Gonzalez Cleared to Swing the Bat

In case anybody missed this earlier today.

Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports that Adrian Gonzalez has been cleared to start swinging the bat.  According to the report, Gonzalez was examined by team medical director, Dr. Tom Ginn on Friday, and was reported to have "full range of motion, no tenderness, and excellent strength" in the surgically repaired shoulder.  After a discussion with Dr. Altchek, the man who performed surgery on his torn labrum this past fall, the two sides agreed that Gonzalez was ready to take the next step in his rehab.

Earlier this morning, Gonzalez took that next step by taking 20 swings off of a tee, and apparently he did not hold back.

"I didn't hold back," said Gonzalez. "I took good healthy swings and I felt fine. You're waiting to see if you feel something different, and I didn't, so it was a good sign."

Over the next three days, Gonzalez will continue to take swings off of the tee.  If all goes well, there's a chance the training staff could clear him to start taking live batting practice by early next week.  While there's no word as to when Gonzalez will make an appearance during the Grapefruit League schedule, he is expected to be 100% ready to contribute by Opening Day on April 1st.

Clearly, this is great news for both the team and Red Sox fans.  Gonzalez is considered by most to be the acquisition that tipped the balance of power in the AL East away from the Yankees.  In 2010, Gonzalez put together an All-Star caliber season posting a .378 wOBA with 5.3 WAR and Fielding Bible Award quality defense, while with the Padres.  Many figure his numbers to improve this season after moving from the pitching friendly environment of Petco Park to Fenway Park, a park known to heavily advantage hitters.

Youkilis on Changing Positions

Yesterday, Steve Silva of the Boston Globe caught up with Kevin Youkilis, and had a chance to ask him about moving from first base to third base.  Here's what Youk had to say.

"I enjoy third base because I've been there my whole career," he said. "It's a little bit more of a challenge. I like the challenge ... of trying to get better at a position that I need to get better at and it's going to be a spring training of challenging myself and challenging myself and throughout the year challenging myself to be a better third baseman than I am the day before."

Rather than being bitter about being forced to change positions, Youkilis is positive.  He's not complaining to the media about the Red Sox jerking him around.  Instead, he's looking forward to the challenge of playing third base again full time.  That's refreshing.  Michael Young would be wise to follow his lead.

Dancing Around the A-Gon Contract Situation

As many of you probably remember, soon after the Red Sox finalized the Adrian Gonzalez trade with the Padres, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the two sides had secretly come to terms on a seven year contract extension worth $154M.  According to sources, both parties agreed to wait until after Opening Day to announce the deal in order to avoid paying the competitive balance tax.  While the report was vehemently disputed by both Adrian Gonzalez and key members of Red Sox leadership, the rumors persisted.

This past Tuesday, deep within column on Albert Pujols trade possibilities, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports mentioned that a few sources had confirmed Nightengale’s original report.  The only difference was the amount of money involved in the deal.

“Then there are the Red Sox. Sources say they are set to sign Gonzalez to a seven-year, $164 million extension, but will wait until after Opening Day to announce the deal, enabling them to save on the luxury tax.”

Not surprisingly, Theo Epstein denied the rumors that the Red Sox were “set to sign” Gonzalez to a contract.  While he didn’t specifically address Rosenthal’s report, he did indicate there was “mutual good faith” between the two parties that would hopefully allow for smooth negotiations.  With Adrian Gonzalez having already reported to Spring Training, there’s a good chance negotiations will ramp up the in next couple of weeks potentially leading to an agreement.

To read more of my thoughts on Adrian Gonzalez’s value, check out my latest article (posted Friday at 8:00 a.m.) for Fire Brand of the American League.

Shock of the Century: Drew Still Hurt

Grrrr...I know I should have seen this coming, but still...

J.D. Drew, RF, Red Sox — He had some lingering hamstring issues this offseason and may be slowed up a tad to start spring training. The Sox have Ryan Kalish ready to go as Drew’s eventual replacement in right field, as this is the last season of Drew’s five-year, $72 million contract.

I'd like to point out that pitchers and catchers aren't due to report to Spring Training until the end of the week, and already Drew's hurt.  I really don't want to put the anti-Drew vultures into motion, but this kind of news is really annoying.  While he's a tremendous ball player, it never ceases to amaze me that he's always hurt.  The man is a walking infirmary.  It's a good thing the Red Sox have capable outfielders like Mike Cameron and Ryan Kalish ready to step in should he hit the DL with a hang nail injury. 

All joking aside, I love J.D.  I'm one of his biggest fans.  He's so underrated and misunderstood.  Sadly, it's mostly because baseball fans don't understand that getting on base is the most important aspect of run creation.  This isn't a concept that's up for debate.  It's a mathematically proven fact.  Driving in a run (via the RBI) is not a skill.  It's a function of opportunity and luck.  In fact, an RBI can result from a failed plate appearance in which the batter records an out.  (An out, I might add, is the only finite commodity in the game, and is often considered baseball's clock.)  But no, let's congratulate Mr. RBI man.  You failed to meet your primary objectives (get on base and improve your team's run probability), but let's congratulate you anyway, while we ignore the player that was actually successful in his plate appearance. 

Alright, enough with my ranting.  It just irritates me.  We've been watching Drew play for 12-plus seasons, and most don't realize what a great player we've been watching all along.  It's really unfortunate.

One last thing.  Not to nitpick Carfardo who is a tremendous beat writer, but Drew is in the last season of a five year $70M contract, not $72M.  (Per Cot's Baseball Contracts.)

Should the Red Sox Sit Ortiz Against Lefties?

In Peter Abraham's latest post for Extra Bases at the Boston Globe, he took a look at whether the Red Sox should play or sit Ortiz against left-handed pitching in 2011.

When the Sox picked up their option on Ortiz a few months ago, Theo Epstein addressed the struggles against lefties and the idea that Ortiz shouldn't react badly (as was the case last season) if he's out of the lineup against certain pitchers.

“That’s something we wanted to make sure everybody’s on the same page about as we head into next year, that there’s comfort in the contract, comfort with the role, comfort with the manager,” Epstein said. “Certainly Tito and David are absolutely on the same page, on great terms, and it shouldn’t be an issue going into next year.”

Francona spoke about the issue last night before the Town Hall.

“For David to be successful — and I see his numbers against lefties, believe me, I do — you can’t just sit him because I don’t know if he’d have as much success against righties. I know we believe that,” Francona said. “I think there are times where it’ll do him good to maybe give him a break against somebody he struggles with. That wasn’t necessarily the case (last) April. He was struggling against everybody and we were struggling to win.”

I'm not sure what all of the fuss is about.  Anyone with a pair of eyes or access to the internet could tell you that Ortiz has struggled against left-handed pitching over the past few seasons.  Last season, it got so bad that the Red Sox finally made the decision to do what was once unthinkable--sit Big Papi against certain tough lefties.  How bad did it get?  Just for fun, let's take a look at some of Ortiz's key indicators against LHP and RHP over the past three seasons. 

                            PA     wOBA   wRAA     BB     K      LD%     GB%      FB%      
2008 v LHP        121       .321      -0.7         14     19     17.2       36.8       46.0
2008 v RHP        370       .388      18.3        56     55     19.4       36.4       44.2

2009 v LHP        188      .310       -2.9         19    44      10.6       43.9       45.4
2009 v RHP        439      .356        9.9         55    90      20.3       27.1       52.6

2010 v LHP        200      .268       -8.5         13    57      18.0       46.1       35.9
2010 v RHP        406      .439       38.4        69    88      17.0       33.6       49.4


Right off of the bat, two things pop out at me.  One, while Ortiz's ability to control the strike zone has regressed overall, it's much more pronounced against lefties than it is against righties.  In 2008, the first year of Ortiz's struggles, he produced an acceptable 14/19 BB/K ratio in 121 plate appearances against lefties.  Last season, his plate discipline against lefties all but disappeared as he posted an abysmal 13/57 BB/K ratio in 200 plate appearances. 

So what happened to Ortiz's plate discipline?  In all likelihood, a combination of age related regression and slowing bat speed are the primary culprits.  Typically, a left-handed hitter facing a right-handed pitcher will pick up the ball coming out of his hand a little more quickly than when he's facing a pitcher of the same handedness.  This gives the hitter a little more time to not only recognize the pitch, but also decide whether not he should swing.  Against a left-handed pitcher, that hitter picks up the ball a fraction of a second later and therefore, has less time with which to make the same decision.  When it comes to younger hitters, the platoon splits aren't as dramatic because the player's bat speed and natural abilities are able to compensate.  With an older player like Ortiz, his slowed bat speed keeps him from making the necessary adjustments.  So what does he do?  He cheats by starting his swing a little earlier.  In most cases, this leads not only to higher contact rates with pitches out of the zone (O-Swing and O-Contact), but also higher strikeout and lower walk rates.  Not surprisingly, this is exactly what's happening with Ortiz.

Secondly, over the past few years, Ortiz has shown a greater tendency to hit ground balls against left-handed pitching than against right-handed pitching.  As a result, his fly ball rate has dropped accordingly.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or at least, it shouldn't) to figure out that it's really difficult to hit a home run when you're constantly hitting the ball on the ground.  In fact, it's impossible unless you happen to hit an inside the park job.  With Ortiz's speed, that ain't happening any time soon.

So why is Ortiz hitting more grounders against lefties?  Well, it's pretty much the same reason that his BB/K ratio against lefties is so bad:  he's cheating.  When he does swing, he gets so far out in front of the ball, he pulls it to the right side of the field.  Once pitchers and pitching coaches noticed this tendency, they started to exploit his weakness by throwing him a steady diet of low and away fastballs in hopes of inducing more weak ground balls to the right side.*  When he's facing right-handed pitching, the effect is mostly lost because he's afforded the extra fraction of a second in which he can not only recognize, but also decide to lay off of the pitch.  Against lefties though, he can't lay off, and plays right into their game plan.

*  Another tactic managers started using as a result of Ortiz's struggles is the "Williams Shift."  This shift puts a third infielder on the right side of the field with the third baseman shifting over to the shortstop position.  By throwing pitches that are more likely to induce weak ground balls, opposing teams are able to not only create more outs, but also minimize the impact of David Ortiz's presence in the lineup.

To me, it's a cut and dry case.  Ortiz should be benched against lefties.  If this was based on a single year's sample, I could toss the numbers out as a possible aberration, but it's not.  This is three years worth of data showing that not only does Ortiz struggles against lefties, but he's actually getting worse.  And not just a little worse, but a lot worse.  While I understand that Terry Francona feels uncomfortable with telling Ortiz that he's being relegated to a platoon situation, it's his job to make those uncomfortable decisions.  Honestly, if we were talking about any other player (for example, J.D. Drew), we wouldn't even be having this discussion. 

The problem is that David Ortiz has not only been one of the most important and well respected players within the organization for eight seasons, but also provided a number of memorable clutch moments.  In a way, Ortiz has become an institution in Boston.  The Red Sox have gone out of their way to not rock the boat when it comes to Ortiz.  (Hence, picking up his $12.5M option for 2011 when he likely would've gotten $5-7 on the free agent market.)  Unfortunately, this line of thinking isn't helping the team; it's hurting them.  Francona and the front office need to make a united decision based on the cold hard fact that Ortiz can't hit lefties anymore.  This shouldn't be seen as an insult to Big Papi, but as recognition that he's not the same player he was between 2003-2007.  Ortiz can still be an effective player on the Boston Red Sox--just not against lefties.

Lester Looking Ahead to World Series

As some of you may’ve heard, the Red Sox made some big moves this offseason.  They started out by trading for power hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and then followed it up by signing Carl Crawford, Bobby Jenks, and Dan Wheeler to free agent contracts.  When you factor in the return of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron, all of whom missed significant time due to injuries in 2010, it’s easy to understand why people in Red Sox Nation are pretty excited about the prospects of this year’s team.  

Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe had a chance to talk with ace starting pitcher Jon Lester at a promotional event for People’s United Bank the other day.  Apparently, Lester is already preparing to pitch deep into the postseason.    

“Mentally and physically, I’m preparing for the World Series,’’ he said. “I’m doing extra right now to make sure my body holds up for late October. You look at the kind of team we have and I don’t see why can’t get there.’’

As a Red Sox fan I love both his enthusiasm, and his desire to prepare his body for additional wear and tear in October.  While his goal of pitching in October should be at the forefront of his (and every player’s) thoughts, I can’t help but wonder if he’s being a little presumptive.  It is only January after all.  Still, I love his confidence.  If the rest of his teammates are as motivated as Lester, the Red Sox could be in for one heck of a season. 

Still, as fans, we shouldn’t get too cocky just yet.  Championships aren’t won on paper in January.  Instead, they’re one on the field in October.  The Red Sox’s impressive offseason won’t mean jack, if they can’t put it together between April and October. Plenty of unexpected things could happen over the next nine months that could derail their season.  It’s important to keep that in the back of your mind.

In 2010, Lester made his first All-Star appearance and finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting.  He went 19-9 with a 3.18 FIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, and 5.3 fWAR.

Papelbon Still on the Block

Well, this is an interesting story line.  According to Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are still very open to trading All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon.

7. Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, Red Sox — Jon Heyman of SI.com reported that the Sox considered dealing him to the White Sox or Oakland, but the $12 million salary nixed things. But a Red Sox source said this: Papelbon won’t be off-limits in spring training or during the season, no matter where the Sox are in the standings and whether Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks is ready to take the closer job.

This really shouldn't be considered a surprise considering the ridiculous one year $12M contract Papelbon signed last week.  It wasn't all that long ago that he was one of the top two or three closers in the game.  Now?  Not so much.  After struggling with mechanics, inconsistent command, poor pitch selection, and an inability to avoid walks, Papelbon has stumbled into a second (or maybe even third) tier closer.  Second and third tier closers are nice, but they're not worth the salary he's going to be making in 2011.   

Trading Papelbon will prove to be extremely difficult for the Red Sox.  If they expect to get anything in return for the struggling closer, they're going to have to be willing to eat a sizable portion of the money he's owed.

In 2010, Papelbon went 5-7 with 37 saves in 45 chances, 3.51 FIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, and 1.2 WAR.

Red Sox, Buchholz Not in Extension Talks

According to Rod Bradford of WEEI.com, Clay Buchholz has not been approached by the Red Sox regarding a contract extension.

“I haven’t spoken money with anybody,” said the 26-year-old Buchholz. “It’s been basically go out and play until somebody approaches me about it. That’s sort of how I’m looking at it.”

Before Red Sox fans get all up and arms about this, we need to keep in mind that Buchholz is entering his final "reserve clause" season.  The Red Sox have the right to set his salary at any rate they choose, and Buchholz would have no recourse.  In all honestly, they'd be stupid to try and sign him to an extension right now.  Their smartest option is to start negotiating after the 2011 season, and try to get him locked up before arbitration figures are exchanged in mid-January.

Additionally, while Buchholz is coming off of a season in which he produced a 17-7 record with a 2.33 ERA, it's important to note that his peripherals did not match his performance.  While Buchholz had a healthy whiff rate, his 6.22 K/9 rate was well below average.  His 3.47 BB/9 rate put him in the bottom quartile of qualified major league pitchers.  Those two indicators, combined with a lucky BABIP (in comparison to his xBABIP) and HR/FB ratio (in comparison to his career rates and league norms) imply that Buchholz's talent level is probably closer to the 3.61 FIP he produced last season rather than the 2.33 ERA.  Purely from a performance standpoint, it would behoove the Red Sox to wait on making a deal because it's possible Buchholz will see some performance regression in 2011.

Can Beckett Bounce Back?

In an article released earlier today by Jon Tomase of the Boston Herald, he discussed Josh Beckett’s chances of returning to form.  If you’re a Red Sox fan, you’re probably not going to like his conclusion.

“Virtually every pitcher to struggle like Beckett did last season not only was never the same, but almost to a man failed to produce a single, solitary above-average season thereafter.

The results are actually kind of staggering. And while they have no bearing on whether Beckett will bounce back in 2011, they should at least give Red Sox fans pause following last year’s 6-6, 5.78 ERA disaster that can only partially be chalked up to injuries.

So what are we talking about? Thanks to the magic of baseball-reference.com, it was easy to sort for pitchers in their 30s who posted ERAs above 5.75 while pitching at least 125 innings.”

I don’t want to be too critical of Tomase because he actually did some statistical research, and posed a compelling argument.  If you dig below the surface of his argument, you find that it's flawed and full of empty calories.   First of all, the thresholds he chose for age, ERA, and innings pitched (pitcher of at least 30 with an ERA above 5.75 with at least 125 innings pitched) seem rather arbitrary; perhaps even convenient.  Maybe that’s because they are.  I don't think it's a coincidence that Beckett just happened to be a 30 year old pitcher who put up a 5.78 ERA in 128 innings last season.  What would happen if we changed the criteria to pitchers who are at least 29 years old and produce 5.50 ERA in at least 100 innings pitched?  Would there be more successful turnarounds?  We don’t know.  He doesn’t answer that question for us.  Tomase purposely chose those thresholds to help him prove his hypothesis.  It’s the oldest stat trick in the book.  Jack Morris supporters have been doing this for years.*

*  Jack Morris supporters often tout that he was the “Winningest pitcher of the 1980s.”  While this is true, what they don’t tell you is that the great pitchers of the 1970s (Seaver, Carlton, and Palmer) were done being productive by 1985, while the great pitchers of the 1990s (Maddux, Clemens, and Johnson) were just getting their started in the middle of the decade.  Morris was lucky in that his prime just happened to coincide during a lull between two great crops of pitchers.  The 1980-1989 time period that was chosen was purely arbitrary.  Why didn’t they choose the 1977-1986 or 1985-1994 decades? Two reasons.  One, it doesn’t have a catchy nickname like the “eighties”.  Two, those decades, while just as viable as the 1980-1989 decade, don’t help Morris’s case.  Therefore, his supporters don’t bring it up.  They’re manipulating the statistics to promote their agenda, while ignoring the statistics that do not.   

My second issue with Tomase’s analysis is with the three pitchers he identifies as comparables:  Jack Morris, David Cone, and Dave Stewart.  Let’s take a quick look at how the four pitchers fared during the seasons in question.

                             Age      IP       ERA       FIP       K/9        K/BB   fWAR
Josh Beckett          30     128       5.78       4.54      8.18        2.58       1.4
Dave Stewart        37     133       5.87       5.49      7.49        1.79        1.0
Jack Morris           38     153       6.19       4.51      6.07        1.58        1.8
David Cone           37     155       6.91       5.44      6.97        1.46        1.1   

The first thing that pops out at me is the difference in age between Beckett and his three comparables.  Morris, Cone, and Stewart were all in their late-30s during the twilight of their careers at the time they produced their “disaster” seasons.  It’s shouldn’t be a surprise they “failed to produce a single, solitary above-average season thereafter.”  Beckett, on the other hand, had just turned 30, entered the season as a pitcher in his prime, and was coming off of a 5 WAR season.  Injuries and bad fortune played a significant role in his performance.  Considering his age and true talent level, it would appear that Beckett is much more likely to bounce back than the three above named pitchers.    

The second thing I see is that Beckett had far better strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates during his “disaster” season than his counterparts.  For those of you whom are unaware, strikeouts, walks, and the ability to induce ground balls are three of the most accurate indicators for predicting future pitching performance.  While Beckett’s walk rate was higher than it had been in recent years, it was still slightly better than the league average.  Beckett’s strikeout and whiff rates remained above average and within his statistical norms.  His ground ball rate came in at 45.8%, which is actually above his career norm of 44.7%.  In theory, if he were to repeat his peripheral rates in 2011, he will likely have a much better ERA.

So why did Beckett struggle last season?  Two simple reasons.  The first reason is that Beckett appeared to be incredibly unlucky with regards to home runs allowed.  In 2010, he allowed 20 home runs on 141 fly balls for an HR/FB rate of 14.2%.  While HR/FB rates aren't very predictive, most major league pitchers typically produce a rate between 9-11.5% depending on their home ball park.  If we were to regress Beckett's HR/FB ratio to the league norm of 10.5%, Beckett should have only been expected to give up 15 home runs, not 20.  This poor luck on fly balls, probably added between 8-12 runs to his year end total. 

The second reason for Beckett's struggles was due to extraordinary poor luck on balls in play.  In 2010, he had an obscenely high .349 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite allowing line drives only 19% of the time.*  Based on his batted ball statistics, Beckett was expected to give up 120 hits (versus 151 actual) for an expected BABIP (xBABIP) of .296.  31 hits is a huge variance.  As most of you can imagine, these unexpected additional hits are a huge reason why Beckett's ERA ballooned last season.

* The batting average on line drives in play is approximately .720.  The batting average on ground balls is .240.  The batting average on fly balls in play is around .150. 

What caused this variance?  Well, as I mentioned above, luck probably played a significant role, but that wasn't the only culprit.  Poor defense was also a major factor.  The Red Sox were plagued by injuries last season, and most of their best defensive players spent significant portions of the season on the disabled list.  As most of you know, when a team replaces a starting position player with someone from either the bench or the minor leagues, the replacement player tends to be of lower quality on both sides of the ball.  As the FIP/luck dragon video I posted the other day demonstrated, ERA is largely dependent on the quality of fielders behind the pitcher.  As the quality of fielders decreases, the likelihood for additional unexpected hits increases.   This, in turn, results in higher ERAs. 

Judging by Beckett's 4.01 xFIP (which is FIP with an HR/FB rate adjusted for league norms), it appears that he was a much more effective pitcher than his ERA would lead us to believe.  While his injuries certainly didn't help his cause last year, his 5.78 ERA was largely brought upon by poor luck and bad defense.  If Beckett were to repeat his 2010 strikeout, walk, ground ball, home run, and batted ball numbers in 2011, it's very likely that his ERA will bounce back to rate more inline with his 2010 xFIP than his 2010 ERA.  Based on my analysis, Beckett looks like a pretty good bet to return to form in 2011.

Sox Surprised Crawford with Offer

According to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald, Carl Crawford was taken back by Boston’s seven year $142M contract offer last month.  

“Man, to be honest with you,” Crawford said, “if everything was the same, I think I’d rather go to Boston.”

(snip)

Then, Peters shared details of the Red Sox’ seven-year, $142 million offer, which already had gotten intercontinental approval from owners John W. Henry and Tom Werner, who were tending to their new English Premier League team.

“He told me the dollar amount,” Crawford said, “and I almost got into a wreck on the freeway.”

I don’t know about you, but it’s rare that I’m so surprised by news that it nearly causes me to drive into another vehicle at 70 MPH.  Based on his statements, he sounded like he was pretty surprised…maybe even shocked by the offer. It sounds to me like the Red Sox might have been able to pick up Crawford for cheaper.  So by how much cheaper could the Red Sox have gotten Crawford?  That’s a complicated question. 

When the Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a seven year $126M contract with a (groan) full no trade clause that set the market for Crawford’s services.  Crawford is both younger and more talented than Werth, so it only makes sense to start with Werth’s contract parameters and go from there.  While I’m slightly bothered by the fact that the only confirmed competing offer was by the Angels for six years and $108M, that was a gross underbid.  They didn’t have a prayer of getting Crawford to agree that deal, so assuming that Boston overbid based on the Angels offer alone would be foolish.

It might’ve behooved the Red Sox to try a lower bid (perhaps by matching the Jayson Werth contract to start) to see what happened.  It is possible Crawford would’ve jumped at the bid, which would’ve allowed them to save $16M over the next seven years.  Still, that seems a little far fetched, doesn’t it?  I have to imagine his agent would’ve informed him of his value in the wake of the Werth signing, and convinced him to hold out for more money.  In the end, he probably still ends up signing for the same seven year contract at $142M. 

Cameron Willing to Accept Reduced Role

Last offseason, the Boston Red Sox signed outfielder Mike Cameron to a two year $15M contract to play center field.  The move was controversial and widely panned by most fans and media types because it forced the Red Sox to move the popular Jacoby Ellsbury from center to left field.  Cameron struggled to stay healthy after suffering from appendicitis and a torn abdominal muscle, both which required surgery.  Those injuries limited him to only playing 48 games while producing a .259/.328/.401 triple slash line.  Obviously, this didn't help the perception that the Red Sox had made a mistake in signing him to be one of their starting outfielders. 

When the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford to play left field, Cameron looked like the odd man out with Drew and Ellsbury taking the remaining two starting outfield jobs.  Cameron could've tried to force a trade, but now it looks like he's willing to accept a role as the team's fourth outfielder.

Mike Cameron had a pair of noteworthy phone conversations around the time the Red Sox signed free agent Carl Crawford to his landmark seven-year, $142 million deal.

The first was initiated by Red Sox GM Theo Epstein to inform Cameron of the acquisition shortly before the deal became public. Epstein wanted to be the first to let Cameron know of a deal that – at least on paper – was likely to consign the veteran to the role of a fourth outfielder for the 2011 Sox.

The second call was made by Cameron himself. That call was to Crawford, to welcome the Sox newcomer to Boston.

Say what you will about Cameron, but talk about a class act.  He could have whined, complained, kicked, and screamed in hopes of forcing the Red Sox to trade him to a team willing to give him 500-600 plate appearances next season.  Instead, he's accepted a reduced role in hopes of winning the championship ring that's eluded him throughout his (underrated) 16 year career.  Not many players would do that--especially ones with as much left in the tank as Cameron.

Eleven Teams Interested in Fuentes

According to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated via Twitter, there are eleven teams interested in signing left-handed relief pitcher Brian Fuentes.

while #redsox like fuentes, they have company. others w/some interest: tor, tb, colo, sea, minn, pitt, phil, milw, nyy & nym

Fuentes, a former closer for the Rockies and Angels, is reportedly looking for a three contract similar to the ones Joaquin Benoit and Scott Downs signed earlier in the offseason.  At this point in the offseason, a three year contract for that kind of money might be a tall order as most teams have spent the bulk of their money and are looking for bargains.

Last season, Fuentes pitched pretty well splitting time between the Angels and Twins going 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA (3.85 FIP) and a 47/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 48 innings.  While Fuentes could close for roughly 6-8 teams, most of the teams Heyman named as interested parties would likely use him in a role other than closer.  For example, the Red Sox would likely use him as a lefty-specialist with Papelbon, Bard, and Jenks already eating up the bulk of the high leverage innings.  The Yankees, Phillies, Rockies, and Brewers would use probably use him as their primary left-handed set-up man.  For the Twins and Mets, he'd serve not only as their primary set-up man, but also a reliable fall back option should their established closers need extra time recovering from their maladies (for Nathan it's physical, for K-Rod it's mental).  Only the Blue Jays, Pirates, Rays, and Mariners have potential closer openings.  Of those teams, Blue Jays currently have viable options in Dotel and Frasor already in the mix.  The other three teams are both low revenue clubs, and are unlikely to open their wallets wide enough to offer a three year deal worth $15-18M.

It looks like the player's market that was in full effect just a couple of weeks ago has shifted to more of a team friendly market.  Adrian Beltre, Carl Pavano, Rafael Soriano, and Grant Balfour are among the players, in addition to Fuentes, who haven't been able to convince teams to meet their contract demands.  If Fuentes can't convince a team to meet his demands, it's probably the smartest move for him to sign a one year deal with a team interested in giving him the closer role, even if it means less money.  This would give him an opportunity to rebuild his value for when he hits the market again after 2011.

Greatest Red Sox Pitching Performances of the Last 25 Years

I really don't want this blog to revolve around the Red Sox, so these types of posts will be rare.  I got this idea after reading someone else's post on a bulletin board I frequent.  I'm adapting his idea slightly by focusing on the last 25 years, rather than the last 50 years.  I made this decision due to the great number of tremendous pitching performances the Red Sox (and their fans) have experienced in the quarter of a century.  The initiator of the bulletin board post is a regular reader of this blog, so I want to give him credit for coming up with such a great idea.  (I'd give him props for coming up with the idea even if he didn't read the blog as well.)  Without further adieu, here are the top ten greatest Red Sox pitching performances of the last 25 years.

10.  Pedro Martinez 1998 - This was Pedro's inaugural season in Boston, and he didn't disappoint.  He went 19-7 with a 2.89 ERA (3.40 FIP), 9.67 K/9, 3.75 K/BB, and 6.7 WAR in 233.2 innings.  He came in second place in the Cy Young Award voting to Roger Clemens who achieved the pitching version of the triple crown for the second consecutive year. 

9.  Roger Clemens 1988 - Clemens was terribly underrated in 1988, which was largely due to the number of losses (12) he accumulated.  Clemens put up his best strikeout season at the time, which would only be bested in 1997 when he was with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Clemens finished the season 18-12 with 2.93 ERA (2.17 FIP), 9.92 K/9, 4.69 K/BB, and 10.0 WAR in 264 innings.  Criminally, Clemens finished sixth in the Cy Young balloting behind pitchers who were far inferior, including winner Frank Voila and eventual winner (1992) Dennis Eckersley.  Clemens led the league in complete games, shutouts, strikeouts, K/9, K/BB, and WAR. 

8.  Roger Clemens 1987 - 1987 was somewhat of a lost season for the Red Sox, but Clemens kept them afloat.  During this season, he won his second consecutive Cy Young Award on the strength of a 20-9 record, 2.97 ERA (2.91 FIP), 8.18 K/9, 3.18 K/BB, and 9.3 WAR in 281.2 innings.  He led the league in wins, complete games, shutouts, K/BB, and WAR.

7.  Josh Beckett 2007 - Josh Beckett willed the team to it's second championship in four seasons through a series of unbelievable shut down performances.  During the regular season, he was pretty great too.  He finished second in the CYA voting (and rightly so), and finished with a 20-7 record, 3.27 ERA (3.08 FIP), 8.70 K/9, 4.85 K/BB, and 6.5 WAR in 200.2 innings.  Beckett led the league in wins.

6.  Pedro Martinez 2002 - Pedro's 2002 season looks almost pedestrian when compared to his 1999 and 2000 seasons.  Still, despite some stiff competition from teammate Derek Lowe (who just missed making this list), Pedro recaptured his spot as the best pitcher in the major leagues.  He went 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA (2.24 FIP), 10.79 K/9, 5.98 K/BB, and 8.3 WAR in 199.1 innings.  Pedro finished second behind Oakland's Barry Zito in the Cy Young Award voting despite having better statistics in every category but Wins.  Pedro led the league in ERA, ERA+ , FIP, winning percentage, strikeouts, K/9, K/BB, WHIP, and WAR. 

5.  Curt Schilling 2004 - What didn't Curt Schilling do in this year.  He not only carried the Red Sox to the playoffs, but carried them on a wounded ankle through the postseason to their first World Series championship in 86 years.  His contributions to the team can not be understated.  He finished second in the Cy Young Award voting (and rightly so) going 21-6 with a 3.26 ERA (3.11 FIP), 8.06 K/9, 5.80 K/BB, and 7.3 WAR in 226.2 innings.  Schilling led the league in wins, winning percentage, and K/BB.

4.  Roger Clemens 1986 - Only number four?  Yeah, but that's only because Clemens 1990 season and two transcendent Pedro seasons beat it out.  Clemens started out 14-0 as he steamrolled his way to the Cy Young Award, MVP, and a near World Series championship.  While a lot of people will never forgive him for supposedly asking to come out of the Game 6 (never confirmed to be true), the truth is that the Red Sox never would've made the playoffs, let alone the Series without him.  He finished up the season with a 24-4 record, 2.48 ERA (2.81 FIP), 8.43 K/9, 3.55 K/BB, and 8.0 WAR in 254 innings.  He led the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA, ERA+, FIP, and WHIP.

3.  Roger Clemens 1990 - This is often the forgotten season for Clemens, and it's a shame because it was his best in Boston.  I can't think of any logical reason why he didn't win the Cy Young Award this year.  Voters were blinded by Bob Welch's eye popping 27 win total.  Unfortunately, those wins were pretty hollow as they were propped up by run support and a fantastic bullpen.  Clemens on the other hand went 21-6 with a 1.93 ERA (2.18 FIP), 8.24 K/9, 3.87 K/BB, and 8.7 WAR in 228.1 innings.  Also, he led the league in ERA, ERA+, FIP, shutouts, K/BB, and WAR.  Not bad for someone who finished second in the CYA voting.  The winner?  Oh, he led the league in wins...and that's it.

2.  Pedro Martinez 2000 - I originally had this at number one, but decided to move it down to number two.  Really, it could go either way.  Pedro's 2000 season could best be described as transcendent, and is one of the four or five greatest pitching seasons of all time.  Many might point to Sandy Koufax's run from 1963-1966 as being more dominant, but he didn't pitched an environment that heavily favored pitchers.  Pedro's dominance (1997-2003) occurred at the height of the greatest offensive era in baseball history.  Pedro won his third Cy Young in four seasons going 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA (2.17 FIP), 11.78 K/9, 8.88 K/BB, and 10.1 WAR in 217 innings.  He led the league in ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, strikeouts, K/9, K/BB, WAR, and shutouts.

1. Pedro Martinez 1999 - See above.  In this case, he was even more dominant.  This is far more dominant than any season I've ever witnessed, and it's certainly more than anything done since World War 2.  Just as an example of how dominant Pedro was, he registered double digit strikeouts in 19 of his 29 starts.  He also had nine strikeouts in three of his starts.  His final stats were 23-4 with a 2.07 ERA (1.39 FIP!!!), 13.20 K/9, 8.46 K/BB, and an astounding 12.1 WAR in 213.1 innings.  He led the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, strikeouts, K/9, K/BB, and WAR.  He finished second in the MVP balloting because two sports writers (George King and LaVelle Neal) left him off of their ballot entirely because they felt a pitcher should never win the MVP award.  King's no vote was incredibly hypocritical (and controversial) because he'd voted for Rick Helling and David Wells just one season before.

A-Gon Makes Quite the Promise

ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes reports that there were some interesting outcomes from the 24-hour negotiating window between Boston and newly acquired All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. 

During the exclusive 24-hour negotiating window, the Red Sox and Gonzalez built a basic framework for a long term extension.  While Gonzalez passed his physical, the Red Sox still had concerns regarding Gonzalez's surgically repaired shoulder.  Due the labrum surgery he had only seven weeks prior, Gonzalez not able to swing a bat before March 1st at the earliest.  The Red Sox, having just traded four prospects to the Padres in exchange for A-Gon, wanted to make sure he was still the same player post-surgery as he was pre-surgery.  Rather than take an unnecessary financial risk, the front office decided it was best to hold off on finalizing a contract until he could prove he was fully healthy.

Additionally, the Red Sox wanted protection against the potential market place changes that could occur over the next couple of months should Albert Pujols agree to a new contract with Cardinals.  If Pujols managed to pull down $30M per season, the last thing the Red Sox wanted was for Gonzalez to inform the club that the price for his services had just gone up.  That would be a huge blow to the Red Sox considering they would've essentially given up four promising young players for what would amount to be a one year rental.  Gonzalez, being the stand up guy he is, had a solution:

“That was one of their comments, what if he gets this humongous deal and you want to be closer to him?” Gonzalez said. “I said, ‘Trust me. What the market is today might change by then, but we’re going to negotiate based on what the market is today.”’

This is a refreshing move by Gonzalez.  How many other players can you invision making similar concessions?  My guess is not many.  This is a unique situation.

So what does this gesture say on the part of Gonzalez?  On one hand, it shows his commitment and desire to play for the Red Sox.  On the other, I can't help but wonder if he's being a bit foolish.  There is plenty of money to be made on the free agent market in 2011-2012, especially if Pujols were to sign a monster deal prior the start of the offseason. 

Either way, I'm glad he's on the Red Sox.  He seems to get it.  While he's still focused on making sure he gets paid, he wants to do it in a manner that benefits both parties.  That's a rarity in today's sporting environment.

The Dreaded Vote of Confidence

Earlier today, Ian Browne tweeted some interesting information from Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein.  He stated that despite his recent signing of former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks and the continued presence of fireballing set-up man Daniel Bard, there is not a closer controversy in Boston.  Jonathan Papelbon is still the closer.  That is, of course, until blows back-to-back save opportunities...or gives up a three run lead against the Yankees...or gets traded.

All joking aside, this seems like the dreaded vote of confidence.  Do you know what I mean?  It's the same one owners or General Managers give just before someone gets the ax a week later. 

Unlike a lot of people, I don't think his struggles have anything to do with his so-called meltdown in Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS.  Papelbon is not what I would call a thinker--and I mean that in the nicest possible way.  He doesn't stew on his errors.  His ability to forget his failures is what has allowed him to be one of the most successful closers in baseball over the past five seasons.  To say that a single failure is the reason for his decline is too simplistic, not to mention inaccurate.

Papelbon's issues have to do with his "stuff."   I've often wondered if his struggles stem from the Red Sox experimenting with his mechanics early in the 2009 season.  Since the start of 2009, he's had trouble avoiding walks (especially in April when his K/BB ratio is significantly worse than the rest of the season), and consistently being able to locate his fastball and splitter over the course of the season.  As a result, he's allowed more baserunners, given up more runs, and blown more saves than he had in the past.  Of course, I don't need to tell you that each of these things can spell death for a closer.  

I still believe Papelbon can be an effective major league closer.  In fact, I still think he can be an effective, if not dominant, closer in Boston.  In order to regain his dominance, he needs to find a way to reverse this disturbing two year trend.  He needs to regain his plus-control, and be able to establish his rising fastball and diving splitter as the consistent plus-pitches they were just a few short years ago. 

Unfortunately, time may not be on his side.  Papelbon is about to enter his age-30 season.  Closer don't typically improve once they hit 30; they tend to decline.  I think Papelbon will be given every opportunity to hold down the role he's owned for five years.  If he can't, I fully expect Francona to remove him from the role (just as he replaced Keith Foulke with Papelbon in 2006), and install either Bard or Jenks in the role.  In a way, it would be poetic justice.