves in 28 chances, a 3.85 FIP, and a 47/20 K/BB ratio in 48 innings. 

Rays Interested in Fuentes

Mark Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times confirms that the Rays are interested in bringing left-handed reliever Brian Fuentes to Tampa to be their closer in 2011. 

While Fuentes likely won't be as dominant as former Rays closer (and current free agent) Rafael Soriano, he should have no problems holding his own late in the game.  Fuentes, now 35 years old, isn't armed with a plus-fastball anymore, but it's still very effective.  His secondary pitches (slider and change-up) tend to be a bit of a mixed bag.  Despite being a side-arming lefty, Fuentes shouldn't be viewed as a LOOGY type of pitcher.  Over the past several years, he's been equally as effective against right-handers as he has been against left-handers.  Even if he doesn't remain in the closer role long term, he would have no problem fitting in as a left-handed set-up man in their bullpen. 

His 2.81 ERA in 2010 seems to be a bit of a mirage.  Fuentes was helped by a rather fortunate .227 batting average on balls in play, and an abnormally low 6.9% HR/FB ratio, despite allowing 58.5% of all batted balls to be hit in the air.  This makes him a prime candidate to see a healthy dose of regression to the mean in 2011.   I wouldn't be surprised to see his 2011 performance to be more closely aligned with 2009 than 2010. 

Fuentes is reportedly looking for a three year contract in the $15-18M range. Considering his age, current performance baseline, and likelihood for regression, committing three years is a pretty risky proposition.  While Fuentes will likely be fine in the closer role in 2011, the picture is much fuzzier in 2012 and beyond.  The Rays would be wise to try to negotiate a two year deal with a vesting third year option.

Eleven Teams Interested in Fuentes

According to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated via Twitter, there are eleven teams interested in signing left-handed relief pitcher Brian Fuentes.

while #redsox like fuentes, they have company. others w/some interest: tor, tb, colo, sea, minn, pitt, phil, milw, nyy & nym

Fuentes, a former closer for the Rockies and Angels, is reportedly looking for a three contract similar to the ones Joaquin Benoit and Scott Downs signed earlier in the offseason.  At this point in the offseason, a three year contract for that kind of money might be a tall order as most teams have spent the bulk of their money and are looking for bargains.

Last season, Fuentes pitched pretty well splitting time between the Angels and Twins going 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA (3.85 FIP) and a 47/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 48 innings.  While Fuentes could close for roughly 6-8 teams, most of the teams Heyman named as interested parties would likely use him in a role other than closer.  For example, the Red Sox would likely use him as a lefty-specialist with Papelbon, Bard, and Jenks already eating up the bulk of the high leverage innings.  The Yankees, Phillies, Rockies, and Brewers would use probably use him as their primary left-handed set-up man.  For the Twins and Mets, he'd serve not only as their primary set-up man, but also a reliable fall back option should their established closers need extra time recovering from their maladies (for Nathan it's physical, for K-Rod it's mental).  Only the Blue Jays, Pirates, Rays, and Mariners have potential closer openings.  Of those teams, Blue Jays currently have viable options in Dotel and Frasor already in the mix.  The other three teams are both low revenue clubs, and are unlikely to open their wallets wide enough to offer a three year deal worth $15-18M.

It looks like the player's market that was in full effect just a couple of weeks ago has shifted to more of a team friendly market.  Adrian Beltre, Carl Pavano, Rafael Soriano, and Grant Balfour are among the players, in addition to Fuentes, who haven't been able to convince teams to meet their contract demands.  If Fuentes can't convince a team to meet his demands, it's probably the smartest move for him to sign a one year deal with a team interested in giving him the closer role, even if it means less money.  This would give him an opportunity to rebuild his value for when he hits the market again after 2011.