Vlad Deal Includes $3M in Deferred Money

Well, this makes it all better...

If he passes his #Orioles' physical and deal becomes official, Guerrero will make $5 million in 2011 with $3 million being deferred.

That tweet was from Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.  

Yeah, so the $3M deferred makes this deal marginally more palatable, but not really.  They're still paying him $5M this year when they could've easily paid him the $2M salary Manny Ramirez is getting from the Rays.  Plus, they're paying him $3M next season when he probably isn't going to be on the team anymore.  It just doesn't make any sense.  Peter Angelos, Andy McPhail, and the rest of the Orioles executive staff still have to look in the mirror everyday, and realize they outbid themselves for an aging DH that's past his prime.  They got straight up "Borased" by someone much less talented that Scott Boras.

Orioles Fall for the Mystery Team Ploy...Entire League Points and Laughs

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, the Orioles have signed Vlad Guerrero to a one year deal worth $8M.  Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and Jeff Zrebiak of the Baltimore Sun have both confirmed the report.

Man, the Orioles are total suckers.  They totally fell for that "mystery team" BS.  Simply amazing.  Oh, and by the way, he's making as much as Damon and Manny combined.  Who do you think got the better deal on this one:  the Rays or Orioles?  Advantage Rays.

If you ever are looking for reasons why the Orioles finish near the bottom of the league every year, look no further than this deal as a prime example.  They probably overpaid for Vlad by $6M.

Somewhere a crazy-eyed Kevin Millwood is licking his chops, eagerly awaiting his sucker...

Vlad Guerrero and the Mystery Team Machine

As Buster Olney reports today, the Vlad Guerrero talks are about to heat up.

"The Vladimir Guerrero talks will gather some momentum in the next 48 hours, one way or another. The Orioles have an offer on the table; last week, Guerrero's side informed them that they had an offer worth $8 million in play. It's not clear which team would have made the $8 million offer."

Really?  Guerrero's still totting around that story?  This is the second mentioning of Vlad's "mystery team" in a week.  The first time it was mentioned was on 1/28 also by Buster Olney.

I think the thing that amazes me about this whole situation is that Vlad supposedly received this amazing one year $8M offer (which coincidentally just happens to be the exact offer he's been seeking), and yet he hasn't jumped at it.  Doesn't this seem really strange?  It does to me.  I can see him shopping it around for a day or two, but an entire week?  Isn't he afraid this mystery team might get sick of waiting for him to sign, and pull their offer?  It's not like there are multiple teams beating down his door at this point.  We're talking about the Orioles, and that's about it.  Based on their thirteen year record of futility, it's not like he's hoping to sign with the Orioles because he wants to sign with a contending club. 

So what's he waiting for?  Well, honestly, the mystery team sounds pretty fake--not just a little fake, but really fake.  If I were the Orioles, I'd call his bluff.  I'd keep shooting him low ball offers, and with each offer, I'd reduce it slightly.  Eventually, he'll have to make a decision:  sit out the season or swallow his pride and accept the offer.  Chances are, he'll come crawling back and accept the low ball offer.  When he does, the Orioles will have a solid hitter for bargain basement price.

A Mystery Team in January? How Novel!

According to Buster Olney, Vladmir Guerrero has received a one year $8M contract from an unnamed mystery team, but has decided to continue shopping around for the time being.

Really?  So you're telling me that some team met Vlad's demands for a one year $8M deal, and he's still shopping?  I'm not saying Buster is wrong (he's just reporting the information he's being fed), but something doesn't seem right.   As soon as I read the report, two things came to mind.  One, don't Jon Heyman and Scott Boras have the market cornered on mystery teams?  Two, why is Vlad still reportedly talking to the Orioles?

According to recent reports, Vlad was unimpressed by the Orioles "low ball" offer of one year $2M.  If I had an ideal offer from one team, and I was made an insulting offer from another, I would stop negotiating immediately.  That's just me though.  Furthermore, the Orioles have stated they only have $4.5M (maximum) to spend, and they still would like to add another arm to their bullpen.  That pretty much precludes them from getting anywhere close to matching the unnamed mystery team's offer. 

So what's Vlad's upside to continue negotiating when he has a perfectly good $8M offer from another team?  There isn't one.  The problem is that like all great mystery teams, they don't exist.  Vlad hasn't received an $8M offer.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles were the only team actively negotiating with Team Vlad.  They're using this "offer" to try and gain some leverage on the Orioles.  Unfortunately for Vlad and his agent, this maneuver is so transparent that no one in their right mind (not even Jon Heyman, the master behind the mystery team) believes him.

In a semi-related note, if the Orioles do end up being successful in signing Guerrero, word is that Luke Scott will move to LF, and Felix Pie will be the odd man out. 

The Orioles Make Official Offer to Vlad

Acccording to Ken Rosenthal, the Baltimore Orioles have offered Vlad Guerrero a one year deal worth somewhere between $3-5M.  While the team hopes he accepts their offer, they are fully prepared for him to turn it down.  Considering the reports of Vlad's recent change in contract demands (at least one year at $8M), I'm not surprised the Orioles are taking that mentality.

As Rosenthal reports in his piece today, Guerrero may have no choice but to sign with the Orioles.  As I failed to point out yesterday, the Angels actually have a DH in Bobby Abreu.  If the Angels ponied up and signed Vlad, they would have to move the defensively challenged Abreu back to LF and Wells over to CF.  This would essentially destroy the benefit (and I use that term loosely) of making the Vernon Wells trade in the first place.

As I pointed out yesterday, now that the Rangers have traded for C/1B/DH Mike Napoli, Vlad isn't a fit in Texas either.  For the Rangers to clear a roster spot for Guerrero, they would have to find a team willing to take on Michael Young and $48M remaining on his contract.  That could prove to be incredibly difficult.  Seriously, who would take on that albatross of a contract?   Hmmm...  Um...maybe...the Angels?  I hear they're always willing to take on a bad contract or two.

That leaves the Orioles.  Considering Guerrero's obvious lack of options, the Orioles are in a great position to name their price, and let him come to them.  Based on the reports coming out of Vlad's camp, he has no intention of sitting out the season.  Eventually, he'll need to settle.  When he does, the Orioles should be in a great position to pick up a good hitter for a bargain basement price. 

Vlad's Fantasy Land...Population? One

Does anyone want a good laugh?  Good.  Because you're about to get one.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Vlad Guerrero has backed away from his demands for a two year $16M contract.  That's probably a smart move considering it's January, he's 36, and a designated hitter.  Actually, let me rephrase that.  It's definitely a smart move, and it's one he should've made around the start of the New Year.  Still, better late than never. 

So what kind of deal does he have in mind now?  If you said, one year at $8M, you'd not only be correct, but also probably be living in the same fantasy world that Vlad is living in right now.  There is absolutely no way he's ever going to see that kind of money--at least not this offseason.   In a way, Vlad's situation is eerily reminiscent of the situation many American home sellers went through during the first eighteen months of the real estate market crash.  Like the American home seller, he set his price based on information that no longer applied, and then refused to accept the fact that his value was significantly lower than he'd anticipated.  Once he finally realized it, it was too late--and then he didn't cut his price far enough to attract interested buyers!

As far as I can tell, Guerrero has exactly two viable suitors right now.  The Orioles and the Angels.  The Orioles indicated yesterday that they have limited funds remaining to sign free agents.  Unless Vlad reduces his price again, it's unlikely he signs with them.  The Angels appear to have a need at DH now that they've traded away Mike Napoli, but they recently took on $81M of the remaining $86M of Vernon Wells's contract.  Under normal circumstances, I would say that would preclude the Angels from signing Vlad.  But, if they're willing to take on Wells and his ridiculous contract, what's adding a few million more to the payroll.  Right?

As I mentioned the other day, Vlad is in for a rude awakening.  I see him signing for a Manny Ramirez type deal, or possibly even one less than that.   

Vlad's Options are Shrinking

The market for Vlad has been eerily quiet all winter.  While I never expected him to be among the most highly sought after free agents, I certainly expected him to be signed by now.  Now, that he's the last remaining big name free agent remaining on the market, reports have finally started coming in fast and furious. 

Today, SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers are out of the running, and the Orioles have "limited funds at this stage" with which to sign him.  At first glance, it seems a little bit surprising that a player who put up a .300/29/115 season would still be trolling the free agent market in search of an acceptable contract at the end of January.  Then, you remember that he's about to turn 36, and that he's completely untrustworthy defensively.  Also, Manny Ramirez, a reasonably close comparable, recently received a one year $2.5M deal from the Rays this past weekend, which probably hurt his value immensely.

It's becoming much more clear to me that Vlad is going to have to settle for a one year deal around $1.0-1.5M with lots of performance based incentives.  Me thinks he shouldn't have pushed his demands for a two year deal for so long.  Otherwise, he might've received a much more favorable contract by now.

Rangers Leave Door Open for Vlad

When Rangers President Nolan Ryan speaks, people tend to listen.  Perhaps it has something to do with the fact he's a living legend, or maybe it's because he's shown that he lacks the internal monologue most of us employ.  Either way, he's direct, and you always know what's on his mind.  Yesterday, he took some questions from fans at the Rangers fan fest, and had this to say about Vladmir Guererro.

"They were looking for a two-year contract and we had agreed with him and his agent that it was a mutual option this year, so we agreed to let them go out on the market and see what the market bared. And he hadn't been able, to this point, to get a two-year contract. Is there still a possibility that he could end up signing with us? Yeah, there is. But I'm not for sure what other interest is out there as far as he is concerned. I think that will play out in the next 20 days before spring training. ... You'd love to have that bat, another right-handed bat on the bench, or him DHing when Michael Young is playing a position. That will obviously come into play in the decision of where he's going to go. How many at-bats he thinks he's going to get somewhere."

I would like to remind you that the last time Ryan left the door open to sign a free agent, that man was Adrian Beltre.  Within a week, Beltre was a Ranger.  I'm not predicting he'll sign with the Rangers.  I'm not even saying there's a pattern here that we should keep an eye on.  I'm just pointing out the similarities in the situations. 

Much like the Beltre situation, there isn't an obvious fit for Guererro.  The Rangers currently have Michael Young covering the DH spot, and there's absolutely no chance they give Vlad another shot to play the outfield; especially after his dreadful performance in Game 1 of the World Series.  That leaves him with one option if he decides to sign with the Rangers--agree to a one year contract and be their part-time DH.  Otherwise, he can continue to troll the free agent market in hopes of scoring a starting job with either the Orioles or Angels, both of whom are projected to be non-contenders.  Both options have their benefits and drawbacks.  It's almost like a poison pill.  Such is the life of an aging slugger.

Vlad Working on Deal with Orioles

UPDATE (1/22/2011 at 4:50 p.m.):  SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Orioles and Vlad Guerrero haven't spoken in two weeks.  Perhaps a deal is further off than Bowden's report implied.

Original Post (1/22/2011 at 11:54 a.m.):  According to Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio, the Orioles are closing in on signing Vladmir Guerrero to "humbling" one year contract.  With Manny and Damon signing last night with the Rays, you had to figure this would happen soon.  Guerrero is the last of the name brand free agents still remaining on the market, and there are only so many chairs left remaining.  The Orioles and Angels seem like the last logical landing spots for the aging slugger, although neither of them are ideal situations. 

With Napoli and Rivera having been traded to the Blue Jays, the Angels may have an opening at their DH spot.  I stress the word "may" because that really depends on what they decide to do with CF Peter Bourjos.  If the Angels decide to leave Bourjos in CF and put newly acquired Vernon Wells in LF, this would allow them to shift the defensively challenged Bobby Abreu from LF to DH.  In this case, the Angels would not appear to have an opening for Vlad.  Now, if the Angels decided to bench the light hitting, defensively oriented Bourjos, they could install Wells in CF, while leaving Abreu in LF and Hunter in RF.  Then, there might be an opening for Vlad at DH.  The latter option seems rather remote considering the Angels recent focus on playing defensively oriented players at key positions. 

As for the Orioles, they already have a pretty solid hitter encumbering the DH slot in Luke Scott.  If the O's pull off the deal to bring in Vlad as their DH, they would likely have to either move Scott to another position, or make a follow-up trade.  Currently, the Orioles have the recently signed Derrek Lee holding down first base, so Scott won't be moved there.  In left field, the young, promising Felix Pie currently has the position.  Pie has been slightly below average both offensively and defensively in his two years with the Orioles, so the Scott could take over in left if they think he's up to the task defensively.  Still, I have trouble believing the Orioles would be willing to stunt the development of a 26 year old outfielder in favor of a 32 year old OF/DH type that's a year away from free agency.  Considering the Orioles attempts to trade Scott at both of last year's trading deadlines, it wouldn't surprise me to see them try to reopen discussions within the next couple of weeks.  The Orioles won't get a huge haul in return for Scott, but they should be able to get at least a B-/C+ prospect in return.

Based on Manny Ramirez's recent one year $2M contract with the Rays, I'm going to predict Vlad signs a comparable deal with the Orioles within the next five to seven days.  Guerrero, 35, used an incredibly strong first half to propel him to a .360 wOBA with 29 home runs, and 2.6 WAR in 2010.

Sanity Returns...but Only for a Second...

It appears that Ron Washington's sanity has returned.  Vladmir Guerrero has been removed from the Rangers starting lineup, and will be replaced by David Murphy.  As I discussed earlier, Vlad gives the Rangers a slight advantage offensively (over Murphy), but that advantage is completely erased (and then some) by his complete inability to field his position.  It appears that Washington's return to sanity appears to be short lived:

"If we come back here for Games 6 and 7, I'm going to play Guerrero a game here too," Washington said. "We're here because of Vlad. So I'm supposed to play two games in San Francisco and not let him touch the field? It won't happen."

Well, it appears that Washington is not only insane, but also a bit delusional.  Guerrero was certainly a big reason for the Rangers making the playoffs, but he's far from being the reason they're "here".  If anyone is the reason the Rangers are in their current position, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Perez, Cliff Lee, and Colby Lewis are all better examples.  Plus, it's not like he's been lighting up the world in the playoffs where his OPS is .612 in 49 at bats. 

To answer Washington's question, though, the answer is yes.  You are supposed to play games 6 and 7 in San Francisco, and not let him touch the field--not even for a second.  Guerrero is still an above average hitter, but he's below average in every other facet of the game.  The best strategy to winning in a best of seven series is to put your best players on the field at all times.  Allowing Vlad Guerrero to play any position other than DH compromises the Rangers ability to put their best team on the field.  As the manager, Washington has the right to play Guerrero in RF, but at his own peril.  

Vlad and Ron's Excellent Adventure

A lot has been made about Ron Washington’s decision play the defensively challenged Vladmir Guerrero, rather than the defensively oriented David Murphy, in RF during the World Series games played in San Francisco--and rightly so.  Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra pokes a little fun at this situation, but he really hits the mark:  

“I was uneasy with Vlad Guerrero playing right field before Game 1. Afterwards? Ye Gods, don’t let this happen again, Ron Washington. Vlad was hell on wheels in the outfield last night. And not round wheels. Square, stone wheels like something you’d see on the Flintstones…Beyond those plays he just looked slow and kind of sad. Misplayed hops. Bobbled balls. Jogging into the corner. I started making my usual Fred Sanford jokes during the live chat and people started defending Fred Sanford from such a vile association.”

Did Vlad really look that bad out there?  Oh yes.  Yes he did.  Let’s put it this way.  If I hadn’t known he’d been playing right field for the better part of his 14+ year major league career, I would’ve thought he’d never played the position before.  Luckily for the Rangers, his defense wasn’t the difference between winning and losing Game 1, but it certainly contributed.  

So should we really be surprised with his performance in the field last night?  No.  Vlad has started a combined total of 17 games in RF since the start of the 2009 season.  Yes, folks--17 games.  At what position did he start during the remaining 235 games he played over those two seasons?  Designated Hitter.  Essentially, his managers looked at him and said, “You know, you’re bat is still pretty good, but you’re a butcher in the field.  Why don’t you just focus on the one thing you’re still (reasonably) good at?”  For some reason, Ron Washington has decided to change his strategy (to limit Vlad’s ability to hurt his team defensively) now.  And what a better time to do it?  Am I right?  First off, it’s the World Series, so it’s not like anything is really on the line here.  Secondly, it’s not like AT&T Park’s right field isn’t one of the largest and most difficult to play in baseball.  I’m sure you could throw my 75 year old grandmother out there, and she’d be just fine. 

Perhaps, I’m going a little overboard on the sarcasm here, but isn’t it at least a little bit deserved?  This was a terrible move.  What’s worse is that he’s going to reprise the move tonight!  For what?  A tiny (and I do mean tiny) advantage offensively?  Vlad and his potential replacement, David Murphy, weren’t really all that far apart offensively this past season.  Vlad put up a .360 wOBA (+20.2 wRAA) in 152 games, while Murphy put up a .358 wOBA (+14.4 wRAA) in 138 games.  Murphy also proved yet again that he could play both corner outfield positions (and center in a pinch) at a league average level, while Vlad Guerrero embarrassed himself in limited outings.  Whatever small advantage the Rangers are getting offensively from Guerrero, they’re losing it back in spades defensively.  For the sake of Ranger fans, I hope someone in the Ranger clubhouse or front office pulls Washington aside, and convinces him to make the switch prior to the start of Game 2.  It could be the difference between going back to Texas tied or down 2-0.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer and Fangraph’s Dave Cameron also put a great spin on the Vlad/Murphy situation.  Check it out.