The Michael Young Saga Continues

There's been quite a whirlwind of news surrounding Michael Young these last few days.  First, Buster Olney mentioned in his report that "something had changed" in the relationship between the Rangers and Young, and that he wished to be traded.   Then, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Rangers had recently reopened the long dormant trade discussions with the Rockies.  Sounds good, right?  Wrong.  Troy Renck of the Denver Post (and Twitter extraordinaire) reported that he's spoken with multiple sources with direct knowledge of Rockies on-field operations, and was informed that trade talks had not been reopened. 

This brings us up to today.  Now, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports reports Texas is going to "attempt" to trade Young because the infielder-turned-DH has become "disillusioned with his diminished role with his team." 

As everyone knows, the Rangers signed free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre to a huge five year $80M conract in early January to play third base.  Young, as the incumbent third baseman, needed to either be traded or moved to another position.  Unable to find any takers, the Rangers announced they were making Young their permanent full-time DH.  Considering the temper tantrum he had when the Rangers moved him from short to third a couple of years ago, you can imagine that he was less than thrilled when he was informed of the decision. 

To make matters worse for Young, the Rangers recently traded for former Angel Mike Napoli.  Napoli is primarily a catcher and first baseman, but the Rangers already have full-time players at those positions in Mitch Moreland and Yorvit Torrealba.  While Napoli will likely still see a lot of playing time at both positions, he's expected to get the remainder of his plate appearances at the DH spot Young currently encumbers.  It doesn't take Albert Einstein (or even Kevin Federline) to realize that more PAs at DH for Napoli means fewer PAs for Young.  Young, being the reasonably intelligent guy he is, saw the writing on the wall, and has asked for a trade.  Judging by the Rangers actions in recent months, I'm pretty sure they want him out of Texas too.

As I've mentioned a few times before, the biggest issue with moving Michael Young is the three years and $48M he's owed through 2013.  Young, 34, is roughly a 2.5 win player right now, and will continue to decline over the next few seasons.  Using the typical regression pattern of 0.5 WAR per season, Young can only be expected to provide 6.0 WAR over the next three seasons--maybe 7.0 if a little luck rolls his way.  At $5M per win, it's very unlikely Young will be able to produce enough value to justify the cost of his salary.  As a result, the Rangers will probably have to agree to eat anywhere between $15-25M of his remaining contract just to get any team to listen.   Recent reports had the Rockies expecting the Rangers to pick up around $20M of Young's contract.

Interesting thing to note:  Brown hears that the Angels are interested in acquiring Young.  I am Jack's total lack of surprise.  After taking on Vernon Wells and $81M of the $86M remaining on his contract, I half expected the Angels to be interested in Young.  He's both overpaid and overrated--just the type of player the Angels love.  While I'd be surprised to see them be willing to take on Young's entire $48M contract, nothing would surprise me at this point. 

Details Behind the CarGo Deal

For those of you who follow Troy Renck of the Denver Post on Twitter, you know that he's the "go to" guy regarding all things Carlos Gonzalez.  Today, he reported the details behind Gonzalez's massive seven year $80M contract extension with the Rockies. 

"I have previously posted the signing bonus of $3 million, his $1 million salary for the upcoming season and an assignment bonus ($1 million) when traded. Here are the remaining numbers as reported by Diario Panorama’s Augusto Cardenas from Gonzalez’s hometown of Maracaibo, Venezuela.

The breakdown: $1 million in 2011, $5 million in ’12; $7.5 million in ’13, $10.5 million in ’14, $16 million in ’15; $17 million in ’16 and $20 million in ’17."

As I've discussed in previous articles, Gonzalez's seven year contract will cover his final pre-arbitration year, all three arbitration seasons, and the first three seasons of free agency.  Unless there's an opt out clause we don't know about, Gonzalez will not become a free agent until just before his age-32 season in 2018.  Still, it's not like he won't be well compensated for being bought out of his first three seasons of free agency.  Between 2015 and 2017, Gonzalez will make a very healthy $53M.  The sick part is that it's possible he ends up being slightly underpaid by the time 2015 rolls around.  That said, it's way too early to speculate on things like contract inflation and the average cost of a win five to seven years down the road--especially in this economic climate.

Still, this is a pretty good deal for both sides.  CarGo gets security he desires without having to forego a huge pay day.  The Rockies get the comfort of knowing they have two of their core players locked up through 2017.   All-in-all, it's a pretty good day in the Mile High City.

Extension Will Have to Wait for Jimenez

With Troy Tulowitski and Carlos Gonzalez locked up for the foreseeable future, it only seems logical that the Rockies would start working on an extension for ace pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez.  According to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, the bank has been temporarily closed.  Contract talks will have to wait until after the 2011 season.

Jimenez, 26, has two seasons remaining on his current four year $10M contract; plus two options seasons that, if picked up, will pay him an additional $13.75M.   Jimenez has a power repertoire, improved control, and a proven ability to pitch well in pitcher unfriendly Coors Field.  That alone should net him a 4-5 year contract with an average annual salary (AAS) of $14-16M.  Add in his tremendous 2010 Cy Young worthy season (19-8, 6.3 fWAR, 2.88 ERA, and 214/92 K/BB ratio), that could push his AAS potential up to $16-18M, particularly if he repeats his 5-6 fWAR performance in 2011.

The Rockies are probably right to wait a year before extending Jimenez again.  They hold all of the cards at this point.  If they were so inclined, the Rockies could hold onto him for the next three seasons at a very reasonable price.  Then, they could let him leave via free agency after his age-29 season just before he enters his decline phase.  Then again, with the way the Rockies have been throwing money around lately, I wouldn't be surprised to see him sign a six year $90M contract prior to Opening Day.

Gonzalez Traveling to Denver to Complete Extension

Do you remember that unconfirmed report regarding Carlos Gonzalez's 7 year $80M contract I was telling you about?  Well, we just got confirmation.  Well, sort of. 

According to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, a deal is in place, and Gonzalez is traveling to Denver for a physical.  (Note:  For those curious about who CargoMedia5 is, Renck confirmed that it's his official publicist out of Venezuela.)  Gonzalez is not eligible for arbitration until after the 2012 season, so as I mentioned before, this deal would cover his last "reserve clause" season, all three of his arbitration seasons, and his first three years of free agency.  Once signed, the Rockies would have both Tulowitski and Gonzalez, their two best position players, locked up through 2017.

In 2010, Gonzalez, 25, put together an MVP quality season hitting .336/.376/.598 triple slash (.406 wOBA) while mashing 34 home runs, driving in 117 runs, and providing 6.0 wins above the replacement level. 

Unconfirmed Report: Gonzalez, Rockies Agree to Extension

It's still unconfirmed, but there are reports that the Rockies have agreed in principle on a seven year contract extension worth $78-80M with 25 year old outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. 

Rumors began flying out of Venezuela late yesterday when sources close to Gonzalez indicated that he was working on visa arrangements that would allow him to travel to Denver for an "emergency meeting."  While multiple Venezuelan reporters have dismissed the report as false, the rumor remains.  Tom Harding of mlb.com was stonewalled for a confirmation by the Rockies front office.  Still, he was able to confirm that an offer has been on the table for several weeks.

I have to admit that I'm a bit skeptical--primarily due to the fact Gonzalez's agent is Scott Boras.  Very rarely does Boras agree to a contract that would buy out his client's arbitration seasons, plus a couple of free agent years.  I can't help but think that it might be smarter for Gonzalez to go year-to-year, and take his chances via the arbitration process.  In doing so, he would become a free agent two season earlier (at age 30 versus age 32), which should allow him to net a much bigger pay day.

On the Rockies end, I'm a bit confused.  I've already covered this in detail in another post, so I'll try to keep this brief.  First of all, Gonzalez won't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season.  It seems foolish to give up one of their three "reserve clause" seasons where they can set his salary at or near the league minimum without player recourse.  Secondly, Gonzalez is far from a sure thing at this point.  To date, his 6.3% career walk rate is far below the league average; his 2010 BABIP (.384) is unsustainable; and the quality of his defense is debatable.  It would be in the Rockies best interest to hold off for another season, while take a little bit of extra time to evaluate the talent they have in front of them.  If he shows improvement in his plate discipline and defense, they should strike quickly to sign him to an extension.  If he doesn't, it's probably best to let him go year-to-year, and allow him to leave via free agency after 2014.

Rockies Propose Another $100M Contract

The baseball world has gone mad!  For two years, teams were acting like paupers.  Now, they're flush with cash.  Where is all of this money coming from? 

So far this winter, four players (soon to be five) have received contracts exceeding $100M in total value--Troy Tulowitski, Adrian Gonzalez, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and soon to be Cliff Lee.  Now, the Rockies want to add another to the mix--Carlos Gonzalez.  Carlos Gonzalez?  Is this the same player that has only two years of service time?  Is this the same player that's not eligible for salary arbitration until 2012?  Apparently so.

The Rockies are willing to give Carlos Gonzalez an unprecedented contract for a player with barely two big-league seasons on his resume.

They would be open to a six- to seven-year deal, the length of which would guarantee Gonzalez in the neighborhood of $100 million, according to owner Dick Monfort.

"I am hopeful, yes, that we can get something done," Monfort told The Denver Post in an exclusive interview Wednesday.

I'm speechless.  First of all, why are the Rockies trying to sign Gonzalez to an extension right now?  Don't the know they can sign him for the league minimum for 2011, and he has no recourse?  Secondly, the Rockies would be buying out all three of his arbitration years.  During these three seasons, he'd probably make $20-30M at most.   Just for fun, let's take the median at $25M.*  Assuming a 7 year $100M extension, this means the Rockies would theoretically be comfortable paying him $75M for years five, six, and seven of the deal.  Sounds pretty crazy.  Right?  Well, this is precisely what the Rockies are proposing.  Some might call this reckless, but I don't want to go that far.  I don't want to be lumped in with the Mike Lupicas of the world.  Let's just call the contract proposal anti-Evan Longorian.

* Let's say the Rockies give him a contract of $500K for 2011.  Through the arbitration process he gets $4.5M in 2012, $8M in 2013, and $12M in 2014.  In our theoretical scenario, he'd earn $25M over the course of his next four pre-free agent seasons. 

As for Gonzalez's performance, I think he has a ton of potential.  That said, he has a long way to go before he's a complete player.  For one, he's averse to taking a walk.  His career walk rate is 6.3%, which is below the league average of 8-9%.  While his below average walk rate may not have mattered much last year (due to his .336 batting average propping up his .376 OBP), it will matter at some point in the future.  For example, his 2010 batting average was propped up by an unsustainable .384 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  Next year, when his BABIP regresses back to his expected rate (around .330), he'll see a corresponding regression in his batting average and OBP.  As a result, Gonzalez will be less effective at the plate until he learns how to take more pitches, draw more walks, and avoid outs.

Another area where Gonzalez needs to improve is his defense.  Yes, he won a Gold Glove, and made some spectacular looking catches in the field.  Based on the advanced metrics though, those spectacular catches were the exception to the rule.  Not the rule.  Gonzalez was by no means a poor defender in 2010, just a slightly below average defender.  UZR had him valued at -3.8 runs; Total Zone had him at -2; and Defensive Runs Saved had him at -2.  Part of this was possibly due to the manner in which the Rockies shuffled him from position to position within the outfield.*  I'd like to see how he performs playing a full season or two at a corner outfield position before making a decision on his defensive abilities. 

*He started 51 games in left, 55 games in center, and 34 games in right. 

The Rockies need to take a step back, and think this out carefully.  I understand their thought process.  They're afraid if they don't act quickly, the Werth and Crawford contracts will help price them out of the Gonzalez market much like they were priced out of the Matt Holliday market a couple of years ago.  I understand, but it doesn't make any sense to panic.  Yes, Scott Boras is Gonzalez's agent.  Yes, he's going to make them pay through the nose, especially if he ends up being a consistent 5-6 WAR player over the next few years.  That said, Gonzalez under their control for the next four seasons at a rather reasonable salary (at least in relation to his projected output).  This inherently lowers the bargaining power of Gonzalez/Boras.  Why tip your hand by saying you're willing to overpay?  Plus, contracts that buy up arbitration years are supposed to be designed to be team friendly.   The contract the Rockies are proposing is anything but team friendly.  The money saved on Gonzalez now could be used to fill other holes on the diamond--like signing Adrian Beltre to play third base.)   

Rockie Mountain High

Prior to today, Troy Tulowitski was a rich man.  Now, he’s even richer.  Rather than have Tulowitski play out the remaining three years of his six year $31M contract, the Rockies have decided to not only pick up his $15M option for 2014, but also tack on an additional six year $120M contract that will run from 2015 to 2020.  All told, Tulowitski will make $157.75M over the next 10 years.  

Like Craig Calcaterra of NBC’s Hardball Talk, I’m left wondering why the Rockies made such a big push to sign a player that was already locked up for the foreseeable future.  It’s most confusing.  Don’t get me wrong.  Tulowitski is a fantastic player who does a lot of things incredibly well.  For starters, he’s only 26 years old, and he’s already a consistent 5-6 WAR player.  Second, he’s an excellent defender at one of the most defensively challenging positions (SS) on the field.  He has soft hands, great range, and a strong arm.  Third, he hits for average, has excellent power for this position, gets on base at an above average clip, exhibits good plate discipline, and is an above average base runner.  If you were going to build a contender around one player, he’s on the short list of five or ten guys you’d consider. 

Still, I can’t help but wonder if this was a somewhat of a miscalculation on the part of the Rockies.  Tulowitski may be an excellent player now, but what happens if he runs into a string of nagging injuries that not only keeps him out of action for extended periods, but also limits his production.*  This isn’t completely out of the realm of possibilities as he spent significant portions of both the 2008 and 2010 seasons on the disabled list with a torn quadricep and fractured wrist.  I’m not saying he’s going to have an injury riddled career, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention it as a possibility.  That said, assuming Tulowitski remains healthy, I project him to be a 4.5-6.0 WAR player between 2011 and 2016, and a 2.5-5.0 WAR player from 2017 and 2020.

* Nomar Garciaparra, a player with a comparable skill set, had his first major injury in his age-27 (2001).  By the time Garciaparra reached his age-30 season, he was overcome by a barrage of injuries that completely derailed a career that seemed Hall of Fame bound.  Nomar's career as an effective major league starter ended at age-32.  He was out of the game by the time he was 35 years old.  

  

To an extent, I understand the Rockies' desire to lock up their franchise player.  After their last franchise player (Matt Holliday) priced himself out of the Rockies comfort zone, they were forced to trade him to Oakland one year prior to him becoming eligible for free agency.  As such, they wanted to make sure they had Tulowitski locked up through his prime.  The problem is that they didn't need to sign Tulowitski to another extension.  They already had him locked up for the next four seasons.  While the Rockies probably saved themselves $20-40M by signing him now, they’ve added considerable risk due to the length of the commitment they’ve made.  The smart move for the Rockies (and Tulowitski) would have been to hold off signing a contract for another two or three seasons.  Luckily for the Rockies, Tulowitski is a good bet to provide enough value to justify his contract assuming he stays healthy.  It's not a bad signing.  Just a confusing one.