Jeter to Centerfield? Cashman says...maybe.

Yankee centerfielders. You know their names: DiMaggio, Mantle, Williams, and now....Derek Jeter?

Well if you ask Yankee GM Brian Cashman the idea doesn't sound that far fetched. According to ESPN.com, Cashman told WFAN radio personality John Francesa that should the necessity ever arise for Jeter to move from SS, that centerfield would be an excellent position.

Many question Jeter's ability to play such a physically demanding position for the next four years. Even though he's coming off another Gold Glove season (Jeter has five for his career) anyone who's ever looked at FanGraphs knows Ozzie Smith he ain't. At 36 it's already quite obvious that Jeter's skills and range continue to diminish and it is very doubtful that he'll stay at shortstop for the rest of his career. A move to a less taxing position could also be beneficial to his productivity at the plate as well.

A close analysis of the options demonstrates that center or left field is a decent fit. With A-Rod at third and Texiera at first for the next several years those positions are not options. Second base is possible only if the Yankees don't re-sign Cano to a long term deal, and the chances of that happening are about as likely as me winning Dancing With the Stars. Swisher is locked up in right field for at least another two years and as long as he repeats similar numbers to the '09 and '10 seasons it's likely the Yankees re-sign Swish as well. That leaves Brett Gardner in left and Curtis Granderson in center. In all honesty either one of those positions are possibilities for Jeter although I think it's a little liklier that Jeter would be in left rather than center. It is a somewhat less taxing and Granderson is without question a very good centerfielder defensively so why bump him.

Another option that no one discusses is moving Jeter to DH. This is undoubtedly Posada's last year and it's clear he will be DHing most of the season. Why not move Jeter into that slot once Posada retires? I could see it happening, however the chances aren't great only because Captain Jete is the type of person that wants to contribute in every facet of the game, not just at the plate. Although Jeter is a team guy, I feel he has too much pride to give up a defensive position for just a bat.

The whole thing depends on how bad Jeter becomes defensively, what the Yankees are willing to accept, and what Jeter is willing to do. It's an equation that's not as simple as 2+2=4. The results of moving Jeter to the outfield this late in his career are unknowable. Robin Yount made the transition in the 1980s but it was still in the middle of his career and he won an MVP after the move. That's a once in a generation event that Jeter is not going to imitate. When the day comes for Jeter to make the move to the outfield I just pray it looks more like Ichiro Suzuki moving from right field to center and back, rather than Jose Canseco trying to pitch.

Jeter Speaks Out About Negotiations

Earlier today in Tampa, the Yankees held a press conference to officially announce Derek Jeter's new contract.  I know what you're thinking--the Yankees and Jeter were discussing a new contract?  I was shocked to find out as well.  I have to give both parties credit.  They handled it so quietly and professionally.  Then again, what else do you expect out of the New York Yankees.

What's that you say?  The contract negotiations were a veritable bloodbath?  Thinly veiled insults were hurled at each other via their media counterparts?  And I spent countless hours writing about it?  I'm afraid I don't know...Oh.  Derek Jeter.  I thought you were talking about Derrek Lee.  My bad.

Anyway...

I've read the press conference highlights, and they're pretty boring for the most part.  Derek Jeter did have one rather tasty quote regarding the negotiations:

“The thing that probably bothered me the most was how public this became. … It was not an enjoyable experience. … I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t angry about how some of this went.”

Everyone knows what it's like to find out a close friend or family member (one that you've been a champion for) is talking about you behind your back.  It happens to everyone at least once in their life.  It really sucks, and it can take a while to finally get over.

Now, imagine yourself in this same scenario only instead of it being a friend or family member that's making inappropriate (and possibly false) remarks about you, it's your employer.  And instead of them talking about you behind your back, they're airing their complaints out in the media where anyone can read or hear about it. Can you imagine how hurt you would feel?  That's what Derek Jeter is feeling right now. 

I'm not saying the Jeter/Close camp was perfect in this situation.  They weren't, and at times they seemed a little delusional.  That said, they never said anything that could be construed as an insult at the Yankees.  Did they call the Yankees contract offer "baffling?"  Sure, but they never questioned the Yankees ability to run their franchise.

The Yankees, on the other hand, leaked insults like "(Jeter) needs to drink the reality potion."  While this was great fodder for the back pages and blogosphere, it was unnecessary.  It was hurtful.  Yankee leadership (the Steinbrenners, Randy Levine, and Brian Cashman) should have done more to stop the leaked reports.  While it's possible they dealt with these leaks behind closed doors, they should have done so publicly.  The fact they didn't publicly admonish the leaks does make me question whether the Yankees are as classy as they try to appear.

Eventually, the bridge between the Yankees and Jeter will be repaired, but it's going to take some time.  Jeter has a lot of hurt feelings he has to sort through.  I don't think this will affect the manner in which he carries himself as the face of the franchise.  That said, I don't expect him to go above and beyond to protect it either.

Jeter, Yankees Finally Agree

UPDATE (12/4/2010 @ 6:20 p.m.):  Jack Curry has some news on the much talked about fourth year option.  It's a player option that guarantees Jeter $8M, and has incentives that can max it out at $17M.  In the event Jeter declines the option, he'll need to buy out his contract for $3M.  Very interesting contract indeed.

5:04 p.m.:  Mark Craig of the Newark Star-Ledger tweeted that the Yankees and Jeter have finalized the deal.  Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated concurs with this report.  The deal will be for 3 years at $17M per year with an non-guaranteed fourth year.  The deal is pending a physical.

The Derek Jeter Saga Nearly Over

UPDATE (12/4/2010 @ 4:30p.m.):  Mark Craig of the Newark Star Ledger reports that a deal could be completed as early as this evening, but an official announcement my not come until next week's Winter Meetings in Orlando.  The contract will be for three years at $15-17M per season.

The word regarding the fourth season is still pretty murky.  It's been described as "very unusual," and will be include "a combination of guaranteed money and compensation that will be tied to incentives."  Well, that's not confusing at all.    

12:30 p.m.:  Michael S. Schmidt of the NY Times has the bittersweet scoop on the Derek Jeter contract negotiations

"The Yankees and shortstop Derek Jeter talked late into Friday night and are close to a three-year agreement that will pay him $15 million to $17 million a year, according to a person in baseball who was briefed on the matter.

The agreement, the person said, will include a “creative hybrid-type option” for a fourth year. The person said the option is 'not vesting and is highly unusual.'"

So there you have it.  The long nightmare appears to be ending.  I don't how I'm going to fill the countless hours I spend everyday scouring the internet for Jeter stories, but I'm sure I'll survive.  If all else fails, there's always internet porn, but I digress...

I'm not sure what to make of the "creative hybrid-type option" for the fourth year.  If it's not guaranteed, and it's not a vested option, what is it?  It kinda sounds like a load of crap.  They're essentially saying they've agreed in principle on the first three years, but they don't have a clue on how they'll handle the fourth.  Still, that's a lot closer than they were a week ago.  If the reports are true, a deal should be completed by the end of the weekend.

Another interesting aspect of the Jeter deal is that he (and Rivera) has agreed to defer money as part of his contract.  Presumably, this would clear some additional money for Cliff Lee.  Stay tuned.

Will Jeter Sign Today?

Buster Olney surely thinks so.  He doesn’t really give us a lot of information, so I’m not sure how he came to this conclusion.  Then again, Buster Olney is the “go to” source for all things Yankee related, so when he speaks, I’m willing to listen.  It’s possible he has some insider information, but if he does, he’s not sharing it.  I can’t think of a reasonable angle as to why he’d withhold information, so I’ll assume he’s basing this off of intuition.  I’ll just remain skeptical until I hear anything else.

There are some positive reports that the Yankees have increased their offer to 3 years and $51M with a vesting option for a fourth season.  I’m not convinced Jeter will take the bait—at least not yet.  It’s still a pay cut of almost $2M per season in terms of average annual salary (AAS), so that might be tough for him to swallow.  While this may end up being the contract Jeter finally agrees to, I expect there to be some maneuvering on the part of Jeter and Close.  Don’t be surprised if you hear reports that Team Jeter has countered the Yankees offer with a contract that has an AAS around $19-20M and a guaranteed fourth year. 

Now that the two sides have decided to act in a civil, rational manner, I see no reason why this deal can’t be worked out relatively quickly.  I predict the negotiations will probably play out for another week to ten days.  In the end, the Yankees and Jeter will agree to terms, and all will be right with the world. 

Lupica's Blind Rage

I couldn't resist...

 

Few columnists make my blood boil like Mike Lupica.  His latest column in the NY Daily News is no different:

“Just so you know: The Yankees don't just want to cut Jeter's salary because he's getting older, or because he had his worst year. Or because his range has diminished - this at a time when you can actually see A-Rod calcifying in front of your eyes at third base - or because they don't want to be saddled with another huge contract for an aging champion.

(snip)

Hank Steinbrenner comes out the other day and says "we've already made these guys very, very rich."  We.  Apparently meaning him.  Another guy who thinks he's the Yankees, and not guys like Derek Jeter.  Hank, you made one guy rich:  A-Rod. 

(snip)

You gave him a contract that takes him to the age of 42 and could pay him up to $200 million, which means twice what A-Rod was going to make anywhere else.  Who were you bidding against on that one, Son of the Boss?”

Well, I guess that’s settled.  A-Rod is at fault for the Derek Jeter situation.  Then again, I probably should’ve known better.  Every problem the Yankees have is in some way due to A-Rod.  Clearly, he’s a curse, and should probably be taken out into the street and shot. 

What?  Was that too over the top?  Sorry, I was just channeling my inner Mike Lupica. 

It's incredibly played out (not to mention lazy) to place blame on A-Rod for the ills of the Yankees.  Did the Yankees make a mistake in signing him, then 32 years old, to a 10 year $275M contract?  Yes.  That said, he was coming off a 9 WAR season in which he hit .314/.422/.645, and won the MVP.  He was at the top of his game, and there were no indications he was headed for a quick and imminent decline phase.  Sure, the Yankees were bidding against themselves, but considering the information available at the time, A-Rod and Boras weren't going to settle for a contract smaller than the 10 year $252M deal they just opted out of.  Of course, the proverbial shit hit the fan prior to Spring Training of 2008 when his name was illegally leaked from the confidential 2003 steroid testing list.  Had the Yankees had this information prior to re-signing him, I'd have to imagine the Yankees would've signed him to a more reasonable (but still large) contract. 

Contrary to what Lupica would like you to believe, the kerfuffle over Jeter’s contract is primarily due to his performance, advancing age, and non-existent range or agility at the shortstop position.  The Yankees have every right to be be concerned about committing a significant portion of their payroll to a soon-to-be 37 year old shortstop.  If they didn't have reservations, I would openly question their abilities to put together a successful baseball team.  (Hence the reason I'm openly questioning Lupica's ability to talk about baseball in an intelligent fashion.)   That said, the Yankees are one of the smartest organizations in baseball.  While their payroll does give them an advantage, the Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers have proven that a large payroll doesn't guarantee success.  The Yankees have made mistakes in the past (Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, etc.), but they've learned from those errors.  Brian Cashman's autonomy and leadership have lead the charge towards a more efficiently run organization.  

While they know they're going to pay Jeter above the fair market value, they don't want to grossly overpay.   The Yankees are running a business, not a charity.  While it is somewhat perplexing they've chosen to exercise financial restraint with the most important Yankee since Mickey Mantle, it's the right move nonetheless.  In most baseball circles, Jeter's free agent fair market value is considered to be 2-3 years at $7-10M per season.  Personally, I have Jeter's value estimated at $12M per season over the next four years, which I feel might be a bit optimistic.  This makes the Yankees good faith offer of 3 years at $15M per season incredibly generous--and the premise of Lupica's argument completely ludicrous.  

Curly Haired Boyfriend has a Crazy Idea

Dan Shaughnessy or Napoleon Dynamite?  You decide...

Dan Shaughnessy has officially lost his mind.  No, seriously.  Earlier today, he suggested that it would be a good idea for the Red Sox to offer Derek Jeter a 3 year $60M contract. 

"Dissing Jeter is not a winning strategy, but the Yankees can get away with it because they know that no team is going to make a serious offer for the iconic shortstop.

Which brings us back to John Henry. Suppose the Red Sox step up and shock the world? There is simply no downside to making Jeter a massive offer. In the worst-case scenario he calls your bluff and you get the Yankees captain.

I don’t care if Jeter is way past his prime or if the Sox would have to wildly overpay a player of his diminished skills.

I say offer him the world. Forget about Jayson Werth. Blow Jeter away with dollars and years. At worst this would just mean the Sox would jack up the final price the Yankees must pay. It could be sort of like Mark Teixeira-in-reverse.

And if Jeter actually signed with Boston, the damage to the Yankees’ psyche would be inestimable.

Jeter finishing his career in a Red Sox uniform would be the 2004 American League Championship Series all over again for the hated New Yorkers. Think of how you’d have felt if the Knicks had signed Larry Bird at the end of his career."

Really?  That's your great idea?  While it might be a little fun poking a stick into the Yankees side, at the end of the day it's not worth it.  What do the Red Sox have to gain by wasting their energy and resources on a player they're never going to sign?  Jeter is a Yankee through and through.  He takes wearing Yankee pin stripes very seriously, and seems to take great joy in being a part of the Yankee mystique.  Honestly, we might have an easier time convincing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Holocaust was real.  Ok, maybe that's a little far.  I'm merely trying to point out that it's a wasted effort.  While it might force the Yankees to increase their offer, it's possible they're going to do that anyway.   Sure, it's nice that they're holding the line, but they're not going to let a few million dollars get in the way of their Captain retiring as a Yankee. 

What would the Red Sox do in the extremely unlikely event Jeter and Close accepted the 3/$60M offer?  It would be nothing short of a disaster.  While the contract doesn't have long term ramifications, it would huge short term consequences.  You know how Theo strives for payroll flexibility?  You can kiss that goodbye for the next three seasons.  That bridge Theo was building?  Let's just say it would collapse under the weight of Jeter's massive salary.  How about prospect Jose Iglesias?  Blocked.  It's unlikely that Jeter would be willing to both sign with the Yankees and change positions.  As a result, the Red Sox pitching staff would suffer immensely causing ERAs to jump. 

Shaughnessy's article is clearly aimed at the "Yankees suck!" crowd.  While I appreciate being a part of that crowd (albeit ONLY when the Red Sox and Yankees are playing), it's not a particularly bright or rational crowd.  It's too bad he feels more comfortable channeling the aimless emotion of Red Sox Nation in his articles.  He'd better serve both RSN and the Boston Globe by providing original, rational baseball analysis.  

Close, Jeter Meeting with Yankees in Tampa

Since there really isn't too much going on, I thought I'd pass on Ken Rosenthal's latest tweet:

"Jeter, Close meeting with #Yankees officials in Tampa. Story coming on FOXSports.com. #MLB"

This likely means absolutely nothing, but I (like every other blogger and journalist) am desperate for new Derek Jeter news.  I'm starting to feel like Ewan McGregor in Trainspotting.  You laugh, but I was about ten minutes away from seeing babies crawl across the ceiling.

Stay tuned...

Jeter Gets Served!

The Yankees seem to be getting a little feisty lately.  Earlier today, Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York reported that the Yankees (or should I say a source inside the organization) think their Captain shortstop needs to “drink the reality potion” before stepping back up to the negotiating table.  Oh, and just when you thought the talks weren’t completely dysfunctional, there’s news that the two sides haven’t so much as texted each other since before Thanksgiving.  Simply delicious! 

This isn’t going to be resolved for another couple of months, so prepare to get daily updates on the ongoing saga.  The whole situation is very un-Yankee like.  The Yankee’s image of class and sophistication has been temporarily replaced by the image of the Maury Povich show on “paternity test day”.  Everyone’s scratching, clawing, and yelling, while the studio audience is cheering for more.  It’s trashy and horrifying, yet I can’t look away. 

For the Love of God...Can the Nightmare Finally be Over?

I'm really getting sick of writing about the Derek Jeter situation.  There are times where I feel like it's all I talk about.  That said, the storyline is just so compelling.  It's kind of fun watching the Yankees and their Captain bicker over millions of dollars.  This is baseball's equivalent to Kanye West and his crazy tweets, or Lindsey Lohan and her inability to stay out of rehab.  It's become a water cooler story that keeps getting juicier as time goes on.  And juicier, it has become...

Yesterday, I mentioned that Bill Madden reported that Derek Jeter was requesting a somewhere around 6 years $150M.  Later, I updated the post with a quote from Jeter's agent, Casey Close, who stated Madden's report was "simply inaccurate".*  Today, there are two new reports (one from Michael S. Schmidt of the New York Times and another from Bill Madden and Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News) stating that Jeter is requesting a deal worth $22-24M over four to five seasons.

*Odd choice of the word "simply", don't you think?  Has anything regarding these negotiations been simple?

To quote the movie Clueless, "Whatever".  If the reports are true, Casey Close is really splitting hairs over what he considers to be "simply inaccurate".  Sure, the $25M per season figure was a little off, but it wasn't by that much.  It's certainly not off by enough to warrant coming out with a statement refuting the report.  Then again, there could be an ulterior motive for refuting the report.  As I've mentioned a few times before, when you look at the situation objectively, it's ludicrous for Jeter to expect a contract of that magnitude.  After all, he is a 36 year old shortstop that was below average offensively (per wOBA, EqA, and OPS) and defensively (per every advanced metric available) in 2010.  This is true, even after you add Jeter's intangible qualities to the equation.

Perhaps, Close knows his demands are insane, and he's trying to save face by attempting to keep his demands private.  I don't know whether this is true or not, but I'm starting to wonder if it is.   As I mentioned yesterday, Close forcefully refuted Madden's report of 6/$150M.  Throughout the negotiation process, he has never once mentioned what he (and Jeter) felt was a reasonable offer.  The only thing he's mentioned is that the Yankees offers (presumably around 3/$45M) haven't been inline with a player of Jeter's stature.   At this point, there are too many reports claiming Jeter's looking for A-Rod type money (albeit a little less) for me not to believe it.  Close's denials are coming off as desperate and hollow.

Derek Jeter Looking for an Insane Contract

Earlier today, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News reported that the Jeter/Close camp is looking for a contract in the range of 6 years $150M.

"Throughout this process, Close and Jeter have never revealed what they're actually looking for - which is why so many Yankee fans, opposing club officials and nationwide media types are asking: Why are the Yankees treating Jeter this way? But sources close to the Jeter/Close camp have said their starting point was six years, $150 million and that they aren't budging on $25 million per year - which would effectively get the captain about even in annual average salary to Alex Rodriguez, the real benchmark from their standpoint in this negotiation."

Yes, you read that correctly.  As I mentioned the other day, the Yankees have given Jeter their blessing to test the free agent market.  Presumably, this will give Jeter and Close a chance to see how much he's really worth on the free agent market, thereby bringing his demands back to reality.

The Jeter free agent frenzy is going to be a long, painful road.  Dave Cameron recently compared Jeter's situation to that of Manny Ramirez during the 2008-2009 offseason.  I don't think that's too far off to be honest.  Like Manny, Jeter is coming to terms with the idea that his value is not nearly as great as it once was.  That can be a tough lesson for any player to learn--especially one that's been a cornerstone for one of the keystone franchises in baseball.

UPDATE (11/26/2010 @ 6:05 p.m.):  Jeter's agent, Casey Close, responded to the claim that Jeter is requesting a 6 year $150M contract:

"The recently rumored terms of our contract extension are simply inaccurate."

Not surprising.  He doesn't want anyone thinking that neither he, nor his client, are crazy.  Of course, Close didn't say what he and Jeter were requesting from the Yankees (or any other team for that matter).  Then again, Close doesn't seem like the kind of guy that likes to negotiate through the media.  Oh wait...

Yankees Decide Not to Offer Arbitration to Cap'n Jetes

Did you hear that?  If you listen closely enough, you can hear about ten million people scream "WTF" in unison.  Why?  Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York reported that the Yankees will not be offering salary arbitration to Derek Jeter.  Yankee GM Brian Cashman took it a step further in his interview:

“We understand his contributions to the franchise and our offer has taken them into account. We’ve encouraged him to test the market and see if there’s something he would prefer other than this. If he can, fine. That’s the way it works . . . We feel Derek Jeter gives us the best chance to win. But we’re not dealing with Derek alone. We’re dealing with our closer, we’re trying to add to our club, and if putting all out eggs into one basket takes away from our ability to add to our club, I ain’t gonna do it.”

Excuse me for a second, but...HOLY CRAP!  Did Cashman really just say that?  First of all, let me say that I love the fact the Yankees are playing hardball with him.  Clearly, they're sick of seeing Jeter and his agent, Casey Close, negotiate through the media.  Rather than ignore the attacks (a la John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential race), the Yankees are fighting back.  Hardball Talk's Craig Calcaterra gave his perspective regarding the Yankees strategy in one of his posts today:

"That’s most likely it was rhetorical, meant more to signal to Casey Close that he needs to negotiate with the team rather than grouse to the Daily News or whoever.  Of course, the team is clearly planting its talking points with the New York Times and now ESPN New York, so they’re all a part of the same hypocrisy, Senator.  It’s just that Cashman has the leverage, it seems, so his little digs are way more delicious."

Yeah, it is a little hypocritical, but what did you expect the Yankees to do?  Jeter and Close are trying to holding the Yankees hostage, and the Yankees aren't going to take it.  As I've mentioned before, the Yankees hold most of the cards.  While both parties need each other, Jeter needs the Yankees far more.  By re-signing with the Yankees, Jeter stands to make significantly more money in terms of both contract and endorsements.  Additionally, he gets to build upon his legacy.  First, sometime during the 2011 season, he'll become the first Yankee to ever accumulate 3000 hits while playing with the club.*  Second, he gets to accomplish two things that Yankee greats like Babe Ruth and Yogi Berra can't say they did--spend their entire career and retire with the Yankees.  You can belittle these all you want, but it's a big deal.

*Consider that for a moment.  With all of the great players that have put on a Yankee uniform, no player has ever accumulated 3000 hits during his tenure with the team.  Babe Ruth had 2518; Lou Gerhig had 2721; Joe Dimaggio, who lost three years to serving in military, had 2214; Mickey Mantle had 2415; and Yogi Berra had 2148.  Jeter currently has 2926.

So what does the Yankees decision mean?  Well, for starters, the reality of this decision is likely to be significantly different than fan perception.  Most fans will look at this decision (combined with Cashman's comments to Wallace Matthews) as the Yankees choosing to move on without their captain.  The reality of the situation is that the Yankees are trying to put themselves in the best position to not get burned.

Case in point.  After the 2002 season, Greg Maddux, coming off of a season where he made $13.1M, was a free agent, and was looking for another long term contract.  During his previous season, Maddux started showing signs of decline.  While he went 16-6 with a 2.62 ERA, he did so in only 199-1/3 innings despite making 34 starts.*  Plus, his K/9 rate plummeted from 6.7 to 5.3, while seeing his BB/9 rate jump from 1.0 to 2.0.  As a result, the Braves decided to let Maddux leave as a free agent.  Believing that several teams would be coveting the four time Cy Young award winner, the Braves offered Maddux salary arbitration believing they would receive two compensatory draft picks in return from the team that signed him.  After a month of negotiating with teams, Maddux's agent Scott Boras found that no one was willing to give a soon-to-be 36 year old starting pitcher the kind of long term contract he was demanding.  Rather than settle for a less than optimal contract, Boras recommended that Maddux not only accept the Braves offer of salary arbitration, but also use 2003 as a season to rebuild his value.  Maddux's acceptance of salary arbitration gave the Braves no choice but to negotiate a one year deal.  The two parties weren't able to come to a consensus, and ended up pleading their cases before an arbitrator.  Based on the strength of his primary statistics and previous salary, the arbitrator gave Maddux a pay raise to $14.75M, which was far more than he was worth.  2003 would end up being Maddux's worst season as an Atlanta Brave providing only 3.9 Wins Above Replacement, and providing $11M in value.  Needless to say, the Braves did not offer him salary arbitration after the 2003 season, and let him walk.  He ended up signing a three year deal to return to the Chicago Cubs.

*It was the first time since 1987 that he failed to record 200 innings.  He'd even done so during the strike shortened seasons of 1994 and 1995.  

What does Greg Maddux have to do with Jeter?  Everything.  Jeter and the Yankees are currently entangled in an ugly, high profile contract negotiation.  Team Jeter believes he should be paid not only for his on field performance, but also the intangible value he provides to the Yankees.  The Yankees, while recognizing his intangible value, understand that Jeter is a declining asset.  At 36 years old, there's reason to believe Jeter is in a state of decline, and has been since 2007.  While he was great in 2009, it was likely an aberration that was enhanced by his ability to take advantage of the jet stream that was carrying balls out of the park in right-center field.  Without the advantage of the jet stream (in 2010), he reverted back to the player he was in 2007 and 2008.  If the Yankees were to offer Jeter salary arbitration, it's very likely he would accept the Yankees offer.  Considering how far apart the two parties are on a long term contract, I think it's safe to say they won't come to terms on a one year deal prior to arbitration.  With Jeter's reputation, recent MVP worthy season (2009), and 2010 salary ($21M), Jeter is almost guaranteed to be awarded a salary in the neighborhood of $21-23M.  Armed with a salary he finds acceptable, he could use the 2011 season to rebuild his value and improve his bargaining position.

Obviously, the Yankees are too smart to allow themselves to get pulled into a losing situation.  By not offering Jeter arbitration, they've essentially backed him into a corner.  Sure, the Yankees won't get to the two guaranteed compensation picks (in the unlikely event he went to another team), but in doing so, they've minimize his negotiating power.  Jeter's intangible value exists only for the Yankees.  They know that he won't be receiving contract offers anywhere near what the Yankees are offering from any other team.  By offering him the ability to seek employment elsewhere, they're giving him the opportunity to find that out first hand.  When he does, he'll have no choice, but to come back to the Yankees and agree to a contract on their terms.  As disgusted as this makes me (as an ardent Yankee hater), they're playing it brilliantly.  The Yankees are the premier franchise for a reason.  They not only have the most money, but they're often one of the two or three smartest teams in baseball.   For that, I tip my hat to both the Yankees and Brian Cashman.

Jeter Disappointed by Yankees Use of Financial Restraint

According to Mike Lupica, Derek Jeter is rather unhappy with the way contract negotiations have been progressing.  His agent Casey Close called it "baffling".  Why?  The Yankees have been holding tight on their 3 year $45M contract offer.  All along, Close has argued that Jeter's value extends beyond the numbers and on field contributions.  Based on the quote from Lupica's piece, that hasn't changed.

“There’s a reason the Yankees themselves have stated Derek Jeter is their modern-day Babe Ruth. Derek’s significance to the team is much more than just stats,” said agent Casey Close.  “And yet, the Yankees’ negotiating strategy remains baffling.  They continue to argue their points in the press and refuse to acknowledge Derek’s total contribution to their franchise.”

If I were Jeter's agent, I'd say the same thing.  Really, I'd say just about anything to get people to forget I was representing a 36 year old shortstop that just hit .270/.340/.370 (.320 wOBA), while playing below average defense.  While Jeter's value to the Yankees does extend past statistics, that additional value only exists for the Yankees.  The funny thing about these negotiations is that if the player in question wasn't named Derek Jeter, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.  His contract would be similar to the one Marco Scutaro received from the Red Sox last year (2 years $10M with a third year option).  Based on the numbers and his age, it's possible Jeter's performance will continue to rapidly deteriorate, thus potentially making his next contract an albatross hanging around the Yankees necks.  It's understandable as to why the Yankees would want to tread carefully.  In reality, it's pretty ridiculous that he's disappointed he'll only be paid $15M over the next three seasons, especially since there's reason to believe he doesn't deserve it. 

That said, the player in question is named Derek Jeter.  For better or worse, there's an aura that surrounds him.  He's going to get paid for that mystique.  The only questions that remain are (1) how much will he be paid for his intangible qualities, and (2) how these negotiations will affect Jeter's long term relationship with the franchise.  If his contract continues to get played out in the media, it could get really ugly.

AL Gold Glove Awards Announced

The American League Gold Glove Award winners were announced, and once again they've proven to be a completely useless barometer of defensive excellence.  In other news, water is wet, Lindsey Lohan is in rehab, Clay Aiken is gay, and Ricky Martin is a fan of golden showers.  (Enjoy the visual by the way.)

Peter Abrahams of the Boston Globe has the scoop on the most egregious of poor choices for the award:

"Jeter winning is a bit comical considering he's simply not a very good shortstop and is arguably one of the worst given his lack of range. UZR is not necessarily an accurate stat for one season. But he was seventh in the AL among qualifying shortstops. Jeter did not get a single vote in the Fielding Bible Awards, which reflect much more statistically driven opinion. And those guys vote 10 spots. ... Prepare for much outrage over the Jeter pick but I doubt Rawlings or MLB will change the rules. It's a ridiculous, flawed process and has been for a while."

Comical is probably the nicest thing I could say about Jeter winning his fifth Gold Glove.  Out of the nine eligible AL shortstops, Jeter finished seventh in  UZR (-4.7), eighth in Defensive Runs Scored (-13), and ninth in range factor (3.78).  The only two categories that Jeter led the league in were errors (6) and fielding percentage (.989).  While this might look nice on the surface, these two statistics are the single most subjective (and therefore, meaningless) statistics in baseball.  If the award was given on the basis of defensive merit, either Alexei Ramirez or Cliff Pennington would've won it.  Jeter won solely based on a reputation he doesn't deserve.

As for the other awards:

Catcher: Joe Mauer (Twins) - I don't have any issue with this one.  While you could certainly make a case for Kurt Suzuki or Matt Weiters, Joe Mauer is a very good defensive catcher.

First base: Mark Teixeira (Yankees) - Teixeira is not a bad choice.  He's a very good defensive first baseman, but I find him to be a little overrated.  Not a lot, but a little.  That said, Daric Barton was far and away the best defensive player at his position beating his nearest competitors in UZR by 12 runs and DRS by 11 runs.  Also, it should be noted that only two eligible AL first basemen had positive UZRs--Barton at 12.1 and Lyle Overbay at 0.1.   

Second base: Robinson Cano (Yankees) - Cano made some huge strides defensively this year, and he should be commended for it.  That said, I find it hard to believe anyone thought he was better than either Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson.  Hudson in particular has a tremendous reputation for being a superior defensive second baseman.  Hudson has won four Gold Gloves, and had put together his best defensive season (per UZR) since 2005.  My opinion is that Cano got the edge based on his tremendous offensive season.  While this shouldn't matter, it often has serves as a tiebreaker with some voters.

Third base: Even Longoria (Rays) - No problem with this one.  Longoria is a stud with a glove.  I might've gone with Adrian Beltre (who deserves more than two Gold Glove awards), and several have made compelling arguments for Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Still, Longoria is deserving of the honor.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter (Yankees) - Ugh.  See above.

Outfield: Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners), Carl Crawford (Rays), Franklin Gutierrez (Mariners) - Again, no real issues with these choices either, but I kinda like the Fielding Bible's choice of Brett Gardner.  I'm not sure who I'd bump off of the list, but my gut would be to kick Gutierrez off of the list.  That said, he deserves recognition for his tremendous defense--especially since he was unacceptably omitted from last year's awards.

Pitcher: Mark Buehrle (White Sox) - After his tremendous play on Opening Day, was their every any question who would win?

Just to get out ahead of the NL GGs being announced tomorrow, here are my picks:

Catcher:  Yadier Molina
First Base:  Albert Pujols
Second Base:  Chase Utley (if he doesn't finally win, I'm going to start a riot in the streets)
Third Base:  Ryan Zimmerman
Shortstop:  Troy Tulowitski or Stephen Drew (it's a toss up since both are great)
Outfield:  Andres Torres, Jay Bruce, and Justin Upton
Pitcher:  Tim Hudson

As the Rumor Mill Turns...

ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews has some insider information on the Jeter negotiations:

"Derek Jeter is going to be paid Ryan Howard money for putting up Marco Scutaro numbers.

The Yankees are going to overpay him," said a source with intimate knowledge of the discussions between the team and Casey Close, Jeter's agent. "The question is, how much are they going to overpay him?"

Rumors are that the Yankees will start off negotiations at 3 years and $45M, but they're prepared to go as high as $60M depending on how things progress.  Paying Jeter $15M per season is definitely a reach, but it's still within the reasonable range.  $20M per season borders on reckless.  I'm not saying it's surprising or shocking, just risky.  The blogger formerly known as Shysterball gives an interesting perspective:

"The $15-20 million figure for Jeter is not too far off from what the pundits had been predicted. A little on the high side if they go $20 million a year, of course. And no matter where it ends up, the deal will be worth way more than Jeter is worth on purely baseball merits. But hey, it’s Jeter. It’s the Yankees. You knew those crazy kids were going to stick together and you knew it was going to be expensive."

And so it goes in Yankee world.  And so it goes...

A 6 Year Deal? Surely, You Jest!

It’s been quite an interesting week in Yankeeland, at least as it pertains to the Derek Jeter negotiations.  During an interview on 1050 ESPN Radio, Hal Steinbrenner discussed the on-going contract talks:

"We absolutely want him back. ... But having said that, we're running a business here, so if there's a deal to be done, it's going to have to be a deal that both sides are happy with."

(snip)

"Who knows?  You just never know with these things. Both parties need to be happy with the deal, and that may make things more complicated, I don't know.

"There's always the possibility that things could get messy."

Wow.  Are the Yankees playing hardball with the face of the franchise?  I don’t know.  After years of lavishly spending money on old, overpriced free agents, I have a hard time believing they’re going to start exercising fiscal restraint with Jeter.  On the other hand, these aren’t your father’s Yankees anymore.  Big Stein passed away earlier this year, and there’s a new sheriff in town that seems to be a little more bottom line oriented. 

As I discussed two weeks ago, this isn’t going to be an easy negotiation.  For starters, Jeter isn’t that far removed his 2009 MVP caliber season (7.1 WAR) where he posted a .390 wOBA, and (for the first time since 2002) posted a positive Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) on defense.  Then it all came crashing down.  Or did it?  When looking at the four year sample of 2007-2010, 2009 appears to be the clear outlier.  While Jeter should get some credit for his tremendous 2009 season, it’s probably smarter for the Yankees to focus more on the production of 2007, 2008, and 2010 when projecting Captain Jete’s future value. 

Then there’s the issue of his intangible value.  On Thursday, Jeter’s agent, Casey Close, told AOL Fanhouse:

"While it is not our intent to negotiate the terms of Derek's free-agent contract in a public forum, we do agree with Hal's and Brian [Cashman, the GM]'s recent comments that this contract is about business and winning championships. Clearly, baseball is a business, and Derek's impact on the sport's most valuable franchise cannot be overstated. Moreover, no athlete embodies the spirit of a champion more than Derek Jeter."

And out it comes.  Jeter and his agent are going to play the leadership card in an effort to get more money out of the deep pocketed Yankees.  I can’t say this isn’t a smart move because it is.  While I think that Jeter’s intangible leadership qualities are vastly overvalued (notice that I did not say overrated), he’s going to get paid for those qualities whether he re-signs with the Yankees or if he signs elsewhere.  Of course, we all know the payout for those qualities will be greater if he re-signs because (a) the Yankees are capable of paying players more than any other team, and (b) Jeter’s intangibles have greater value to Yankees than anyone else because of his position in Yankee history. 

Jeter is reportedly interested in playing until he’s 42, and may be looking for a six year deal.  Why 42?  Well, for starters, playing another six years could get him within striking range of 4000 hits.  Considering his current rate of regression, it probably won’t happen.  It probably would put him in the top 5 (or maybe even top 3) of all time.  Second of all, A-Rod’s contract expires when he’s 42.  My guess is that Jeter wants the Yankees to show him the same level of commitment and trust to perform at a high level into his twilight years, as they did with A-Rod.  The problem with that is that the Yankees made a huge mistake in signing A-Rod to that contract.   Signing a 31 year old player to a ten year deal for that kind of money is never a good idea—and A-Rod was coming off of a fantastic season.  Jeter, on the other hand, is 36 years old and coming off of the worst season of his career.  If the Yankees cave into Jeter’s demand for a six year deal, they deserve their fate—a team of overpriced veterans that consistently struggles to keep their record above .500. 

Ultimately, Jeter and the Yankees need each other.  Jeter needs the Yankees because being a career Yankee preserves his legacy.  With another 74 hits, he would become the only Yankee to ever accumulate 3000 hits with the team.  The Yankees need Jeter because he’s their Captain.  Plus, can you imagine the media thrashing they would receive if A-Rod remained on the team, and Jeter was allowed to walk as a free agent?  Talk about a scandal…  Eventually, a deal between the two parties will get done.  Hopefully (or not because this is turning out to be one of the better storylines of the offseason), this gets done quickly and quietly behind closed doors.  Then again, I’m not sure that will happen.  For two parties that have publically stated they don’t want to negotiate through the media, they don’t seem to be doing a very good job so far.