Vlad Guerrero and the Mystery Team Machine

As Buster Olney reports today, the Vlad Guerrero talks are about to heat up.

"The Vladimir Guerrero talks will gather some momentum in the next 48 hours, one way or another. The Orioles have an offer on the table; last week, Guerrero's side informed them that they had an offer worth $8 million in play. It's not clear which team would have made the $8 million offer."

Really?  Guerrero's still totting around that story?  This is the second mentioning of Vlad's "mystery team" in a week.  The first time it was mentioned was on 1/28 also by Buster Olney.

I think the thing that amazes me about this whole situation is that Vlad supposedly received this amazing one year $8M offer (which coincidentally just happens to be the exact offer he's been seeking), and yet he hasn't jumped at it.  Doesn't this seem really strange?  It does to me.  I can see him shopping it around for a day or two, but an entire week?  Isn't he afraid this mystery team might get sick of waiting for him to sign, and pull their offer?  It's not like there are multiple teams beating down his door at this point.  We're talking about the Orioles, and that's about it.  Based on their thirteen year record of futility, it's not like he's hoping to sign with the Orioles because he wants to sign with a contending club. 

So what's he waiting for?  Well, honestly, the mystery team sounds pretty fake--not just a little fake, but really fake.  If I were the Orioles, I'd call his bluff.  I'd keep shooting him low ball offers, and with each offer, I'd reduce it slightly.  Eventually, he'll have to make a decision:  sit out the season or swallow his pride and accept the offer.  Chances are, he'll come crawling back and accept the low ball offer.  When he does, the Orioles will have a solid hitter for bargain basement price.

A Mystery Team in January? How Novel!

According to Buster Olney, Vladmir Guerrero has received a one year $8M contract from an unnamed mystery team, but has decided to continue shopping around for the time being.

Really?  So you're telling me that some team met Vlad's demands for a one year $8M deal, and he's still shopping?  I'm not saying Buster is wrong (he's just reporting the information he's being fed), but something doesn't seem right.   As soon as I read the report, two things came to mind.  One, don't Jon Heyman and Scott Boras have the market cornered on mystery teams?  Two, why is Vlad still reportedly talking to the Orioles?

According to recent reports, Vlad was unimpressed by the Orioles "low ball" offer of one year $2M.  If I had an ideal offer from one team, and I was made an insulting offer from another, I would stop negotiating immediately.  That's just me though.  Furthermore, the Orioles have stated they only have $4.5M (maximum) to spend, and they still would like to add another arm to their bullpen.  That pretty much precludes them from getting anywhere close to matching the unnamed mystery team's offer. 

So what's Vlad's upside to continue negotiating when he has a perfectly good $8M offer from another team?  There isn't one.  The problem is that like all great mystery teams, they don't exist.  Vlad hasn't received an $8M offer.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles were the only team actively negotiating with Team Vlad.  They're using this "offer" to try and gain some leverage on the Orioles.  Unfortunately for Vlad and his agent, this maneuver is so transparent that no one in their right mind (not even Jon Heyman, the master behind the mystery team) believes him.

In a semi-related note, if the Orioles do end up being successful in signing Guerrero, word is that Luke Scott will move to LF, and Felix Pie will be the odd man out.