AL MVP Award: A Chance at Redemption

Tomorrow afternoon, Josh Hamilton will be awarded the American League MVP award.  I’m not even going to preface that statement with the terms “likely” or “probably”.  He is going to win the award.  It’s a guarantee.  Hamilton put together a fantastic season that was unrivaled by his American League peers.  If that wasn’t enough, Hamilton’s of story of redemption is enough to break nearly any tie.  The only question that remains in my mind is whether or not he wins the award unanimously.  I think he probably does, but I’m not going to make any guarantees on that.  The BBWAA if filled with voters that seem to have no rhyme or reason for voting in the manner in which they do.  (See Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette who left Jason Heyward off of his ballot in favor of two undeserving Pirates rookies.)

Statistically, Hamilton had few peers.  He finished first in the AL in batting average (.359), SLG (.633), wOBA (.447), OPS (1.044), wRAA (57.6), and WAR (8.0); second in OBP (.411); fifth in home runs (32); eleventh in runs scored (95); and twelfth in RBI (100) and doubles (40).  To top it off, he played above average defense in both center and left (7.9 UZR, +7 DRS) and was a positive asset on the bases (worth +3.0 runs on the EQBRR scale).  Hamilton was at his most impressive from June 1^st through September 4^th (when he got injured) hitting .410/.461/.717 with 27 doubles, 22 home runs, and 70 RBI.  During his torrid stretch, the Rangers went 48-34 (.585 winning percentage), thereby increasing the Rangers division lead by eight games over the Oakland Athletics.  Hamilton was the engine that drove the Rangers, and he drove it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. 

While Hamilton’s on-field performance was the most important factor in winning the MVP award, it won’t likely be the most talked about reason.  As pretty much everyone knows, Hamilton has suffered through a great deal of adversity over the years.  Tampa Bay had high hopes for Hamilton after drafting him with the overall number one pick in 1999.  Through his first two professional seasons, he developed exactly as they’d hoped showing an ability to hit for power and average, while playing above average outfield defense.  In 2001, Hamilton was involved in a serious car accident, which caused him to miss most of the season.  Around the same time, he started abusing drugs and alcohol.  While Hamilton played generally played well 2002, he suffered from lingering issues that caused him to miss significant action.  The next four seasons were a constant struggle.  His behavior was erratic, and he shuffled in and out of rehab.  In 2006, Hamilton successfully completed rehab, and returned to baseball late in the season. 

While Hamilton’s return to baseball was initially successful, many in baseball openly questioned whether he would ever be able to reach the potential he once showed.  Tampa Bay, tired of waiting for him to develop, left him off of the 40 man roster, and exposed him to the Rule V draft.  The Chicago Cubs selected him with the third pick in the draft, and promptly traded him to the Cincinnati Reds for cash.  Being forced to keep Hamilton in the majors for the entire season (or else risk being forced to send Hamilton back to Tampa) the Reds gave him a job as their utility outfielder.  Hamilton started the season very strong, and within a couple of weeks had seized the starting CF job.  Exhibiting many of the skills he flashed during his early seasons in the minors, Hamilton had completed his improbable comeback.  His story doesn’t end there.  Prior to the 2008 season, Hamilton was traded to the Texas Rangers for starting pitcher Edinson Volquez.  After an insanely hot start to the season, Hamilton was selected to his first All-Star team, and was asked to participate in the Home Run Derby.  At the Home Run Derby, he put on an unbelievable show by breaking records for home runs hit.  While he didn’t end up winning the Derby, he certainly put a cap on his unbelievable comeback. 

I’m not one to enjoy human interest pieces.  In fact, when ESPN plays those pieces on Sportscenter or E60, I usually change the channel as fast as I can.  Hamilton’s a little different.  He’s a guy that hit rock bottom, and somehow found the will to scratch and claw his way back.  I have a lot of respect for someone that can do that.  This MVP award is not only a validation of his tremendous season, but his new lease on life.  He deserves it.  He’s been through hell and back.  

NL MVP Award

Tomorrow, the National League MVP Award will be announced.  When it is, one of two first basemen will likely be selected as the 2010 recipient:  Albert Pujols or Joey Votto.   Both players had incredibly similar years.   Both are more than deserving.  If I had an official vote, I know that I'd have a very difficult time deciding over who would be my choice with the award.  The voters of season-end awards hold a great responsibility, as these awards are used as supporting "proof" in Hall of Fame cases.  Perception of a particular player's performance in a given season (or seasons) can have a long lasting effect on our view of his career.  Sometimes it's positive, but others it's negative.   

Pujols is a modern day Joe DiMaggio.  He’s a three time MVP (and three second place finishes) who hits for average and power, gets on base, runs the bases well, and plays excellent defense at this position.  A model of consistency, Pujols has hit at least .300/.400/.500 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI ten consecutive seasons.  Pujols’s plate discipline is unheard of in our current era.  Where high strikeout totals , are the norm, Pujols controls the strike zone better than any hitter of the past 25 years not named Barry Bonds.  In every season since 2002, he’s accumulated more walks than strike outs.   While I don’t want to call his production routine, for him it almost was routine.  The man is a machine.   To put it simply, if Pujols were to retire today, he’d be a lock for the Hall of Fame.

In 2010, Pujols put together yet another solid season.  He put up a .420 wOBA (his tenth consecutive season above .400) and produced a 55.4 wRAA (second in the NL) while exhibiting his patented plate discipline and excellent defense at first base.   His production was so valuable, he put up 7.2 WAR, which was good for second in the NL and third in baseball.  Despite his tremendous 2010 achievements, he falls just short of MVP in my eyes.

My vote for the NL MVP Award (if I had one) would go to Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto.  Votto had an outstanding season, outpacing Pujols in several key categories:  wOBA (.439 to .420), wRAA (61.3 to 55.4), OBP (.424 to .414), SLG (.600 to .596), wRC+ 177 to 169, UZR (1.6 to 1.5), and WAR (7.3 to 7.2).  Yes, I know.  Votto barely beat out Pujols in these categories, but the margin of victory isn't important.  He was slightly better, and that's what matters.

Even if we came to a consensus and called it a virtual statistical tie, I would still give my vote to Votto.  Why?  While Votto had a talented cast supporting him, it wasn't anywhere near the cast Pujols had.  Pujols was armed with a companion MVP quality candidate (Holliday), two top tier starting pitchers (Carpenter and Wainwright), and a Rookie of the Year candidate (Garcia).  The Cardinals should've coasted into the postseason--easily.  Instead, they wilted down the stretch.  While it's unfair to punish Pujols who carried the Cardinals in September, Votto's performance down the stretch is what set him apart.  He was just a little bit more valuable.  He had to be.  The Reds starting pitching rotation wasn't exactly playoff caliber.   Made up #3 and #4 quality starters of the Scott Baker/Ted Lilly variety, the Reds pitching staff finished eighth in ERA, eleventh in strikeouts, and twelfth in home runs allowed.  (Those pitchers are nice to have, but not when they are your front of the rotation starters.)  That's not exactly a recipe for success.  To win, the Reds needed to outscore their opponents, meaning Votto had to be on top of his game at the most crucial point in the season.  On top of his game, he was.  He hit .308/.429/.571 with five home runs, nine doubles, and 16 RBI.  By season's end, Votto led his team to the postseason for the first time since 1995, finishing five games ahead of Pujols's Cardinals.  

So there you have it.  I've chosen Joey Votto for the 2010 NL MVP by the narrowest of margins.  Like I said before, both players are more than deserving of the honor.  If the BBWAA announced tomorrow that Pujols had won his fourth MVP, I would neither be surprised nor disappointed.  That said, it'd be shame.  Votto put together what's likely to be his career season, and he deserves to be rewarded for it.