Michael Young Video and Other News

If you haven't seen this video of a mother telling her three year old son that his favorite baseball player, Michael Young, will probably be traded from his favorite team, the Rangers, you should.  It's as adorable as it is heartbreaking.  At first he doesn't understand what his mother is trying to tell him.  Once he figures it out, the little boy becomes both deeply distressed and saddened by the news.  I think it's safe to say that baseball lost a young fan--no pun intended.  Hope you enjoy the video!

Also, it might be a little quiet content wise over the next couple of days.  For those of you who don't know, as a columnist for Fire Brand of the American League, I've been given an opportunity to write an article for ESPN.  Originally, my article was supposed to about Derek Jeter's prospects for returning to form, but that article proved to be too long for ESPN.  Instead, that article will run at Fire Brand on Friday morning.  In it's place, I'm putting together a commentary piece on Hank Steinbrenner's recent comments.  If you're interested, you'll be able to read it on Thursday afternoon at the ESPN Sweet Spot on the MLB page.

Youkilis on Changing Positions

Yesterday, Steve Silva of the Boston Globe caught up with Kevin Youkilis, and had a chance to ask him about moving from first base to third base.  Here's what Youk had to say.

"I enjoy third base because I've been there my whole career," he said. "It's a little bit more of a challenge. I like the challenge ... of trying to get better at a position that I need to get better at and it's going to be a spring training of challenging myself and challenging myself and throughout the year challenging myself to be a better third baseman than I am the day before."

Rather than being bitter about being forced to change positions, Youkilis is positive.  He's not complaining to the media about the Red Sox jerking him around.  Instead, he's looking forward to the challenge of playing third base again full time.  That's refreshing.  Michael Young would be wise to follow his lead.

Teams Line Up to Acquire Mediocre Player

Another day, another team interested in Michael Young. 

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Arizona Diamondbacks are the latest team to express interest in trading for the disgruntled former All-Star.  

“The Diamondbacks view Young as a possible upgrade over Melvin Mora at third base, but their talks with the Rangers have yet to escalate – and might not, according to major-league sources.

The D-Backs are in a similar position to the Marlins, another team that is pursuing Young but has only limited payroll flexibility.”

Yes, Young would be an upgrade over Mora, but not as big of an upgrade as many would like to believe.  Young’s reputation as both a leader and hitter far exceeds his actual capabilities.  After publicly demanding a trade; airing his grievances with GM Jon Daniels to the media; and having not one, but two temper-tantrums in two years after being asked to switch positions, it’s pretty clear to everyone (or at least it should be) that Young is not the team leader most of us assumed him to be.  I’m not saying he’s not within his rights to be disappointed.  In fact, he has every right to be upset.  I would be as well. That said, a true leader swallows his pride, and does what’s best for the team.  Young has had several opportunities to handle the situation with class and dignity, and he’s failed to do so every step of the way.

As a hitter, Young’s reputation is largely predicated upon two things:  (1) his ability to hit for power, and (2) the five consecutive 200-hit seasons he produced between 2003 and 2007.  While Young has retained his ability to hit for power, he hasn’t retained that same level of skill when it comes to getting on base.  Young, never skilled at drawing a walk, was the type of player who reached base the old fashion way (getting a hit), and achieved a paltry 6.7% walk rate during his ten year career.  As he aged, his ability to get on base, via the hit, regressed.  Not surprisingly, without a high batting average to prop up his OBP, Young began creating additional outs, thereby limiting his ability to contribute offensively.  As a result, Young has been a decidedly average hitter over the past four seasons, producing 9.3, 1.5, 27.6, and 8.0 weighted runs above average (wRAA).  His four year wRAA total of 46.4 runs puts him in the same company as Cody Ross, Marlon Byrd, and Adam LaRoche.  This shows that while Young is a solid hitter, he’s by no means elite.

While five consecutive 200-hit seasons might seem impressive, it’s really not when you consider the number of opportunities he was given (725 plate appearances per season, on average) to achieve that goal.*  Young’s streak of 200-hit seasons was largely opportunity based, and frequently came at the expense of plate discipline and creation of additional outs.  Furthermore, I don’t see how his five 200-hit seasons, the last of which occurred four years ago, have any bearing on his future performance.  Over the last three seasons, Young has had ample opportunity to prove he was still capable of accumulating 200 hits in a season.  Despite receiving similar number of plate appearances, he’s failed to come within reasonable striking distance of meeting that threshold.  This is a clear sign that Young’s hitting abilities are in a state of decline.  Considering his age, 34, and recent performance history, it’s pretty unlikely that Young will achieve another 200-hit season before his career ends.  While it’s factually correct that Young achieved five consecutive 200-hit seasons that fact is largely irrelevant when discussing his expected future performance.

* I don’t want to devalue his achievement, but there’s an important distinction to be made here.  The ability to hit is skill based.  The ability to accumulate hits is opportunity based.  In my opinion, Young’s achievement was largely based on opportunity.  His position in the batting order, along with his inability to draw walks (6.7 BB% for his career), gave him considerable opportunity to compile hits.  Hitters either more patient or hitting lower in the batting order would not have the same number of opportunities to compile hits as easily as Young; therefore, they’d like accumulate fewer hits as a result.  The difference in hit totals doesn’t make them lesser hitters than Young.  In fact, it’s possible they’re better than Young due to their ability to not only draw walks, but also create fewer outs.  Still, most people will consider the player with the higher hit total (Young) to be a better hitter.  Why?  Most fans and sports writers don’t consider the context of the situation when making that determination.

As for a potential trade, the Diamondbacks are in the same situation as the Dodgers and Marlins.  With little room for payroll flexibility, Arizona would likely need the Rangers to absorb a sizeable portion of the $48M remaining on Young’s contract.  How much would they want the Rangers to absorb?  I don’t want to speculate, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were asked to eat anywhere from 50-75%.  Additionally, the Diamondbacks are not on Young’s no trade exception list, so the two sides would need Young’s buy-in prior to completing a trade. 

If you ask me, it sounds like the Diamondbacks are doing their due diligence by kicking the tires, which is something Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is famous for doing.  In all likelihood, trade discussions will not progress any further. 

Marlins Check in on Young

Seems like everyone's kicking the tires on Michael Young these days.  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Marlins are the latest team to express interest in the former All-Star. 

Not surprisingly, a source with knowledge of the discussions called the trade prospects between the two clubs "a real reach."  In order to make a deal work, the Rangers would have to eat a substantial portion of the $48M remaining on Young's contract.  Now, this is pure speculation, but considering the Marlins status as a low revenue club, I'd have to imagine they'd want the Rangers to eat as much as 75% (similar to what the Dodgers reportedly requested) of the contract.  As I've mentioned before, it doesn't make sense for the Rangers to bite a such a lopsided deal because it would hamper their ability to improve their roster going forward.

The Marlins do need a third baseman.  Currently, Matt Dominguez, who hasn't started a game above AA, is listed as their starting third baseman.  Ideally, Young would be an upgrade, but he figures to be too expensive to be considered a reasonable option. 

Additionally, the Marlins are not included on Young's no trade exception list, so he'd have to approve any trade before it gets finalized.   For reference, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, the eight teams on Young's no trade exception list are the Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Twins, Yankees, Cardinals and Astros.

The Saga Continues...

The Michael Young trade market is alive with rumors.  The trade discussions with the Rockies seem to be locked in neutral.  Then, the Phillies threw their hat in the ring because God forbid Ruben Amaro doesn't at least attempt to trade for an overrated and overpaid player.  Semi-surprisingly, those talks went nowhere.  The Angels, who previously expressed interest, officially pulled out of the running when GM Tony Reaggins ruled out such a move during an interview with the Los Angeles Times on Thursday. 

Now, Ken Rosenthal reports that multiple sources have informed him the Rangers are in serious trade talks with the Dodgers.  A deal does not appear to be imminent.  One source was pretty negative about the prospects of a deal getting done because of Young's contract situation.  In order to make a deal work, the Dodgers reportedly want the Rangers to absorb as much as 75% (or $36M) of the remaining $48M on Young's contract.  Absorbing that much money would be an incredibly difficult pill for the Rangers to swallow, and one that would hamper their ability to improve the roster going forward.  Rangers GM Jon Daniels is a pretty smart guy, so he's probably already figured out that there are potentially better trade options available down the road provided he remains patient.  It's not worthwhile for the Rangers to move him just for the sake of getting him off of the roster.  

Unfortunately for the Rangers, that means it's unlikely they'll move him before Spring Training starts in a few days.  It's not an ideal situation, but one in which they'll have to live.  Hopefully, Young exhibits the kind of respect he claims to have for Rangers president Nolan Ryan and manager Ron Washington, and shows up at camp with the intent of not drawing attention to himself.  Young exhibiting the leadership qualities he supposedly possesses would go along way towards starting the healing process.

As the Michael Young World Turns

When Vlad Guerrero finally signed with Orioles, the Hot Stove League turned its lonely eyes to Rangers DH Michael Young.  Luckily, for those of us whom are Hot Stove junkies, the Young saga has been one full of unpredictable twists and turns.  It has not disappointed. 

Last night, Troy Renck of the Denver Post shared another interesting twist.  According to a source close to the Rockies, the team has pulled out of trade discussions with the Rangers, and plans to enter Spring Training with Ian Stewart as their starting third baseman.  Not surprisingly, the primary factors in the talks breaking down were the Rangers trade demands and the $48M remaining on Young’s contract.  As Renck reports, the Rangers asking price increased once Guerrero signed with the Orioles.  Left without a replacement, the Rangers became apprehensive with the idea of giving Young away while eating a significant portion of his remaining contract.

As I reported the other day, Young’s contract is not one that will be easy to get around.  In order to get teams to even considering sitting down at the negotiating table, the Rangers will likely have to agree to eat anywhere from $15-25M upfront.  That’s just to get the ball rolling.  Even with the Rangers eating a significant portion of the $48M remaining on Young’s contract, they’ll likely have to made additional concessions regarding the quality of players they receive back in return for the former All-Star.  Understandably, this is going to be a very tough pill for the Rangers to swallow, but they made their bed with this situation a long time ago.  They signed him to the contract, and now they have to live with the consequences of their decision.

The one thing that confuses me about Renck’s report is that the Rangers already have a viable replacement for Young, should he be traded:  Mike Napoli.  With C Yorvit Torrealba and 1B Mitch Moreland on the roster, Napoli would seem to fit naturally into the DH spot vacated by Young.  With Napoli’s strong offensive skill set, it’s not unreasonable to think he could eclipse Young’s offensive output in 2011.  I’ll admit that moving Napoli from a C/1B utility situation to a full time DH does make the Rangers weaker at catcher and first base.  Still, I don’t believe it makes them weak enough to justify not moving Young.  This is no time for the Rangers to be rigid.  As a team trading a surplus player with a bad contract, they have little leverage in this situation.  While I’m assuming the Rangers planned for him to split time between catcher and first base, this situation calls for their plans to remain fluid. 

So how far has the situation between Young and the Rangers deteriorated?  Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports provides some particularly juicy information in his latest article.

“I asked for a trade because I’ve been misled and manipulated and I’m sick of it,” Young told FOXSports.com. “. . . I got pushed into a corner one too many times. I couldn’t take it any more.”

Young would not go into specifics, but hinted at a rift with Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, saying, “I know the truth. And so does JD.” Daniels declined comment, but during a conference call with reporters earlier Monday, he referred certain questions to team president Nolan Ryan because Ryan had spoken with Young more recently.

Yikes!  This is already a bad situation, and it’s poised to get even worse.  As it stands, Young is unhappy, expensive, and at risk of losing playing time.  It might be better for the Rangers to swallow their tongue, and take the best deal possible--even if that means they get little in return.  As I said above, the Rangers don’t have a lot of leverage trading a surplus player with a bad contract.

The Michael Young Saga Continues

There's been quite a whirlwind of news surrounding Michael Young these last few days.  First, Buster Olney mentioned in his report that "something had changed" in the relationship between the Rangers and Young, and that he wished to be traded.   Then, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Rangers had recently reopened the long dormant trade discussions with the Rockies.  Sounds good, right?  Wrong.  Troy Renck of the Denver Post (and Twitter extraordinaire) reported that he's spoken with multiple sources with direct knowledge of Rockies on-field operations, and was informed that trade talks had not been reopened. 

This brings us up to today.  Now, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports reports Texas is going to "attempt" to trade Young because the infielder-turned-DH has become "disillusioned with his diminished role with his team." 

As everyone knows, the Rangers signed free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre to a huge five year $80M conract in early January to play third base.  Young, as the incumbent third baseman, needed to either be traded or moved to another position.  Unable to find any takers, the Rangers announced they were making Young their permanent full-time DH.  Considering the temper tantrum he had when the Rangers moved him from short to third a couple of years ago, you can imagine that he was less than thrilled when he was informed of the decision. 

To make matters worse for Young, the Rangers recently traded for former Angel Mike Napoli.  Napoli is primarily a catcher and first baseman, but the Rangers already have full-time players at those positions in Mitch Moreland and Yorvit Torrealba.  While Napoli will likely still see a lot of playing time at both positions, he's expected to get the remainder of his plate appearances at the DH spot Young currently encumbers.  It doesn't take Albert Einstein (or even Kevin Federline) to realize that more PAs at DH for Napoli means fewer PAs for Young.  Young, being the reasonably intelligent guy he is, saw the writing on the wall, and has asked for a trade.  Judging by the Rangers actions in recent months, I'm pretty sure they want him out of Texas too.

As I've mentioned a few times before, the biggest issue with moving Michael Young is the three years and $48M he's owed through 2013.  Young, 34, is roughly a 2.5 win player right now, and will continue to decline over the next few seasons.  Using the typical regression pattern of 0.5 WAR per season, Young can only be expected to provide 6.0 WAR over the next three seasons--maybe 7.0 if a little luck rolls his way.  At $5M per win, it's very unlikely Young will be able to produce enough value to justify the cost of his salary.  As a result, the Rangers will probably have to agree to eat anywhere between $15-25M of his remaining contract just to get any team to listen.   Recent reports had the Rockies expecting the Rangers to pick up around $20M of Young's contract.

Interesting thing to note:  Brown hears that the Angels are interested in acquiring Young.  I am Jack's total lack of surprise.  After taking on Vernon Wells and $81M of the $86M remaining on his contract, I half expected the Angels to be interested in Young.  He's both overpaid and overrated--just the type of player the Angels love.  While I'd be surprised to see them be willing to take on Young's entire $48M contract, nothing would surprise me at this point. 

Rangers Making a Move for Beltre...Out on Lee?

Buster Olney reports (via Karl Ravech) that the Rangers are “aggressively moving on (Adrian) Beltre.”  This has led many to believe that the Yankees have won the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, and the Rangers have moved onto plan B.  While this is certainly a logical train of thought, I’m entirely not sold. 

The Rangers still have Michael Young entrenched as their starting third baseman.  While there have been reports that the Rangers and Rockies have been involved in trade talks regarding Young, those talks have been inactive for the past four or five days.  Sure, it’s possible those talks may re-open at some point down the road, but there’s no guarantee of that happening. 

If the Rangers can’t find any takers for Young, they may look to carry both Beltre and Young on the roster at the same time.  Beltre is much better defensively than Young, so Young would likely be the one to change positions.  Yeah, I’m sure that will go over really well considering the temper tantrum he pulled after being asked to move off of shortstop to make room for Elvis Andrus. 

So where would Young play?  First base?  Left/Right field?  Designated Hitter?  Any of those could theoretically work considering those positions are less physically demanding than the hot corner.  That said, Young doesn’t have the kind of bat that plays particularly well at any of those positions.  Therefore, his overall value could take a hit, as his positive defensive contributions would be negated by his weak bat (for the position). 

The Rangers have a pretty savvy front office.  I don’t think they’d put themselves in a position to lower Young’s trade value, especially since they’re interested in moving him.  If they’re moving on Beltre, they’re either (a) close to trading Young, or (b) trying to drive up the price on the Angels.  If they can pull off trading Young, signing Beltre (in addition to Lee) would be a huge coup for the Rangers.  It would give the Rangers a huge advantage over the Angels for the next 3-4 seasons.

Lastly, I’m not convinced that Lee has decided to jump ship for New York.  The Yankees put a slam dunk offer on the table (7 years $161M) that they knew the Rangers wouldn’t be able (or willing) to match.  The longer he drags these negotiations along, the more likely it appears the Rangers will be able to retain the left-handed starting pitcher.