Volquez Turns Down Long-Term Deal

The Cincinnati Reds had an incredibly busy winter inking Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto to long-term deals that will keep the young core together through 2013.  They also tried locking up 27-year old starting pitcher Edinson Volquez to a long-term deal, but as Mark Sheldon of mlb.com reports, their attempts were denied.

"They were offering me a four-year contract, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I felt it wasn't right for me," Volquez told the Dominican publication El Caribe in a recent interview. "I talked to the lawyer and the general manager of the team and we all agreed on only one season."

(snip)

"They were offering me a four-year contract, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I felt it wasn't right for me," Volquez told the Dominican publication El Caribe in a recent interview. "I talked to the lawyer and the general manager of the team and we all agreed on only one season." 

While it's definitely a risky move for Volquez to leave all of that guaranteed money on the table, it's probably the right move at this time.   If he was to sign an extension right now, it'd be based on last year's inconsistent performance, and not the kind of dominant performance he's shown flashes of exhibiting during his three seasons with the Reds.  While a new deal on par with Cueto's four year $27M would provide tremendous security, it would likely come at the cost of a far more lucrative deal down the road.  Considering he's still three years away from free agency, he has plenty of time to show the Reds (and the baseball world) that he can recapture his 2008 form.  If he can, more power to him.  If he doesn't?  Well, he could be looking back at this day wondering if he made a major mistake. 

Volquez is only 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and has likely not fully recovered from the procedure.  His command is very inconsistent, and he still walks far too many batters (5.03 per nine innings), both of which common occurrences during the first few months after returning from the procedure.  While pitchers typically improve quality in both of these areas during their second season back, command and control has been an ongoing problem for Volquez.  As a result, he'll need to show he can make big strides in these areas going forward.  If he can't harness his control, it's unlikely he'll ever reach his potential of being either a true ace or quality number two starter.

Next season, Volquez will make $1.625M, and will have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility after that before becoming eligible for free agency.  He went 4-3 with a 4.00 FIP and a 67/35 K/BB ratio in 62-2/3 innings in 2010.

Reds Considering Long-Term Extension with Volquez

The Reds busy winter continues.  According to Jon Fay of the Cincinnati Inquirer, the team has entered into long-term contract discussions with right handed power pitcher Edinson Volquez. 

“We’re looking at both — one-year and multi-year,” Walt Jocketty said. “We’re hopeful that we’ll get something done.”

Volquez submitted a salary of $2 million when numbers were exchanged. The Reds countered at $1.3 million.

Volquez is a pretty unique case.  After being obtained in the trade that sent Josh Hamilton to Texas, Volquez put together a pretty impressive 2008 season going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 9.46 K/9, and 4.2 fWAR in 196 innings.  While his walk rate was unbelievably high (4.27 walks per nine innings), and his 8.0% HR/FB rate seemed unsustainable for a pitcher that makes half of his starts at Great American Ballpark, he showed flashes of the ace quality stuff many scouts had raved about for years. 

After making nine starts in 2009, his fortunes changed.  Over the last two seasons, he missed significant time due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.  When he's pitched, he's shown inconsistent command and a penchant for allowing home runs in bunches.  Still, he's shown flashes of brilliance that gives the Reds brass hope that he'll regain the dominance that he showed during the 2008 season.  

Volquez is eligible for arbitration for the first time this year, so the Reds can afford to be patient.  Considering his history with command issues and injuries, it's smarter for the Reds to go year-to-year with an option to re-open long-term discussions at some point in the future.  While the reward for locking up Volquez is high, so is the risk.  The Reds would be wise to wait another year to see if he can not only tame his command issues, but also regain some of the dominant form he showed in 2008.

Cueto Gets Four Year Extention from Reds

This is turning out to be a very busy winter for the Reds.  In December, they signed Jay Bruce to a six year $51M extension.  Then, on Sunday, they came to terms with MVP Joey Votto on a three year extension worth $38M.  Now, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, the Reds and starting pitcher Johnny Cueto appear to have come to terms on a four year extension that will pay him $27M. By signing Cueto for four years, the Reds have not only bought out all three of his arbitration seasons, but also his first year of free agency. 

Cueto, 24, has an impressive four pitch repertoire that features a rising four-seam fastball that sits at 91-95 MPH, and touches 96-97; a hard breaking slider; a solid cutter; and a tumbling plus-change that has occasionally drawn comparisons to Pedro Martinez's change.  He induces whiffs at an above average rate (9.9% in 2010), but that's yet to translate into consistent strikeout totals.  As he continues to develop and mature, that trend should improve over time.  While his walk rate and control are still a work in progress, both have greatly improved and still within the acceptable range.  Last season, Cueto benefited from a lower than expected HR/FB rate of 8.6% (versus a 12.5% baseline).  Considering the fact he pitches in the launching pad also known as Great American Ballpark, it wouldn't surprise me to see his HR/FB ratio regress back toward the mean next season.  Even with a higher home run rate in 2011, Cueto should be able to cover that increase by improving his strikeout and walk rates.

Currently, Cueto's true talent level is around 2.5-3.0 WAR.  Assuming he continues to develop as planned, he should end up becoming a 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher (a solid number two or three starter) by the end of his extension.  If that's the case, the Reds will end up cleaning up on this deal.

Last season, Cueto produced a 12-7 record with a 3.97 FIP, 6.62 K/9, 2.46 K/BB, and 2.8 fWAR in 186 innings.

Votto Contract Details

Well, if you (and if you by you, I mean Josh) hated the contract Joey Votto signed with the Reds the other day, you're really going to hate it now.  John Fay of the Cincinnati Inquirer has the details on the deal.

"First here are the numbers...$5.5 million salary in 2011, $9.5 million salary in 2012 and $17 million salary in 2013...Signing bonus of $6 million. He gets $2.5 million now, $1.5 million in 2012 and $2 million in 2014. Note the $17 million salary with the bonus of $2 million in 2014. That’s basically a $19 million salary for the 2013 season. So adding years would have likely cost at least $20 million per. That’s very frightening territory for the Reds.  I’ve had an insider tell me that they can’t afford a $20 million player."

Yes, you read that correctly.  The Reds will essentially be paying Joey Votto $19M in 2013, if you figure his compensation the way Fay does.  This explains why the Reds were fine with the idea of only buying out his arbitration seasons, and not his first few years of free agency.  The Reds simply could not afford to do so.  Unless the Reds see an unexpected influx of revenue, it looks like Joey Votto's days in Cincinnati are numbered. 

Reds Buy Out Votto's Arbitration Years

According to Mark Sheldon of mlb.com, the Reds and Joey Votto have come to terms on a three year $38M contract extension.  As with all contracts, the deal will be finalized on Monday or Tuesday pending the outcome of his physical.

The contract length surprises me a bit.  Typically in deals like these, the team tries to buyout not only the remaining arbitration seasons, but also the player's first two or three years of free agency.  Votto's contract only covers his arbitration seasons, which means he'll still become a free agent after the 2013 season.  So what's the upside for the Reds in this situation?  Well, by signing him for three years now, they can control his annual salary.  If they were to allow him to go year-to-year via the arbitration process, he would stand to make significantly more money, especially if his performance remains at his 2009 and 2010 levels.  Drew Silva of Hardball Talk compared Votto's situation Ryan Howard's in 2008.

"Ryan Howard was awarded a record $10 million in his first arbitration case back in 2008 and Votto might have topped that if the process went to a hearing this offseason."

I think there's a lot of truth to that statement.   Let's just pretend for a moment that Votto matched Howard's $10M contract in his first year of arbitration.  This would have a huge effect on his contracts for the 2012 and 2013 season.  I don't think it's irrational to think that Votto could have made as much as $45-50M over the next three seasons if he'd chosen that route.  While $7-12M over three years might not sound like a lot of money in baseball terms, for a small market team like the Reds, it's huge.  If this is the case, the Reds received a pretty solid bargain with this contract. 

So what's the upside for Votto?  Well, first of all, he gets a pretty sweet contract that will provide him with the security he desires.  Secondly, he still gets to become a free agent at age-30, which means that he'll be in a great position to negotiate a massive contract.  Assuming the recent contract trends for top end free agents holds, Votto should have no problem pulling down a contract for at least six or seven years with an average annual salary of $20-25M.   Obviously, a contract of that magnitude would price the Reds out of being serious contenders to retain his services. 

What would have happened if Votto's contract was for six years instead of three?  Well, for starters, he would probably earn substantially less during his three "free agent years" than he would have under his current scenario.  Typically, deals that buy out free agent seasons, tend to be team friendly, not player friendly.  Second of all, he wouldn't have become a free agent until after he'd turned 33 years old.  Assuming he followed a typical aging pattern, Votto would likely have already started his decline by the time he reached free agency.  This would limit his ability to maximize his value both in terms of contract length and average annual salary.  He'd still probably get a nice contract, but it would likely only be for three or four years at a somewhat reduced salary.  The Reds would likely allow him to leave as a free agent, with some other team signing him to a contract that covered his declining years.   

Votto's new deal looks like a real winner from his end, and decent (albeit imperfect) one from the Reds point of view.  Votto is the reigning NL MVP.  In 2010, he posted a .439 wOBA, 37 home runs, 1.6 UZR, and 7.4 wins above the replacement level in 2010.

Renteria Tricks Reds into Overpaying

According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, Edgar Renteria has found a new home.

The Cincinnati Reds will announce the signing of shortstop Edgar Renteria to a one-year contract Thursday afternoon, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.

The deal could be worth as much as $3 million with an incentive package.

Really?  $3M?  For Edgar Renteria?  The same Renteria that put up a triple slash line of .261/.312/.356 and 1.6 WAR in 262 games?  Yes, apparently that one.

After winning the World Series MVP, the Giants offered Renteria a one year $1M contract, which he described as "a total disrespect".  I'm not really sure what he was expecting.  He's a 35 year old shortstop with replacement level player offensive skills.  He doesn't take walks, hit for power, or run the bases particularly well.  Yes, he won the World Series MVP, but that really doesn't mean anything.  It was five games.  Even the worst offensive player can hit well over a five game period--yes, even if the five game sample is in the World Series.  Renteria proved that in 2010.  Such is the mirage of small sample sizes. 

Somehow, Renteria has fooled some poor sap of a GM into believing he'll actually be worth $3M next season.  Surprisingly, that "poor sap of a GM" is Walt Jocketty who typically is a pretty solid judge of talent.  Nobody's perfect, I guess. 

I'm not sure why the Reds didn't opt to go into 2011 with 28 year old Paul Janish as their starting shortstop.  He's younger, a lot cheaper, and has the same mediocre skill set as Renteria.  I can't help but think they could have spent the $2.5M they would've saved by going with Janish over Renteria a little more effectively.  For a small market club like the Reds, they need to draw value from every available resource.

Reds Sign Jay Bruce to Extension

Jerry Crasnick reports that the Reds and Jay Bruce have come to terms on a 6 year $51M contract extension with an option for a seventh year.  If the option is exercised, the deal’s total value would max out at $63M.*  This contract buys out each of Bruce’s three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

* Special note to the Colorado Rockies.  Before you sign Carlos Gonzalez to a ridiculous contract, please take a look at what the Reds did with Jay Bruce.  It’s smart, team friendly, and locks one of their best players up through his age-30 season.

After two years of disappointing performance, Bruce broke out in a big way in 2010 hitting .281/.353/.493 (.363 wOBA), while providing stellar defense in right field (+20.2 UZR, +17 DRS).  He also finished the season as the National League’s twelfth most valuable player, per Fangraphs WAR, providing 5.3 wins above the replacement level.  That’s pretty impressive for a 23 year old.  Most players his age are still playing in A and AA ball.

Bruce is going into his age-24 season, so far more likely to improve than not.  As he matures, we can expect him to not only improve his plate discipline, but also take greater advantage of playing half of his games in the home run friendly environment known as Great American Ballpark.  If 2010 is any indication, Bruce should be an offensive and defensive force for the next several years. 

I really like this move by the Reds.  The Reds can rest easy knowing they’ve locked up Bruce to a contract that covers his most productive seasons.  When the contract ends, he’ll likely have priced himself out of the Reds budget.  That’s ok though.  The Reds can always let some other team overpay him for his decline years. 

Dont(rell) Call it a Comeback

Earlier today, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported that the Reds have come to terms on a minor league contract with former All-Star pitcher Dontrell Willis.  Honestly, it's hard to believe that Willis has fallen so far so quickly.  It seems like just yesterday that he was called up to the Marlins (2003).  Replacing the injured AJ Burnett, Willis bolted out of the gate going 14-6 with a 3.30 ERA and an 8.0 K/9 rate.  His efforts not only earned him Rookie of the Year Honors (beating out the likes of Jose Reyes, Brandon Webb, Miguel Cabrera, and Brad Lidge), but also helped his team win their second championship in seven seasons.  In 2005, Willis put together his best season going 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA, five shutouts, and a 3.09 K/BB ratio.   In the Cy Young race, he picked up 11 of the 32 first place votes, but finished a close second to Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter.  That was the high point of Willis's career.

In 2006, Willis started showing signs of decline.  He started seeing sharp increases in hit batsmen, walk rate, wild pitches, and home run rate.  His fastball, which was so effective in 2005 (worth 44.1 runs), soon became a liability by 2007 (worth -20.6 runs).*  His secondary pitches, in particular his change-up, also lost considerable value (worth -8.6 runs in 2007).  The Marlins, seeing the writing on the wall, started looking to move the the lefthander.  In a move to rebuild the franchise, the Marlins packaged Willis with All-Star Miguel Cabrera, and traded him to the Detroit Tigers for six prospects that included Andrew Miller (since released) and Cameron Maybin (since traded).  Willis was essentially a poison pill.  The Tigers knew they wouldn't have a chance of acquiring Cabrera if they didn't take him on as a project.  Considering Willis's success in the not so distant past, the Tigers bit the bullet.  In a shocking (and ill advised) move, they signed Willis to a 3 year $30M contract prior to the 2008 season.

*This is astonishing.  His fastball went from being one of the most effective pitches to one of the least effective pitches in baseball.  He lost 64.7 runs worth of value in two years.  I'm not even sure how this is possible.  If anyone knows of any other pitcher that's seen such a huge swing in value, please let me know.  

Willis's time with the Tigers could best be described as a disaster.  His once shaky control completely unraveled.  Like Mark Wohlers and Rick Ankiel before him, Willis seemed incapable of throwing strikes.  From 2008-2010, Willis appeared in 30 games (27 starts), went 3-9 with a 6.86 ERA, walked 8.7 batters per nine innings, hit seven batters, threw 14 wild pitches, and gave up 14 home runs in 123-1/3 innings.  At one point, things got so bad for Willis the Tigers placed him on the disabled list with an acute anxiety disorder, a claim Willis denied on multiple occasions. 

The Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Giants all gave Willis a shot, hoping to find lightning in a bottle.  In the end, all of the teams released him.  Now, the Reds have lined up to give Willis a shot.  Will it work out?  Probably not, but it doesn't hurt to give him a shot.  Willis is only 29 years old.  If his control can be harnessed, there's a shot (albeit small) that he can be an effective major league pitcher.  He's signed to a minor league deal, making him a low risk, high reward situation if he beat the odds and panned out.  That said, this probably Willis's last shot at the major leagues.  I wish him well.  

Bronson Arroyo to Get a New Deal?

Cornrows + Bronson Arroyo = Unintentional Comedy

Ken Rosenthal has some news on the Bronson Arroyo’s contract situation:

“Look for the Reds, who recently exercised right-hander Bronson Arroyo’s club option, to complete a two-year extension with the pitcher this week. Including the option, which is believed to be worth $13 million, the value of the deal over three years is expected to be between $36 million and $39 million.”

To be honest, I’m not terribly impressed by this move for the Reds.  Actually, I take that back.  I don’t dislike the Reds’ move to pick up Arroyo’s option for 2011.  With the pitching free agent market being pretty shallow this year (outside of Cliff Lee), bringing back Arroyo at $13M for next season looks like a pretty safe bet—especially for a serious playoff contender.  It’s not a great move, but since it’s only for one season, it’s acceptable.  Plus, it beats declining his option, losing him to another team, and having to sign a lesser player to take his spot in the rotation.

That said, I’m really not impressed with the idea of the Reds signing Arroyo to a two year extension that covers 2012 and 2013.  Looking at his last two seasons, does he really look like a pitcher that deserves what essentially amounts to a three year $39M extension?  I don’t think so. 

Arroyo is going into his age-34 season with all of his performance indicators trending in the wrong direction.  He’s outperformed his FIP and xFIP by nearly 20% in each of the last two seasons, which means his performance will likely to regress to the mean.  Between 2008 and 2010, his contact rate jumped nearly 4%, while his swinging strike rate declined by about 1.5%.  His K/9 rate dropped from being consistently around 7.0 K/9 to 5.0 K/9 without any corresponding drop in walk rate.  Furthermore, over the past two seasons, Arroyo posted BABIPs (.270 and .246) that were significantly below the expected statistical norms (.290-.310).* While he posted batted ball rates that will partially support his lower than average BABIP, I find it hard to believe that he’ll be able to maintain his better than average line drive rate.  Pitchers that pitch to contact, and have an average fastball velocity around 88 MPH typically give up a high rate of line drives.  Arroyo is no different.  I expect both his line drive rate and BABIP to regress to the mean in 2011.

* I crunched some numbers and found that Arroyo hadn’t benefited from a great deal of luck on balls in play.  Based on his batted ball statistics, I found that Arroyo gave up just as many hits (214) as he was expected to give up in 2009.  In 2010, he gave up only nine fewer hits than expected; this would’ve resulted in a BABIP of .258, which is still significantly below the statistical norm.

Lastly, Arroyo hasn’t exactly been a valuable commodity over the past couple of seasons.  The last time he provided at least $13M in value was in 2006--his age-29 season.  In fact, Arroyo has provided a combined $14.5M in value (3.4 WAR) over the past two seasons.  Considering his age and rate of regression, just picking up his 2011 option for $13M appears to be moderately risky.  Committing three years and $39M to a pitcher that’s a 1.5-2.0 WAR player right now seems borderline insane because his contract presupposes his performance will not continue to decline.  If he continues to decline at a rate of 0.5 WAR per season, the Reds could have a very expensive middle reliever on their hands come 2013.