Angels, Weaver Discussing Extension

Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles reports that the Angels have opened up discussions with ace Jered Weaver regarding a long-term contract extension.  

Weaver, 28, is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility.  When arbitration figures were exchanged last week, Weaver reportedly requested $8.8M, while the Angels countered with $7.365M.  Weaver made $4.63M in 2010.  With arbitration hearings occurring during mid-to-late February, the two sides don't have a lot of time to come to a multiyear agreement.  If Weaver and the Angels can't agree to terms before the hearings begin, negotiations will likely be tabled until either the All-Star break or next offseason.

It's important to note that Weaver's agent is the one and only Scott Boras.  As I've mentioned a few times before, Boras rarely allows his clients to agree to a contract that buys out arbitration and free agent seasons.  Of course, that's not to say he hasn't made exceptions.  Carlos Gonzalez's seven year $80M deal with Rockies last month is an example of the occasional exception Boras has made.  Typically, though, when he makes such an exception, it's because the team is willing to surrender a significant portion of their leverage to sign the player.  Unless the Angels are willing to do that, the prospects of a long-term deal seem unlikely. 

Jered Weaver finished the 2010 season with a 13-12 record, 3.06 FIP, 9.35 K/9, 4.31 K/BB, and 5.9 WAR.

Prospect Lists and Organizational Rankings

For those of you who are prospect geeks, today was a pretty exciting day.  MLB.com released their list of Top 50 prospects, and ESPN's Keith Law released his organizational rankings. 

Starting out with the mlb.com list, Angels outfield prospect Mike Trout takes the top spot.  Trout has tremendous upside, and looks to be a true five tool prospect.  With blazing speed, good power to the gaps, and excellent defensive instincts, Trout has all of the makings of a star.  At 19, he still has quite a bit of development remaining, but it wold not surprise me in the least two see him in the majors at some point during the 2012 season.   Rounding out the top five are SP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays), OF Bryce Harper (Nationals), OF Dominic Brown (Phillies), and 2B/OF Dustin Ackley (Mariners).   

In Keith Law's organizational rankings, the Kansas City Royals take the top spot.  This is such a non-surprise, that it's almost anti-climactic.  As I mentioned in my post on the Royals farm system a couple of weeks ago, the Royals have three top hitting prospects in Mike Moustakis, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Meyers, and a plethora of top pitching prospects including Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, and John Lamb (among others).  To say that the farm system is stacked is an understatement of mass proportions.  Rounding out the top five are the pitching rich Tampa Bay Rays, the Atlanta Braves, the Toronto Blue Jays, and (surprisingly) the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Yankees Sign Bartolo Colon...Owners of NYC Are White Castle Restaurants Rejoice!

The Yankees finally have the starting pitcher they've been looking for.  Well, not really, but they did sign one of note.  According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Yankees have signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league contract. 

I think Corrye summed it up best when he texted:  "So apparently Fernando Valenzuela wasn't available..."  He has a  point.  After all, what could the Yankees possibly want from a 37 year old pitcher that's produced a 5.02 FIP and 2.3 WAR in 257 innings over the past five seasons?  What possible value could they get from a washed up pitcher?

In reality, they're probably not expecting a whole lot.  As it currently stands, the Yankees have a pretty shallow rotation with Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre filling the back end.  Signing Colon is a move to add depth.  In all likelihood, they'll stash him in AAA until someone either gets hurt, or proves to be ineffective.  Considering Colon's low salary (maxes out at $900K if he makes the club out of Spring Training), he poses absolutely no risk to the Yankees.  If he doesn't work out for the Yankees, it's no big deal.  $900K is a drop in the bucket for a team whose payroll typically tops $200M.  If he does provide some value, it's a huge win for the Yankees.  Granted, that scenario is pretty unlikely, but it's still possible.

When you look at the signing from all of the angles, the Yankees really can't lose.

Vlad's Fantasy Land...Population? One

Does anyone want a good laugh?  Good.  Because you're about to get one.

According to Ken Rosenthal, Vlad Guerrero has backed away from his demands for a two year $16M contract.  That's probably a smart move considering it's January, he's 36, and a designated hitter.  Actually, let me rephrase that.  It's definitely a smart move, and it's one he should've made around the start of the New Year.  Still, better late than never. 

So what kind of deal does he have in mind now?  If you said, one year at $8M, you'd not only be correct, but also probably be living in the same fantasy world that Vlad is living in right now.  There is absolutely no way he's ever going to see that kind of money--at least not this offseason.   In a way, Vlad's situation is eerily reminiscent of the situation many American home sellers went through during the first eighteen months of the real estate market crash.  Like the American home seller, he set his price based on information that no longer applied, and then refused to accept the fact that his value was significantly lower than he'd anticipated.  Once he finally realized it, it was too late--and then he didn't cut his price far enough to attract interested buyers!

As far as I can tell, Guerrero has exactly two viable suitors right now.  The Orioles and the Angels.  The Orioles indicated yesterday that they have limited funds remaining to sign free agents.  Unless Vlad reduces his price again, it's unlikely he signs with them.  The Angels appear to have a need at DH now that they've traded away Mike Napoli, but they recently took on $81M of the remaining $86M of Vernon Wells's contract.  Under normal circumstances, I would say that would preclude the Angels from signing Vlad.  But, if they're willing to take on Wells and his ridiculous contract, what's adding a few million more to the payroll.  Right?

As I mentioned the other day, Vlad is in for a rude awakening.  I see him signing for a Manny Ramirez type deal, or possibly even one less than that.   

Must Click Link: Voros McCracken.

I read a lot of baseball articles, but very rarely do I read one that blows my mind.  Today, I was lucky enough to come across such an article. 

Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports wrote an outstanding piece on legendary baseball statistician Voros McCracken.  For those of you who are stat geeks like me, you already who McCracken is.  For those of don't know, McCracken is the man who created the theory behind Defense Independent Pitching (or DIPS)*, which changed the way we (as fans, analysts, scouts, etc.) view pitching and defense.  The DIPS theory stated that pitchers have control over three outcomes:  strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.  Everything else was largely reliant on the quality of the defense behind him and blind luck. 

* His efforts gave rise to the development of multiple important statistics that we regularly use in our baseball discussions, analysis, and search.  BABIP, FIP, HR/FB ratio, and many others all came about because of his research.   

He came up with his theory when he noticed that while an individual pitcher's batted ball rates remained static from year-to-year, the batting average he allowed on balls in play (BABIP) was highly variable.  In certain circumstances, it could swing as many as 70-80 points in a single year.  Additionally, he found that higher quality pitchers didn't tend to produce better BABIPs as a result.  At the time he proposed his theory (in an obscure online newsgroup), most people scoffed at the idea.  They thought it was absolutely crazy.  Over the next couple of years, numerous well respected baseball statisticians including Bill James and the folks at Baseball Prospectus tried to disprove his theory.  While a few of them were able to poke a couple very small holes into his theory, McCracken's work remained largely intact. 

*  For example, in 1999 Pedro Martinez produced one of the highest BABIPs in baseball at .323.  The very next season, his BABIP was .236.

While Passan's article takes a large look at the impact of McCracken's theoretical work, he spends much time discussing the man's life both before and after his groundbreaking theory changed baseball forever.  McCracken has lived a particularly sad and fascinating life.  He's suffered from depression, lived paycheck to paycheck, and has struggled to find a job within the game of baseball since he left his job with the Boston Red Sox.  Craig Calcaterra said it best in his post earlier today, "just because you're a genius (it) doesn't mean that everything works out well for you."  I strongly urge you read the whole piece even if you're oriented more towards the anti-stat or casual fan sides. 

Jeter to Centerfield? Cashman says...maybe.

Yankee centerfielders. You know their names: DiMaggio, Mantle, Williams, and now....Derek Jeter?

Well if you ask Yankee GM Brian Cashman the idea doesn't sound that far fetched. According to ESPN.com, Cashman told WFAN radio personality John Francesa that should the necessity ever arise for Jeter to move from SS, that centerfield would be an excellent position.

Many question Jeter's ability to play such a physically demanding position for the next four years. Even though he's coming off another Gold Glove season (Jeter has five for his career) anyone who's ever looked at FanGraphs knows Ozzie Smith he ain't. At 36 it's already quite obvious that Jeter's skills and range continue to diminish and it is very doubtful that he'll stay at shortstop for the rest of his career. A move to a less taxing position could also be beneficial to his productivity at the plate as well.

A close analysis of the options demonstrates that center or left field is a decent fit. With A-Rod at third and Texiera at first for the next several years those positions are not options. Second base is possible only if the Yankees don't re-sign Cano to a long term deal, and the chances of that happening are about as likely as me winning Dancing With the Stars. Swisher is locked up in right field for at least another two years and as long as he repeats similar numbers to the '09 and '10 seasons it's likely the Yankees re-sign Swish as well. That leaves Brett Gardner in left and Curtis Granderson in center. In all honesty either one of those positions are possibilities for Jeter although I think it's a little liklier that Jeter would be in left rather than center. It is a somewhat less taxing and Granderson is without question a very good centerfielder defensively so why bump him.

Another option that no one discusses is moving Jeter to DH. This is undoubtedly Posada's last year and it's clear he will be DHing most of the season. Why not move Jeter into that slot once Posada retires? I could see it happening, however the chances aren't great only because Captain Jete is the type of person that wants to contribute in every facet of the game, not just at the plate. Although Jeter is a team guy, I feel he has too much pride to give up a defensive position for just a bat.

The whole thing depends on how bad Jeter becomes defensively, what the Yankees are willing to accept, and what Jeter is willing to do. It's an equation that's not as simple as 2+2=4. The results of moving Jeter to the outfield this late in his career are unknowable. Robin Yount made the transition in the 1980s but it was still in the middle of his career and he won an MVP after the move. That's a once in a generation event that Jeter is not going to imitate. When the day comes for Jeter to make the move to the outfield I just pray it looks more like Ichiro Suzuki moving from right field to center and back, rather than Jose Canseco trying to pitch.

Astros, Rodriguez Agree to Extension

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, the Astros have avoided salary arbitration with starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez by signing him to a three year $34M contract extension.  The contract which will pay him $7M in 2011, $10M in 2012, and $13M in 2013, also includes a $13M vesting option for 2014 with a $2.5M buyout.  The deal will be finalized pending a physical on Thursday.

Rodriguez, 32, was entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, so the Astros bought out his first seasons of arbitration eligibility.  Many expected Rodriguez to be a valuable trade piece at the July 31st trading deadline with teams like the Yankees and Rangers among the teams most likely to be interested.  Assuming the contract gets finalized (and I have no reason to believe it won't), the odds are fairly low that he'll be traded any time soon.  

Rodriguez has been one of baseball's most underrated pitchers for the past three seasons.  According to D.J. Short of NBC Hardball Talk, only ten pitchers have posted a better ERA over the past three seasons than Rodriguez:  Halladay, Wainwright, Hernandez, Lincecum, Santana, Lee, Sabathia, Greinke, Cain, and Lester.  There are a lot of great pitchers on that list.  Rodriguez's three year ERA is 3.36--and yes, it matches up well with his FIP, so it's not a fluke.  Last season, Rodriguez put together another solid season going 11-12 with a 3.50 FIP, 8.22 K/9, 2.62 K/BB, and 3.6 fWAR.  

Napoli on the Move...Again

It looks like Mike Napoli is on the move again.  According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Blue Jays have traded their recently acquired catcher to the Texas Rangers in exchange for relief pitcher Frank Francisco.

I have to admit that I'm a little bit surprised by this trade, but that's mostly because it's rare to see a player traded twice within the same week.  Napoli doesn't seem like the ideal fit in Texas.  Currently, the Rangers already have players encumbered at his natural positions with Yorvit Torrealba at catcher, Mitch Moreland at first base, and Michael Young at DH.  Still, despite the positional roadblock, I don't foresee Napoli having any problems accumulating 500 plate appearances next season.  My best guess is that Napoli will serve as the Rangers version of Victor Martinez:  play first base against lefties, split time at catcher with Torrealba, and occasionally spell Michael Young at DH.  I should note that this definitely ends any chance Vladmir Guerrero had of re-signing with the Rangers.

Other than the positional complication, this trade should benefit Napoli.  The Ballpark at Arlington seems to play into his one natural offensive skill--the ability to hit home runs.  With Napoli going into his age-29 season and moving to a ballpark that heavily favors power hitters, it wouldn't surprise me to see Napoli breach the 30 homer threshold for the first time next season.  Also, moving away from the Angels could help Napoli rediscover the patience and plate discipline skills that dissipated over the course of his tenure in Anaheim.   If he can rediscover his ability to draw walks, he would become a much more bigger offensive threat for the Rangers.

The Blue Jays acquiring Frank Francisco strikes me as being a little bit redundant.  After losing closer Kevin Gregg and lefty set-up man Scott Downs via free agency, understandably the Blue Jays wanted to rebuild their bullpen.  In doing so, they retained Jason Frasor, signed Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch via free agency, and have now traded for Francisco.  While all four pitchers are quality relievers, I can't help but notice they're all right handed.  Personally, I would've thought that if the Blue Jays were going to trade for another relief pitcher, it might have been a lefty.  Then again, that's just me. 

Francisco's role appears to be unclear at the moment.  Initially, there were reports that Octavio Dotel would close for the Blue Jays in 2011.  With Francisco, a former closer, in the mix, I'm not sure that report remains as true today as it did last month.  Francisco has very good stuff, and tends to miss bats at a high rate.  While he walks a few too many batters to ever be an elite level closer, but not enough that he couldn't be effective in the role over the long haul.  My guess is that he'll be given every opportunity to wrestle ninth inning duties away from Dotel during Spring Training and the first part of the season. 

Frank Francisco produced a 3.12 FIP with a 60/18 K/BB ratio, and 1.0 fWAR in 52-2/3 innings.

Nationals Interested in Sizemore, Carmona

According to MASN’s Phil Wood, the Nationals are working on a “number” of trades, and have spoken to the Indians about possibility of trading for Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona.  While I see why the Nationals would be interested in making such a deal, I don’t see how the Indians would benefit, outside of a financial reprieve.

Despite two disappointing, injury riddled seasons, Sizemore is still the Indians best trade chip.  To trade him now, while he’s recovering from microfracture surgery, makes little sense because they’d be trading him at a point where his value is at its lowest point.  At 28, Sizemore has a pretty good chance of fully recovering and recapturing his elite status as a 5-6 WAR player.  If I was the Indians GM, I would give Sizemore an opportunity to prove he’s healthy and productive before engaging in serious trade talks.  While there is, of course, some risk to taking the “wait and see” approach, there’s also tremendous reward.  If he fully recovers and recaptures his status as an elite player, the Indians would be in the position of being able to name their price for Sizemore.  For a struggling small market club with a modest payroll, that’s a great position to be in.*  If Sizemore gets hurt or struggles out of the gate, his value would, obviously, take another hit; thus making a trade even more prohibitive for the Indians.  Still, the potential value gained by waiting is far greater than the potential value lost.  While waiting might be a risk, it’s a smart risk, and one the Indians should take. 

  

* Sizemore also has a very team friendly contract that would help improve his trade value, particularly if he's healthy and productive.  He's due to make $7.5M this season, and the Indians hold an $8.5M option for 2012.

Fausto Carmona enjoyed a bounce back season in 2010 after two dreadful seasons in which he struggled mightily with poor control.  Considering how "pitching poor" the Nationals are right now, it's not difficult to understand why the Nationals are interested in trading for him.  (By the same token, the Indians aren't exactly stacked with pitchers either, and would probably benefit from keeping him around for a few more years.)  At 27, he still has very good stuff, and could recapture his 2007 form if a few things break the right way for him.  He has a three pitch repertoire that features an above average two-seam fastball with heavy sink, an above average slider with good tilt, and a plus change up.  On the negative side, Carmona not only walks a few too many batters, but allows too much contact for my liking.  Still, he induces ground balls at such a high rate that his "negative" traits are almost forgivable.  Additionally, Carmona's contract is pretty favorable.  He has one more guaranteed season, at $6.1M, remaining on the four year $15M he signed prior to the 2008 season, plus options that could extend the deal out to 2014.  Considering the current value of a win (around $5M), the options are extremely team friendly:  2012 at $7M, 2013 at $9M, and 2014 at $12M.  While he is certainly an attractive trade candidate, it almost makes more sense for the Indians to hold on to him considering his age and relatively nominal salary. 

If I were the Indians, I'd stand pat for while.  As I see it the Indians could get substantially more in return for both players if they waited until the July 31st deadline to trade either player.  For starters, pitchers typically bring back more in return at the deadline when fringe playoff caliber teams are scrambling for useful starting pitchers.   Two, for the reasons I've already outlined for Sizemore.  Patience in this case is a virtue worth exercising.

Vlad's Options are Shrinking

The market for Vlad has been eerily quiet all winter.  While I never expected him to be among the most highly sought after free agents, I certainly expected him to be signed by now.  Now, that he's the last remaining big name free agent remaining on the market, reports have finally started coming in fast and furious. 

Today, SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers are out of the running, and the Orioles have "limited funds at this stage" with which to sign him.  At first glance, it seems a little bit surprising that a player who put up a .300/29/115 season would still be trolling the free agent market in search of an acceptable contract at the end of January.  Then, you remember that he's about to turn 36, and that he's completely untrustworthy defensively.  Also, Manny Ramirez, a reasonably close comparable, recently received a one year $2.5M deal from the Rays this past weekend, which probably hurt his value immensely.

It's becoming much more clear to me that Vlad is going to have to settle for a one year deal around $1.0-1.5M with lots of performance based incentives.  Me thinks he shouldn't have pushed his demands for a two year deal for so long.  Otherwise, he might've received a much more favorable contract by now.