Joe Girardi and Evil Empire Agree to be BFF’s for Next Three Years

 

As Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported earlier, Joe Girardi is apparently on the verge of signing a 3 year $9M contract to remain with the Yankees.  This really isn’t really surprising news.  Once the Cubs decided to fill their job with interim manager Mike Quade, that all but put a rubber stamp on Girardi returning.  Seriously, where else was he going to go?  He has a great job with an organization that has seemingly unlimited resources, an unparalleled history, and a legitimate shot of winning the World Series every year.  Unless he felt the Yankees were purposely trying to either disrespect him, or run him out of town, he’d be stupid to leave.  

Vlad and Ron's Excellent Adventure

A lot has been made about Ron Washington’s decision play the defensively challenged Vladmir Guerrero, rather than the defensively oriented David Murphy, in RF during the World Series games played in San Francisco--and rightly so.  Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra pokes a little fun at this situation, but he really hits the mark:  

“I was uneasy with Vlad Guerrero playing right field before Game 1. Afterwards? Ye Gods, don’t let this happen again, Ron Washington. Vlad was hell on wheels in the outfield last night. And not round wheels. Square, stone wheels like something you’d see on the Flintstones…Beyond those plays he just looked slow and kind of sad. Misplayed hops. Bobbled balls. Jogging into the corner. I started making my usual Fred Sanford jokes during the live chat and people started defending Fred Sanford from such a vile association.”

Did Vlad really look that bad out there?  Oh yes.  Yes he did.  Let’s put it this way.  If I hadn’t known he’d been playing right field for the better part of his 14+ year major league career, I would’ve thought he’d never played the position before.  Luckily for the Rangers, his defense wasn’t the difference between winning and losing Game 1, but it certainly contributed.  

So should we really be surprised with his performance in the field last night?  No.  Vlad has started a combined total of 17 games in RF since the start of the 2009 season.  Yes, folks--17 games.  At what position did he start during the remaining 235 games he played over those two seasons?  Designated Hitter.  Essentially, his managers looked at him and said, “You know, you’re bat is still pretty good, but you’re a butcher in the field.  Why don’t you just focus on the one thing you’re still (reasonably) good at?”  For some reason, Ron Washington has decided to change his strategy (to limit Vlad’s ability to hurt his team defensively) now.  And what a better time to do it?  Am I right?  First off, it’s the World Series, so it’s not like anything is really on the line here.  Secondly, it’s not like AT&T Park’s right field isn’t one of the largest and most difficult to play in baseball.  I’m sure you could throw my 75 year old grandmother out there, and she’d be just fine. 

Perhaps, I’m going a little overboard on the sarcasm here, but isn’t it at least a little bit deserved?  This was a terrible move.  What’s worse is that he’s going to reprise the move tonight!  For what?  A tiny (and I do mean tiny) advantage offensively?  Vlad and his potential replacement, David Murphy, weren’t really all that far apart offensively this past season.  Vlad put up a .360 wOBA (+20.2 wRAA) in 152 games, while Murphy put up a .358 wOBA (+14.4 wRAA) in 138 games.  Murphy also proved yet again that he could play both corner outfield positions (and center in a pinch) at a league average level, while Vlad Guerrero embarrassed himself in limited outings.  Whatever small advantage the Rangers are getting offensively from Guerrero, they’re losing it back in spades defensively.  For the sake of Ranger fans, I hope someone in the Ranger clubhouse or front office pulls Washington aside, and convinces him to make the switch prior to the start of Game 2.  It could be the difference between going back to Texas tied or down 2-0.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer and Fangraph’s Dave Cameron also put a great spin on the Vlad/Murphy situation.  Check it out.

Superhero Falls Mortal

 
It was a very rough fifth night for Cliff Lee.  His final line?  4-2/3 innings, 7 R (6 ER) on 8 H, 1 BB, 1 HBP, and 7 K.  Five of those runs came in the fifth inning.  He seemed to be off by just a little all night.  He seemed to be leaving his cutter over the heart of the plate just a little up in the zone.  It looks like even superhero pitchers can have bad nights.  That still doesn't change the fact that I have a giant non-sexual man crush on the guy. 

As for Tim Lincecum, he's exiting the game up 8-4 in the top of the sixth with two outs and runners on first and second.  He leaves after giving up 4 runs, 8 hits, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts in 5-2/3 innings.

So much for one of the great pitching match-ups of all time...

Is Barry Zito the Biggest Contract Bust of All Time?

 
After putting up my post on Barry Zito being left of the Giants' World Series roster, I started thinking.  Is Barry Zito the biggest contract bust of all time?  There have been a lot of contracts signed over the past twenty years (particularly during the 2000-2001 offseason), but rarely has a player with such a high salary been purposely omitted from a postseason roster.  In fact, it's so rare, I can't think of a any other instance.

Being the inquisitive guy that I am, I decided to do a little research to see who was the owner of the all time worst contract.  For this exercise, Barry Zito will be our player of comparison.  Since he's only completed four years of his 7 year $126M contract, I've decided that it's only fair to compare Zito to other players through the first four years of the contract in question.*  As a result, contracts that lasted shorter than four seasons were not included in this sample.  To determine the worst contracts, I researched fifteen contracts that were considered to be epically bad, and analyzed each player's performance versus salary earned.  The metric I used to make my final determination was Salary Dollars per Wins Above Replacement ($/WAR).

*  Now, I should say that I don't believe in judging any contract (no matter how good or bad it might look at the time) until the contract expires.   Too  many things can change from year-to-year that can make a generalized judgment on a contract look foolish.  For example, after the 2007 season, all statistical and anecdotal measures made the J.D. Drew contract look like a total bust.  After the 2010 season, the contract appears to be dead on.

One of the strangest things I noticed in researching this subject was that the contract that was widely considered to be the worst of all time (Mike Hampton's 8 year $121M deal with Colorado) actually wasn't even close.  It wouldn't even be in the top ten of my list.  (Again, I'm only looking at the first four years of the contract).  Without further adieu, here's my list:

 
15.  Jason Giambi - 7 year $120M contract; 17.5 WAR; $2.72M/WAR.  Giambi gets a bad rap for this contract because he was a highly visible player on the most visible team in baseball.  Oh yeah, and he "admitted" to using steroids part way through the contract.  Steroids or not, Giambi was a productive player throughout his deal.  He put up an MVP quality season in 2002, and three All-Star quality seasons in 2003, 2005, and 2006.  If he hadn't missed most of 2004 due to a strange pituitary gland issue, he probably wouldn't even be on this list.

14.  Kevin Brown - 7 year $105M contract; 16.1 WAR; $3.59M/WAR.  Kevin Brown is such an easy target because he cashed in on his big contract at the age of 32.  There was no way he could've ever lived up to this contract, yet somehow managed to put up three Cy Young quality (6.0+ WAR) seasons over the course of his tenure in Hollywood.  Brown gets slammed for two injury riddled seasons in L.A. combined with two average to forgettable seasons with the Yankees.  While Brown may not have been the most efficient (or smartest) signing, he provided enough big seasons to make it acceptable.

13.  Mike Hampton - 8 year $121M contract; 9.4 WAR; $5.13M/WAR.  Mike Hampton was doomed from the start.  Never blessed with tremendous control, Hampton signed with the Colorado Rockies at the height of the offensive era.  After a solid start in 2001, it all went down hill from there.  After a classic Leo Mazzone reclamation project, injuries derailed his career (making only 25 starts between 2005-2008).  This contract is frequently considered to be the worst all time.  Trust me when I say this...there are far worse.


12.  Juan Pierre - 5 year $45M contract; 6.1 WAR; $5.33M/WAR.  You mean players that have little on-base abilities, no power, and poor defensive skills at a defensive position shouldn't be signed to big, multi-year contracts?  This one went so poorly for the Dodgers that they started to find a way to bury him on the bench in year two of the deal.

11.  Denny Neagle - 5 year $55M contract; 4.7 WAR; $6.85M/WAR.  Ah, yes.  Mike Hampton's partner in highway robbery.  Neagle was never quite as good as Hampton, but his performance under Leo Mazzone in Atlanta had propped up his reputation.  As a result, Neagle, an above average pitcher, signed a big deal with the Rockies to be their number two starter.  Unlike with Hampton, Neagle got off to a horrible start, and never got better.  Injuries hit him hard in year three of the contract.  He never threw another pitch after 2003.


10.  Carl Pavano - 4 year $38M contract; 4.8 WAR; $7.92M/WAR.  It should be noted that 3.7 of  Pavano's 4.8 WAR was accumulated in 2009 when he was with the Twins and Indians--not the Yankees.  Yet another pitcher that was perpetually injured.  Starting to see a pattern?


9.  Barry Zito - 7 year $126M contract; 7.4 WAR; $8.31M/WAR.  His contract was a mistake from the start.  Everyone seemed to know it except Brian Sabean.  Zito had been living off his undeserved 2002 Cy Young Award for years.  Zito was a league average pitcher worthy of an $8M contract.  Instead, because of his age, handedness, and pedigree (and Sabean's stupidity), Zito got a monster deal, he'll never live up to.


8.  Mo Vaughn - 6 year $80M contract; 4.4 WAR; $9.95M/WAR.  Mo Vaughn is the quintessential poster child for why you can't trust players with "old man skills" once they turn 30.  Vaughn's career crashed and burned after leaving Beantowne.  Perhaps it was because of steroids.  Perhaps not.  There wasn't testing back then, so we'll never know.  I'm not going to speculate.  His bat speed disappeared.  His batting eye declined.  His defense went from awful to atrocious. 

7.  Albert Belle - 5 year $65M contract; 4.7 WAR; $10.47M/WAR.  Belle was great offensively in his first season as an Oriole (.404 wOBA), but a back injury derailed his career in late 2000.  After two seasons with the O's, his career was over.  This contract has wreaked havoc on the organization ever since.  They haven't had a winning season since before he signed the contract.  That was 13 seasons ago.

6.  Chan Ho Park - 5 year $65M contract; 3.8 WAR; $12.87M/WAR.  Chan Ho Park went from the soft, cushy, pitcher friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, and took his talents to the pinball machine known as the Ballpark at Arlington.  Yeah, that was a smart choice.  Between injuries and awful performance, Park had fallen out of favor by the All-Star break of his first season in Texas.

5.  Darren Dreifort - 5 year $55M contract; 2.6 WAR; $16.77M/WAR.  This has to be one of the least deserved contracts of all time.  Early in his pro career, Dreifort underwent Tommy John surgery, which set back his career a little.  When he returned, he was always decent, but he didn't live up to the promise he flashed every so often.  In hopes of not losing him, the Dodgers (noticing a pattern here?) grossly overpaid for him to return.  What did they get in return?  An inconsistent pitcher with serious shoulder issues.  All in all, they got 16 starts and 60 relief appearances.  Hardly money well spent.

4.  Bobby Higginson - 4 year $36M contract; 1.9 WAR; $18.74M/WAR.   He was a good player, but the Tigers grossly overestimated his abilities based on his ability to drive in runs.  Signing a contract to player with high RBI totals and nothing else is a bad idea.  Driving in runs, contrary to popular belief is NOT a repeatable skill.  The Tigers didn't know this.  The last season of his contract, not so coincidentally, expired after one of the all time terrible seasons--a 43-119 record for the Tigers.

3.  Julio Lugo - 4 year $36M contract; 0.4 WAR; $90.0M/WAR.  The bane of my existence.  Lugo was the fourth shortstop for the Red Sox in four years, and he was easily the worst--and most costly.  He exhibited absolutely none of the characteristics he'd shown prior to signing with the Sox.  He had no plate discipline, no power, and no defensive abilities.  He was absolutely brutal.

2.  Russ Ortiz - 4 years $32M contract; -0.6 WAR; Negative Value.  Another Leo Mazzone reclamation project that turned bad (very bad) once he left Atlanta.  Like with Hampton, Ortiz was blessed neither with the ability to avoid walks, nor long balls.  So taking his skills to Arizona was a bad idea.  The D'Backs eventually ended up releasing Ortiz and eating most of his contract.  Smart move.  A smarter move would've been avoiding Ortiz entirely.

1.  Gary Matthews Jr.  - 5 years $50M contract; -1.1 WAR; Negative Value.  Do you want to talk about undeserved contracts?  Look no further than this one.  Matthews "earned" this contract based on one catch.   That catch is what his entire defensive reputation is based on.  Oddly enough, advanced metrics say he's an atrocious OFer--especially in CF.  Matthews was also coming off of a good offensive season after being decidedly average for his career.  The Angels desperate for offense and an outfielder overpaid for a player that was average at best.  Little did they know his performance would regress at a far faster rate than anyone had expected.  This contract is so bad that Matthews should be ashamed every time he gets paid.

Barry Zito Left Off World Series Roster

 
Game 1 of the World Series kicks off tonight at 7:57 p.m.  Just like the last two playoff series, Barry Zito will be left off of the Giants roster.  Hardball Talk's Aaron Gleeman contributes this to the story:

"There was some speculation that Zito could be added to the World Series roster in place of reliever Guillermo Mota, who went unused in the first two rounds, but apparently manager Bruce Bochy thinks a superfluous right-handed middle reliever is more useful than the veteran left-hander who made $18.5 million this season as part of a seven-year, $126 million deal that runs through 2013...Zito put together a strong first half, going 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA, but fell apart down the stretch with a 1-8 record and 6.80 ERA in his final 10 outings. He also hasn’t pitched since October 2 and Madison Bumgarner has clearly emerged as the Giants’ fourth starter, so aside from perhaps making Zito feel better about himself or making the $126 million seem like slightly less of a disaster there was no real reason to add him."

A couple of things.  First of all, I understand the Giants' apprehension at having Barry Zito on the roster.  As Gleeman pointed out, he was 1-8 with a 6.80 ERA over his last ten starts.  This wasn't just a simple case of bad luck either.  During that run, Zito put up a 32/27 K/BB ratio with a flyball heavy 0.64 GB/FB ratio.  Those are some ugly indicators.  He earned that stat line.  Secondly, I understand their rationale for leaving Zito off of the World Series roster, especially since he was left off of the roster for the first two series.  Starting pitchers are used to pitching on some sort of schedule, and at this point, Zito hasn't pitched in 25 days. 

That said, Bochy has chosen to leave Zito off of the roster in favor of a pitcher (Mota) that he hasn't used this entire postseason.  Just based on value alone, Zito was far more valuable as a starter (2.1 WAR) than Mota was out of the bullpen (0.3 WAR).  Moving Zito to the bullpen at the start of the playoffs would've given the Giants (1) a long reliever to help save the bullpen in blowout situations; (2) added a second left handed pitcher to the bullpen that would given the Giants a platoon advantage against some left handed hitters; and (3) greater balance out of a right handed dominated bullpen.  Furthermore, it's likely that Zito would've been more effective coming out of the bullpen (than as a starter) because he would've been able to focus on throwing his two strongest pitches (fastball and curve), rather than have to worry about pacing himself and mixing pitches. 

Mota, a garden variety right handed relief pitcher, is rotting away on the bullpen pine.  It should be noted that he also has not pitched since October 2nd, mostly because there are better right handed options out of the bullpen.   This leads me to not only wonder about his ability to pitch effectively in the World Series, but also question Bruce Bochy's ability to manage his postseason roster.

So Raul Ibanez's Contract was a Bad Move for the Phillies? I'm Shocked!

 
When Raul Ibanez signed a three year $31.5M contact in December 2008, analysts in the SABR community cried shenanigans--and rightly so.  The Phillies, coming off of a semi-surprising World Series championship, had just committed a significant amount of money to a player entering his age-35 season.  SABR analysts had two primary issues with this signing.  The first was that players entering their age-35 season are usually some state of decline.  This is especially true of players, like Ibanez, who have below average base running skills, and questionable (and this is being kind) defensive skills at a corner outfield position.  The second was that the free agent market clearly shifting away from the old, slow, lumbering power hitting 1B/LF/RF/DH types in favor of younger, athletic, defensive oriented players.  Rather than allow the market to play out, the Phillies jumped on Ibanez by offering him a contract at the 2007 going rate.  Had the Phillies been patient, they probably could've gotten the discount that teams were able to get on comparable players like Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Jason Giambi.   Two years later, it's looking the SABR analysts were right.  After an All-Star quality showing in 2009 (.379 wOBA, +3.9 UZR, and a 3.9 WAR--all the best showings of his career), Ibanez struggled out of the gate and regressed back to his career norms (.341 wOBA, -6.7 UZR, 1.8 WAR).  Obviously, this is bad news for the Phillies considering we can expect similar regression from Ibanez who will be entering his age-37 season in 2011. 

This has created an interesting dilemma for the Phillies.  Right field Jayson Werth will be a free agent this offseason.  Werth is the type of players SABR analysts and new-age front offices love.  He's good, but not great, at everything.  Werth has a very good batting eye (.367 career OBP and 12.3% career walk rate), above average power (.481 career SLG), plus defensive skills (a career +10.3 UZR/150 in the outfield), and above average base running abilities (87.5% career stolen base rate).  Essentially, he's everything that Ibanez isn't.  Seems like an easy decision for the Phillies, right?  Wrong.  The Phillies have one of the top outfield prospects in the game, Dominic Brown.  Brown has been described in some circles as a five tool player with once in a lifetime talent.  While it's likely that the "once in a lifetime talent" remark is a bit over the top, there's no denying his talent.  The Phillies hold him in such high regard that they were willing to empty their farm systems in the Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt trades just to keep from having to give up Brown.  In 2011, Brown will be given every opportunity to take hold of a starting corner outfield position.  As a result, the Phillies will likely fill Werth's impending vacancy with Brown, unless they can find a way to unload Ibanez's $12M salary.  Considering Ibanez's poor showing last season, this is unlikely.

How does Ibanez's contract play into this?  Rob Neyer says it best:

"But this all goes back to the Raul Ibanez contract, which we hated. If the Phillies hadn't signed Ibanez for $31.5 million, they'd have a little more cash available for Werth. If the Phillies hadn't signed Ibanez, they would have the perfect spot for Domonic Brown.

Instead, if they are able to re-sign Werth they'll have to either eat some of Ibanez's salary or make Brown wait another few months for an every-day job.

As usual, the real issue here isn't money. It's flexibility. When the Phillies were foolish enough to commit $31.5 million to Ibanez, they were also committing three years and 1,800 plate appearances to him. Which, even though he's played reasonably well through the first two years and 1,200 plate appearances, just never made much sense."

As usual, Rob is dead on here.  I don't advocate holding a position open for a prospect that's a couple of years away from the majors, no matter how good that player projects to be.  They're called prospects for a reason.  For every "can't miss" prospect that lives up to the hype, there are several who fall below that mark--if they make it to the majors at all.  That said, the Phillies would've been well served had they signed Ibanez (or preferably a player with a better set of skills) to a contract that kept Brown's arrival in mind.  Had they done so, the Phillies would've had enough money (and a position) to sign a 32 year old multi-skilled player that's averaged 5.0 WAR per season since 2008 (Werth).  Instead, they will be stuck with an aging (37 year old), one-dimensional player that's averaged 2.5 WAR per season since 2008 (Ibanez).  Every team has choices, and it appears the Phillies choice to go three years with Ibanez could have long term repercussions.    

And on the Eighth Day God Created Ozzie Guillen...

Ozzie Guillen is the gift that keeps on giving.  There are few personalities in baseball that provide that "Must See TV" moment.  Personally, I think he's a giant ass clown, yet every time he speaks, tweets, or gives an interview, I listen intently.  Today, Craig Calcaterra provides some juicy gossip that he'll be joining Fox Sports as an analyst for the World Series.  This is almost too good to be true!  Someone is actually willing to put their ass on the line in order to give millions Americans the right to watch the train wreck known as Ozzie Guillen on live television?  I just can't believe it.

Apparently, Guillen “will work the pregame and postgame shows with Chris Rose and Eric Karros” and also “join Joe Buck and Tim McCarver as an analyst for late-inning strategy.”  The second part is what I'm most excited about.  I can't wait for the moment where Guillen finally cracks (probably halfway through Game 2), and he calls Tim McCarver "a fucking moron," or Joe Buck "an emotionless automoton."  That will be the first time since Fox won the World Series broadcasting rights that anyone in America actually enjoys listening to their commentary.

Jamie Moyer to Pitch in Winter League

ESPN's Enrique Rojas reported via Twitter that Jamie Moyer, now almost 48 years old, is planning on pitching in Winter Ball.  Perhaps I'm being a little obtuse, but maybe (just maybe) it's time for him to retire.  His season ended when he decided to have Tommy John surgery back in July.  While TJ surgery is a fairly routine these days, pitchers in their 20s only have an 85% chance of a full recovery.  Most pitchers take 12 months to recover, and then spend the next season trying to regain their pre-surgery velocity and command.  (Then there's the case of Francisco Liriano who took three full seasons to regain his pre-surgery form.)  Considering Moyer's advanced age (as evidenced by his most recent photo), the risk of recovery is significantly greater.  Over his previous two seasons, Moyer was worth a combined 0.8 WAR, which means that his true talent level is roughly equivalent to that of a replacement level player.  Clearly, this is not a good omen for Moyer who will need to scratch and claw for his next contract.

At this point, it seems that Moyer's attempt at winter ball is nothing more than a desperate attempt to prove he still has something left in the tank.  I have a ton of respect for the guy.  He's done more with less than just about any pitcher in recent memory.  He's defied the odds; bucked traditional scouting and modern statistical trends; and held off age related regression far longer than the average pitcher.  Sadly, his 25 year career has reached an end.  Everyone seems to have realized this but him.  It's time to hang up the spikes, Jamie.  While you're at it, if you could convince Brett Favre to do the same, we'd all greatly appreciate it.   

The Derek Jeter Problem

He puts the lotion on the skin, or else he gets the hose again.

Derek Jeter invokes many emotions in people.  For Yankee fans and sportwriters, they gush over Jeter's leadership, professionalism, and character.  For Red Sox fans, it's anger, bitterness, jealous, and bile.  For everyone else it's some combination of respect and nausea, depending on the day.  As a Red Sox fan, I can't stand him.  As an objective baseball fan, I see him as a supremely talented, yet somewhat overrated, player who happened to be lucky enough to be drafted by the Yankees.  Most pundits point to his five championships as a rubber stamp for Jeter's greatness.  While I agree Jeter was an integral cog in those great Yankee teams, I see him as a beneficiary of circumstance.  Why?  During the Yankee dynasty of 1996-2000, I strongly believe the Yankees could've been just as good, if not better, with either Alex Rodriguez or Nomar Garciaparra playing SS.  Both players were more talented offensive and defensively than the future captain.  I know that might sound sacrilegious to some, but it's absolutely true.  Using Fangraphs version of Wins Above Replacement, which takes offense, defense, position difficulty, and durability, here's how the Big Three shortstops stack up from 1996-2000.

Rodriguez - 37.4 WAR
Garciaparra - 28.6 WAR*
Jeter - 26.7 WAR     

* It should be noted that Garciaparra only had 93 plate appearances in 1996, and still beat Jeter in WAR over the 1996-2000 period.

I'm not trying to trash Jeter.  I'm really not.  He was a great player.  I'm merely trying to say that Jeter's greatness (at least in terms of his championship pedigree) is not so much a function of his instincts or leadership abilities, but circumstance.  If Nomar and Jeter switched spots, it's very possible we have different views of both players.  In fact, we might be willing to give Nomar a free pass on a lot of those injury riddled seasons that derailed an almost certain Hall of Fame career.  But, I digress, as I'm want to do...

What I really want to discuss is Jeter's pending free agency.  The Yankees face a very interesting, very complicated decision going into the offseason.  On one hand, they have the face of the franchise eligible for free agency.  In recent history, there are only a few player who have been as important and identifiable to their franchises as Jeter has been to the Yankees.  Cal Ripken with the Orioles, Albert Pujols with the Cardinals, and Barry Bonds with the Giants are the others in the last 20 years that come to mind.  That's not a very deep list.  Losing Captain Jete at this point in his career would be a massive public relations hit.  Yankee fans from Newark to Westchester and Scranton to Hartford would riot in the streets, loot electronic stores, and vandalize the sides of buildings with graffiti.  (What was that?  That's the typical day in the life of a Yankee fan?  Nevermind.)  Ok.  I might be taking that a bit far, but it's only for effect.  If the Yankees fans let Jeter go, they would feel angry, confused, and betrayed.  There's no way around it.  To Yankee fans, Jeter is infallible.

On the flip side, just one year after putting up an MVP quality season (7.1 WAR in 2009), Jeter really showed his age in 2010 (2.5 WAR).  He posted a below average wOBA for the first time in his career (.320); saw his isolated power (ISO) drop to a career low .100; and saw his defense go from above average (+6.4 UZR in 2009) to below average (-4.7 UZR in 2010).  So what changed between 2009 and 2010?  I'm not entirely sure.  I suspect that Jeter may've benefited from a little bit of luck in 2009.  If you look at his last four seasons (2007-2010), it becomes pretty clear that 2009 was the outlier season. 

                 wOBA        wRAA       UZR       WAR
2007           .369            22.8        -17.9        3.5
2008           .343             8.4         -0.3          3.7
2009           .390            36.6         6.4          7.1
2010           .320            -0.8         -4.7         2.5

Somehow, Jeter managed to buck the trends of Father Time, and put together an MVP season during his age-35 season despite the fact he was in apparent state of decline.  So how did he do it?  Well, one thing that helped him was moving to the new Yankee Stadium, which in 2009 was a home run launching pad.  Jeter, a classic opposite field hitter, used the jet stream blowing out to right field to poke a few extra balls out of the field of play.  Want proof?  In 2009, Jeter put up a HR/FB rate of 14.6%.  In the other three seasons of our four season sample size, he put up rates of 9.3%, 9.0%, and 9.9% (starting with 2007).  Jeter's 2010 rate of 9.9% was nothing other than a simple regression to the mean.  Another reason for Jeter's home run decline was due to the rate he was hitting ground balls--a career high 65.7%.  It's incredibly difficult to hit the ball out of the park when you're pounding into the ground at such a high rate.

Jeter also seemed to be helped by a slightly elevated batting average on balls in play (.368 versus a career of .356) in 2009.  His success in BABIP is though justifiable because Jeter hit line drives on 20.3% his batted balls (line drive BABIP tends to be around .720).  In 2010, he showed significant regression in this area, posting a .307 BABIP.  So what happened?  Well, for one, Jeter's line drive rate dropped to a career low 16.1% (data only going back to 2002), while his ground ball rate soared from 57% to 65% (as I discussed above).  Jeter has always possessed plus-speed.  He's leveraged his speed over the years by purposely hitting the ball on the ground.  As a result, Jeter was able to beat out many throws to first, where most of his counterparts could not.  This resulted in additional hits.  Speed (like all skills) regresses over time.  It's likely that Jeter's speed has deteriorated to the point where he's not going to be able to prop up his batting average and on-base percentage using this strategy.  Assuming he doesn't change his strategy, this deterioration in skills will continue to get worse, thereby causing further performance regression.

This brings us back to his contract situation.  He's just completed a huge 10 year $189M contract that paid him $22.6M in 2010.  How do you tell the face of the franchise that's only one season away from an MVP-caliber campaign that it's time to take a huge pay cut?  Fangraphs Dave Cameron posted an article a few weeks back asking readers to provide input on Jeter's expected contract.  He followed it up with a second article providing the results.  Based on voting, the average length was 3.38 years at $14.91M per season.  The interesting information comes in the standard deviation.  While it appears most fans agreed that his next contract would be of the three or four year variety, they really seemed to disagree on average annual salary (standard deviation of $4.2M), with salaries ranging from $4M to $25M.  My thoughts are that Jeter will likely see a contract somewhere in the 4 year $60M contract with a fifth year option.  To sweeten the pot (Jeter will be taking a pay cut of $4M in terms of average annual salary after all), I believe the Yankees will offer him a small stake in club ownership after he retires.  This will not only allow him to continue to collecting salary from the Yankees for years after his career ends, but it will also allow him to be a Yankee for life.

This begs the question, will he be worth his projected contract?  In one word, no.  At least not in terms of on field performance.  Taking his average WAR over the past four seasons (16.8 total, 4.2 average), and regressing for age (0.5 WAR for the first two years of his contract, and 0.75 WAR for years three and four), Jeter will be worth 11.1 WAR over the life of his contract.  Assuming a 5% increase in the value of a win on the free agent market over each of the next four seasons, Jeter's performance will be worth approximately $48M.  Clearly, this falls 20% below the value of his projected $60M contact.  Considering Jeter's stature with the franchise, this seems like a semi-reasonable premium.  If the Yankees are smart, they'll start discussing a position move with Jeter during his contract negotiations.  Moving him to a less physically demanding defensive position, could elevate his value while adding longevity to his career.  If this happens, he may be able to live up to his next contract.

Giants Win the Pennant!

No, last night's game wasn't as exciting as Bobby Thompson's "Shot Heard 'Round the World," but it was pretty exciting.  Going into the playoffs, Philadelphia was easily the odds on favorite to take on home the Commissioner's Trophy this October.  Instead, they lost to a team most picked to finish fourth out of five in their own division.*  Don't get me wrong, the Giants have a tremendous starting pitching staff.  Any rotation that's strong enough to have Barry Zito as their number five starter is going to be pretty stacked.  No one disputes this.  The question about the Giants was whether or not they would score enough runs to win consistently.  To an extent they did (697 runs scored, good for ninth in the NL), but that's primarily because of their unbelievable success in run prevention--number one in runs allowed (583 runs) and number four in Defensive Efficiency at 70.9%.  How the Giants got to this point, is pretty immaterial.  They got here, and that's really all that matters.
  
* Full disclosure:  Prior to the start of the season, I predicted a Phillies-Yankees World Series rematch, with the Phillies winning in seven games.  Also, I predicted the Giants would finish fourth in the NL West ahead of only the lowly Padres.  While, I was right that the Giants would finish ahead of the Padres, I didn't realize that they would finish 1-2 in the division.  Oops...my bad!

So, now we have our World Series match-up complete.  The Texas Rangers, led by Cliff Lee and Josh Hamilton, will appear in the World Series for the first time in their franchise's history.  The San Francisco Giants, led by Tim Lincecum and Buster Posey, will return to the Fall Classic for the first time since the height of the Barry Bonds-era (2002) with the goal of winning their first World Series since 1954--three years before the Giants left New York for the left coast.  It should be an exciting series for most baseball fans--albeit one dominated by great pitching performances and low scoring games.  Both teams seem to be pretty evenly matched, which means there's a chance we could see a seven game series.  In fact, I'll go out on a limb, and predict a seven games series.  I give the slight edge to the Rangers based on two things:  (1) their ability to score runs in bunches, and (2) they have Cliff Lee.

Just one final note to Dodger fans out there.  Since the Dodgers won the World Series in 1988, the Giants have made it to the World Series three times (1989, 2002, 2010), while the Dodgers haven't come within three wins of the Fall Classic.  Just some food for thought...