Sabathia Expected to Opt Out

Yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post had a chance to catch up with Carsten Charles Sabathia.  Despite numerous opportunities to outright state his intentions to decline the opt out clause in his contract, as he'd previously stated, and remain with the Yankees through 2015, he refused to give a concrete answer either way.

“Anything is possible in a contract.” In another, the big lefty said, “Who knows what is possible, but I am not thinking about anything beyond Opening Day.”

Yeah, that answer should end any and all speculation right there.  Yup.  Nothing to see here.   Did I miss the article where C.C. announces his intention to attend the Albert Pujols School of Distractions? 

Brien from IIATMS had this to say about the Sabathia situation:

I’m personally ambivalent on whether Sabathia decides to opt-out or not. The Yankees gave him that option, so he’s certainly got every right to do so if he wants. And heck, if it were me I’d opt out without giving it a second’s thought. I’m sure some people will write columns about how Sabathia doesn’t care about anything but the money, but those will be marginal voices and before long everyone will forget about the whole thing. But if Sabathia opts out after making everyone think he said he isn’t going to, those voices will be a lot louder and they’ll find a much larger audience that sympathizes.

Brien's absolutely right.  Sabathia's issue isn't that he hasn't made a decision.  The problem is that, in December, Sabathia emphatically stated that he would not be opting out after the upcoming season.  Now, all of the sudden, the decision is up in the air.  I suppose we should have seen this coming all along.  Then again, shouldn't Greg Genske, Sabathia's agent, have seen the opt out questions coming as well?  Isn't that what he's paid to do?   If I were Sabathia's agent, I would've sat him down, and come up with a prepared, standard response to any and all questions on the subject.  Something like, "I'm aware of the clause.  While I haven't made any decisions, I fully intend to sit down with my agent at the end of the season to discuss my options.  Right now, I'm solely focused on leading my team to championship number 28," would have been more than sufficient.  If he'd used that statement (or something similar) back in December, Sabathia's comments the other day wouldn't have been news. 

Later, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reported that a source "with knowledge of the situation" informed him that "barring a major injury or unforeseen circumstance," Sabathia would exercise the opt out clause and become a free agent. 

As I've mentioned in previous articles, opting out is probably the smart move for Sabathia.  While leaving four years and $92M on the table is a risk, it's certainly warranted given the five year $125M contract Cliff Lee received from the Phillies in December.  Sabathia is both younger and a slightly better pitcher than Lee, so it's not out of the realm of possibility he exceeds Lee's contract both in terms of length and average annual value.  In all likelihood, this is his last chance to really cash in on his talent.  He might as well make the most of it while he can.  If I were him, I wouldn't give it a second thought.

CC Drops 30 Pounds, White Castle Stock Plummets Admist Stockholder Panic

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia has lost about 30 pounds this winter, and will come into camp in the best shape in several years.  Apparently, the motivation behind Sabathia's weight loss was to reduce the pressure on his balky knee that's been giving him trouble in recent years.  In turn, this should probably help his performance both in the upcoming season and each season afterward, assuming he can keep the weight off.

While I think it's great when anyone takes steps toward improving his or her health, I can't help but wonder if Sabathia was driven by an alternate motivating factor.  It's no secret that Sabathia can "opt out" of his contract after the season.  Even though he's indicated that he's not interested in exercising the clause, I can't help but notice he hasn't officially declined his right to do so.  In all honesty, he'd be stupid to do it, if only because he has so much to gain by exercising it.  Let me explain.

Sabathia projects to be worth approximately 5.5 WAR for the 2011 season.  Assuming he follows the average half win decrease per season aging curve, Sabathia is a good bet to put up a WAR line of 5.5/5.0/4.5/4.0/3.5 (22.5 WAR) over the final five seasons of his contract.  I doesn't take a statistical wizard to look at these numbers and determine that Sabathia would be putting himself in a much better financial situation by opting out at age-31.

By opting out, Sabathia would enter the free agent market a full year younger than Cliff Lee was this past offseason.  Additionally, the pitching free agent market is fairly weak next year with aging stars like Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, and Mark Buehrle leading the charge.  While these pitchers will certainly draw considerable interest, teams would find a pitcher of Sabathia's caliber far more desirable.  As a result, he'd be in a great position to clean up, and sign a contract exceeding Cliff Lee's five year $125M contract with the Phillies.

If Sabathia chose to remain loyal to the Yankees and declined his "opt out" clause, he'd likely be entering the market as a 3.0-3.5 win pitcher.  While he'd still be a valuable commodity, his next contract would likely be worth significantly less than the one he'd be likely to receive next season as a free agent.  In all likelihood, he'd be compromising his ability to maximize his earning power over the long haul.

As it currently stands, Sabathia has too much to gain by opting out of the seven year $161M contract he signed in December 2008.  While I have no doubt his knee played a role in his decision to lose 30 pounds, the allure of signing another lucrative deal was likely the primary motivating factor.  Typically when players come into Spring Training "in the best shape of their life" (or something close to it), it's during a "contract year" in which the player is angling to break the bank during the offseason.  Sabathia appears to be doing just that.  I certainly don't blame him.  In fact, I'd do exactly the same thing if I were in his shoes.  

Sabathia Says He Won’t Opt Out After 2011

Did you know that C.C. Sabathia can opt out of his 7 year $161M contract after the 2011 season?  Neither did I.  As of right now, he doesn’t have any intention of exercising his “opt out” clause.

"C.C. Sabathia said whatever Cliff Lee pulls down won't lead to the Yankees' ace exercising an opt out clause in his contract after next year.

"It has no effect on me at all," Sabathia told The Post yesterday when asked if Lee's projected windfall could lead the Yankees' ace to opt out of the seven-year deal that has four years and $97 million remaining.

Sabathia said late last season he wasn't going to opt out. He has built a big house in Bergen County, which he lives in all year, and enjoys pitching for the Yankees."

While that's a nice sentiment, I have one question.  What’s the point of having an “opt out” clause if you’re not going to use it?  The last few players that exercised their “opt out” clause (J.D. Drew and A.J. Burnett come to mind) made huge scores on the free agent market.  Considering the free-for-all this offseason’s free agent market has become, Sabathia has to at least entertain the idea.  Right? 

Let's look at this rationally.  If Sabathia opts out after the 2011 season, he'll be 31 years old.  If decides to honor his contract and remain with the Yankees through 2015, he'll be 35.  At which age do you figure he'll be able to the negotiate most lucrative deal?  At 31, of course!  If Cliff Lee can get offers around 6 years $150M at age 32, what kind of offers will Sabathia get next year at age 31? 

Sabathia is an absolute workhorse.  He misses bats, possess great control, keeps the ball on the ground, and eats up innings.  Over the past five seasons, he's been one of the top five most valuable pitchers in baseball posting 31.6 WAR (6.32 per season on average).  Sabathia projects to be a 5.0-5.5 WAR pitcher in 2011, which puts him in an optimal position to clean up on the free agent market should he choose to opt out.   If he decides to wait until the end of his contract (2015), he projects to be a 3.0-3.5 WAR pitcher.  While he'd still be valuable commodity, the value of his next contract would likely be significantly smaller than the theoretical contract he could sign as a free agent next year. 

When it comes down to it, the smartest move for Sabathia is to opt out of his contract.  Yes, he'd be leaving 4 years and $97M on the table.  Yes, there's a possibility he could risk returning to the Yankees in doing so.  Still, it's too lucrative for him not to test the market.  The free agent pitching market looks to be pretty thin next season with mid-30s pitchers Mark Buehrle, Chris Carpenter, and Roy Oswalt being the cream of the crop.  In all likelihood, he'd not only re-sign with the Yankees, but also get a deal on par with the 6/$150M (or more) Lee has been offered.

I have no doubt Sabathia is being sincere right now.  I'm guessing his stance will probably change once he's told what he has to gain from opting out.

More on AJ Burnett Making a Start

Yesterday, in my haste to put up my post on AJ Burnett, I failed to notice an excellent article by Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski on the same topic.  While he agreed Burnett would need to make at least on start during the ALCS, he suggested that perhaps the Yankees would've been better served throwing him in Game 5 with Sabathia starting Game 4.  His reasoning:

"For his part, Sabathia has been superb when pitching on three days’ rest. He has done it during the regular season four times in his career, accumulating 26.2 innings and allowing just seven runs, three earned. That also comes with 26 strikeouts to just six walks. In last year’s postseason he added another two starts and 14.2 innings with three days’ rest. His overall line:

41.1 IP, 28 H, 11 R, 7 ER, 11 BB, 37 K"

While 41-1/3 innings is a rather small sample size, his performance during that sample has been impressive.  Over the past 20 years or so, pitchers have not only been subject to strict pitch counts, but also conditioned to pitch on four to five days' rest.  Most pitchers of the current era struggle when asked to pitch on three days' rest, typically when it comes to pitch command.  Sabathia is different.  He's a bit of a throwback.  He seems to get stronger as most pitchers tire.  (This is evidenced by his unbelievable pitching line from June to September over the past three seasons.)  He's thrived pitching on short rest, and shown an ability to go deep into games, occasionally going 20-25 pitches beyond the typical 100 pitch count limit.  Given his past success in such situations, pitching Sabathia in Game 4 on short rest probably would've given the Yankees a better chance to even the series at 2-2.  (As it turns out, Burnett struggled giving up five runs, six hits, and three walks in six innings of a 10-3 loss to the Rangers.)  Additionally, pitching Sabathia in Game 4 would've allowed the Yankees to use him in Game 7 in a long-relief role if Pettitte struggled out of the gate.  Of course, the flip side of the argument is what if Sabathia lost Game 4?  Then, the Yankees would've been forced to throw Burnett in Game 5, facing elimination.  Sure, it's a risk, but worth it.  Plus, Derek Lowe started and won two elimination games during the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees after struggling all season to the tune of a 5.42 ERA.

Of course, this is all theoretical, and we could debate this all day long.  We don't have the power to turn back the clock, and convince Girardi to give CC a shot at evening the series.  After reading Pawlikowski's article, I'm fairly convinced (even if he's not) that his scenario would've given the Yankees a better opportunity to even the series, and therefore given the Yankees to avoid a potential Game 7 death match against Cliff Lee.