Michael Young Video and Other News

If you haven't seen this video of a mother telling her three year old son that his favorite baseball player, Michael Young, will probably be traded from his favorite team, the Rangers, you should.  It's as adorable as it is heartbreaking.  At first he doesn't understand what his mother is trying to tell him.  Once he figures it out, the little boy becomes both deeply distressed and saddened by the news.  I think it's safe to say that baseball lost a young fan--no pun intended.  Hope you enjoy the video!

Also, it might be a little quiet content wise over the next couple of days.  For those of you who don't know, as a columnist for Fire Brand of the American League, I've been given an opportunity to write an article for ESPN.  Originally, my article was supposed to about Derek Jeter's prospects for returning to form, but that article proved to be too long for ESPN.  Instead, that article will run at Fire Brand on Friday morning.  In it's place, I'm putting together a commentary piece on Hank Steinbrenner's recent comments.  If you're interested, you'll be able to read it on Thursday afternoon at the ESPN Sweet Spot on the MLB page.

Teams Line Up to Acquire Mediocre Player

Another day, another team interested in Michael Young. 

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Arizona Diamondbacks are the latest team to express interest in trading for the disgruntled former All-Star.  

“The Diamondbacks view Young as a possible upgrade over Melvin Mora at third base, but their talks with the Rangers have yet to escalate – and might not, according to major-league sources.

The D-Backs are in a similar position to the Marlins, another team that is pursuing Young but has only limited payroll flexibility.”

Yes, Young would be an upgrade over Mora, but not as big of an upgrade as many would like to believe.  Young’s reputation as both a leader and hitter far exceeds his actual capabilities.  After publicly demanding a trade; airing his grievances with GM Jon Daniels to the media; and having not one, but two temper-tantrums in two years after being asked to switch positions, it’s pretty clear to everyone (or at least it should be) that Young is not the team leader most of us assumed him to be.  I’m not saying he’s not within his rights to be disappointed.  In fact, he has every right to be upset.  I would be as well. That said, a true leader swallows his pride, and does what’s best for the team.  Young has had several opportunities to handle the situation with class and dignity, and he’s failed to do so every step of the way.

As a hitter, Young’s reputation is largely predicated upon two things:  (1) his ability to hit for power, and (2) the five consecutive 200-hit seasons he produced between 2003 and 2007.  While Young has retained his ability to hit for power, he hasn’t retained that same level of skill when it comes to getting on base.  Young, never skilled at drawing a walk, was the type of player who reached base the old fashion way (getting a hit), and achieved a paltry 6.7% walk rate during his ten year career.  As he aged, his ability to get on base, via the hit, regressed.  Not surprisingly, without a high batting average to prop up his OBP, Young began creating additional outs, thereby limiting his ability to contribute offensively.  As a result, Young has been a decidedly average hitter over the past four seasons, producing 9.3, 1.5, 27.6, and 8.0 weighted runs above average (wRAA).  His four year wRAA total of 46.4 runs puts him in the same company as Cody Ross, Marlon Byrd, and Adam LaRoche.  This shows that while Young is a solid hitter, he’s by no means elite.

While five consecutive 200-hit seasons might seem impressive, it’s really not when you consider the number of opportunities he was given (725 plate appearances per season, on average) to achieve that goal.*  Young’s streak of 200-hit seasons was largely opportunity based, and frequently came at the expense of plate discipline and creation of additional outs.  Furthermore, I don’t see how his five 200-hit seasons, the last of which occurred four years ago, have any bearing on his future performance.  Over the last three seasons, Young has had ample opportunity to prove he was still capable of accumulating 200 hits in a season.  Despite receiving similar number of plate appearances, he’s failed to come within reasonable striking distance of meeting that threshold.  This is a clear sign that Young’s hitting abilities are in a state of decline.  Considering his age, 34, and recent performance history, it’s pretty unlikely that Young will achieve another 200-hit season before his career ends.  While it’s factually correct that Young achieved five consecutive 200-hit seasons that fact is largely irrelevant when discussing his expected future performance.

* I don’t want to devalue his achievement, but there’s an important distinction to be made here.  The ability to hit is skill based.  The ability to accumulate hits is opportunity based.  In my opinion, Young’s achievement was largely based on opportunity.  His position in the batting order, along with his inability to draw walks (6.7 BB% for his career), gave him considerable opportunity to compile hits.  Hitters either more patient or hitting lower in the batting order would not have the same number of opportunities to compile hits as easily as Young; therefore, they’d like accumulate fewer hits as a result.  The difference in hit totals doesn’t make them lesser hitters than Young.  In fact, it’s possible they’re better than Young due to their ability to not only draw walks, but also create fewer outs.  Still, most people will consider the player with the higher hit total (Young) to be a better hitter.  Why?  Most fans and sports writers don’t consider the context of the situation when making that determination.

As for a potential trade, the Diamondbacks are in the same situation as the Dodgers and Marlins.  With little room for payroll flexibility, Arizona would likely need the Rangers to absorb a sizeable portion of the $48M remaining on Young’s contract.  How much would they want the Rangers to absorb?  I don’t want to speculate, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were asked to eat anywhere from 50-75%.  Additionally, the Diamondbacks are not on Young’s no trade exception list, so the two sides would need Young’s buy-in prior to completing a trade. 

If you ask me, it sounds like the Diamondbacks are doing their due diligence by kicking the tires, which is something Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is famous for doing.  In all likelihood, trade discussions will not progress any further. 

Marlins Check in on Young

Seems like everyone's kicking the tires on Michael Young these days.  According to Ken Rosenthal, the Marlins are the latest team to express interest in the former All-Star. 

Not surprisingly, a source with knowledge of the discussions called the trade prospects between the two clubs "a real reach."  In order to make a deal work, the Rangers would have to eat a substantial portion of the $48M remaining on Young's contract.  Now, this is pure speculation, but considering the Marlins status as a low revenue club, I'd have to imagine they'd want the Rangers to eat as much as 75% (similar to what the Dodgers reportedly requested) of the contract.  As I've mentioned before, it doesn't make sense for the Rangers to bite a such a lopsided deal because it would hamper their ability to improve their roster going forward.

The Marlins do need a third baseman.  Currently, Matt Dominguez, who hasn't started a game above AA, is listed as their starting third baseman.  Ideally, Young would be an upgrade, but he figures to be too expensive to be considered a reasonable option. 

Additionally, the Marlins are not included on Young's no trade exception list, so he'd have to approve any trade before it gets finalized.   For reference, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, the eight teams on Young's no trade exception list are the Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Twins, Yankees, Cardinals and Astros.

Andy MacPhail is Terribly Wrong

Just a little bit more from Bob Nightengale’s article on Pujols…

His article uses a much discussed quote by Orioles president Andy MacPhail that I wanted to touch upon.

"I read that he's looking for $30 million a year, and I just can't see how that's going to happen…Alex Rodriguez to Texas was the worst signing in the history of baseball in my view," said MacPhail, referring to the 10-year, $252 million deal signed in December 2000. "There is this assumption that because this guy got (a huge contract) and this guy got (an even bigger contract), Albert Pujols has to get (more than both). Well, what if there are no bidders? What if the music stops and there are no chairs?"

In most cases, I’d agree with MacPhail.  In the game of musical chairs, it’s never fun to be left without a chair when the music stops.  Still, isn’t MacPhail the pot calling the kettle black in this situation?  Isn’t he the front office executive that offered Vlad Guerrero a $2M contract, and then later tripled the offer despite the fact there weren’t any non-imaginary bidders?  Maybe it’s just me, but I think it’d be best for MacPhail to keep his mouth shut.

In addition, MacPhail couldn’t be more wrong about his assessment of A-Rod’s contract with Rangers.  Was it ill-advised?  Probably.  Could it have been avoided?  Absolutely.  Was it the worst contract in baseball history?  Definitely not.  In fact, it’s not even close.  Furthermore, A-Rod’s contract didn’t ruin the Rangers.  It was the large sum of money the front office chose to spend on replacement level players that did them in.  Their pitching staff, in particular, was absolutely putrid.  During the A-Rod era, only once (among qualifying pitchers) did a Rangers pitcher produce a season that exceeded the replacement level threshold.  Once!  That pitcher was Kenny Rogers in 2002 with an unbelievably feeble 0.1 fWAR. 
So how poorly did the Rangers spend their money?  Let’s take a look.

In 2001, the Rangers spent $40.2M of their $87M payroll on the following players, and received 1.6 fWAR in return:  Kenny Rogers ($7.5M), Darren Oliver ($7M), Andres Galarraga ($6M), Rusty Greer ($4.6M), Rick Helling ($4.5M), Ken Caminiti ($3.5M), Randy Velarde ($3.15M), Mark Petkovsek ($2.05M), and Chad Curtis ($1.9M).

In 2002, the Rangers spent $58.7M of their $106M payroll on the following players, and received 1.7 fWAR in return:  Juan Gonzalez ($11M), Carl Everett ($8.67M), Kenny Rogers ($7.5M), Chan Ho Park ($6.88M), Rusty Greer ($6.8M), John Rocker ($2.5M), Ismael Valdez ($2.5M), Frank Catalanotto ($2.5M), Jay Powell ($2.5M), Dave Burba ($2M), Todd Van Poppel ($2M), Gabe Kapler ($1.85M), Dan Miceli ($1M), and Rudy Seanez ($1M).

In 2003, the Rangers spent $54.9 of their $103M payroll on the following players, and received 3.4 fWAR in return:  Juan Gonzalez ($13M), Chan Ho Park (13M) Carl Everett ($9.15M), Ugueth Urbina ($4.5M), Jay Powell ($3.25M), Ismael Valdez ($2.5M), Todd Van Poppel ($2M), Einer Diaz ($1.87M), Esteban Yan ($1.5M), Herbert Perry ($1.3M), John Thomson ($1.3M), and Doug Glanville ($1.0M).

During the A-Rod era, the Rangers managed to spend approximately $155M on mediocre talent, while receiving 6.7 fWAR in return.  For those of you who aren’t quick with math, that equals out to be $23M per win—hardly an efficient use of funds.  For reference, by today’s standards, the average cost of a win is around $5M.  Back in the early aughts, it was around $2.5-3.0M. 

Blaming A-Rod’s contract as the reason the Rangers failed during his time in Texas is both false and intellectually dishonest.  A-Rod did everything he possibly could to help the team win.  It’s not his fault the team wasted millions (nearly 40-50% of the overall payroll) on replacement level quality players.  That blame rests squarely on the front office. 

The Saga Continues...

The Michael Young trade market is alive with rumors.  The trade discussions with the Rockies seem to be locked in neutral.  Then, the Phillies threw their hat in the ring because God forbid Ruben Amaro doesn't at least attempt to trade for an overrated and overpaid player.  Semi-surprisingly, those talks went nowhere.  The Angels, who previously expressed interest, officially pulled out of the running when GM Tony Reaggins ruled out such a move during an interview with the Los Angeles Times on Thursday. 

Now, Ken Rosenthal reports that multiple sources have informed him the Rangers are in serious trade talks with the Dodgers.  A deal does not appear to be imminent.  One source was pretty negative about the prospects of a deal getting done because of Young's contract situation.  In order to make a deal work, the Dodgers reportedly want the Rangers to absorb as much as 75% (or $36M) of the remaining $48M on Young's contract.  Absorbing that much money would be an incredibly difficult pill for the Rangers to swallow, and one that would hamper their ability to improve the roster going forward.  Rangers GM Jon Daniels is a pretty smart guy, so he's probably already figured out that there are potentially better trade options available down the road provided he remains patient.  It's not worthwhile for the Rangers to move him just for the sake of getting him off of the roster.  

Unfortunately for the Rangers, that means it's unlikely they'll move him before Spring Training starts in a few days.  It's not an ideal situation, but one in which they'll have to live.  Hopefully, Young exhibits the kind of respect he claims to have for Rangers president Nolan Ryan and manager Ron Washington, and shows up at camp with the intent of not drawing attention to himself.  Young exhibiting the leadership qualities he supposedly possesses would go along way towards starting the healing process.

Hamilton Signs Two Year Extension

According to Jon Heyman of SI, the Rangers and Josh Hamilton have come to terms on a two year $24M deal.  The contract includes a $3M signing bonus, $7.25M for 2011, and $13.75M for 2012.

There's not a whole lot to say about the signing that I didn't say on Monday when rumors of a possible extension started flying.  The two year contract not only allows the two sides to avoid a potentially messy arbitration hearing on February 14th, but also buys out the final two seasons of Hamilton's arbitration eligibility. 

Last season, Hamilton won the AL MVP Award on the strength of a .447 wOBA, 40 doubles, 32 home runs, and 8.0 fWAR.

As the Michael Young World Turns

When Vlad Guerrero finally signed with Orioles, the Hot Stove League turned its lonely eyes to Rangers DH Michael Young.  Luckily, for those of us whom are Hot Stove junkies, the Young saga has been one full of unpredictable twists and turns.  It has not disappointed. 

Last night, Troy Renck of the Denver Post shared another interesting twist.  According to a source close to the Rockies, the team has pulled out of trade discussions with the Rangers, and plans to enter Spring Training with Ian Stewart as their starting third baseman.  Not surprisingly, the primary factors in the talks breaking down were the Rangers trade demands and the $48M remaining on Young’s contract.  As Renck reports, the Rangers asking price increased once Guerrero signed with the Orioles.  Left without a replacement, the Rangers became apprehensive with the idea of giving Young away while eating a significant portion of his remaining contract.

As I reported the other day, Young’s contract is not one that will be easy to get around.  In order to get teams to even considering sitting down at the negotiating table, the Rangers will likely have to agree to eat anywhere from $15-25M upfront.  That’s just to get the ball rolling.  Even with the Rangers eating a significant portion of the $48M remaining on Young’s contract, they’ll likely have to made additional concessions regarding the quality of players they receive back in return for the former All-Star.  Understandably, this is going to be a very tough pill for the Rangers to swallow, but they made their bed with this situation a long time ago.  They signed him to the contract, and now they have to live with the consequences of their decision.

The one thing that confuses me about Renck’s report is that the Rangers already have a viable replacement for Young, should he be traded:  Mike Napoli.  With C Yorvit Torrealba and 1B Mitch Moreland on the roster, Napoli would seem to fit naturally into the DH spot vacated by Young.  With Napoli’s strong offensive skill set, it’s not unreasonable to think he could eclipse Young’s offensive output in 2011.  I’ll admit that moving Napoli from a C/1B utility situation to a full time DH does make the Rangers weaker at catcher and first base.  Still, I don’t believe it makes them weak enough to justify not moving Young.  This is no time for the Rangers to be rigid.  As a team trading a surplus player with a bad contract, they have little leverage in this situation.  While I’m assuming the Rangers planned for him to split time between catcher and first base, this situation calls for their plans to remain fluid. 

So how far has the situation between Young and the Rangers deteriorated?  Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports provides some particularly juicy information in his latest article.

“I asked for a trade because I’ve been misled and manipulated and I’m sick of it,” Young told FOXSports.com. “. . . I got pushed into a corner one too many times. I couldn’t take it any more.”

Young would not go into specifics, but hinted at a rift with Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, saying, “I know the truth. And so does JD.” Daniels declined comment, but during a conference call with reporters earlier Monday, he referred certain questions to team president Nolan Ryan because Ryan had spoken with Young more recently.

Yikes!  This is already a bad situation, and it’s poised to get even worse.  As it stands, Young is unhappy, expensive, and at risk of losing playing time.  It might be better for the Rangers to swallow their tongue, and take the best deal possible--even if that means they get little in return.  As I said above, the Rangers don’t have a lot of leverage trading a surplus player with a bad contract.

Hamilton, Rangers Working on Two Year Deal

According to T.R. Sullivan of mlb.com, 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton and the Rangers are "making progress towards settling his contract situation so they will not have to go to an arbitration hearing."

Unfortunately, the article didn't include anything really specific, although I'm sure more information is coming.  Hamilton is in his second season of arbitration eligibility.  When the two sides exchanged arbitration figures last month, Hamilton requested $12M and the Rangers countered with $8.7M.   If both parties can't come to an agreement, they'll have to appear in front before arbitrator on February 14th.  Arbitration hearings tend to be incredibly uncomfortable affairs, so they'll likely do whatever they can to avoid that fate.

A two year deal would only put Hamilton under the Rangers control through 2012.  After that, he'd become a free agent.  While no information has been released as to the size of the potential deal, I'd have to guess it will end up being worth around $22-28M.  That's purely speculation on my part, but it's an educated guess based on the going rate of similar players.  While this deal would a certain level of cost certainty for the Rangers, it also increases the likelihood he leaves as a free agent in a couple of years.  If he continues to play at the level he did in 2010 (unlikely considering his BABIP driven OBP), he could price himself out of the Rangers comfort zone.

The Michael Young Saga Continues

There's been quite a whirlwind of news surrounding Michael Young these last few days.  First, Buster Olney mentioned in his report that "something had changed" in the relationship between the Rangers and Young, and that he wished to be traded.   Then, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Rangers had recently reopened the long dormant trade discussions with the Rockies.  Sounds good, right?  Wrong.  Troy Renck of the Denver Post (and Twitter extraordinaire) reported that he's spoken with multiple sources with direct knowledge of Rockies on-field operations, and was informed that trade talks had not been reopened. 

This brings us up to today.  Now, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports reports Texas is going to "attempt" to trade Young because the infielder-turned-DH has become "disillusioned with his diminished role with his team." 

As everyone knows, the Rangers signed free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre to a huge five year $80M conract in early January to play third base.  Young, as the incumbent third baseman, needed to either be traded or moved to another position.  Unable to find any takers, the Rangers announced they were making Young their permanent full-time DH.  Considering the temper tantrum he had when the Rangers moved him from short to third a couple of years ago, you can imagine that he was less than thrilled when he was informed of the decision. 

To make matters worse for Young, the Rangers recently traded for former Angel Mike Napoli.  Napoli is primarily a catcher and first baseman, but the Rangers already have full-time players at those positions in Mitch Moreland and Yorvit Torrealba.  While Napoli will likely still see a lot of playing time at both positions, he's expected to get the remainder of his plate appearances at the DH spot Young currently encumbers.  It doesn't take Albert Einstein (or even Kevin Federline) to realize that more PAs at DH for Napoli means fewer PAs for Young.  Young, being the reasonably intelligent guy he is, saw the writing on the wall, and has asked for a trade.  Judging by the Rangers actions in recent months, I'm pretty sure they want him out of Texas too.

As I've mentioned a few times before, the biggest issue with moving Michael Young is the three years and $48M he's owed through 2013.  Young, 34, is roughly a 2.5 win player right now, and will continue to decline over the next few seasons.  Using the typical regression pattern of 0.5 WAR per season, Young can only be expected to provide 6.0 WAR over the next three seasons--maybe 7.0 if a little luck rolls his way.  At $5M per win, it's very unlikely Young will be able to produce enough value to justify the cost of his salary.  As a result, the Rangers will probably have to agree to eat anywhere between $15-25M of his remaining contract just to get any team to listen.   Recent reports had the Rockies expecting the Rangers to pick up around $20M of Young's contract.

Interesting thing to note:  Brown hears that the Angels are interested in acquiring Young.  I am Jack's total lack of surprise.  After taking on Vernon Wells and $81M of the $86M remaining on his contract, I half expected the Angels to be interested in Young.  He's both overpaid and overrated--just the type of player the Angels love.  While I'd be surprised to see them be willing to take on Young's entire $48M contract, nothing would surprise me at this point. 

Hamilton, Rangers Still Negotiating

According to Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas, the Rangers and AL MVP Josh Hamilton are still negotiating a deal for the 2011 season in hopes of avoiding salary arbitration. 

"We have a very good relationship with Mike Moye," Levine said. "I would characterize our communication as very open and strong. Needless to say, we may have slightly different opinions, but we're working through things and with each call we're making progress. We haven't announced a deal yet, so we still have work to do. But I think both sides have talked about things and made progress."

While it's possible the two sides are still working on negotiating a long-term deal, it seems much more likely that the two sides will agree to a one year deal.  When the two sides exchanged arbitration figures on January 18th, the two sides were $3.3M apart.  Though it seems logical that both parties would meet somewhere in the middle at $10.35M, that doesn't always happen.  After the season Hamilton had last year (.447 wOBA, 8.0 fWAR, AL MVP, ALCS MVP), he looks to be in a great position to win his arbitration case should it get to that point.  If I were his agent, I'd be advising him to sit tight.

Randy Levine De-Friends Chuck Greenberg

If I could compare the Yankees off-season acquisitions to wine, I'd say the vintage is on par with the week old boxed variety. With also-rans like Bartolo Colon and Andruw Jones creeping into the vinegar stage of their respective careers, it is a wonder that the front office didn't go after Fernando Valenzuela and Kirk Gibson.

Yet several months after the Yankees lost out to a refined Cliff Lee Bordeaux, apparently both the Yankees and the Texas Ranger have yet to rinse the taste of bitter grapes out of their mouths. However, instead of directing their angst against Cliff Lee or the Philadelphia Phillies, Yankees president Randy Levine has gotten involved in a media war with Texas Rangers owner Chuck Greenberg. 

Greenberg has publicly stated that he was glad Lee ended up in the NL and not with the Yankees. This comes on the heels of Greenberg's previous comments regarding Cliff Lee not wanting to come to New York because of the fans reaction towards Lee's wife. Rather than letting this go and dismissing Greenberg's words as the lament of an owner who lost the Cliff Lee Sweepstakes, Levine fired back. The Yankees' president called the Rangers' owner's statements "delusional" and that he'll "be impressed when he demonstrates he can keep the Rangers off welfare."

Ouch.

As much as Levine needs to retract the claws and focus on the Yankees upcoming season and their lack of starting left handed pitching, his statements while vitriolic have some validity. The cold hard financial facts are that the Rangers have received revenue sharing for three years running, have taken financing from baseball, and taken advance money from the TV networks.

Also Chuck you might want to remember that you just now completed the purchase of the Rangers with Nolan Ryan and it wouldn't have happened at all if MLB had not stepped in. Although the Rangers made the World Series last year, why don't you try putting a consistently winning team on the baseball field before you start pointing the finger at other ball clubs. Until that time I think Levine has the one up on success here.

Additionally, Chuck Greenberg might want to avoid ridiculous statements like this:

 "We pried the door open a little bit to give ourselves another opportunity. And ultimately the Phillies were able to take advantage of the opportunity we created. While we would have preferred that he'd chosen to go with us, we're real pleased that he's going to the other league."

Ok so what he's saying is that he's glad that the Phillies were able to sweep in and take Lee at the last minute? You created the opportunity for the Phillies so basically they had to make little to no effort? I'm sure the fans of your ball club are thrilled that you seemed more concerned about keeping Lee from the Yankees than actually signing him.

It is this kind of thinking that underscores why the Yankees are the Yankees and the Rangers are the Rangers. You can't be an elite team if you're more concerned with keeping players away from good teams than you are about signing those players to your team. You also can't make money either. The Red Sox made a great acquisition in the off-season picking up Crawford, but I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have intervened to make sure Crawford went to the Colorado Rockies instead of the Yankees if they couldn't attain him. That's because the Red Sox,like the Yankees, care about improving their respective teams rather than getting in a media pissing contest. (For the record Levine never should have gotten drawn into this mess. I thought he was smarter than that.)

My advice to Chuck is to focus on the 2011 season and how the Rangers are going to move on and be a successful team without Lee. Chuck you also might want to make some money while your at it so your fans can stop paying for hot dogs from Aldi's.

Napoli on the Move...Again

It looks like Mike Napoli is on the move again.  According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Blue Jays have traded their recently acquired catcher to the Texas Rangers in exchange for relief pitcher Frank Francisco.

I have to admit that I'm a little bit surprised by this trade, but that's mostly because it's rare to see a player traded twice within the same week.  Napoli doesn't seem like the ideal fit in Texas.  Currently, the Rangers already have players encumbered at his natural positions with Yorvit Torrealba at catcher, Mitch Moreland at first base, and Michael Young at DH.  Still, despite the positional roadblock, I don't foresee Napoli having any problems accumulating 500 plate appearances next season.  My best guess is that Napoli will serve as the Rangers version of Victor Martinez:  play first base against lefties, split time at catcher with Torrealba, and occasionally spell Michael Young at DH.  I should note that this definitely ends any chance Vladmir Guerrero had of re-signing with the Rangers.

Other than the positional complication, this trade should benefit Napoli.  The Ballpark at Arlington seems to play into his one natural offensive skill--the ability to hit home runs.  With Napoli going into his age-29 season and moving to a ballpark that heavily favors power hitters, it wouldn't surprise me to see Napoli breach the 30 homer threshold for the first time next season.  Also, moving away from the Angels could help Napoli rediscover the patience and plate discipline skills that dissipated over the course of his tenure in Anaheim.   If he can rediscover his ability to draw walks, he would become a much more bigger offensive threat for the Rangers.

The Blue Jays acquiring Frank Francisco strikes me as being a little bit redundant.  After losing closer Kevin Gregg and lefty set-up man Scott Downs via free agency, understandably the Blue Jays wanted to rebuild their bullpen.  In doing so, they retained Jason Frasor, signed Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch via free agency, and have now traded for Francisco.  While all four pitchers are quality relievers, I can't help but notice they're all right handed.  Personally, I would've thought that if the Blue Jays were going to trade for another relief pitcher, it might have been a lefty.  Then again, that's just me. 

Francisco's role appears to be unclear at the moment.  Initially, there were reports that Octavio Dotel would close for the Blue Jays in 2011.  With Francisco, a former closer, in the mix, I'm not sure that report remains as true today as it did last month.  Francisco has very good stuff, and tends to miss bats at a high rate.  While he walks a few too many batters to ever be an elite level closer, but not enough that he couldn't be effective in the role over the long haul.  My guess is that he'll be given every opportunity to wrestle ninth inning duties away from Dotel during Spring Training and the first part of the season. 

Frank Francisco produced a 3.12 FIP with a 60/18 K/BB ratio, and 1.0 fWAR in 52-2/3 innings.

Vlad's Options are Shrinking

The market for Vlad has been eerily quiet all winter.  While I never expected him to be among the most highly sought after free agents, I certainly expected him to be signed by now.  Now, that he's the last remaining big name free agent remaining on the market, reports have finally started coming in fast and furious. 

Today, SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers are out of the running, and the Orioles have "limited funds at this stage" with which to sign him.  At first glance, it seems a little bit surprising that a player who put up a .300/29/115 season would still be trolling the free agent market in search of an acceptable contract at the end of January.  Then, you remember that he's about to turn 36, and that he's completely untrustworthy defensively.  Also, Manny Ramirez, a reasonably close comparable, recently received a one year $2.5M deal from the Rays this past weekend, which probably hurt his value immensely.

It's becoming much more clear to me that Vlad is going to have to settle for a one year deal around $1.0-1.5M with lots of performance based incentives.  Me thinks he shouldn't have pushed his demands for a two year deal for so long.  Otherwise, he might've received a much more favorable contract by now.

Rangers Leave Door Open for Vlad

When Rangers President Nolan Ryan speaks, people tend to listen.  Perhaps it has something to do with the fact he's a living legend, or maybe it's because he's shown that he lacks the internal monologue most of us employ.  Either way, he's direct, and you always know what's on his mind.  Yesterday, he took some questions from fans at the Rangers fan fest, and had this to say about Vladmir Guererro.

"They were looking for a two-year contract and we had agreed with him and his agent that it was a mutual option this year, so we agreed to let them go out on the market and see what the market bared. And he hadn't been able, to this point, to get a two-year contract. Is there still a possibility that he could end up signing with us? Yeah, there is. But I'm not for sure what other interest is out there as far as he is concerned. I think that will play out in the next 20 days before spring training. ... You'd love to have that bat, another right-handed bat on the bench, or him DHing when Michael Young is playing a position. That will obviously come into play in the decision of where he's going to go. How many at-bats he thinks he's going to get somewhere."

I would like to remind you that the last time Ryan left the door open to sign a free agent, that man was Adrian Beltre.  Within a week, Beltre was a Ranger.  I'm not predicting he'll sign with the Rangers.  I'm not even saying there's a pattern here that we should keep an eye on.  I'm just pointing out the similarities in the situations. 

Much like the Beltre situation, there isn't an obvious fit for Guererro.  The Rangers currently have Michael Young covering the DH spot, and there's absolutely no chance they give Vlad another shot to play the outfield; especially after his dreadful performance in Game 1 of the World Series.  That leaves him with one option if he decides to sign with the Rangers--agree to a one year contract and be their part-time DH.  Otherwise, he can continue to troll the free agent market in hopes of scoring a starting job with either the Orioles or Angels, both of whom are projected to be non-contenders.  Both options have their benefits and drawbacks.  It's almost like a poison pill.  Such is the life of an aging slugger.

Beltre, Rangers Very Close to Deal

UPDATE (1/4/2011 at 2:24 p.m.):  According to T.R. Sullivan of mlb.com, Beltre will sign with the Rangers for six years and $96M.  The contract apparently would contain a clause (similar to the one in Magglio Ordonez’s contract) that would allow the Rangers to void the sixth season if he failed to accumulate enough plate appearances.  The final details still have to be worked out, but this appears to be a done deal. 

Original Post (1/4/2011 at 1:15 p.m.):  I told you we hadn’t heard the last of the Adrian Beltre to the Rangers rumors. 

According to Jon Heyman of SI, Adrian Beltre is close to signing a six year deal with the Rangers that’s expected to be worth $90-100M.  Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports confirmed Heyman’s report.  Perhaps those rumors coming out of the Dominican Republic on Sunday weren’t so bogus after all?

It’s still unclear as to whether the sixth year of the deal will be guaranteed or not.  Some reports have the sixth year being guaranteed, while others have it being a vesting option.  As more concrete information becomes available, I’ll be sure to post an update.  Either way, Beltre and Boras finally landed the deal they’ve been seeking for the past two offseasons. 

As I mentioned yesterday, this is a huge deal for the Rangers.  With Beltre’s arrival, Michael Young moves to DH.  This alone should provide a bonus of about 15-20 runs a year on the defensive side of ball.  Offensively, Beltre gives the Rangers another power bat that should have no problem putting up solid numbers in the run-happy environment known as the Ballpark at Arlington. 

As for the Angels, Beltre’s decision only complicates their issues further.  This offseason, they’ve fallen behind not only the Rangers, but also the Athletics whose young talented rotation makes them an outside threat for 90 wins in 2011.  According to John Sickles of minorleagueball.com, there doesn’t seem to be much help on the horizon coming out of the Angels farm system.  Super prospect Mike Trout is their only Grade A prospect, and he’s still a year and a half away from the big leagues.  Other than that, their best prospects seem to have ceilings on par with average to fringe major league players.  Futhermore, it doesn’t look like they’ll get much help from next year’s free agent crop either as it appears to be pretty underwhelming outside of Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols (the latter who’ll likely be re-signed in the next couple of months).  Unless the Angels come up with some creative alternatives (a la Billy Beane during their Moneyball hey day), the Angels could be in for a run of several disappointing seasons.

Beltre Deal Imminent?

UPDATE (1/3/2011 at 7:07 p.m.):  Well, it appears the imminent deal with Beltre may be not so imminent at all.  According to T.R. Sullivan of mlb.com, Texas officials are "not particularly optimistic" that a deal will get done with Beltre.  It's been quite a roller coaster ride for the Rangers and Beltre over the last few days, and I don't think we've heard the last of it either.

In related news the Rangers "sounded out to Michael Young about a possible position change."  Not surprisingly, he wasn't very receptive.  Really?  I'm shocked!  Two years ago, he handled his move from shortstop to third base so gracefully...

Original Post (1/3/2011 at 3:54 p.m.):  Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes reports that a deal between the Rangers and third baseman Adrian Beltre is “imminent.”  

"They are still talking and have not completed the details, but an agreement appears imminent," the source told ESPNdeportes.com.

Another source said the contract probably will be for five years, with an option for 2016.

Please exercise the appropriate level of skepticism regarding this report.  Yesterday, there were multiple reports out of the Dominican Republic claiming that Beltre and the Rangers had agreed on a 6 year $96M contract.  Each of these reports were later found to be incorrect by U.S. reporters.  Until I hear otherwise, I’m going to assume it’s just a rumor, albeit a very interesting one. 

Still, this is quite a coup for the Rangers if they did, in fact, land Beltre.  This would, of course, re-open the discussions of what do they do with Michael Young and the $48M he’s owed over the next three seasons.  Do they move him to designated hitter, as Dave Cameron of Fangraphs suggested the other day?  Or maybe first base?  Perhaps, they try to re-open trade discussions with the Rockies or some other team.  I’m not sure.  Either way, it should be very interesting to see how the Rangers handle this situation if the reports are true.

This is a huge blow to the Angels.  They desperately need an impact power bat, especially at third base where they received replacement level production out of three hapless players in 2010.  Beltre would’ve been an ideal solution for them both in the short-term, as well as the long-term.  Instead (assuming the reports are true), they’re stuck with the same trio of players at third base in 2011, unless they can come up with a creative solution. 

I don’t understand what’s going on with the Angels.  Owner Arte Moreno’s “take it or leave it” negotiating tactics don’t seem to sit well with players and their agents.  Until he and his front office learn to adapt the current free agent climate, the gap between the upstart Rangers and once mighty Angels will continue to get even wider. 

Rangers Still in Mix for Beltre

Don't count the Rangers out of the running for Adrian Beltre just yet.  In an interview with 1310 Sports Radio in Dallas, team President Nolan Ryan indicated they still had interest in signing the power hitting third baseman.

“Well, when you have a player of his caliber out there, you have to have an interest if it’s realistic within what your budget is and how he would fit into your ball club and how you would hit him in the lineup and stuff of that nature. So, obviously with our ball club, it wouldn’t be nearly as clear-cut as somebody else, say whether it be the Angels and the rumor is that Oakland has made him offer. I would say if you looked at the free agent market right now, he’s probably the premier free agent that’s still unsigned.”

As I've mentioned before, the Rangers would have to move incumbent third baseman Michael Young and the $48M remaining on his contract before they could make a serious run at Beltre.  Outside of the Rockies, no one else has stepped forward as a viable (or even casually interested) trading partner.  Those talks came to a screeching halt three weeks ago, and there aren't any signs the Rockies are interested in re-opening discussions.  The only other option is to move Michael Young to another position like first base or a corner outfield spot.  Considering his reaction to being moved from short to third a couple of years ago, I doubt the Rangers are interested in an encore temper-tantrum by Young.

One thing I haven't previously mentioned regarding Beltre's free agency is his Type A designation.  If Beltre ends up signing with the Rangers, the Red Sox would receive the Rangers first round pick plus a "sandwich pick" between the first and second rounds.  If he signed with either the Angels or Athletics, the Red Sox wouldn't receive their first round picks as compensation because their first round picks are protected.  Instead, they'd receive a second round pick, plus the sandwich pick as compensation.  Obviously, for purely selfish reasons, the Red Sox are quietly routing for the Rangers to sign Beltre. 

The Rangers indicating any level of interest in Beltre is great for Scott Boras.  At the very least, he can use the Rangers as leverage in negotiations with the Angels and Athletics.  Without an official offer on the table, Boras needs all of the leverage he can get at this point.

Brandon Webb Signs with Rangers

UPDATE (12/27/2010 at 11:40 a.m.):  Buster Olney of ESPN reports that Webb's deal is for one year $3M plus incentives that, if reached, could make the total package worth between $8-10M.  This seems like a bit of an overpay to me.  While Webb was one of the best pitchers in the NL for a period of four or five seasons, it still doesn't change the fact he hasn't pitched in two seasons.  Plus, the workouts he's held since last summer could best be described as underwhelming.  Seems like a lot of unnecessary risk to me.


Original Post (12/26/2010 at 4:46 p.m.): According to Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse, 2006 Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb has agreed to contract with the Texas Rangers.  Considering Webb's injury history, it should come as no surprise that the deal will not be finalized until he passes a physical.  Terms of the contract have not been disclosed, but it's expected to be for one year. 

Webb hasn't pitched since Opening Day 2009 when he tore the labrum in his pitching shoulder, so clearly this signing comes with quite a bit of risk.  The amount of risk, of course, depends on the amount of money Webb is being paid.  Considering the fact he hasn't pitched in two seasons, his salary isn't likely to exceed $1-2M.  If that's the case, it looks like a pretty solid deal for the Rangers who are desperately in need of pitching depth.

Prior to his injury, Webb was a consistent 6.0-6.5 WAR pitcher with great control, whiff inducing stuff, and an above average ability to keep the ball in the yard.  Expecting him to recapture that form in 2011 is unrealistic.  If the Rangers can get even 2.0 WAR out of Webb, it will be nothing short of a victory.  Webb will likely use the 2011 season to rediscover his velocity, improve his stamina, and rebuild his value.

In 2008, Webb put up a 22-7 record with 3.30 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 7.27 K/9, 2.82 K/BB, while providing 6.0 WAR in value.

Insight into the Lee Negotiations

And you thought the Cliff Lee posts were done.  How foolish of you…

Earlier today, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram shared some interesting information regarding the negotiations between Cliff Lee and the Rangers:

CEO Chuck Greenberg and general manager Jon Daniels said that the Rangers were at their limit last week when Lee was offered a six-year contract worth $138 million -- some of which was deferred -- and a vesting option for a seventh year that would have paid another $23 million.

Agent Darek Braunecker, though, told the Rangers that Lee would sign with them if they guaranteed seven years.

The Rangers passed, and Lee will sign a five-year, $120 million contact with the Philadelphia Phillies. "In this instance, it was simply a matter of us saying, 'yes,'" Greenberg said. "But it would have been a matter of us saying 'yes' on terms that we weren't comfortable with.

"This was not a matter of Cliff making a decision not to come to Texas. He was willing to remain a Ranger, but it was on terms that we felt went beyond the aggressive parameters within which we were already operating."

A seven-year deal for the Rangers would have been a heck of a ledge to be out on for Texas.

Wow.  I’m not sure how the Rangers were able to resist that kind of temptation, but they did.  Bruanecker told the Ranger front office exactly what it would take to retain Lee, and they chose to stand pat.  While it was probably one of the most difficult decisions they’ll ever make, it was absolutely the right one.  Yes, they lost out on Lee to the Phillies, but guaranteeing the seventh year would’ve crippled the club long-term.  Teams should never go beyond their comfort zone when signing a player.  When teams do go beyond their comfort zone, big mistakes tend to happen.

I think article’s biggest surprise is the Yankees appear to have finished a distant third in this race.  That’s kind of surprising considering how well Cashman handled these negotiations.   When was the last time the Yankees finished third for any free agent they openly coveted?  

Rangers in on Beltre?

With all of the talk about Derek Jeter, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jayson Werth, Adrian Beltre has gotten lost in the shuffle.  Well, now that the Lee negotiations appear close to wrapping up, Beltre seems to be re-entering the spotlight. 

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reports that the Rangers are looking at making a late run for Beltre.  While there's speculation that the Rangers interest is primarily to drive up the price on the Angels, there's been a lot of buzz about the Rangers feverishly trying to trade incumbent third baseman, Michael Young, to the Rockies.  Young is not only due $48M over the next three seasons (his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons), but also will become a 10/5 player early in 2011.*  If the Rangers are going to move Young, they'll need to move him now.  So far, their prospects form trading him aren't looking good.  Multiple sources close to the situation have given the Rangers a 50/50 shot of completing the trade.  If a trade isn't pulled off, Beltre's market would be reduced to the front running Angels and possibly the A's and Rockies. 

* For those whom are unfamiliar with the term "10/5 player," allow me to explain.  If a player accumulates ten years of MLB service time AND five years of service time with their current team, said player reserves the right to reject any trade in which they're involved. 

One last note.  If the Rangers were to pull off signing Beltre, it would be a huge body blow to the Angels.  The Angels came into the offseason with money to burn.  If they were to come up short on Crawford, Lee, and Beltre, Tony Reaggins (Angels GM) days in Anaheim could be numbered.