Bautista Scores Big Contract

 

In case you missed it yesterday, the Blue Jays and power hitting 3B/OF Jose Bautista finalized a five year contract worth $65M.  According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Blue Jays will pay Bautista $8M in 2011 and $14M per season from 2012-2015.  The deal includes a club option in 2016 for $14M with a $1M buyout. 

With Bautista entering his third and final season of arbitration eligibility, he went for broke and submitted a salary request of $10.5M; the Blue Jays countered with $7.6M.  The extension makes those proposals meaningless, and allows both parties to avoid a potentially ugly arbitration hearing.  The deal buys out Bautista’s first four (or perhaps, five) seasons of free agency.  As a result, the earliest he can become a free agent is after his age-34 season.

Around the industry, the feelings about this deal have been mixed.  If you think he’s likely to repeat his big time power production, you love the deal.  If you think the 54 home runs he hit in 2010 were somewhat of a fluke, then you probably hate the deal.  There’s not a whole lot of wiggle room.  

Personally, I think the deal's a huge gamble.  I have serious doubts as to whether Bautista can sustain his elevated fly ball (54.1% in 2010 vs a 45.8% career) and HR/FB rates (21.7% in 2010 vs 13.8% career).  The whole season just screams "outlier" to me.  Given his previous career norms, I think it's much more reasonable to expect him to hit 25-30 home runs per season over the next few years.  Will that be enough to justify paying him $65M over the next few years?  I don't know.  That depends on how you project his position (3B or OF), ability to stay in the lineup, play defense, and ability to get on base.  I tend to think he'll justify the deal, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.  Why?  Assuming salary inflates at a rate of 5% per season, Bautista only needs to provide 11.8 fWAR over the next five seasons to justify his contract, which averages out to be just over 2.36 WAR per season.  In other words, he needs to prove that he's worthy of being a starting quality hitter/defender over the next five years.  I think he can do it.

But like I said, I wouldn't bet my life on it.

Arbitration Figures Requested

Arbitration requests are starting come in fast and furious now.  Let's take a look two of the highest profile requests that didn't get reconciled today.

• According to SI's Jon Heyman, AL MVP Josh Hamilton has requested a hefty $12M salary in his second season of arbitration-eligibility.  Last season, he made $3.25M, so this represents a pretty sizable raise for Hamilton.  The Rangers have countered with $8.7M.  This one could go down to the wire, but many insiders see the two sides meeting somewhere in the middle.  For Texas's case, I hope so.  If this one makes it to arbitration, I see Hamilton having a 75% chance of winning his case.  The guy hit .359/.411/.633 last season while displaying solid base running skills, and an ability to play all three outfield positions.  
• According to Gregor Chisolm of mlb.com, Jose Bautista is requesting an eye-popping $10.5M in his final year of arbitration-eligibility.   This one is going to be a very interesting case.  Bautista came out of nowhere last season, hitting 54 home runs.  (For the record, he'd hit 59 home runs in his previous four-plus seasons.)  While no one expects to see Bautista provide an encore performance in 2011, many can see him being a consistent 30-35 home run hitter for the next few years.  While I can't find the Blue Jays counteroffer at the moment, my guess is that it's around $6.5-8.0M.  Despite his huge season last year, I think there's a 50/50 chance the arbitrator sides with the Blue Jays on this one. Bautista only made $2.4M last year, so his $10.5M request represents nearly a 400% salary increase. 

I'll update later, as I hear more information about other arbitration-eligible players.

Hot Stove Season Ends, Arbitration Season Begins

Mmmmmm...Donut

It's that time of year again.  The Hot Stove Season is quickly cooling down, and the arbitration season is starting heat up.  According to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, 119 major league players filed for salary arbitration yesterday.  This list includes AL MVP Josh Hamilton, NL MVP Joey Votto, power hitting first baseman Prince Fielder, closer Jonathan Papelbon, and surprise power hitter Jose Bautista. 

The salary arbitration process is pretty archaic.  When players and teams exchange salary figures in mid-January, they are given the option to negotiate a contract.  In most cases, the negotiations are fairly simple, and contracts are finalized by the mid-February deadline.  In situations where both parties can not come to an agreement by the deadline, they're required to appear before an arbitration panel and plead their cases.  These situations are often ugly, partisan, and uncomfortable. 

The way the system is set up, nearly every player that files for arbitration ends up receiving a substantial raise. About half of the players are expected to agree to terms with their teams within the next week.  Only a handful of the cases will actually get heard by the arbitration panel.